Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I like this date and strike combo. It's well below the markets upper limit for the next pop and there are at least 3 potential breakout triggers. I still stand by Battery Day as being the monster. Some shits gonna be said that day that will shock the market and reset algos.

I was a little more conservative and had targeted July. I figured that it would allow me time to let a good Q2 help if Q1 was soft. (which is looking less likely)

But people are not going to stop earning, or spending money. they just wont do it in large crowds. It would be different if people actually thought this virus would kill off 100 million productive members of the workforce, but no...ironically its most risky for the elderly and sick, who are technically an economic drain!

I worry about the average American's ability to absorb a couple days off work. If schools and businesses close, people will lose paychecks. If that happens then you can see recessionary spiral. I'm not betting in either direction right now. Too many unknowns.

 

[lklundin]

Our Electric Future is No!

Does anyone see the four table legs? Each wheel has a post as well. Not one thing about the display is sincere.

CU "battery".

Yes, while it will surely happen to many one should not be deceived by that BEV drive train.

We here all know that while superficially similar GM's arrangement of wheels and prototype parts has nothing to do with the Model S drive train that is exhibited in many Tesla stores.

What Tesla shows the public in its stores is an actual drive train that has been in production for 8 years, while GM is merely conveying how they think the drive train of their BEV line will look.

So GM's presentation is very bullish - for Tesla.

 

[StealthP3D]

Does anyone have an intelligent guess about how Tesla stock would act in a mild recession?

TSLA share prices will be reactionary to whatever is out there. As soon as relevant new information comes to light, it will react to that also. I think the numbers and news in the pipeline will shine a very positive light on TSLA. This is a stock that can move from $700 to $1100 faster than you can say (with a straight face) "GM has brilliant leadership". OK, that's not saying much, but let's just say it can move fast and leave this trip as but a distant memory.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I've been trying to think back to the swine flu reaction in 2009; I don't remember it eliciting this strong of a reaction despite infecting (and killing) significant numbers of Americans - 59 million and 12,000, respectively, according to CDC. Is my memory just hazy?

MOD-EDIT:
One of the things your memory definitely is hazy on is your inability to remember this isn't a chat thread. If there is something about, for example, swine flu ==>that is apposite to this thread<== then GO AND GOOGLE the stuff you're thinking important, and report it here.

DO NOT USE THIS THREAD AND ITS MEMBERS TO DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH ON BASIC STUFF!

 

[Nocturnal]

I've been trying to think back to the swine flu reaction in 2009; I don't remember it eliciting this strong of a reaction despite infecting (and killing) significant numbers of Americans - 59 million and 12,000, respectively, according to CDC. Is my memory just hazy?

Social media didn't exist back then to amplify concerns and spread fear. Or if you want to be generous, social media didn't exist to inform people on the actual dangers.

TSLA share prices will be reactionary to whatever is out there. As soon as relevant new information comes to light, it will react to that also. I think the numbers and news in the pipeline will shine a very positive light on TSLA. This is a stock that can move from $700 to $1100 faster than you can say (with a straight face) "GM has brilliant leadership". OK, that's not saying much, but let's just say it can move fast and leave this trip as but a distant memory.

That's been more general thought process, but I'm just not knowledgeable enough about how companies that are still growing and doing well react in general recessions. Seems like enough people will be trying to dig for gold that a company like Tesla might be seen as a safe haven.

 

[Joe F]

Our Electric Future is No!

Does anyone see the four table legs? Each wheel has a post as well. Not one thing about the display is sincere.

CU "battery".


View attachment 518777

GM should have just displayed a mockup made of Legos.

 

[mulder1231]

This stock market action is delusional. people are absolutely out of their minds. This virus is nowhere even CLOSE to as dangerous as climate change, yet we continue to drive ICE cars, fly in planes domestically, eat too much meat and leas incredibly destructive lifestyles. But the moment someone wears a hazmat suit on a TV news report, everybody starts stabbing each other over toilet rolls. Its nuts. No wonder teslas stock price is hard to predict, most of the people trading it are idiots!

I'm just holding. I'll try not to look at my stock for the next week, and hope some adults show up to calm things down.

In the Bay Area, more and more companies are advising employees to work from home. Conferences and events are being canceled and going digital. Social media is the new happy hour.

 

[gene]

But the moment someone wears a hazmat suit on a TV news report, everybody starts stabbing each other over toilet rolls. Its nuts.

I am setting up a lemonade style stand in front of my house. Toilet paper $.25 per square!

 

[lascavarian]

Toilet paper $.25 per square!

Whole sheets.... you rich!

 

[traxila]

In a rational market right now:

The overall market should be down... a bit.
All home leisure related stocks should rocket up as people stay at home, so neflix UP, Amazon UP, all video game stocks UP, all TV stations and ISPs UP.
All car company stock should be up as people plan to avoid public transport in future.
Sure, airline stocks down, theme parks down, football teams down, and so on...

But people are not going to stop earning, or spending money. they just wont do it in large crowds. It would be different if people actually thought this virus would kill off 100 million productive members of the workforce, but no...ironically its most risky for the elderly and sick, who are technically an economic drain!

You are forgetting the overall trends. The market was overbought and crying for a correction. Anything that made it turn would have made it turn hard. I think TSLA is doing terrific. Given the market. Wish it would go down more actually....stand ready to add. I think a lot of people are.

 

[Rammstein]

I would guess that 90% of the participants on this board use the market as a casino. Flipping stock and trading options are not ownership of the company. I.e., 10% are real owners of (investors in) the company. JMO.


Edit: It might actually be closer to 95%-5%

I don’t think so. From what I’ve read here is most have a majority of their shares as very longterm and some shares for trading short term.

 

[Nocturnal]

I don’t think so. From what I’ve read here is most have a majority of their shares as very longterm and some shares for trading short term.

Yeah I think that's the norm. My trading shares are only about 1/10th of my Tesla holdings, plus about 1/10th of my value in options.

 

[EVNow]

This stock market action is delusional. people are absolutely out of their minds. This virus is nowhere even CLOSE to as dangerous as climate change, yet we continue to drive ICE cars, fly in planes domestically, eat too much meat and leas incredibly destructive lifestyles.

Well, its the time horizon. Few people think they will get personally affected by climate change. Obviously we won't be in a recession this year because of climate change - but may be because of CV-19.

 

[DrMazeppa]

So, close at $701 today?

 

[Kenypowa]

Haven't seen this posted yet, but Tesla Taiwan raised the Model 3 SR+ price by 50,000 TWD ($1670 USD) and by 60,000 TWD ($2000 USD) for the LR and Performance models.

The demand for Model 3 is very strong and we are just getting started.

 

[EL0NTRK]

anyone has any idea why Audi AUDVF seems to be the only auto maker not be effected by the wider market drop?

 

[Highway2Heel]

GM should have just displayed a mockup made of Legos.

Then let Will Arnett destroy it...

 

[KSilver2000]

This stock market action is delusional. people are absolutely out of their minds. This virus is nowhere even CLOSE to as dangerous as climate change, yet we continue to drive ICE cars, fly in planes domestically, eat too much meat and leas incredibly destructive lifestyles. But the moment someone wears a hazmat suit on a TV news report, everybody starts stabbing each other over toilet rolls. Its nuts. No wonder teslas stock price is hard to predict, most of the people trading it are idiots.

I’m probably going to be preaching to the choir with this post.

The level of response by humans to an event is highly associated with how it could affect their daily lives. The closer it hits home and the more one has to lose, the more panicked s/he will be.
For many, it’s not just because they’re just seeing people with hazmat suites on TV. These people know or live close to a case.
Unfortunately, we don’t get the same reaction to things like climate change or pollution because it hasn’t caused a significant change to our daily lives just yet. But, once it starts affecting a greater population or those in charge of making puvlic policy, you’ll definitely see the response as with this virus.

And it’s not just with TSLA, the majority of stocks are behaving similarly.

 

[StealthP3D]

That's been more general thought process, but I'm just not knowledgeable enough about how companies that are still growing and doing well react in general recessions. Seems like enough people will be trying to dig for gold that a company like Tesla might be seen as a safe haven.

I said this a few days ago but I'll say it again because I have a pretty high conviction about it.

Tesla will be one of the first to recover and that is ignoring any and all good news in the pipeline. Fear of the Coronavirus has shaken up the markets and many people have rightfully divested themselves of directly impacted industries like airlines, oil, travel, restaurants, car rental, etc. That means there is a lot of investable capital on the sidelines that will be looking for a new home.

Investors will want to re-position themselves into more forward-looking investments. TSLA fits the bill and will find many new buyers as portfolios churn. If this thing drags on we have Q1 numbers to look forward to. I think they will be good enough that people will say "If TSLA can do this well while being so close to the early Coronavirus epicenter, just imagine what they will do without Coronavirus!".

 

[saniflash]

anyone has any idea why Audi AUDVF seems to be the only auto maker not be effected by the wider market drop?

maybe because of the squeeze out by VWAG