Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zero CO2]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Coronavirus Deaths Stir Calls in China to Clean Up Air Pollution

 

[mrdoubleb]

I'm back into TSLA. Some ARKK and AMZN too, after having been completely flat for nearly two weeks.

Curt, what's your take on the Thursday US unemployment data? Already priced in?

 

[adiggs]

ugh...
Canada had EI filing close to 1 mil last week.

If we extrapolate that to USA with the usual 1:10 ratio. That is 10 mil in unemployment. I hope it doesn't get that bad.

It's this current lack of information that has me selling TSLA puts (way OTM), and otherwise sitting this out for now. I see today's market action as more likely to be a dead cat bounce than the bottom and the start of the V shaped recovery. If nothing else, the world has too small of a read on the economic impact and how that will evolve.

In the US, I see a continued commitment to a financial solution to a medical problem. That provides a short term good feeling, but it doesn't address the medical problem. When I see a medical solution to the medical problem, then I'll start thinking that the economic damage has found a bottom and can start recovering.

I view the stock market and stock prices as being the tip of the tail on the dog. In this case, the dog is the medical situation; the tail is the economic damage as a consequence of the medical situation, and the stock market / prices are a function of the economic damage due to the medical situation.

So I'm staying out until I see, at least in the US, evidence that we're getting the medical situation under control. On balance, I see the central response focused on the economic damage and not the medical situation, so I'm continuing to stay out.

 

[Quesder]

I'm back into TSLA. Some ARKK and AMZN too, after having been completely flat for nearly two weeks.

Hi Curt
I feel regret that I didn’t go out with you at mid 500s
H
may I ask what is you purchase price this time?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Good point! Tesla cars would be far superior to ICE cars even if they ran on pixie dust and unicorn farts...

Gasoline don't deliver itself to you garage everyday overnight! Gas don't have NetFlix!

Cheers!

... or car stereos that can push air for days! (How many times I've run an engine just to maintain good music, so sad.)

 

[Causalien]

Please explain. I mentioned this same concern last week and the idea was quickly shot down. I ask b/c I'm still considering (trying to justify) adding a Model Y to increase my debt - another inflation hedge. Maybe more guitars or some old classic amps too

The reason is: The fed is talking about QE infinity. Also, I do not believe in the CPI data that government use. I measure inflation differently by only using items that people use daily. Things like computer and phones are stuff that the majority buys once in several years and because of how technology is counted in inflation, it grossly undercounts inflation. So if you take into account and calculates inflation using everyday "needs" item that 80% of the people buys, then inflation is close to 7~10%. And this was with TARP of 700 bil and interest rate of between 1% to 3%. Now we are talking about TARP2 of ~2 TRil to 4 Tril and QE infinity with 0~0.25% interest rate. The inflation will be epic.

As for bankroll management. Now is not the time to get into debt. You should buy inflation hedges with cash on hand. The reason you buy it is to move your position out of USD. This is in preparation to start buying into the stock market in tranches. But now is not that time yet. I could be wrong in timing the bottom of course and the way I am going about it in several tranches, the first 60% of it will be timed wrong. And FYI, I have already bought 3 tranches. 2 are in inflation hedges 1 is actual stock, but it's more of a income generating stock that was severely oversold. (like a bank preferred stock or utility preferred). HOWEVER, if you net everything I have, I have not committed new cash into these tranches are they are profit I made from shorting the whole market.

Inflation hedges that I sometimes use: Hard item that are sometimes traded as commodity. Famous musical instruments, artwork watches wine Gold silver platinum. (some other items that shall not be named). TIPS and maybe, just maybe. Toilet Paper. But beware, you are usually not planning on selling inflation hedges. They are there, just in case and also present some problematic logistics for storage. The ones that have more liquidity are Gold Silver and TIPS and can be used to time the market and I reserve those for when I mistimed the bottom and caught a falling knife instead of the bottom of the market.

 

[Causalien]

I just googled "inflation hedges". Seems like the best ones are TIPs, REITs, and growth stocks. I'll continue to HODL my TSLA.

Careful with REIT, this will hit Real estate, especially commercial.

 

[CorneliusXX]

On a case by case basis, Solar Roof probably won't put a visible dent in emissions and air quality, but it will collectively reduce the amount of electricity that needs to be produced by coal powered means, etc.

One thing I truly hope is being captured right now is the visible and quantifiable reduction in air pollution in the larger cities where the stay-at-home edicts are in place. I've seen some comparisons of LA, Seattle, SF, NY et al and the difference is striking! What great marketing for Tesla and electric cars on general when pictures illustrating the difference can be shown with the statement, "When we transition to electric vehicles, the air can be this clear every day" and Jimmy Cliff singing "I Can See Clearly Now" playing in the background!

Now's the time to plan for our future!

London weather was phenomenal today. Usually overcast with a faint hint of diesel fumes. Today the air smelled cleaner than i can remember.

 

[Causalien]

It's this current lack of information that has me selling TSLA puts (way OTM), and otherwise sitting this out for now. I see today's market action as more likely to be a dead cat bounce than the bottom and the start of the V shaped recovery. If nothing else, the world has too small of a read on the economic impact and how that will evolve.

In the US, I see a continued commitment to a financial solution to a medical problem. That provides a short term good feeling, but it doesn't address the medical problem. When I see a medical solution to the medical problem, then I'll start thinking that the economic damage has found a bottom and can start recovering.

I view the stock market and stock prices as being the tip of the tail on the dog. In this case, the dog is the medical situation; the tail is the economic damage as a consequence of the medical situation, and the stock market / prices are a function of the economic damage due to the medical situation.

So I'm staying out until I see, at least in the US, evidence that we're getting the medical situation under control. On balance, I see the central response focused on the economic damage and not the medical situation, so I'm continuing to stay out.

Good job,

Selling TSLA puts has been superbly profitable. I mean. I've never seen IV go past 1.0 before and we were at what? 1.8 around $350? That trade, It probably need to be framed.

 

[aubreymcfato]

On a case by case basis, Solar Roof probably won't put a visible dent in emissions and air quality, but it will collectively reduce the amount of electricity that needs to be produced by coal powered means, etc.

One thing I truly hope is being captured right now is the visible and quantifiable reduction in air pollution in the larger cities where the stay-at-home edicts are in place. I've seen some comparisons of LA, Seattle, SF, NY et al and the difference is striking! What great marketing for Tesla and electric cars on general when pictures illustrating the difference can be shown with the statement, "When we transition to electric vehicles, the air can be this clear every day" and Jimmy Cliff singing "I Can See Clearly Now" playing in the background!

Now's the time to plan for our future!

I wasn't clear enough: I don't think Solar Roof is "useless", it was just a bad comparison from me.
My point is that the kind of customer that buys a premium AC system has probably already a good AC system.
For the kind of problem Project Drawdown is talking about, we need to replace millions of old, crappy AC systems in hot and poor regions around the world. Probably not the kind of product Tesla has in mind to make now.
A great premium HVAC it's not bad per se (far from it), but it's not a revolutionary product (re climate change).

But, if Tesla can make a scalable product (like Powerwall > Powerpack > Megapack), that's good enough for big buildings, plants etc, *that's* something worth pursuing for the mission.

 

[Earlian]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Coronavirus Deaths Stir Calls in China to Clean Up Air Pollution

Had a paywall.

Found this, maybe similar?

Coronavirus deaths stir calls in China to clean up air pollution

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm back into TSLA. Some ARKK and AMZN too, after having been completely flat for nearly two weeks.

Best polka ever. Welcome back, Curt!

CH33RS!

 

[Mkorpal]

Careful with REIT, this will hit Real estate, especially commercial.

They also suck as far as tax efficiency goes.

 

[Nocturnal]

Elon knew about a weak Q1/Q2, 2020 about a year ago. My guess is he sought to create value in other places back then to level out cash flow now. And to me, that's either Energy or FSD and both are in play now. If either one of these break out, all bets are off on SP. Meanwhile, our "old" Model 3 just got the new Tesla Computer... for free! And this happened after the Corona news was out (last week). I'm rolling with FSD upgrade imminent, and timed to level out the Q2 storm.

I have been thinking that excess auto batteries (assuming demand drops considerably) can be re-purposed for energy. I keep repeating myself, but demand for solar/battery will skyrocket due to CV.

 

[dl003]

Do we have field observation of the current state of Fremont and GF1? What is Tesla doing?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have to think that the market has priced in crappy Q1 results in the current SP

Agreed. One analyst issued a note with revised deliveries estimates of 70K for Q1. That's a low bar.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Looks like we're capped at 500, at least for today. Macro's were trending lower and Tesla followed....Macro's just bounced and Tesla did nothing.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I keep repeating myself, but demand for solar/battery will skyrocket due to CV.

Is that the germs at gas pumps reason, sorry I missed the point earlier. But I agree, solar is printing money on rooftops now so could be FSD and Energy both surprising us all in early Q2. I have never seen any company innovate so quickly to where... "Oh, and one more thing..." every week!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sounds awful! No clue what that meant, lol.

Starfleet Regulation 46A:

"Regulation 46 establishes communications protocols in combat situations.

Section A states, "If transmissions are being monitored during battle, no uncoded messages are to be transmitted on an open channel."​

Elon Musk: "We need to make Starfleet real". -- Mar 2020

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

There are now 92 Model Y's in the tracker with delivery dates by 31 March. Still only the 1 for after that date.

There are now 112 Model Y's in the Teslike tracker with delivery dates by 31 March. Still only 1 for after that date.