Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pras]

Seems Giga Berlin is moving along well. Earth work going on and soon we may start to see construction.

Giga Berlin / Gigafactory 4 on Twitter

 

[JBRR]

Ford to stop it's dividend.

CNBC talking about how looks like Tesla is in the best liquidity situation of all the US autos... Oh how the tables have turned

 

[MartinAustin]

...and... TSLA has jumped $15 in pre-market

Where is that Moody's upgrade...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Isn't it funny that many shorts were pushed out on the way up, with a (huge) loss. And now that they could have profited from the TSLA drop many of them are without a short position. That has to hurt.

 

[dl003]

I don't disagree, but it was never looking hopeless to me. But as far as your experimental drugs... well, I have friends that did that in the 1960's, and it didn't seem to do them much good...

Shouldn't discussions of when prices will recover include a discussion of oil prices? That's probably a bigger factor than the virus in the recent drops, no?

I meant hopeless as in hope for a corrective course of action. We knew lockdowns had to end but we didn't know when and how. Now we think we know. "Maybe if we make enough ventilators, not as many people have to die" "Maybe if we get checks we won't be out on the streets" It's still just maybe but it gives people hope that'll last at least till hospitals are overrun. This is where I place my hope. That the US will not be like Italy. I need some of that exp. drugs right about now.

 

[Unpilot]

So Elon used to say only two car company's have not gone bankrupt...that will be one soon.

 

[vikings123]

Isn't it funny that many shorts were pushed out on the way up, with a (huge) loss. And now that they could have profited from the TSLA drop many of them are without a short position. That has to hurt.

I'm pretty sure some of them got back in. I think we might be seeing some of the shorts covering today based on the pre-market action.

 

[sparcs]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but lowering the factory from 10k to 2500 workers may have a bright spot in the end. If Tesla is able to find ways to be even more efficient, they may find they can produce half as many cars with 1/4 the workforce. It's a good opportunity to get more lean, and discover which jobs/people are not really needed.

We don't know if Tesla will be producing any cars out of Fremont soon. They are talking about a step down of employees to 2500. The Sheriff may be insisting that car production would violate the orders from the local authorities. The only way to know is if people are seeing factory output in the parking lots there. I doubt Tesla is going to advertise that they are producing vehicles.

Suppliers are going to ramp down too so that will take some time to ramp back up. It's hard to put a great short term spin on this of any kind. Just be glad we have long time horizons on the stock. Last year was way worse for TSLA than this.

 

[Fact Checking]

Will we get tree-fiddy again?

Just for the sake of old times?

(Just kidding. Direction looks good so far.)

 

[electracity]

CNBC talking about how looks like Tesla is in the best liquidity situation of all the US autos... Oh how the tables have turned

Telsa could very well emerge in a stronger relative competitive position. But for the next few years their position will still be like being the healthiest inmate at the leaper colony. Amazon, on the other hand, has critically important businesses today - sales and delivery of necessary goods, AWS, and even Audible. Has an almost unlimited market with the ability to easy hire new employees.

 

[Bunky]

What should not be done is shut down the global economy. Because there is a cost on the head of every individual, an actuarial cost of life, and - in countless fields - money is literally exchanged for human lives based on the values chosen. If you shut down the global economy, you rob the money supply, and in turn, you kill people. A normal year sees 58 million deaths. To any of these "full shutdown" people, I ask, how much do you want to crank that number up by destroying the global economy?

To put it another way: how does the quality and longevity of life look in, say, Haiti? Or Afghanistan? Or the Republic of Congo? And even they have some economic activity ongoing.

There is however a huge difference between "not shutting down the global economy" and "doing nothing". There should be onerous requirements on companies about sterilization and social distancing of employees. If a company cannot afford to do them, then yes, that company should be shut down. But if the financial activity justifies the isolation costs, then no, it shouldn't be.

I'm deeply bothered by the fact that people seem to be focused on the wrong issues. Shutting down companies where there's proportionally low risks of transmission? Yes, at the drop of a hat! Doing nothing about people cramming into lines at grocery stores, or long crowded "CDC health survey lines" at airports, or all of the people who don't have to work crowding at parks, beaches, etc, or hosting block parties? For god's sake, put your effort into policing that sort of thing, not shutting down the global economy.

Totally agree. The estimated economic impact of this could be up to $3 trillion based on estimates I’ve seen. At 9,285 deaths so far, that is about $320 million per death. Each death is tragic but something has gone terribly wrong here in terms of preparedness and reaction. (Example for context, numbers are a snapshot).

 

[KarenRei]

Ford to stop it's dividend.

Ford's stock falls as dividend likely to be suspended, analyst says

"BREAKING: Ford Motor to borrow $15.4B to offset production shutdown, company suspend dividend and withdraws guidance for 2020."

$FQ

 

[Johnny Ma]

I'm deeply bothered by the fact that people seem to be focused on the wrong issues. Shutting down companies where there's proportionally low risks of transmission? Yes, at the drop of a hat! Doing nothing about people cramming into lines at grocery stores, or long crowded "CDC health survey lines" at airports, or all of the people who don't have to work crowding at parks, beaches, etc, or hosting block parties? For god's sake, put your effort into policing that sort of thing, not shutting down the global economy.

One of my worries is that we will look back when this is over and all of the politicians and folks promoting panic will declare victory because of their actions. In my area, panic created enormous crowds in grocery stores and people spent way more time around strangers, in close contact than they normally do. I don't know how to quantify it, but I believe transmission was greatly increased for the first few days.

My point is, I fear we won't learn from our mistakes.

 

[JRP3]

Uncle Jack is back in the market. Says everyone is freaking out over nothing and stocks will shoot back up quickly when we get tired of hearing about the flu.

Jack proving once again that he can be a real idiot at times.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Ford to stop it's dividend.

Ford's stock falls as dividend likely to be suspended, analyst says

When will it be shorted? 3.2.1...

 

[Krugerrand]

My understanding is that they also have to have some other medical issue, or smoke. Personally, I'm counting on the 50+ minutes of rowing five days a week (so far no shortness of breath) to keep me healthy (along with masks, frequent hand washing, and going only to the the grocery store--though I will violate this to pick up the new X).

Yes, of course underlying conditions. I should have included smoking - older population that smokes - to more accurately describe the reality of the situation in Italy’s population when being sarcastic in my post.

Funny, I’ve chosen the torture machine known as Bowflex to check my Covid-19 status. So far there’s a lot of medical issues, but not shortness of breath.

 

[Unpilot]

Yes, of course underlying conditions. I should have included smoking - older population that smokes - to more accurately describe the reality of the situation in Italy’s population when being sarcastic in my post.

Funny, I’ve chosen the torture machine known as Bowflex to check my Covid-19 status. So far there’s a lot of medical issues, but not shortness of breath.

I only have shortness of breath when I check SP...or get around cat's.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Jack should get more credits.
His analysis of $TSLA has been spot on during the past months.

Meanwhile, the perfect contrarian did this:
View attachment 523364

Spot-on as always! What a waste of oxygen...

Thinking about the not-a-shutdown at Fremont... Indeed, unlikely to impact Q1 that much as overseas already long gone and local US inventory can be run down to zero.

Regarding Q2, given that Fremont is battery-constrained, can't they just stockpile batteries/packs from GF1 until production resumes, then just ramp up ca production when it resumes?

Nice to see a bit of green this morning and what's that, a traditional MMD, how quaint!

Also WFH since the beginning of the week, but super-busy, probably worse than being in the office. Have been told this will continue until 3rd April at the earliest.

I just have to be thankful that I have a job that keeps paying in these difficult times, as does the wife.

Edit: 102 deliveries in Norway yesterday (bless them and splash them) 98% M3 or which 90% LR, 7% P, 3% SR+

 

[9837264723849]

I panicked. Sold all my shares @ 557 (cost price was around $200, accumulated since 2012). I trust that Tesla will be reinforced by the recession (being far better position for the future than its competitor) but I fear that the financial market can't correctly assess how much trouble the Western countries will fare in a lock down situation. I intend to fully repurchase my share as soon as I think the governments get a good grasp on the situation. Sorry for the anecdote but had to share my (bearish) opinion as I did comment bullishly in the past. And good luck to all my friends here who bought my shares at a good price. Peace.

Just for the sake of transparency: I bought everything back on Tuesday at $455. I'll be paying a big bag of tax next year. I hope this will go to the public hospital, and not to the fossil fuel industry or ICE manufacturers via some ****ed up bailout plans.

 

[Prunesquallor]

CNBC talking about how looks like Tesla is in the best liquidity situation of all the US autos... Oh how the tables have turned

Watch for that signal...