Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson has a BUY rating on Tesla and raised the price target to $420 in December. He replaced Efraim Levy who was a long time Tesla bear.

Tomorrow at 11 am EST, CFRA will conduct a webinar on its stock appreciation ranking system and portfolio performance. You can register at: STARS Portfolios and Model Portfolios

You can then participate in a Q&A session. They’ve always answered at least one of my questions.

Just to make clear to others, since this confused me at first glance: you're noting that the upgrade happened in December, and this post is just announcing the webinar. Aka, this isn't a new upgrade (not market-moving).

Should we be short-term scared of what Musk may have done on meme review?

 

[Curt Renz]

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson has a BUY rating on Tesla and raised the price target to $420 in December. He replaced Efraim Levy who was a long time Tesla bear.

Tomorrow at 11 am EST, CFRA will conduct a webinar on its stock appreciation ranking system and portfolio performance. You can register at: STARS Portfolios and Model Portfolios

You can then participate in a Q&A session. They’ve always answered at least one of my questions.

Just to make clear to others, since this confused me at first glance: you're noting that the upgrade happened in December, and this post is just announcing the webinar. Aka, this isn't a new upgrade (not market-moving). ...

Yes. I mentioned the analyst's bullish outlook for Tesla, because it may elevate the probability that Tesla will be discussed in either the main presentation or the Q&A session

 

[ggr]

Deliveries in Germany are starting, but there are still growing pains.
I got to see my new M3P:

View attachment 378571


Could not drive it home yet, because the invoice was missing. I paid the amount anyway, hoping Tesla will sort it out. Tonight I finally got the invoice. I am a professional accountant, and I hate to pay anything without a proper invoice. OTOH Tesla has a lot of money for the next gen Roadster from me - without much documentation.

Now I am waiting for the registration papers. Date for car pick up is now Wednesday 14.00 in Nuremberg.

The lot was full of M3 waiting for delivery. The store was not very full with people. My impression, it will take a few more days and then the cars will really start moving.

Can I just mention that it bugs me that you have badging and a spoiler, and I (4.5 months after delivery) do not? Not your fault, I know...

 

[defc0n]

I just want to say, I’m really excited about plant a seed day in 2019.

I’m going to call off of work for plant a seed day.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Robert, excellent first post and thanks for linking a good article. Glad you didn't mention what you had for supper.
IMHO I believe the transition will happen much faster than Wards estimate. Why would they project BEVs increase +-100% from 2019 to 2020 however only increase +-5% from 2024 to 2025, which is about the year likely to be the infection point, when BEV become less expensive than ICE on all metrics, making BEV a no-brainer. I do agree with their projection for Plug-In Hybrid going flat and would not be surprised if they are in decline by 2025, with >250 mile range BEVs, no more need for that pesky ICE engine.
Only time will tell. I'm looking forward to it, one day at a time.

View attachment 378647

I believe that graph represents the number of available models, not number of cars sold.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Demand secured.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I believe that graph represents the number of available models, not number of cars sold.

Cherry, yes, figured that out just after I pressed the send key, so Wards graph does make sense. The delete of my post was not quick enough, so you immortalized my daft post. Cheers.

 

[Radpioneer]

[QUOTE="Words of HABIT, post: 3408701........ The delete of my post was not quick enough, ....[/QUOTE]
No wonder I couldn't find your post to reply to. I was going to say thank you.....
I agree that it will/is happening faster then most think.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Sooooo, standard range removed from the website. Announcement coming?

https://electrek.co/2019/02/18/tesla-standard-model-3-battery-website-fans-panic/

 

[generalenthu]

Figured something today regarding Reuters and it's consistently negative stance on Tesla reporting. Turns out, Jenn Ablan who is the editor in charge of US investments is a Chanos fan and believes Tesla is a fraud. SMH..

 

[Mobius484]

I can understand someone being naive to BEV’s and even climate change, but I really have tried to understand the Elon hate, but just think it’s sad. Anyhow....

I wonder if the s/x reworking(now that we know the chemistry is the same between cells), will mostly contain reworkingnof the cooling system, and HVAC. Making the pack able to handle the track would be awesome. It needs a super bottle. I’m more than happy with my S, but as far as competing, this would be great.

I suspect the maxwell tech might already be in the works, the next gen roadsters at the reveal could be explained by this... maybe experimental at that point. they had magic sauce....

 

[sparcs]

Sooooo, standard range removed from the website. Announcement coming?

https://electrek.co/2019/02/18/tesla-standard-model-3-battery-website-fans-panic/

The announcement is that it's bad to advertise something that you can't actually deliver any time soon. They are probably realizing that they should have made this change a while ago to avoid anymore confusion for customers who want to buy a M3 today. You start setting up expectations and people hold off on purchases.

Better to promote and push sales on what you actually have available today. They can always add it back when it's ready for delivery.

 

[VValleyEV]

China economy: Slowdown in car sales deepens - CNN

So instead of noting that China EV sales nearly triple digit growth, they warn readers that ICE makers will struggle due to slow China sales.

Can we all see how this hurts our American economy?

The covering for last century’s automakers just hurts the innovation toward better modes of transport that they can’t provide citizens. What happened to the “free market?” Or is this just a hoax in order to monopolize and cartelize the market away from true innovative independent upstarts and entrepreneurs?

We have to make a decision, are we going to close our eyes and defend non innovation as a national policy and propaganda flood our citizens into thinking propping up dying businesses is “winning?” Or, are we going to allow innovative thought and true diverse and disperse entrepreneurship sprout for from our citizenry to meet the demands of a sustainable and prosperous future?

Win through having better ideas, not by defending tired ones.

Lead, follow, or get the F out of the way.

Tesla shows us this everyday.

Some news articles do a better job:
As the world’s largest auto market sputters, electric vehicles show no signs of slowing

 

[hacer]

... Right now a US company is already at a disadvantage when trying to sell their cars in Europe(10% tax) vs a European company selling their cars here (2.5% tax). The playing field should be even and fair. If Trump could actually pressure Europe into a fair 2.5% tax(even a 5% tax would be better) by threatening tariffs, ....

Nearly 2/3 of the U.S.new vehicle market is trucks and large SUVs. These vehicles, when imported to the U.S. are subject to 25% tariff and have been for decades. Only about 1/3 of our new vehicle market is subject to the low 2.5% tariff. Europe charges 10% regardless, but their car market is a much larger fraction of their total vehicle market. If Europe were to levy a 25% tariff on cars, and charge 2.5% on trucks and large SUVs that would be something like parity with the U.S.

Be careful what you ask for.

 

[Thekiwi]

One thing to remember is that the MR+PUP at $41,900 price point is only $2k-$3k above what you would expect to pay for a SR+PUP ($39k-$40k).

If the PUP upgrade is considered a $5K option - then the MR is effectively at $36,900 already, if it was available without PUP. (Im aware that it might not be profitable yet at that price)

Its not outside the bounds of reality that the MR may infact become the $35k Model 3

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let's return to the meat of the subject (ahem!) of Tesla's dry electrode technology acquisition, what it might do for Tesla products/production, and when it might do it.

First, let's examine potential performance improvements with this cell as a product:

• gravimetric energy density improves 50%
  • spec increases from 265 wh/kg to 400 wh/kg (400/265=1.50)
  • 2nd gen. path to > 500wh/kg implies => 100% improvement
• 1st generation of packs in this family could be up to:
  • 50% lighter/cheaper with the same range (Model 3SR?)
    
  • 50% higher range/performance at the same weight/price (MS VLR?)
  • gains fully realized after re-engineering the pack to match the cell
• reduced portion of strategic minerals (ie: cobalt) further reduces costs
• 2x cycle life increase implies half the heat (c.f. Coulombic eff.) allowing:
  • simpler/cheaper cooling systems in vehicles
    
  • faster supercharging allowable w/o shortening lifespan
• doublling cycle life further widens the potential product mix for these packs:
  • enables the $25K Car (smaller pack in high-duty service, ie: half-size bty but full speed charging+full life-time)
    
  • for high-end products, the million-mile Model 3 LR and Semi becomes a reality, potentially including refreshed Model S/X (AC mtrs replaced with SRPM mtrs)

Next, let's examine potential manufacturing improvements with the new cell:

• gains are implemented primarily as a production process enhancement:
  • minimal interuption of production during upgrades:
    • modular - only 1 of 7 steps is affected
      
    • incremental - one production line at a time can be upgraded
  • reclaims significant production space/increase production density
  • significantly decrease energy costs (drying ovens eliminated)
  • significantly reduce costs of environmental protection (solvent recycling)
  • faster production due to shortening time-consuming step
• lower use of raw materials increases supply chain efficiency at all levels
  
• lower unit weight reduces unit shipping costs/allows increased volume to Fremont

Finally let's speculate about possible timelines** for these benefits to come online: (then add a quarter or two to see the effects on FCF/GM/Profits/TSLA SP)

• 2019Q2 - Telsa completes aquisition of Maxwell Technologies
• 2019Q3 - pilot bty cell production line goes online at GF1/Sparks
  
• 2019Q4 - pilot production begins for Tesla Semi at GF1/Sparks
• 2020H1 - beta/field testing of Tesla Semi/Megacharger
• 2020Q3 - conversion of existing cell production lines begins at GF1
• 2020Q4 - Semi production begins at GF1 with new cells
• 2021H1 - Existing products using 2170 format convert to new cells

Personally, I consider this timeline conservative. It may be possible to combine steps, or perform steps concurrently. The technical + production benefits seem obvious, though the above list may not be exhaustive. Your thoughts?

Cheers to the Longs!

** possible timeline above is my pure speculation. I have zero insider knowledge of Telsa products and/or production plans, just an interested shareholder.

 

[gringotuanis]

Sooooo, standard range removed from the website. Announcement coming?

https://electrek.co/2019/02/18/tesla-standard-model-3-battery-website-fans-panic/

I am wondering this as well. Any thoughts ppl?

 

[RobStark]

I’m sure he meant “easy” as “comparatively speaking”. Why do you think so many investors invest in MANY different companies. They assume most will fail and only need one or two hits.

Venture Capitalist expect many companies they invest into to fail.

Investors who invest in S&P 500 companies don't expect many companies they invest into to fail. They bail way before then if they see trouble in the horizon.

Amazon is not a VC. Amazon is not investing into 20 EV startups hoping 2-3 are purchased by a legacy OEM and one really takes off to become an established OEM itself. Thereby garnering a handsome profit despite 16-17 failures.

 

[VValleyEV]

Just now:
Tesla: Overvalued After Q4 Earnings Announcement - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

1. Is there a basis for the claim here that the Q4 ER was “mostly negative”?
2. Is there a basis for the claim here that SP is currently at a $50 premium, overvalued by 17%?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

One thing to remember is that the MR+PUP at $41,900 price point is only $2k-$3k above what you would expect to pay for a SR+PUP ($39k-$40k).

If the PUP upgrade is considered a $5K option - then the MR is effectively at $36,900 already, if it was available without PUP. (Im aware that it might not be profitable yet at that price)

Its not outside the bounds of reality that the MR may infact become the $35k Model 3

Or they just charge $36,900 for it and call it good enough accounting for inflation.