Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Bought 200 @ $500, I’m feeling confident in TSLA going up from here, albeit not in a straight line. Could I have waited for a lower price? Sure. I waited yesterday too...

Yes! And this is really hard to do... like trying to hop on a moving train, hoping it doesn't get robbed or derailed.

I was waiting for (320?) something lower than my last purchase at $389 to get more. You know... catch a falling knife, lol. The April 3rd'ish delivery report will bring in focus the S&P, I trust. At that point, reality starts sinking in that Tesla is the ONLY boat still floating (or not bailing buckets of water). So the FUD attack comes on real hard Deliveries+1 day on the Q2 demand FUD. Long term no matter, but is there a risky play here for even more skimming? I seriously have seen this playbook so many times!!! Debated even selling the 50 today watching what I thought was going to be the MMD, but it snapped it.

All within the same minute, I got this sick feeling that I left my suitcase full of cash at the train station.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sure because I feel nice today:

House Democrats introduce a $2.5 trillion coronavirus stimulus plan as Senate bill stalls

But usually google 2.5 trillion should do.

If I remember correctly, when I was talking about the condition for each of my tranches. The bill I mentioned was only $900 bil. So.... ya.

Appreciate the kindness for my laziness

That deal structure isn't perfect(they need to do a deal that does say 1,500 every month, not just one time payments), but it's so much better for holding up the economy than the republican one.

 

[Tim S]

Agree. I am waiting a week before even looking at stocks. It was 2 weeks before, but it looks like congress might pass that 2.5T (getting bigger each day) stimulus package and that was set as one of my conditions for buying a tranch early on. Currently the only thing people should be buying are inflation hedges.

I just googled "inflation hedges". Seems like the best ones are TIPs, REITs, and growth stocks. I'll continue to HODL my TSLA.

 

[Earlian]

I'm back into TSLA. Some ARKK and AMZN too, after having been completely flat for nearly two weeks.

Good to have you back on board ! ! !

You were missed.

 

[Curt Renz]

 

[aubreymcfato]

Heat pumps in Model Y may be indicator of what other new products Tesla is going to reveal in the future.

Don’t sleep on Tesla Energy and heat pumps.

Elon Musk hints at a 'Tesla Smart Home' with more efficient air conditioning - Electrek

ADD: scaled production of heat pumps lowers cost for home heat pump and vice versa. 300% more efficient heat pump in the home at compelling price could really be interesting. Also, could become a “package deal” for solar roof, powerwall, Tesla heat pump all in one.

A more efficient air conditioning is one of the keys to solve climate change, for Project Drawdown:
Refrigerant Management | Project Drawdown

Now, I don't think that a premium, residential product (like the Solar Roof) will put a dent in emissions, but if Elon manages to create some building-size products (think offices, hospitals, plants, etc.) that could be *very* helpful.

 

[Nocturnal]

So the question remains what will be the impact of the Q1 deliveries report.

I think we can all agree it is extremely hard to tell what Tesla will report. Prior to this madness, I was expecting that we will beat market expectations with ~115k production and ~100-105 deliveries maybe. Lately, mainly based on @Troy`s projections I have downgraded my expectations to 90-99k... but even so, with the latest quarantine measures around the world and the Fremont shutdown I would not be surprised if we only hit the high 80s. We were at ~80k produced about 2 weeks ago at the 1 million announcement, so normally production would just have surpassed 100k, but deliveries are harder to predict.

Having said that, what I am really torn about is whether this will even matter at all? Tesla may report 95k deliveries. No wait, let`s go crazy: 105k. Who cares? I think what everyone will be focusing on is any Q2 guidance... and that won`t be pretty.

It is uncertain how long before Fremont can open again. Reading our US posters I feel like in mentality they are 2-3 weeks behind us Europeans. I agree with @NicoV, that you can observer this shift in mindset as things become more serious. It`s all just a media report, a bit over hyped maybe you may think, then things start getting out of hand pretty close to home and you radically start to see things in a different light.

I don`t feel like Wall Street, or even our American TMC posters here are there yet. So I am concerned as well, if things deteriorate over the next week or so, how TSLA and the markets may react.

@avoigt this is one of those rare occasions where we disagree. I would love for you to be right, but I would wait until I see several days of sustained decline of new cases before I accept it is more than just variation in the data.

I have to think that the market has priced in crappy Q1 results in the current SP, although guidance never changed so some might use that as an excuse to downgrade etc. I do tend to agree that whatever the size of the hit, most will be in Q2. People who are buying in Q1 pretty much already had their orders in place or at least their plans to order.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Currently the only thing people should be buying are inflation hedges.

Please explain. I mentioned this same concern last week and the idea was quickly shot down. I ask b/c I'm still considering (trying to justify) adding a Model Y to increase my debt - another inflation hedge. Maybe more guitars or some old classic amps too

 

[samppa]

Ford announces factories will be closed for longer tham they originally thought.

Stock goes up 20%.

I give up.

 

[Tim S]

A more efficient air conditioning is one of the keys to solve climate change, for Project Drawdown:
Refrigerant Management | Project Drawdown

Now, I don't think that a premium, residential product (like the Solar Roof) will put a dent in emissions, but if Elon manages to create some building-size products (think offices, hospitals, plants, etc.) that could be *very* helpful.

1,000 Solar Roofs a week will most certainly make a dent.

 

[SunCatcher]

I'm back into TSLA. Some ARKK and AMZN too, after having been completely flat for nearly two weeks.

AWESOME!!! That's the spirit Curt!

 

[SOULPEDL]

I have to think that the market has priced in crappy Q1 results in the current SP, although guidance never changed so some might use that as an excuse to downgrade etc. I do tend to agree that whatever the size of the hit, most will be in Q2. People who are buying in Q1 pretty much already had their orders in place or at least their plans to order.

Elon knew about a weak Q1/Q2, 2020 about a year ago. My guess is he sought to create value in other places back then to level out cash flow now. And to me, that's either Energy or FSD and both are in play now. If either one of these break out, all bets are off on SP. Meanwhile, our "old" Model 3 just got the new Tesla Computer... for free! And this happened after the Corona news was out (last week). I'm rolling with FSD upgrade imminent, and timed to level out the Q2 storm.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA tanking? 457.40 +23.11 (5.32%) Pre-Market: 8:24AM EDT

We're back to January. I can live with that.

No, you really shouldn't. If the sp doesn't return to fife fiddie and above soon, then hunert mille avg capx fo 5+1 mth won't, and the won guy doing most of the work donnt git paid.

You want to live with that?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I don’t think one should look at EI numbers in the normal way right now. A lot of these people will be back at work in two or three months.

... or weeks

 

[Fobble]

Elon knew about a weak Q1/Q2, 2020 about a year ago.

Are you saying that Elon knew in 2019 that coronavirus would be coming in 2020?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Meanwhile over at motley fool Sean Williams thinks oil being cheap is "arguably the biggest issue for Tesla to overcome". Trying to spin the inevitable end of fossil fuels into a negative for Tesla? Nothing to see here. Carry on

Have Cash to Invest? Then Keep It Away From These 3 Stocks | The Motley Fool

Good point! Tesla cars would be far superior to ICE cars even if they ran on pixie dust and unicorn farts...

Gasoline don't deliver itself to you garage everyday overnight! Gas don't have NetFlix!

Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

No, you really shouldn't. If the sp doesn't return to fife fiddie and above soon, then hunert mille avg capx fo 5+1 mth won't, and the won guy doing most of the work donnt git paid.

You want to live with that?

Sounds awful! No clue what that meant, lol.

 

[SOULPEDL]

No, you really shouldn't. If the sp doesn't return to fife fiddie and above soon, then hunert mille avg capx fo 5+1 mth won't, and the won guy doing most of the work donnt git paid.

You want to live with that?

Sounds awful! No clue what that meant, lol.

Are you saying that Elon knew in 2019 that coronavirus would be coming in 2020?

No. That guidance was b/c Q1/Q2 could be challenging financially - end of US tax credit and capx for Model Y was my take. Maybe China implied but that got funded since then. So he had to have a Plan B to sustain Tesla and timing for that new thrust would need to be very soon.

 

[wipster]

A more efficient air conditioning is one of the keys to solve climate change, for Project Drawdown:
Refrigerant Management | Project Drawdown

Now, I don't think that a premium, residential product (like the Solar Roof) will put a dent in emissions, but if Elon manages to create some building-size products (think offices, hospitals, plants, etc.) that could be *very* helpful.

On a case by case basis, Solar Roof probably won't put a visible dent in emissions and air quality, but it will collectively reduce the amount of electricity that needs to be produced by coal powered means, etc.

One thing I truly hope is being captured right now is the visible and quantifiable reduction in air pollution in the larger cities where the stay-at-home edicts are in place. I've seen some comparisons of LA, Seattle, SF, NY et al and the difference is striking! What great marketing for Tesla and electric cars on general when pictures illustrating the difference can be shown with the statement, "When we transition to electric vehicles, the air can be this clear every day" and Jimmy Cliff singing "I Can See Clearly Now" playing in the background!

Now's the time to plan for our future!

 

[juanmedina]

Bought 200 @ $500, I’m feeling confident in TSLA going up from here, albeit not in a straight line. Could I have waited for a lower price? Sure. I waited yesterday too...

Me too... It is so frustrating. I bought a few at $363 and some at $380 then I decided to use my HELOC and I was going to all in if it when back under 400..... I guess $500 still a good deal.