Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

Was there any specific Tesla news which caused the spike from 310 to 326 when macros were dropping?

Not complaining.

 

[Krugerrand]

This was not the story told by bulls at the time. The story was that there wouldn't be any effect on even short term demand, and that was simply wrong.

Now here we are we a potential massive recession, potentially many less people with excess cash left for the "Tesla stretch". Now are you telling me in the short term (this calendar year) that is not going to have any effect on how much people are willing to spend on a Tesla?

To assume it won't have an effect is, yet again, egregious.

Must we rehash the past, yet again? Particularly, when it doesn’t serve a single purpose today.

I’m enjoying the dramatization of the events from a year ago, how the storyline continues to be fluid, how it causes the ‘d’ word to be bandy about and thus causes me to add to my wealth almost entirely against my will. But for the love of all that is good and light and corona virus free can we just let it go?

There, I’ve done my voluntary thread mediation/moderation for the day. Someone else’s turn now.

 

[Mo City]

Ok you guys put your head in the sand and pretend everything is rosy.

I'll leave you with this

"Dr. Neil M. Ferguson, a British epidemiologist who is regarded as one of the best disease modelers in the world, produced a sophisticated model with a worst case of 2.2 million deaths in the United States.


I asked Ferguson for his best case. “About 1.1 million deaths,” he said."

Opinion | The Best-Case Outcome for the Coronavirus, and the Worst

Couldn't read the article because of the paywall.

The US will have over 1 million deaths? China has less than 3,200 deaths so far. What is his prognosis for China?

 

[Krugerrand]

Was there any specific Tesla news which caused the spike from 310 to 326 when macros were dropping?

Not complaining.

We’re in the 4’s not the 3’s.

 

[dl003]

Was there any specific Tesla news which caused the spike from 310 to 326 when macros were dropping?

Not complaining.

I'm of the opinion that many buyers were holding off when TSLA was decimated because they knew how leveraged some hedge funds had been so they waited for those to be flushed out. Now that it seems to have found a short term bottom they begin to add more to their position.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

We’re in the 4’s not the 3’s.

Oops, let's hope that is not an omen.

 

[Fobble]

What?? Even @Fact Checking left? sigh..

Yep. Elon left TMC ....

 

[ProfTournesol]

What?? Even @Fact Checking left? sigh..

Damn.....average quality of the posts will drop significantly.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So is Fremont open or closed? Any of the TESLAQ crowd counted the cars in the parking lot yet?

Seems to be a taboo topic. I was curious on wether there was policy update on manufacturing as well but if anyone knows no one is saying.

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla Model Y search is up, but does not compensate drop in other 3.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Darn it seems like 411 was the reversal for today for Tesla, no matter what the macro's do. Really impressive strength in the stock today.

 

[mongo]

Seems to be a taboo topic. I was curious on wether there was policy update on manufacturing as well but if anyone knows no one is saying.

Not taboo, previously covered.
They are doing an orderly shutdown that completes today. Will continue doing maintenance.

Tesla shutting down Fremont plant March 23 after mounting criticism - Roadshow

 

[CorneliusXX]

Q1 is always the lowest demand for vehicles in the US (and it holds true across all brands). My understanding is that Tesla screwed up and didn't ship enough M3's overseas soon enough in the quarter (to deliver in Q1) so they had an excess in the US. Rather than shipping them overseas for sale in Q2 or selling them in the US in Q2, they lowered prices to clear all inventory.

In case you haven't noticed, even though production has increased dramatically, they have only raised prices and removed features since then. And they are selling every one they can make. Also, until Q1 2019, all Model 3's were being sold in North America at a rate higher than the steady-state demand while they filled back-logged demand. In other words, the Q1 price cuts were due to a screw-up that left excessive cars in the US as Tesla was transitioning to International sales. So it wasn't a "drop in the steady-state demand", it was normal seasonal variations combined with filling the backlog of orders that existed in North America since the Model 3 was introduced.

You can spin it your way but only people who are are not familiar with the facts on the ground will buy into it.

That's sugar coating things a bit. Tesla got scared enough by what they were seeing internally on demand to rush the SR+, cut prices x2 times in Q1 and close stores in a clearly unplanned way. You can go back and read excellent posts from @neroden at the time, and posts later in the year from both @KarenRei and @Fact Checking all acknowledging there was a temporary drop in demand greater than Tesla had forecast. This hole in US demand in Q1 19 was due to both seasonal variations and the Q4 end of tax incentive which pulled forward a substantial amount of demand into the previous quarter.

Europe received all the vehicles expected, they just hadn't scaled up their EU delivery services to be able to get them to customers. That's why Tesla produced 12k more M3s than delivered. There were around 2k S&X produced above deliveries too.

Also, Tesla generally didn't drop prices in Q2 with the exception of the LR, but did include autopilot.

As you correctly say, the drop in demand was only temporary and Tesla has continued on its merry way since then.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Tesla Model Y search is up, but does not compensate drop in other 3.View attachment 524697

but look at that strength of interest through the crisis. MY is going to be an absolute monster cash generator when things get back to normal.

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla Model Y search is up, but does not compensate drop in other 3.View attachment 524697

Tesla search on these 4 vehicles has dropped 30% in the last month.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Not taboo, previously covered.
They are doing an orderly shutdown that completes today. Will continue doing maintenance.

Tesla shutting down Fremont plant March 23 after mounting criticism - Roadshow

Yes. But the inquiry was more from the point of view of had there been any evolution on the topic. Things change rapidly in the Tesla world.

 

[ZeApelido]

but look at that strength of interest through the crisis. MY is going to be an absolute monster cash generator when things get back to normal.

I have no perception of what is "healthy" search during a crisis. Certainly if it rises back up at all that would be great. I would assume some people will start being interested again simply when peak virus fear is over.

 

[SOULPEDL]

It's probably more nuanced and might just be due to use of terms.

I think the likely scenario would be like this:

True demand: A
Apparent demand: B
Production capacity: C

When A > C, you would only be able to observe a demand of B (and B = C in this case). It is possible for Tesla's apparent demand to not be affected and remains at B if the following condition holds: True demand A drops to A' but remains higher than C, therefore apparent demand remains at B (B=C, again).

Thats what is meant by production limited. Does a recession brings A below C? We don't know.

So some of you can be arguing that A is definitely dropping, while some of you are arguing that B remains at C. You guys are talking about different things here.

There u go, and I'm betting, with my retirement money, on a continued capacity constraint scenario... as it has been for several consecutive years now.
I'm getting clear signals that many don't want to make sense of it. And in the absense of data, the FUD seems to have thickened already. I expected this in Q2. Maybe working from home pays there?
Meanwhile, I cant wait to compare Ford's respirator to Tesla's.

 

[Mad@gascar]

Yes, I was trying to hedge TSLA with FCAU Puts. It was a good call. I would have nearly doubled my money if my market order had filled close to the BID/ASK price. Instead I'm down $100K on what should have been a $20K order. I learned my lesson on Market orders (I've used them for years and never had that happen before).

Market order to buy means an order to buy at the best possible price, i.e., at the lowest ask price on the order book at the time your order is received.

If you didn't get the best possible price, you have a valid grievance against your broker. If your broker won't reverse your trade, I would file complaints with the SEC and FINRA, or pursue legal action. What could have happened is that the market maker saw your market order come in, and quickly raised his ask price before the order was executed. That would be illegal.

But keep in mind depth of order book. Your order may have "burned through the order book". If the current offer (ask) on the book was for only one contract, but your market order was to buy 10 contracts, then the broker owes you only one contract at the quoted lowest ask price, and the remaining nine could be executed at whatever higher ask prices were on the order book at the time. There would be nothing illegal about that. That's why you have to be super careful with market orders if liquidity is low (as often the case for options).

 

[Tim S]

So is Fremont open or closed? Any of the TESLAQ crowd counted the cars in the parking lot yet?

They are planning to suspend production at Fremont and Buffalo at end of day today. (This was posted by Tesla 4 days ago so their plans could have changed).

Tesla Operational Update | Tesla, Inc.

"As such, we have decided to temporarily suspend production at our factory in Fremont, from end of day March 23, which will allow an orderly shutdown. Basic operations will continue in order to support our vehicle and energy service operations and charging infrastructure, as directed by the local, state and federal authorities. Our factory in New York will temporarily suspend production as well, except for those parts and supplies necessary for service, infrastructure and critical supply chains. Operations of our others facilities will continue, including Nevada and our service and Supercharging network."