Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Well, I'd say if you look at the order, you'll see:
10.f For the purposes of this Order, “Essential Businesses” means:
...... vi. Gas stations and auto-supply, auto-repair, and related facilities;
...... xv. Businesses that supply other essential businesses with the support or supplies necessary to operate;

So it's not unreasonable to argue that Tesla body shops and service centers are covered by part 10.f.vi and (at least some operations at) the factory are covered by 10.f.xv. I don't see how you can get to actually manufacturing new cars at the factory, but there's endless wiggle room provided by:
12. This Order shall become effective at 12:01 a.m. on March 17, 2020 and will continue to be in effect until 11:59 p.m. on April 7, 2020, or until it is extended, rescinded, superseded, or amended in writing by the Health Officer.

Perhaps the order was extended or amended in writing by the Health Officer. Nobody is saying at this point.

Why would there be any need to 'extend' or 'amend' the order? Fremont is explicitly listed as "essential business", you even quoted the relevant part:

For the purposes of this Order, “Essential Businesses” means:

"auto-supply [...] and related facilities"​

You cannot supply cars without a car factory. The wording is crystal clear.

Furthermore a spokesperson of the county confirmed that Tesla's Fremont factory is exempt.

(I'm sorry about your puts if you own any. )

 

[LJS22]

FYI - been told the factory is still running 24/7 with no intention to slow or stop. Was actually told there was a federal law prohibiting the government from forcing auto manufacturers to shut down for any reason (I can't find the statute, just relaying what I was told as the reason the plant will not shut down).

Deliveries in Europe are also progressing well and they have shifted in appropriate countries to having customers go directly to the parking lot, find their car via the app, and drop off their paperwork at a kiosk (i.e. no human contact).

Not that a quarter actually matters in the long run, but my sense is that this quarter is shaping up to be very strong and forward looking demand is also quite strong. I am sure you will have plenty of (primarily sell-rated analysts) coming out ahead of the delivery results claiming Tesla is about to post a significant miss, seeing supply disruptions, demand disruptions, etc. but I think Tesla will blow away these estimates. But what's new.

Whatever Jeff Osbourne at Cowen comes out with as his completely asinine estimate, you're probably safe adding 20-30k units to that number to forecast what the actual result will be.

Usually they move expectations higher so Tesla will miss. So if analyst want to go low then that's fine. Although, I believe the concern from analyst is primarily around Q2. I'm hoping a strong Q1 will add some momentum to Q2 though. Regardless, if Tesla sells 500k cars this year the headlines will be "Elon Musk reaches goal with Tesla but at what cost" haha

 

[Prunesquallor]

...
If the Fremont plant stays open, what can anyone do about that? The legal process could take months for a forced closure, and I bet he does allow folks to stay onsite as a backup plan... in tents if need be. Suppliers are a separate concern so maybe it's paramount to finish Q1 whole for S&P then deal with Q2 separately. I'm with Elon because I've never hidden from illness ever. I was raised a poor, dirty kid on a farm full of cats and rats, bathed once a week, all 6 kids, we caught everything.

....

I like the thinking on prioritizing S&P. That may be a way to get the shorts and hedges to let up to a degree and help Q2 if the virus situation drags on.

 

[SOULPEDL]

They got downgraded to BBB, one level above junk.

Although it's more about the Max I'm sure, but I've often wondered what Boeing knew about rockets for NASA? Ever since NASA had Boeing and SpaceX compete for humans in space, it's been no competition. As if NASA just needed a second contractor bidding so it didn't appear rigged and adds leverage.

I like the thinking on prioritizing S&P. That may be a way to get the shorts and hedges to let up to a degree and help Q2 if the virus situation drags on.

A loss in Q2 would be favorable over Q1. Everyone else would likely be missing in Q2 as well. But Q1 miss and Tesla's all we'd hear about.

 

[Dutchie]

Don't panic

 

[SOULPEDL]

They got downgraded to BBB, one level above junk.

Although it's more about the Max I'm sure, but I've often wondered what Boeing knew about rockets for NASA? Ever since NASA had Boeing and SpaceX compete for humans in space, it's been no match really. As if NASA just needed a second contractor bidding so the prices wouldn't go crazy.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Although it's more about the Max I'm sure, but I've often wondered what Boeing knew about rockets for NASA? Ever since NASA had Boeing and SpaceX compete for humans in space, it's been no competition. As if NASA just needed a second contractor bidding so it didn't appear rigged and adds leverage.

No, NASA wants (at least) two domestic suppliers for rides to orbit. If there's only one and there's extended down-time due to a problem/accident with the launch vehicle or spacecraft, we're back to depending on the Russians again.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I am sure you will have plenty of (primarily sell-rated analysts) coming out ahead of the delivery results claiming Tesla is about to post a significant miss, seeing supply disruptions, demand disruptions, etc. xxx but I think Tesla will blow away these estimates. But what's new.

Exactly when I might buy back some of my shares (xxx)!

 

[Fact Checking]

FWIW, in Frankfurt TSLA is currently trading at around €430, which is around $478.

 

[RobStark]

 

[MC3OZ]

I know people think Corona is the CAUSE of this market sell off but imho it was the needle that popped the bubble but the cause(bubble) has been building for for many years now....I think what's going on is about leverage/debt getting out of control and natures way of deleveraging/deflating this bubble.

1. many people who understand that the bond/treasury mkt's are actually a lot larger than the entirety of the equity mat's have sensed and known something was wrong for the past 6 months...last weeks treasury auction of the 30 year showing 100 basis point differences is like TSLA showing a bid/ask of 435 x 455...this tells me there is no liquidity in this mkt...I have never seen ES(futures) showing a bid and ask ration of 1:10000 before...we were so levered that this drop in the mkt's are causing a liquidity crunch every bit as bad as 2008...thats the reason gold and bitcoin are getting hammered as these truly are liquid assets that people actually own without it being tied up in easy financial instruments...people are freeing up cash quickly and gold and bitcoin suffering but this just a symptom of the disease.

2. people think the Fed's have infinite power but you can see faith in the Fed's waning right before your eyes...in 2008 every time the Fed's announced QEW or etc, the mkts rallied hard even if it within the context of a rip your face off bear mkt rally...this time around there is no respect for the Fed's..the 1.5T news from last eek got sold within 15 minutes...last night 700B in section caused the futures mtk to go limit down...the Fed's will not fix this situation...cause at some point you can't buy your way out of debt with more debt although it did work to some degree in 2008-9, but in reality it didnt.

For example, many jobs were lost in 2008 and eventually as the Fed's expanded their balance sheet from 800B to 4T, jobs slowly came back but who do you think paid that bill...with money expansion come inflation whether you realize it not...this is the hidden pain and misery....losing jobs is more obvious and acutely painful, the inflation is the slow grind...do you wonder why rent for apps have doubled and tripled over the past decade?...wonder why 2-3 people live together now and many live with other family members?...why many young people with college degrees have jobs in fields in which they didnt study and have to work 2 jobs to survive now?..its all related.

3. Consumer debt went by 10T over the past 2-3 years...you have doctors and lawyers trying to be land developers just like 2005 before the RE bubble...you have small business owners trying to build 200 unit apt complexes...this in my mind is the definition of a top...you have HF's levered up to record levels just last month...you have banks levering up putting up equities as collateral in the repo mkt trying to free up liquidity cause they lent out all of our money.

I dont think people realize when you deposit money in a bank you are actually giving it to them...they have a legal obligation to give it back to you when you ask for it but what if they are in a crunch from bad decisions?...you prob think your TSLA shares at your brokerage is actually yours...well its not, its legally theirs now...they have an legal obligation to give it back to you or trade it and settle it for you but they actually own it....the FDIC is super stable when you dont need them, but if you truly do , you can be damn sure the instability and inadequacy will be obvious...and if things go really south, if you think the Govt can print IOU's fast enough and Fed's send their 0's over to the govt reliably you dont understand how precarious the debt mkt is right now...watch dogs that watch this stuff closely are calling out defcon 3 right now...not saying these auctions will fail, but its teetering now....I see this situation like how you saw toilet paper a few weeks ago at your safeway....at first glance everything looks like business as usual and normal, but underneath the surface something isn't right.

4. I know I have been harping UBI a lot lately but this is the only thing I can see helping the avg Joe for what's coming over the next 6 months...I think this will be a significant recession now...even in 2008 most people were still spending money but actually closing stores and restaurants will have devastating effects on small business(many will go under) and the millions that will either lose jobs or will be underemployed...QE 14 isn't going help mom and pop in the acute setting...but UBI will...at least if your going to raise the national debt and cause inflation, give the money to the masses and not the banking elite....have you not noticed over there past week more and more people have been talking about in social media and in Washington DC??...momo building every day for this.


I have a weird feeling one day when recovery happens assets like bitcoin will really rise...we need to think about the the value of the dollar(the denominator) when we think about asset prices...the ratio defines value...I say all this stuff not to scare anyone or freak people out, its just something to think about and better prepare for the future...we will bounce back undoubtably, but the next crisis will be bigger than this one and some point in the future, this fiat system will truly be broken and will not be fixable(hopefully not in my life time but maybe so)

Sorry for all the typos and tangential thoughts but too late in the night the proof read....GL in the mkt's over the next 3 months...I am bit sad we(mkt's) broke down today cause it has big implications for the next 3 months....but with the great flush comes great opportunity for the ones who are prepared and ready...just be ready when its time.

The future will be different, but Tesla is a big part of the future.

My personal valuation for Bitcoin is $0, I have no interest in ever owning Bitcoin, and no need to ever own it..others can value it as they see fit.

I say Tesla because Tesla is quality, with a big future, and that matters..

I agree there are asset bubbles, for starters there are $50 Trillion worth of fossil fuel assets that will become stranded assets way faster than most people realise... we are talking transfer of wealth, usually from the undeserving to the more deserving, on a massive scale here.

The future will be so different it is hard for us to imagine today, and the future of work is a big open question. IMO we need space exploration and settlement just to keep everyone in a job. And/or we may need UBI with rewarding work being it's own reward.

So at this stage of the cycle you need to work out what you want to be invested in in future...don't buy based on price, buy based on research and a clear vision of where we are likely to be heading.

The macro environment doesn't turn mud into gold, or gold to mud, .when the dust settles mud is still mud, and gold is still gold.

 

[Pras]

FYI - been told the factory is still running 24/7 with no intention to slow or stop. Was actually told there was a federal law prohibiting the government from forcing auto manufacturers to shut down for any reason (I can't find the statute, just relaying what I was told as the reason the plant will not shut down).

Deliveries in Europe are also progressing well and they have shifted in appropriate countries to having customers go directly to the parking lot, find their car via the app, and drop off their paperwork at a kiosk (i.e. no human contact).

Not that a quarter actually matters in the long run, but my sense is that this quarter is shaping up to be very strong and forward looking demand is also quite strong. I am sure you will have plenty of (primarily sell-rated analysts) coming out ahead of the delivery results claiming Tesla is about to post a significant miss, seeing supply disruptions, demand disruptions, etc. but I think Tesla will blow away these estimates. But what's new.

Whatever Jeff Osbourne at Cowen comes out with as his completely asinine estimate, you're probably safe adding 20-30k units to that number to forecast what the actual result will be.

Contactless car shopping and buying should be publicized. If at Tesla should have an advertisement / promotion it seems now. At least a twitter video.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Renault temporarily halts operations in Spain

 

[Thekiwi]

Finally, something I can agree to here regarding the factory shutdown. First off, I get the flattening curve need. But like the stock market, our medical system is also rigged and manipulated for pure profit. So if people die, in part because they don't have a ventilator or ICU, then someone will be taken to court. Can't prove it yet... but believable. And last I checked, there is no cure. So what are they doing that's so critical everyone gets a bed? Reminds me of Corporate Training and Butts in Seat as the metric. Close to a Trillion dollar infusion into the medical industry. I'd say their industry is booming. The plan is perfect - feed people poisons, remove nutrition, treat them with chemicals, cash in, create more illness, rinse and repeat. And you thought the viruses were getting stronger?
...

Not sure if you are actually serious, but a ventilator & ICU care helps the very sick people breathe while giving the body time to try and fight off the virus. Without a ventilator, these people die.

Not having enough ventilators and ICU beds leads to a lot more people dying.

 

[Fact Checking]

That's not the worst of it! I've been having trouble making elbow contact while maintaining the recommended six feet of separation!

Maintain six feet of horizontal separation temporarily, to avoid a permanent six feet separation vertically!

 

[lklundin]

We need a statement from Tesla re if the factory will be closed or not. Alternatively can someone local contact the authority to ask if Fremont is closing or not.

With the situation being pretty fluid, I prefer if Tesla just focus on providing their safe cars to the public while keeping their staff safe.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Renault temporarily halts operations in Spain

all renault factories are closed (spain and france)

 

[Fact Checking]

No, NASA wants (at least) two domestic suppliers for rides to orbit. If there's only one and there's extended down-time due to a problem/accident with the launch vehicle or spacecraft, we're back to depending on the Russians again.

NASA wasn't concerned about a single supplier when Boeing/ULA was the only supplier. From a single SLS launch cost they could purchase about 10-20 Falcon 9 launches, and they could finance the entire Starship program if they wanted an independent launch system (which Starship is).

So I'll be less generous there: the NASA budget is largely controlled by senators, who want Boeing pork.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

VW to halt European car production for two weeks
Car giant VW is to suspend production at its plants in Europe amid the coronavirus outbreak.
Production will be halted at Spanish plants, in Setubal in Portugal, Bratislava in Slovakia and at the Lamborghini and Ducati plants in Italy before the end of this week, VW’s chief executive said, Reuters reported.
Most of the other German and European plants will begin preparing to suspend production, probably for two to three weeks, VW said.
Coronavirus live updates: VW to halt European car production for two weeks
German article via google translate

 

[RobStark]

GM Will Offer No-Interest Loans as Part of Coronavirus Aid Plan