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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

PeterJA

Active Member
Sep 26, 2013
1,110
12,012
San Diego
South Korea used quick massive amounts of testing, combined with extensive use of CCTV and mobile phone tracking to find potential infected, and so were able to contain spread early.

the USA is far far beyond that state, with cases in all 50 states and little to no testing for months.

The South Korea solution is no longer an option to stop the USA outbreak.

Your crystal ball is pretty pessimistic.

EDIT: I'll stop now on this topic in this thread, in case the mods are on strike.
 

S3XY

Active Member
Supporting Member
Nov 24, 2015
2,123
7,106
Buffalo, NY
An interesting dynamic is playing out right now in the Senate. They're dealing with multiple republican senators that aren't able to vote due to testing positive for the virus....with possibly more of them getting quarantined due to their contact between themselves. It would be VERY much in their interest to get the deal done however they can right now because the Senate could flip to majority Democratic if negotiation extend into the week. Luckily, these events might mean a more fair deal instead of the Republican interests favored.
If I might be so bold as to stand-in for @Fact Checking let me remind everyone that he posited that the Democrats have the leverage since the incumbents will be blamed for the bad economy and would therefore need the stimulus package to pass more than do the Democrats. So even without the ill senators taken into account things should lean towards the Democrat's interests anyway.
 

ZeApelido

Active Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,403
32,735
The Peninsula, CA
See, this is where we need someone like FactChecking, to counter pessimistic, doomsday scenario posts like this one. Yes, GDP may go down by 24% in Q2 but will go up 12% in Q3 and 10% in Q4. At least according Goldman Sachs:
.

Congratulations! We have accepted our nomination of you to replace Fact Checking.

Don't screw it up.
 

ZeApelido

Active Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,403
32,735
The Peninsula, CA
Hmm how to get @Fact Checking and @KarenRei back...

Hey remember near the end of 2018 I was very concerned about a demand drop because of the halving of U. S. tax credit.

They disagreed with me that there was any demand problem. I was right and they were wrong! Thus the price drops in Q1 2019.

Now I am worried about demand dropping over the next few quarters for the obvious recession reasons.

To bad they aren't here to provide any weak retorts...
 

Eugene Ash

Member
Supporting Member
Dec 8, 2015
289
1,587
Redmond, WA
Robinhood users increasing TSLA speaks very little if stock will go upl.
I asked my friends who are holding Ford and why the heck did you buy Ford vs. Tesla and they say b/c SP is cheaper... I guess they "think" that cheaper stock price = more upside gain.. Its all psychological.
In anycase, some were saying Ford could go bankrupt by 2023 unless they execute or get government bailout, so we shall see..
Well, that wsb term they christianed themselves with, explains it. You have to have some mental capacity. My wakeup moment was Elon's autonomy day vs Hatchet's CES speach on the same subject. Plus, what is 195k shares out of that float? A tiny drop. Interesting data point, though, from perspective of fomo/fof.
 
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Green Pete

Active Member
Oct 8, 2016
1,187
6,156
Earth
Hmm how to get @Fact Checking and @KarenRei back...

Hey remember near the end of 2018 I was very concerned about a demand drop because of the halving of U. S. tax credit.

They disagreed with me that there was any demand problem. I was right and they were wrong! Thus the price drops in Q1 2019.

Now I am worried about demand dropping over the next few quarters for the obvious recession reasons.

To bad they aren't here to provide any weak retorts...

Fact checking called me a fear monger 2 months back when I said the corona virus was going to tear global markets apart. When I expressed that I felt that calling me a fear monger was wrong I got my post deleted and a mod note of "tread lightly". I was right and Fact Checking was wrong. Fact Checking is still way smarter than me and I am disappointed they are gone. Same goes for KarenRei. Ive made some good points here and had smart people tell me I was wrong when I turned out to be right. But even a broken clock is right twice a day and both of them individually contributed 10x more than I could ever hope to. It is a true loss that they have left. I personally am far less interested in this forum than I was 2 months ago, even though I still believe strongly in the future of Tesla. This turmoil has not done this forum any benefit.

I do want to point out tesla is still up 50% in the last 12 months. 100% in the last 6 months. You can play the ups and downs, you may win, you may lose. One thing I am 100% confident of is that Tesla will win.

Not advice, just an opinion.
 

CanadaEV

Member
Dec 12, 2014
342
2,033
Canada
The only way US cases can be like China is if US implements the national lockdown and quarantine China did. And China was literally enforcing stay at home, except 1 family member can leave every 3 days to buy food. Drones flew overhead everywhere to enforce it, if you were outside your house on a day you weren't designated to buy food you were subject to arrest. Travel between cities was entirely banned, everything was closed except supermarkets and pharmacies.

I don't think anyone here understands what China did. Thinking we can have the same curve as China is absolutely foolish without knowing what China did to get there.

Yes, China has a government able to accomplish a very strong response. People in the West see this as oppression.

South Korea is like a combination of the centralized Chinese system and the democratic Western system. For example, a single infected woman did not want to be tested. She refused twice, and then circulated in public places, and at her church in Daegu. She was the 'superspreader' who got the disease started. It took a real lockdown in Daegu to halt the rise. If China's response is too strong, permitting someone to refuse testing, and ultimately cause the deaths of hundreds is far too weak.

But my son, who lives there, told me that Korea was fully prepared after their experience with SARS and MERS. After the outbreak in Daegu, they acted decisively and tested over 250,000 early on. They enforced quarantine and used technology, phone apps, to trace cases and halt the spread. China used this method too.

You could follow some Western YouTubers in China, as I have for the past month. You'll see that the measures you detail in China have been much less draconian than what people in the West believe. The Chinese people overwhelmingly support the government's severe response. Many Westerners who live there do too.

These YouTubers were three Canadians and one American. They have been there for 6 - 10 years. They say that attitudes in the West are too negative about China, and not accurate.

If there is a dangerous health threat that can be curtailed in its early stages, as in Korea and China, that will save many lives and result in much less damage to the economy than a later, weaker response.

Ideology is important in the normal life of citizens. However there are exceptions, like war and health threats, where very strong measures are beneficial.
 

ggr

Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!
Supporting Member
Mar 24, 2011
7,033
28,466
San Diego, CA
I believe that would require a constitutional amendment which would not be an option . Both logistically with senators not available to vote and time wise
Wrong, the constitution leaves it up to the states as to how their vote is conducted. Any state can do what Washington already did, and make it universal vote-by-mail.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
7,783
33,542
Philadelphia, PA
South Korea used quick massive amounts of testing, combined with extensive use of CCTV and mobile phone tracking to find potential infected, and so were able to contain spread early.

the USA is far far beyond that state, with cases in all 50 states and little to no testing for months.

The South Korea solution is no longer an option to stop the USA outbreak.
The OP stated that the only effective measure to date was China style lockdown. That is completely untrue.

Yes, we are far beyond that stopping a major outbreak, but I think the principles are still valid. Widespread free testing and communication is likely just as effective as this shutdown without all the massive ancillary harm.

We'll find out this week. Either it stays spotty or is widespread by end of the week.
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,662
Singapore
Plus, what is 195k shares out of that float?

Note that the Robinhood data is number of users holding TSLA in their portfolio, not number of shares held by Robinhood users.

Noone knows the average number of TSLA shares in a Robinhood portfolio that includes TSLA, but I'd guess Robinhood users alone account for at least a few million TSLA shares at this point.
 
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bramsvs

Member
Mar 4, 2019
28
468
Delft, Netherlands
Tesla will be less than $100 by summer. The obvious move is to liquidate now and buy back when things look better.
giphy.gif


Everybody sell sell sell!

Let me just drop this link here:
Self-fulfilling prophecy - Wikipedia
 

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