Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

Tesla Model Y search is up, but does not compensate drop in other 3.View attachment 524697

It's just a fact of life that there is less people searching for all types/models of cars right now. Something else happens to be more on their mind at the moment. You toss in any other car other than model y and you'll see that searches for that vehicle are down right now:

 

[StealthP3D]

This was not the story told by bulls at the time. The story was that there wouldn't be any effect on even short term demand, and that was simply wrong.

Huh? Your response to my explanation doesn't make sense. Read it again. Because I said that the underlying demand didn't change. What changed was the backlog demand was finally filled. No one in their right mind would claim you could fill backlogged demand without reducing total demand in a specific market.

Now here we are we a potential massive recession, potentially many less people with excess cash left for the "Tesla stretch". Now are you telling me in the short term (this calendar year) that is not going to have any effect on how much people are willing to spend on a Tesla?

To assume it won't have an effect is, yet again, egregious.

Your mistake is that I didn't address the demand going forward. At all. So, no, I didn't tell you what you said I did. If you want to discuss demand going forward, we can. But given your obstinance to sticking to the topic under discussion, I'm not sure it would be productive.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla got scared enough by what they were seeing internally on demand to rush the SR+

That is NOT why Tesla introduced the Model 3 SR+ at the time it chose.

Fremont production capacity was far exceeding GF1's ability to supply LR battery packs, due to Panasonic's slow ramp in 2170 cell production.

It's the same reason Tesla introduced the Medium Range (LeMur) in Nov 2018: lack of bty cells.

Tesla knew that the marginal cost of production for Model 3 was decreasing so quickly that they could introduce the SR+ variant as soon as it reached breakeven, and it would very quickly become profitable as production volume increase. It's chicken and egg economics.

Elon did the right thing for Tesla by bringing in SR+ when he did, dispite EVERY SINGLE THING you unconciously absorb from TSLAQ.

 

[LJS22]

Tesla search on these 4 vehicles has dropped 30% in the last month.

That’s right in line with the rest of the auto industry. I believe CNBC reported a 30-40% drop in new car interest last week.

 

[Fobble]

Looks like Capitol Hill and Senate EDIT: are very close to agree have agreed on the stimulus packages to be closed sometimes today ...
My take: the indexes are likely close positive today. Tesla has better strength, so highly likely staying green today

 

[StealthP3D]

This hole in US demand in Q1 19 was due to both seasonal variations and the Q4 end of tax incentive which pulled forward a substantial amount of demand into the previous quarter.

As you correctly say, the drop in demand was only temporary and Tesla has continued on its merry way since then.

That's all true except you left out one pertinent fact: That Tesla could have sold every car produced, without dropping prices, had they shipped them to the proper markets in time. In other words, the biggest factor by far was the untimely switch to International sales. Before Q1, not a single Model 3 had been shipped overseas. Except for a handful of samples.

 

[wipster]

More of the same!
50,000 N95 masks delivered to UW researcher’s home thanks to Elon Musk, Tesla

 

[StealthP3D]

That’s right in line with the rest of the auto industry. I believe CNBC reported a 30-40% drop in new car interest last week.

So, we can expect Tesla sales to be flat over the comparable period last year?

Personally, I believe we will see an increase in sales vs. the comparable quarter.

 

[Prime_Number]

Dear Mods,

The forum is near a breaking point when the discussion is let run rampant at the level of ZeApelido's level of conversation.

@ZeApelido, are you here to teach or to learn? Perhaps once you have stated a point, assume you have been heard and move on.

I REALLY REALLY wish this forum to survive. It may require all of us to help enforce civility and quality communication.. I am certain that if we can find an new model of managing this forum, Karen and Facts Checking will come back and continue to share their insights.

Miss them a lot.

 

[Rarity]

Perhaps we are already seeing buying from the Federal Reserve. Here are this morning's transactions on Tesla's big bond (see the steady purchases in the $84s). Wouldn't be surprised to see a new bond issue in the next month or two from Tesla, once things settle down a bit.

 

[UncaNed]

The rift between our most valued posters and MODs illustrates what I've tried to express several times, that the forum structure does not quite fill the needs of this growing, diverse, yet focused group.

My opt-in* suggestion still allows members to post their desired range of thoughts while accommodating what the hard working MODS are, of necessity, trying to do; all the posts that pass the more discriminating MOD's current standards would remain as they are. The more off-topic posts get shrunk to half the current height of an avatar with:

- smaller font size
- unique shaded
- 1/4 size avatar
- click to expand
- members could continue to enjoy the full Montezuma of posts as is currently, or opt-in to the system.

This way, pointless stock price recitations, "three-fiddy", "backing up the truck", and 3-screens-tall graphics all exist, but no longer need to interfere with those scrambling to learn about TSLA during limited work breaks or bus rides to work.

Who decides?
Those above a threshold "Like" to "Disagree" ratio, (or a MOD-appointed group of long-time trusted contributing members) may vote on which posts to minimize; 5 votes and it shrinks.

To accommodate our most valued members, the higher your earned "Like" to "Disagree" ratio, the more shrink votes required to shrink your posts.

I've no idea about the cost of programming something like this, but I'd be happy to contribute.

*Those who elect not to opt-in see no change in the forum whatsoever.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Dear Mods,

The forum is near a breaking point when the discussion is let run rampant at the level of ZeApelido's level of conversation.

@ZeApelido, are you here to teach or to learn? Perhaps once you have stated a point, assume you have been heard and move on.

I REALLY REALLY wish this forum to survive. It may require all of us to help enforce civility and quality communication.. I am certain that if we can find an new model of managing this forum, Karen and Facts Checking will come back and continue to share their insights.

Miss them a lot.

There is always an ignore button, and I did click it twice today already... maybe trice...

 

[Compton]

If FactChecking and KarenRei have left for good, I hope they would continue posting on some other forum and would let us know. There would be a sudden influx of new members.

 

[StealthP3D]

I have no perception of what is "healthy" search during a crisis. Certainly if it rises back up at all that would be great. I would assume some people will start being interested again simply when peak virus fear is over.

Keep in mind that Google Trends data is normalized for the volume of total searches. With people told to stay home from work, there are probably a lot more searches in general happening.

Example:

Say you have 100 people searching for a Model Y every day. Then they are told to stay home because of the Coronavirus. Now assume the 100 people are still doing their daily search for Model Y but are also searching for Coronavirus. Now it looks like Model Y searches have been cut in half (but they are actually unchanged).

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

If FactChecking and KarenRei have left for good, I hope they would continue posting on some other forum and would let us know. There would be a sudden influx of new members.

My opinion - the mods of this forum need to bake up some cookies and ship them to Iceland ASAP!

 

[carterm2]

What is crazy is that I bought Jully SPY puts a week ago. Since then the S&P has gone down a lot, but my Puts have not increased in value.....

Buy calls then. (In TSLA of course)

nb. not advice ...

 

[EV forever]

They are planning to suspend production at Fremont and Buffalo at end of day today. (This was posted by Tesla 4 days ago so their plans could have changed).

Tesla Operational Update | Tesla, Inc.

"As such, we have decided to temporarily suspend production at our factory in Fremont, from end of day March 23, which will allow an orderly shutdown. Basic operations will continue in order to support our vehicle and energy service operations and charging infrastructure, as directed by the local, state and federal authorities. Our factory in New York will temporarily suspend production as well, except for those parts and supplies necessary for service, infrastructure and critical supply chains. Operations of our others facilities will continue, including Nevada and our service and Supercharging network."

Yes, was aware of that. However, I was just wondering if they actually closed or are managing to keep it open and going partially. Knowing Elon will always find a way around. There were articles that Tesla was planning to use this time to upgrade/make changes to current production lines to improve production. That would have a long term impact, even if manufacturing was shut down.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Yes, was aware of that. However, I was just wondering if they actually closed or are managing to keep it open and going partially. Knowing Elon will always find a way around. There were articles that Tesla was planning to use this time to upgrade/make changes to current production lines to improve production. That would have a long term impact, even if manufacturing was shut down.

Elon is probably in there himself running the assembly line in a one man show.

 

[Fobble]

Buy calls then.

Instead of suggesting buying calls to FCA, SPY ..., better if we can just ignore those posts that are on anything else that are irrelevant to TSLA investment, including TSLA puts. This is not a forum for gloats.

 

[dww12]

My opinion - the mods of this forum need to bake up some cookies and ship them to Iceland ASAP!

Do we have @KarenRei address? Do they have Tiffs Treats in Iceland?