Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

forum has lost substantial value due to the absence of @KarenRei and @FactChecking so I just had to cancel my $120/yr membership (ie. disable auto renew)

This was one of 5 or more.

This forum isn't about one or two member's contributions, there are many quality posters here - you know who you are.

However, something has gone very, very wrong with the moderation here, so wrong that I don't think Karen will be coming back.

And until this is resolved, I'm logging out too, and yeah, likely cancel my subscription as this and PapaFox's daily are the only two threads I tend to follow. Not that I add a lot anyway, other than some wise-cracks.

Cheers to you all and stay safe.

Lost 3 now... And a fellow Brit to boot. Even if he is playing for other side now......the EU that is.

I feel the need to chime in because things are really getting out of hand, and the only one profiting from it is the TSLAQ crowd (who are laughing their a** off about this voluntary mass suicide).

I think many people are completely overreacting to what has happened. Yes, maybe the mod in question overreacted, although it is not for me to make any judgment. If he did, it was likely out of frustation about the fact that so many people have been ignoring mod requests for months (I myself have given up out of the same frustration). But Karenrei imho is also overreacting by going away, and staying away. I've seen the discussion and it could have been worked out. And Factchecking went away out of solidarity, but I do not understand why he is persisting. What do they expect to accomplish? They are only hurting themselves and this community.

And now everyone here starts cancelling their subscriptions. What on earth will that accomplish?!? It only hurts the owners of this site, who are not moderators. And it will surely not change the situation. You will only hurt the TMC owners, this community and yourself. It's mass hysteria, with only one winner: TSLAQ. Everyone needs to come to your senses.

MY expectation is that we have seen the last of Karen. I expect FC to return if we have a replacement solution etc. I expect FC is talking C19 on another thread full time and will return in 2 months. Unless of course there is somewhere else to discuss TSLA by then. Just my hunch.

I put my two cents here since I've been a moderator in another very busy forum:

I doesn't usually serve the purpose of any discussion forum to apply censorship except when posts are insulting. Not everybody finds the same posts irrelevant. People can think themselves and skip things they find irrelevant. That's how it works in most other forums and people are still reading them. Of course, it makes sense to moderate Spiegel -level stuff when that happens.

Recently one of our Asian members got his post deleted because of "off-topic" story about seriousness of COVID-19. That was some time before COVID-19 hit the fan in Europe. It was probably the most important post of the year from investment perspective, but we missed that because of moderation. Not optimal.

I also remember that after 420 tweet someone was banned here because of "trolling" that TSLA will go back to $300 soonish. How that played out?

If there are too many so called off-topic posts people automatically start using topic-specific threads for more serious discussion. It just takes some weeks to happen. At least that's how it went in the forum I've been moderating. It also saves time&efforts if posts are only moderated when insulting. Hard to understand why this one should be any different. I very much understand some people leaving even it's a shame from Tesla investor perspective.

This got >30 likes.

Message to the mods: Do we have any mods in Investing now? Right Said Fred and ggr have stepped down. Can anyone please do the following:
1) Canvass opinion on whether the solution identified above by junas is acceptable to all (leaving this thread unmoderated should cause us to move to other more appropriate threads)
2) Confirm that this is the solution to all including those that have left

 

[Buckminster]

With Elon's comments on a Tesla HVAC plus HEPA filter, plus possible water filtration product, has anyone kept track of all the Tesla Home products they appear to be working on?

Soon enough, I think it may be worth fitting all these pieces together into a full Tesla smart home with extremely high energy efficiency, mass produced building components and far lower construction cost.

1. HVAC heat pump + HEPA filter + Water filtration

2. Whole-House Energy Management System
"Tesla Developing A Scalable Whole-House Energy Management System: New Grid Controller Manages Production, Storage, & Consumption" Tesla locked in a new patent for a distributed electrical grid management system, with capability to control everything from massive grid-scale energy storage installations down to your washing machine to keep everything humming along nicely. Tesla Steps Into The Utility Space With New Grid Controller Patent | CleanTechnica

3. Solar Roof

4. Powerwall

5. EV Charger

6. Lighting systems?
View attachment 525076

On the water filtration system, has anyone any idea how much water the HVAC could produce? I doubt it, but could it actually be possible for Tesla to make a fully off grid house product with no mains water or electricity?

Elon: "Could maybe tap the condensation for water too. Seems odd that HVAC systems make pure, fresh water & just dump it on the ground."

I have added this post here for those that want to continue in a more appropriate place:
Tesla House / trailer home / travel trailer / RV

 

[StealthP3D]

Here's a short article on Tesla solar panels (not solar roof) from the perspective of a local solar sales/install company:

What kind of solar panels does Tesla use?

As to inflation hedges, yes, growth stocks. Because they can actually make you money as opposed to non-productive assets like precious metals and bonds which, over the long-term, just keep your head above water.

That said, one of my better investments following the bottom of the great recession of '08-'09 was to buy a bunch of 10-year 2017 TIPS (Treasuries, inflation-protected). As I recall, they were selling for $0.82 on the dollar and, within a couple of years were worth $1.30 (in addition to the regular interest payments). The best thing about TIPS is it's mentally easy to go in on them whole-hog, especially when everything else looks scary. But the inflation that almost everyone expected to materialize due to the debt/bailouts/communist/Muslim/draft-dodging/not born here/racist black hater/free-stuff giving/unaccomplished President simply never materialized. At least not to the expected degree.

And my personal opinion is that it probably won't materialize to any large degree this time around either.

 

[Causalien]

They also suck as far as tax efficiency goes.

How is that?

Not USA resident so don't understand the tax consequences.

 

[Bunky]

Clinging firm to $500 like its an options expiration Friday

 

[Nocturnal]

I missed all the drama! Nobody cares what I think, but I'm more along the lines of "moderate lightly". In my humble moderation and extensive forum posting experience, I think it's best when there is a main topic that is loosely adhered to.

If I say that Tesla will do well because of the weather this spring, and somebody argues that I'm wrong about the weather, that's not a big deal. Now, if that argument goes on for dozens of pages, then it's annoying. Also, something completely irrelevant like if I posted a recipe for the Browned Butter Bourbon Banana Bread I made yesterday because I had aging bananas and I'm trying extra hard not to waste food, yeah ok, delete it. (it was delicious BTW)

Is that the germs at gas pumps reason, sorry I missed the point earlier. But I agree, solar is printing money on rooftops now so could be FSD and Energy both surprising us all in early Q2. I have never seen any company innovate so quickly to where... "Oh, and one more thing..." every week!

I'm thinking of the "I want to be self sufficient and feel secure" thing. People thinking being off grid and prepping was popular before, but we haven't seen anything yet. Solar + battery + EV + a big freezer and pantry is the ultimate in security for these types of situations (barring a full on bunker).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Clinging firm to $500 like its an options expiration Friday

Very apparent that our rally fun for the day is over, regardless of it the marco's keep going up. Oh well

 

[Nocturnal]

Careful with REIT, this will hit Real estate, especially commercial.

I'm positive that we will see another big round of brick and mortar store bankruptcies. Not only due to lost business, but customers getting used to online shopping/delivery and just forgetting to go back. These big macro events really accelerate trends that were already occurring. I hope Kathy Woods is right about the EV shift also benefiting. Well, at least Tesla will benefit.

 

[StealthP3D]

Nobody is gonna mention that the stock is up 10%?

The stock is up 16%

 

[electrichapp]

this runup feels like there is going to be a sell on the bailout bill news...
sold puts nearly worthless and closed.
keeping dry powder dry

 

[Mkorpal]

How is that?

Not USA resident so don't understand the tax consequences.

Distributions from REITs are taxed as ordinary income, so up to 37%. And as mentioned, a major recession tends to be harsh on them.

 

[Causalien]

I'm positive that we will see another big round of brick and mortar store bankruptcies. Not only due to lost business, but customers getting used to online shopping/delivery and just forgetting to go back. These big macro events really accelerate trends that were already occurring. I hope Kathy Woods is right about the EV shift also benefiting. Well, at least Tesla will benefit.

I believe this event will bring to the attention of everyone that there is a need to prep for an eventual repeat of an event like these for the next maybe 5 years. As some of the rich start realizing that they are inadequately prepared for it. As population density increase and more infinitely printed money causing inflation or stagflation, diseases gets transmitted more easily, and conflict increases.

In that setting, yes, solar roof with EV is one of them, battery is the most important. Farmland will increase in price. Bunker sales maybe? Real estate in stable bastion-like countries such as New Zealand (and now Taiwan) will increase. I am undecided about Vietnam as their land border are vast but they have managed this disaster really well too. UK, Luxembourg and switzerland should've been able to get out of this unscathed due to their fortress like geography, but it looks like only Luxembourg is managing well.

 

[Driver Dave]

Cities are getting to experience a time machine, taking them to the ICE-less world of the future.

And wow, the air looks amazing.

TSLA Long.

Make money, feel good.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

With the dow up almost 2000 points, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that any deal that's reached tonight will spike the pre-market, and then we'll spend tomorrow seeing the dow drop on "sell the news". TSLA will probably drop too, but nowhere near the same rate as the dow itself, since it's rising on the expectation that there is an end to the coronavirus fight.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Doug gives Model Y a huge thumbs up. In normal times, that could be a good catalyst for sales. Maybe now it will add to pent up demand.

 

[adiggs]

Good job,

Selling TSLA puts has been superbly profitable. I mean. I've never seen IV go past 1.0 before and we were at what? 1.8 around $350? That trade, It probably need to be framed.

I went WAY OTM. 175 and 200 strike April puts. But earning 3% on the committed cash in one week is pretty nice. My thinking here is to treat these like dividends - assignment is an acceptable fallback, but I really just want the premium each month.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

With the dow up almost 2000 points, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that any deal that's reached tonight will spike the pre-market, and then we'll spend tomorrow seeing the dow drop on "sell the news". TSLA will probably drop too, but nowhere near the same rate as the dow itself, since it's rising on the expectation that there is an end to the coronavirus fight.

I see your scenario happening except that I see Tesla being down more than macro's tomorrow. Very poo poo day after the first 2 hours of trading for Tesla. It did not seem to want to follow the macro's higher in the 2nd half of the day and I can see it selling off tomorrow. Just daily observations. When the macro's are up 10%, I would expect a higher than 16% move. I'm super happy with the stock performance over the past week though

 

[FreqFlyer]

Doug gives Model Y a huge thumbs up. In normal times, that could be a good catalyst for sales. Maybe now it will add to pent up demand.

What he states about the relevance of the X is interesting. Will we see the X sales decline more? Even with an updated battery?

 

[Mo City]

With the dow up almost 2000 points, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that any deal that's reached tonight will spike the pre-market, and then we'll spend tomorrow seeing the dow drop on "sell the news". TSLA will probably drop too, but nowhere near the same rate as the dow itself, since it's rising on the expectation that there is an end to the coronavirus fight.

I believe the expectation of a deal was priced into today's gains. I wouldn't expect a pre-market spike unless there are (positive) unexpected details in the deal or fresh optimism the economy may recover sooner than later.

 

[jerry33]

What he states about the relevance of the X is interesting. Will we see the X sales decline more? Even with an updated battery?

I have an X coming in a couple of days. The Y seemed a bit small, and the Cybertruck is too far off (I really wanted one, but the reduction of kW Supercharging on the S was the deciding factor 120 kW last spring, less than 80 now. Charging stops are at least double--30 min instead of 10-15.).