Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

So yeah guys, what just happened the last 3 days was a classic bull trap rally. I did use the opportunity to convert my 403(b) to straight cash though, it was a nice exit point. I hope those of you who made bank the last 3 days on TSLA calls know what to do here.

So, a $50 (10%) swing over 3 days is a bull trap? Please, you’re starting to believe your own nonsense.

All that’s going on is the usual volatility with a touch of MM manipulation to hit max painish.

Won’t say what I hope for day traders.

 

[Mo City]

How did you pull that off? I see a lowest price of 497.75.

$494.03 according to Google.

 

[brantse]

What websites are you looking at to get max pain? Also it seems like marker makers usually get the stock price to max pain by Friday. Wouldn’t it be a good idea to trade options around this number?

Here are two of them. I'm sure there's others, but these two come up when you do a web search.
Stock Option Max Pain
Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

That's the idea. If you have confidence in their ability to hone in on that price, you can buy/sell options just to keep yourself on the "safe" side of the trade. I sold a few shares yesterday, to better my price this morning, but didn't have enough conviction to sell call options on my shares.

 

[keydiver]

President Trump just criticized GM publicly regarding ventilator effort "don't do anything right". First, GM won't be able to deliver till June/July(?). Second, GM wants top dollars. CNBC did mention as a context on how quickly Tesla could acquire the 1k ventilators.

CNN also just said that GM wants government money to pay for retooling their plants to make ventilators!

 

[Ameliorate]

So, a $50 (10%) swing over 3 days is a bull trap? Please, you’re starting to believe your own nonsense.

All that’s going on is the usual volatility with a touch of MM manipulation to hit max painish.

Won’t say what I hope for day traders.

I'd love to hear both sides of the story, or rather understand Quantitative Easing better. Even if we get a negative news cycle for 2 weeks (likely) what effect does QE have on stocks as it trickles into the markets? I think it's likely this injection could counter negative news with the buying pressure. Then you've got the 5 DMA turned up, crossed the 10 DMA. MACD Golden cross (more prevalent on indexes as opposed to TSLA right now) if you're into technicals (i'm not particularly, but I suspect the "dead cat bounce" theory is based upon them). I don't see all the doom and gloom personally. Yes I have seen the charts predicting a drop to DOW 14,000. I think the feds role lately has been to stop exactly that from happening.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I'd love to hear both sides of the story, or rather understand QE better. Even if we get a negative news cycle for 2 weeks (likely) what effect does QE have on stocks as it trickles into the markets? I think it's likely this injection could counter negative news with the buying pressure. Then you've got the 5 DMA turned up, crossed the 10 DMA. MACD Golden cross (more prevalent on indexes as opposed to TSLA right now) if you're into technicals (i'm not particularly, but I suspect the "dead cat bounce" theory is based upon them). I don't see all the doom and gloom personally. Yes I have seen the charts predicting a drop to DOW 14,000. I think the feds role lately has been to stop exactly that from happening.

I don't do TA and I think it's voodoo but the last 3 days rally has brought the 20 DMA up high to the point that enough of a drop now will actually create a death cross in Dow. Yes, this is why I believe in TA as much as I believe in magic.

 

[SOULPEDL]

President Trump just criticized GM publicly regarding ventilator effort "don't do anything right". First, GM won't be able to deliver till June/July(?). Second, GM wants top dollars. CNBC did mention as a context on how quickly Tesla could acquire the 1k ventilators.

This reminds me of my "should cost" comments last week. Most companies just cannot do what Tesla does as we've seen so far. Tesla will come in at half the price, dual/quad ventilators upgrades, self-sterilizing, an app for the patient so music in their hearing aids syncs with breathing, all delivered by Q4, lol.

Kidding aside, I have no confidence in most industries of the "past" including some of the best brands. My whole life, corporate always placed Creativity and Risk Taking up high verbally, then did the opposite with everyone in isolated sand boxes and their own agendas, all looking and sounding tall and smart. Can you tell I've had a few stupid managers in my life? Many out for themselves, and nowhere near mission oriented like saving the planet. Only $'s. Huge difference for efficiency anything!

I do expect a touchdown from Tesla on this respirator. I have personally done all the steps required to cut and mold plastic, print PCBs, etc. When you have the design data, it can go pretty quickly. They will build 2 versions IMO. One an exact replica, and one or more with improvements, then decide soon which one to ramp in the end, if needed.

What a perfect PR opportunity to showcase the future of manufacturing in the US, and what it means to have a real business goal, top down and all forward leaning.

 

[X Fan]

RE: end of quarter numbers.

I had my Blue X in for service this morning-Charlotte. The parking lot was full of new 3s, a couple of S & Xs and about a dozen White and Grey Ys (all had dark interior). Very few were prepped....I wonder how it will get all done by the 31st?

btw: the Y's are spectacular looking in person.....

 

[SOULPEDL]

CNN also just said that GM wants government money to pay for retooling their plants to make ventilators!

Oh man, they are digging their own grave with this approach.
AND this makes GM look extremely weak financially, both now and future.

 

[dc_h]

CNN also just said that GM wants government money to pay for retooling their plants to make ventilators!

I'll bet Tesla is having some cool Apollo 13 type discussions, converting existing ventilation for cars and SpaceX for ventilators and setting up 3d printing for any parts they don't have. They'll spend 5-10 million and have production moving this week.

 

[copyhacker]

@KarenRei @Fact Checking

Please come back, your wisdom and contributions are missed!

This must be what it’s like when Mom and Dad teach the kids a lesson by refusing to do any more chores.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Oof.

View attachment 526406

Wow, such loyalty. This after GM stood by the president's EPA throughout its battle with CARB. Hopefully, Barra opens her eyes.

 

[Eugene Ash]

I'd love to hear both sides of the story, or rather understand Quantitative Easing better. Even if we get a negative news cycle for 2 weeks (likely) what effect does QE have on stocks as it trickles into the markets? I think it's likely this injection could counter negative news with the buying pressure. Then you've got the 5 DMA turned up, crossed the 10 DMA. MACD Golden cross (more prevalent on indexes as opposed to TSLA right now) if you're into technicals (i'm not particularly, but I suspect the "dead cat bounce" theory is based upon them). I don't see all the doom and gloom personally. Yes I have seen the charts predicting a drop to DOW 14,000. I think the feds role lately has been to stop exactly that from happening.

Right now they (Federal reserve) pumping in liquidity to just avoid collapse and sort of put ever everything on pause.
Bill Dudley (President of Dallas Federal reserve bank) this morning on post cv inflation: we don't know.

In light of this: TIPS if you have to have bonds in your portfolio. And for equities: productive companies with pricing power: TSLA, of course

 

[StealthP3D]

I certainly wouldn't extrapolate much from that. If I understand correctly you think somebody buying 500 put contracts (275k) is indicative of big money telling us what direction we can expect the stock to go? Many people could afford that, never with any intention to execute the contract (25,000,000) Small fish can buy contracts, we just don't execute them.

The biggest fallacy of that is not whether the buyer was a big fish or a little fish it's that big fish have a better idea of where the market is headed than little fish do. Never let someone else's bet make you second guess your own.

 

[gtrplyr1]

The big 3 automakers have been a fight for their life for a while now. I fully expected them to implode way before the Coronavirus crisis, this situation will just accelerate the inevitable. In once sense, I much preferred if Tesla just did what they do and we could watch as the big 3 folded in a more organic manner ... too many reasons to go into on a single post but the bottom line is the "culture" of those companies has been an issue for years ... management and employees but unfortunately this crisis is upon us.

Tesla will get through this and come out much stronger on the other side .... of this I'm confident.

Very proud to be a shareholder in a company that really seems to care about humanity ....

Cheers to the longs ....

 

[PlaidCPA]

Anyone have any idea if Tesla will take advantage of the market dislocation to do any M&A? Anyone know of any potential targets? Batteries, Transportation, Real estate etc.?

 

[mongo]

Anyone have any idea if Tesla will take advantage of the market dislocation to do any M&A? Anyone know of any potential targets? Batteries, Transportation etc.?

I have an idea: No
As does Elon:

Q4 2019 earnings call: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q4 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Dan Levy -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst
Hi, good evening. Thank you for taking the question. Just want to follow-up on the question on capital raise. So given the cheaper cost of capital and this is a real competitive advantage for others, why wouldn't it make sense to raise capital to either pay down debt or to pursue acquisitions, especially bolt-ons that could help you accelerate capabilities in autonomous or battery technology?

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
I mean, if you know of any acquisitions, we'd love to hear about them. Yes, sure. Sounds great. Who should we acquire?

Dan Levy -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst
Well, I -- given the importance of autonomous, I imagine that this is an area that you would want to accelerate, if you view it as a crucial competitive advantage.

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
We're not aware of any one that we'd want to acquire.

Dan Levy -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst
And debt pay down?

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Diluting the company to pay down debt doesn't sound like a wise move.

Dan Levy -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst
Okay.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The biggest fallacy of that is not whether the buyer was a big fish or a little fish it's that big fish have a better idea of where the market is headed than little fish do. Never let someone else's bet make you second guess your own.

My guess is it's just someone making a bet to the downside on the P/D that'll likely be out next Friday........which they have no more information than you or I.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Anyone have any idea if Tesla will take advantage of the market dislocation to do any M&A? Anyone know of any potential targets? Batteries, Transportation, Real estate etc.?

I mean if major automakers actually sell factories, I could see Tesla being a bidder. But there is no reason to acquire a bankrupt company if you're Tesla. The company went bankrupt for a reason.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Anyone have any idea if Tesla will take advantage of the market dislocation to do any M&A? Anyone know of any potential targets? Batteries, Transportation, Real estate etc.?

I'd love to see Tesla acquire something like a legacy bus or panel truck manufacturer. Not to integrate into the wider company, but to transform as a template for others using almost entirely existing personnel.

We didn't think the market would kick and scream this badly all the way into 2020. Time to start showing them the next steps in clearer 5th grade language.