Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
10,538
142,862
Canada
Seems there are two key questions to consider: (1) does the demand for Tesla products continue and/or grow
@Krugerrand

e60efd587fc26805b969fa307951ad11.jpg


:p

CH33RS!
 

UnknownSoldier

Unknown Member
Supporting Member
Apr 17, 2017
2,244
14,065
Earth
Sometimes I feel like this thread isn't moderated enough. 300+ posts a day, many going on weird tangents, can make it difficult to get through this forum. However, Fact Checking (except for when he gets political on occasion) and Karen are usually on the money and deserve more leeway than the rest of us because of the quality of their posts. I kind of like the idea of earning the ability to post more/day based on quality (maybe number of likes/loves) to help the moderators by reducing the number of less helpful posts.

P.S. - Don't know if this means anything, but I was surprised to see two large car haulers full of Tesla vehicles heading East on I-80 during my drive a couple hours ago....

P.P.S. - The only good thing about not having any elective surgeries tomorrow is that I can watch the market when it opens and maybe make some good trades. I got absolutely screwed last Monday when I had to quickly put in a Market order for FCAU Puts before I scrubbed into surgery, only to see them filled at SEVEN times the Bid/Ask price. The trade was supposed to cost around $20k, instead Fidelity forced it through and I was instantly down over $100k after the trade (I have never had that happen before with a Market order)! Day trading when you can't watch it is dangerous. :(
Using Market orders right now is incredibly dangerous. Bid/Ask spreads are bigger than I have ever seen in my years of trading. Even with a "good" broker like Fidelity or whatever, order flow is very choppy and people are posting up ridiculous Bids and Asks because of how unstable the market is right now. Of course shady brokers like Robinhood who sell your order flow to dark pools, I don't know what those people on WSB are doing. Get a real broker FFS and actually use Limit orders.
 

ggr

Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!
Supporting Member
Mar 24, 2011
7,033
28,466
San Diego, CA
Sometimes I feel like this thread isn't moderated enough. 300+ posts a day, many going on weird tangents, can make it difficult to get through this forum. However, Fact Checking (except for when he gets political on occasion) and Karen are usually on the money and deserve more leeway than the rest of us because of the quality of their posts. I kind of like the idea of earning the ability to post more/day based on quality (maybe number of likes/loves) to help the moderators by reducing the number of less helpful posts.

P.S. - Don't know if this means anything, but I was surprised to see two large car haulers full of Tesla vehicles heading East on I-80 during my drive a couple hours ago....

P.P.S. - The only good thing about not having any elective surgeries tomorrow is that I can watch the market when it opens and maybe make some good trades. I got absolutely screwed last Monday when I had to quickly put in a Market order for FCAU Puts before I scrubbed into surgery, only to see them filled at SEVEN times the Bid/Ask price. The trade was supposed to cost around $20k, instead Fidelity forced it through and I was instantly down over $100k after the trade (I have never had that happen before with a Market order)! Day trading when you can't watch it is dangerous. :(
I would never use a market order for options, for exactly this reason. I don't think you can say they "forced it through"... they executed what you told them to do.
 

wipster

Gold Member
Supporting Member
Nov 10, 2013
3,377
15,854
Kennewick, WA
0% 12+ month credit card balance transfers with 3% fee. So 3% effective first year. Or shift spending to a 0% intro rate card with minimum payments and use the difference to the full payment to buy stock.
Not advice.
I used to get 3 a week at a minimum... not any for the past month. These can be useful but you have to keep track of the payoff date or you'll get soaked. So if anyone is considering taking Citi (or whoever) up on their offer, be sure to stay on top of it.

Not an advice.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mongo

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
10,538
142,862
Canada
I only joined this forum a week ago and two of the three main reasons i joined were @KarenRei and @Fact Checking. The third being @Artful Dodger . This is easily the best Tesla investment forum I have ever come across, down largely to the contributions of those three posters. So I'll be taking a break until common sense prevails.
Lol, I got the "MOD msg" via PM earlier this month too. They had a point, which I accept.

You know wot? It's not about me, its about the future of Earth's equable climate. So I'm not going anywhere.

So I invested about 3% of my net worth in TSLA, and started participating in EV blogs. After realizing the shortcomings of some of the popular blogs like Neven's ASI Blog, Climate Progress, Electrick, Hot Topics NZ, I found myself casting about for a venue free of the worst aspects of specious moderation that those sites can fall prey to (mostly when they put their self-interest and personal pride above scientific investigation).

Dictionary

spe·cious
/ˈspēSHəs/
adjective

"superficially plausible, but actually wrong."
"a specious argument"
misleading in appearance, especially misleadingly attractive.
"the music trade gives Golden Oldies a specious appearance of novelty"
Specious Moderation is out there (=>Elecktrik<=). My advice for TMC members?
  • It's not that bad here (trust me)
  • try to stay on topic (MVPs get some wiggleroom)
  • Don't take *sugar* personal (chill)
  • MODS are human too (@DEMIGODS)
See? The system give no hits looking up members with Godlike status.
  • if *sugar* really bothers you, become a MOD
  • that'll cure you fast!
  • unless you're allergic to cat litter...
cat-scratching-760x335.jpg


CH33RS!
 

hacer

Active Member
Apr 13, 2016
1,195
5,566
Clarksville, MD
...The bigger problem with the numbers used by @Papafox is that the 3rd-party data source he uses DOES NOT INCLUDE "Short Exempt Volume", a.k.a. naked short selling.
!
Lodger - I really treasure your aftermarket reports and short exempt reports so please keep providing this valuable service. However you keep misrepresenting what "short exempt" means. It does NOT mean NAKED SHORT SELLING!
The term comes from 17 CFR § 242.200 (g) (2) which says:
A sale order shall be marked “short exempt” only if the provisions of § 242.201(c) or (d) are met.
17 CFR § 242.201 (c) says:
(c) Following any determination and notification pursuant to paragraph (b)(3) of this section with respect to a covered security, a broker or dealer submitting a short sale order of the covered security in question to a trading center may mark the order “short exempt” if the broker or dealer identifies the order as being at a price above the current national best bid at the time of submission; provided, however:(1) The broker or dealer that identifies a short sale order of a covered security as “short exempt” in accordance with this paragraph (c) must establish, maintain, and enforce written policies and procedures reasonably designed to prevent incorrect identification of orders for purposes of this paragraph; and(2) The broker or dealer shall regularly surveil to ascertain the effectiveness of the policies and procedures required by paragraph (c)(1) of this section and shall take prompt action to remedy deficiencies in such policies and procedures.
(d) Following any determination and notification pursuant to paragraph (b)(3) of this section with respect to a covered security, a broker or dealer may mark a short sale order of a covered security “short exempt” if the broker or dealer has a reasonable basis to believe that:(1) The short sale order of a covered security is by a person that is deemed to own the covered security pursuant to § 242.200, provided that the person intends to deliver the security as soon as all restrictions on delivery have been removed.(2) The short sale order of a covered security is by a market maker to offset customer odd-lot orders or to liquidate an odd-lot position that changes such broker's or dealer's position by no more than a unit of trading.(3) The short sale order of a covered security is for a good faith account of a person who then owns another security by virtue of which he is, or presently will be, entitled to acquire an equivalent number of securities of the same class as the securities sold; provided such sale, or the purchase which such sale offsets, is effected for the bona fide purpose of profiting from a current difference between the price of the security sold and the security owned and that such right of acquisition was originally attached to or represented by another security or was issued to all the holders of any such securities of the issuer.(4) The short sale order of a covered security is for a good faith account and submitted to profit from a current price difference between a security on a foreign securities market and a security on a securities market subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, provided that the short seller has an offer to buy on a foreign market that allows the seller to immediately cover the short sale at the time it was made. For the purposes of this paragraph (d)(4), a depository receipt of a security shall be deemed to be the same security as the security represented by such receipt.(5)(i) The short sale order of a covered security is by an underwriter or member of a syndicate or group participating in the distribution of a security in connection with an over-allotment of securities; or(ii) The short sale order of a covered security is for purposes of a lay-off sale by an underwriter or member of a syndicate or group in connection with a distribution of securities through a rights or standby underwriting commitment.(6) The short sale order of a covered security is by a broker or dealer effecting the execution of a customer purchase or the execution of a customer “long” sale on a riskless principal basis. In addition, for purposes of this paragraph (d)(6), a broker or dealer must have written policies and procedures in place to assure that, at a minimum:(i) The customer order was received prior to the offsetting transaction;(ii) The offsetting transaction is allocated to a riskless principal or customer account within 60 seconds of execution; and(iii) The broker or dealer has supervisory systems in place to produce records that enable the broker or dealer to accurately and readily reconstruct, in a time-sequenced manner, all orders on which a broker or dealer relies pursuant to this exception.(7) The short sale order is for the sale of a covered security at the volume weighted average price (VWAP) that meets the following criteria:(i) The VWAP for the covered security is calculated by:(A) Calculating the values for every regular way trade reported in the consolidated system for the security during the regular trading session, by multiplying each such price by the total number of shares traded at that price;(B) Compiling an aggregate sum of all values; and(C) Dividing the aggregate sum by the total number of reported shares for that day in the security.(ii) The transactions are reported using a special VWAP trade modifier.(iii) The VWAP matched security:(A) Qualifies as an “actively-traded security” pursuant to § 242.101 and § 242.102; or(B) The proposed short sale transaction is being conducted as part of a basket transaction of twenty or more securities in which the subject security does not comprise more than 5% of the value of the basket traded.(iv) The transaction is not effected for the purpose of creating actual, or apparent, active trading in or otherwise affecting the price of any security.(v) A broker or dealer shall be permitted to act as principal on the contra-side to fill customer short sale orders only if the broker's or dealer's position in the covered security, as committed by the broker or dealer during the pre-opening period of a trading day and aggregated across all of its customers who propose to sell short the same security on a VWAP basis, does not exceed 10% of the covered security's relevant average daily trading volume.

which are both unrelated to the naked short selling exception (Not exemption) described in 17 CFR § 242.203 (b) (2) (iii)

Basically short-exempt means either that the broker-dealer (market makers and others!!) is exempt from the uptick rule either because (c) they swear that when they entered the order it really, really! was above the best national bid - but just in case by marking it exempt it will execute even if for some reason it's not (above the best national bid) when it actually gets to the "market" 70 microseconds later or (d) it's part of some basket transaction or various other unlikely conditions.

So short-exempt is specifically "exempt" from the up-tick rule (and thus only meaningful when the up-tick rule is in effect) usually because the broker-dealer decided themselves that it met the rule so NASDAQ or various ECN's can skip the up-tick rule check and just go ahead an execute it anyway.
 

RobStark

Well-Known Member
Jul 2, 2013
10,874
57,491
Los Angeles, USA
Don’t think there’s much of a competition here, unless of course GM and Ford crew capsule are coming anytime soon?

Elon had engineering conversations with Medtronic.

GM is teaming up with Ventec Life Systems to leverage their capabilities to help boost production of Ventec ventilators.

It seems the medical equipment companies will focus efforts on their core competency and automakers will help greatly supplying most of the parts.

Perhaps Elon might not be able to help himself and build 22nd century ventilators all by Tesla/SpaceX themselves but it seems not.
 

Oil4AsphaultOnly

Active Member
Supporting Member
Mar 14, 2015
2,057
5,948
Arcadia, CA
+10000



This is also the reason I did not renew my top level sustaining membership. Arbitrary, capricious and petty moderation as has become more prevalent and it hurts this forum -- both financially and in the quality of posts.

I suspect the other mods must know who the troublemaker mod(s) is/are and they should simply give them a vacation from moderation for a while .. . or forever.

psycho pass, season 2. Can a judgement system (aka Sybil) judge itself? It can, and it must or the system becomes self-corrupting.

In honor of KarenRei, it's SO appropros when an anime theme foreshadows reality. :)
 

Lessmog

Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
2,887
7,960
Smögen
+10000



This is also the reason I did not renew my top level sustaining membership. Arbitrary, capricious and petty moderation as has become more prevalent and it hurts this forum -- both financially and in the quality of posts.

I suspect the other mods must know who the troublemaker mod(s) is/are and they should simply give them a vacation from moderation for a while .. . or forever.
The same kind of reason that I decided to not renew my (modest) sponsorship. FWIW.

Mind you, I DO understand that the task as moderator can be overwhelming and thankless, and it needs to be done. But at the same time, it also needs to be done WELL. Which goes to the prior part, obv.
 

Mo City

Active Member
Jul 17, 2016
1,910
11,884
near Houston
The traditional dealerships are, in some cases, multi-generational family businesses. They can have large influence in the community and many are large contributors to state politicians. The direct-sales model is an existential threat. However, it’s not clear whether the fear is new EV direct sales (still considered by many dealerships as a minuscule or far-future threat) or unleashing traditional ICE manufacturers to try direct sales.

If it’s the latter, I think compromise is possible in which, legislatively, EVs are fundamentally "different" than ICE cars and trucks and can be afforded different sales and service options (similar to RVs, farm equipment, etc). ICE manufacturers and dealerships can retain their current relationship (by legal enforcement if necessary). This could also aid the OEM EV efforts by allowing them to bypass dealerships hostile to EVs (if any significant OEM EV effort survives the current economy, that is). This would allow the EV and direct-sales transitions to happen hand-in-hand, for those states (like mine) where direct sales/service are currently not allowed.
Their biggest fear is everyone realizing how all they actually do is painfully suck blood from consumers. If direct model sales continue growing, that is inevitable.

They also hate EVs because service and parts are 50% of dealership profits. They realize service revenue will drop like a stone once EVs sales reach significant levels, regardless of sales process.

Dealerships need to go the way of real estate agents where they are forced to justify their existence to consumers in order to survive. Very few will. Most will close or convert solely to service.
 

Sudre

Active Member
May 30, 2012
1,071
7,043
Tesla have enough cash to ride out this disaster, but they will have much less cash when we come out of this, probably back to 2018 levels. Wondering if they will raise again or pull back on capex?
It may be that all the car makers get some kind of bailout. That seems to be the typical thing. Tesla might at least be able to get a zero interest loan since most likely GM will once again be Government Motors. That will bring on all the bears complaining about Tesla getting a bailout while GM will get a pass.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
7,783
33,542
Philadelphia, PA
Every carmaker will be getting so much cash they're gonna choke on it. Centralized govts across the globe(and certainly here in the US) will be looking to extend the internal combustion status quo for as long as is humanly possible.

That means shoveling tax dollars into legacy automakers beyond what they would even ask for. Tesla will receive equal treatment to maintain some semblance of logic.

TSLA will be absolutely floating in money by the time 2Q earnings are announced.
 
  • Disagree
  • Helpful
Reactions: GOVA and NicoV

HG Wells

Martian Embassy
Apr 5, 2016
2,199
16,524
Visas Tuesdays 2-4
What about Model Y delivery? Why do you mention it? That its going well? That Model Y is great?

AH, I thought someone would read through the thread and be surprised that some model Y orders PLACED THIS YEAR are being filled this quickly.

Not as bad as it sounds. Lots of people are delaying orders due to numerous reasons (virus, car not sold, car still on lease etc).
Initially I thought it might be errors in entering year, as the auto fill defaults to 2020.

Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet
QUOTE:
Help! Ordered late February, Blue/White all the options. Got email re financing, etc. a couple weeks ago. Got a call Friday from Nevada Tesla basically confirming the details I put in online but that was it. I asked him when it looked like I was getting the car and he said by the end of the month! Anyone else getting these calls? Did anyone who already got theirs delivered get that call? If so, how quickly is this baby going to be in my garage?
END QUOTE


upload_2020-3-22_18-28-9.png


Looking forward to getting my model Y.

EDIT Or it could be whoever at Tesla wrote the code to send out notices made an error.
 
Last edited:
  • Informative
Reactions: capster

dw4ngg

Member
Feb 19, 2017
615
2,327
Houston
Futures are limit down, tomorrow will be a very bad day on the markets. (Not advice)
Aren’t you excited then? Believe you sold all your TSLA hoping for further drop? Be careful as there usually starts to be a divergence between stronger companies and weaker companies the deeper you head down market dips.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: JulieN08724

Buckminster

Active Member
Aug 29, 2018
3,728
20,363
UK
Okay, I dealing with a lot of crises at the moment. They have come in this sequence.
  1. Brexit - 3 years and hasn't really happened yet
  2. Climate change
  3. Covid
  4. TSLA halving in price
  5. Panic shopping fallout
  6. Karen leaving
  7. FC leaving
What is interesting is that each of these is worse than the previous... Factchecking is the best poster here bar none.

What's next? Actual zombies?
 

Eugene Ash

Member
Supporting Member
Dec 8, 2015
289
1,587
Redmond, WA
Lodger - I really treasure your aftermarket reports and short exempt reports so please keep providing this valuable service. However you keep misrepresenting what "short exempt" means. It does NOT mean NAKED SHORT SELLING!
The term comes from 17 CFR § 242.200 (g) (2) which says:

17 CFR § 242.201 (c) says:


which are both unrelated to the naked short selling exception (Not exemption) described in 17 CFR § 242.203 (b) (2) (iii)

Basically short-exempt means either that the broker-dealer (market makers and others!!) is exempt from the uptick rule either because (c) they swear that when they entered the order it really, really! was above the best national bid - but just in case by marking it exempt it will execute even if for some reason it's not (above the best national bid) when it actually gets to the "market" 70 microseconds later or (d) it's part of some basket transaction or various other unlikely conditions.

So short-exempt is specifically "exempt" from the up-tick rule (and thus only meaningful when the up-tick rule is in effect) usually because the broker-dealer decided themselves that it met the rule so NASDAQ or various ECN's can skip the up-tick rule check and just go ahead an execute it anyway.
Thank you for explanation, it looks like the short exempt may have an additional source, if a broker-dealer choses to check that box voluntarily, looks like to save them grief in HFT.

Factual - yes, but i doubt this act of self-marking is prevalent and meaningful, as we are observing a correlation that this % spikes with atypically down days.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: humbaba

Products we're discussing on TMC...

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top