Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tim S]

Meanwhile....

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Do you have a link to Elon and de Blasio's tweets? I can't find them.

 

[Cattledog]

I mean if major automakers actually sell factories, I could see Tesla being a bidder.

I'm not sure this is in their playbook now like it was 10+ years ago. The machine that builds the machine has pretty exacting 3D relationships for materials, machinery, robots, humans, batteries, cars, etc. Now buying a factory because it's in a strategic location with existing utility, transportation and labor infrastructure, sure. Build the new Gigafactory on the old parking lot, use existing factory as a massive warehouse until you find better use for its land.

 

[Phobi]

seeing the light...through all the FUD...

Buy Tesla Stock, Wall Street Says. A Comeback Will Happen Eventually. — Barron's



ex-Mod: Here is the link to the article directly at Barron's.
Buy Tesla Stock, Wall Street Says. A Comeback Will Happen Eventually.
It's paywalled. Please don't post links that go through third parties (in this case Apple News, which wants to get me to sign up with them before telling me I can't read most of the article anyway.) --ggr (ex-mod trying to be helpful without actually moderating.)

 

[Fobble]

Wow, such loyalty. This after GM stood by the president's EPA throughout its battle with CARB. Hopefully, Barra opens her eyes.

You are kidding right? GM stood by the President's EPA battle with CARB for their own evil benefit of not having to improve their cars' efficiency.

 

[Ameliorate]

Do you have a link to Elon and de Blasio's tweets? I can't find them.

Certainly,
I always find it best to hit the "tweets with replies" tab in twitter.
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Rarity]

This more dilution lower debt road, is the road I hope we travel.

I hope Tesla is opportunistic. If the Fed is throwing free money around (or the Chinese or EU Central Banks), there's no use not catching some.

I note that Tesla's big bond is seeing mid-$93 prints today.

 

[Mo City]

Anyone have any idea if Tesla will take advantage of the market dislocation to do any M&A? Anyone know of any potential targets? Batteries, Transportation, Real estate etc.?

For obvious reasons, it's nearly impossible to (1) guess Tesla's mood at any point in time on acquisitions and (2) have any idea which companies interest them.

Remember Grohmann and Maxwell. We learned about them when those deals were right at the finish line. This is as it should be.

Regardless of market conditions, we should never be surprised when Tesla discloses a pending acquisition.

 

[Tim S]

Most companies just cannot do what Tesla does as we've seen so far. Tesla will come in at half the price, dual/quad ventilators upgrades, self-sterilizing, an app for the patient so music in their hearing aids syncs with breathing, all delivered by Q4, lol.

Tesla's ventilators will be free. They are donating them to hospitals. They will literally save hundreds, maybe thousands, of lives over the next few weeks and months.

I live in NY and have family in CA and WA. This could save my life or a loved one's. (None of us are currently sick).

Back on topic... I hope people remember this when shopping for their next car... support Tesla, save lives.

 

[Mo City]

President Trump just criticized GM publicly regarding ventilator effort "don't do anything right". First, GM won't be able to deliver till June/July(?). Second, GM wants top dollars. CNBC did mention as a context on how quickly Tesla could acquire the 1k ventilators.

Despite their diametric positions on climate change and renewable energy, Elon has excelled at diplomacy with Trump. The current ventilator shortage gives him yet another opportunity, especially compared to GM's clumsiness.

I used to believe Elon would have to eventually step back and accept a more traditional governing structure in order for Tesla to "grow up" and go next level as a company. This crisis may demonstrate otherwise. So do Apple (Jobs), Amazon (Bezos) and several other mega market cap companies.

 

[ggr]

House passes historic $2 trillion stimulus despite objections from GOP lawmaker - CNNPolitics

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

You are kidding right? GM stood by the President's EPA battle with CARB for their own evil benefit of not having to improve their cars' efficiency.

Nope, not kidding. A snake and an idiot supporting each other is much harder to fight than if they were to fight each other. GM not having an EPA ally means they would have to comply with CARB (which ford and honda are doing, unlike Toyota and GM). The EPA not having industry allies subverts their case.

They need to be separated regardless of their underlying character. Calling Barra an idiot for supporting Trump should accomplish that.

 

[Pezpunk]

I mean if major automakers actually sell factories, I could see Tesla being a bidder. But there is no reason to acquire a bankrupt company if you're Tesla. The company went bankrupt for a reason.

i don't see Tesla acquiring existing factories ever again. Elon has said when you buy a factory, all you really get is a big empty building. any equipment of value is gone, and what's left is likely broken, obsolete, or not applicable to their projects. Tesla is better off building its own factories, tailored specifically to meet Tesla's needs.

 

[dc_h]

Right now they (Federal reserve) pumping in liquidity to just avoid collapse and sort of put ever everything on pause.
Bill Dudley (President of Dallas Federal reserve bank) this morning on post cv inflation: we don't know.

In light of this: TIPS if you have to have bonds in your portfolio. And for equities: productive companies with pricing power: TSLA, of course

It could be different this time, but I had a neighbor talk me into (let myself be talked into) buying an inflation hedge in 2009, since the crazy Obama administration & fed was going to create runaway inflation with Tarp and QE back in 2009. I sold AMZN to by some 3x interest rate fund. Needless to say, inflation and rates did not skyrocket and my investment got slaughtered while my opportunity cost was another 15x from where I sold. I’ve rebuilt from there and don’t talk investments in any specifics with neighbors in finance, I think they often don’t even get net present value and have no clue about disruption until after it’s happened.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I'm not sure this is in their playbook now like it was 10+ years ago. The machine that builds the machine has pretty exacting 3D relationships for materials, machinery, robots, humans, batteries, cars, etc. Now buying a factory because it's in a strategic location with existing utility, transportation and labor infrastructure, sure. Build the new Gigafactory on the old parking lot, use existing factory as a massive warehouse until you find better use for its land.

I think others have pointed out that some legacy factory sites have issues like toxic waste making them an overall liability.

 

[Rammstein]

I have a good friend that does wealth management for a big bank in my city. You have to have $250,000 to invest with him and he is all about diversification picking blue chip stocks. I think he gets his clients pretty steady solid returns. He knows I’m very bullish on Tesla and he is fine with that because he wouldn’t want to talk me out of a winner. The only thing I take issue with is he thinks if I have found a winner then I’m lucky. He says he has had a lot of clients want to buy a particular stock because of their future potential. Then those companies stock end up going down or don’t do much at all. He says it’s not about being smart it’s about being lucky. This is where I disagree with him. I think you can estimate a companies future profits on its future product lineup. That’s if you are almost certain they will sell those products at your estimated volume. I’ve honestly been looking for a sure beat like Tesla since the iPhone came out. Didn’t see Amazon cause the stupid media tricked me. If I had money when the iPhone came out I would of invested everything. I personally think it’s smart to wait patiently until you are 90% sure you have a winner and investing in that company. I question how smart his clients are and I question how well they analyzed the companies they liked. From talking to people about Tesla I realize that the average person seems rather dumb (even though they are engineers, lawyers, and analysts) and the media definitely influences what they think. Just wondering what you all think about this? Are we lucky to have picked TSLA or are we smart? Could be both. Smart enough to analyze the company correctly and lucky enough to stumble upon it.

 

[LJS22]

My Fidelity page was showing a big 500 contract put today at 500 per share. Not sure what max pain is, but gotta think buying calls over 510 is a lottery. Selling volatility with short term covered calls seems like a low risk way to capture a little bit back from weakness on C19 uncertainty.
I think deliveries will be on the new high end, but we will be over 100,000 C19 people today and with stimulus behind us, not much good news is likely for the next 3-6 weeks.

When people get their $1,200 they will just buy TSLA! That’s good news haha

 

[Prunesquallor]

It could be different this time, but I had a neighbor talk me into (let myself be talked into) buying an inflation hedge in 2009, since the crazy Obama administration & fed was going to create runaway inflation with Tarp and QE back in 2009. I sold AMZN to by some 3x interest rate fund. Needless to say, inflation and rates did not skyrocket and my investment got slaughtered while my opportunity cost was another 15x from where I sold. I’ve rebuilt from there and don’t talk investments in any specifics with neighbors in finance, I think they often don’t even get net present value and have no clue about disruption until after it’s happened.

Remember Cathie Wood's thesis of an upcoming "deflationary boom" due to innovative tech-driven growth and productivity?

Inverted Yield Curves Are Signaling a Deflationary Boom

If the "disrupters" are strengthened coming out of this mess, perhaps this could offset any resulting inflation (if indeed it is a concern at all).

 

[Causalien]

It could be different this time, but I had a neighbor talk me into (let myself be talked into) buying an inflation hedge in 2009, since the crazy Obama administration & fed was going to create runaway inflation with Tarp and QE back in 2009. I sold AMZN to by some 3x interest rate fund. Needless to say, inflation and rates did not skyrocket and my investment got slaughtered while my opportunity cost was another 15x from where I sold. I’ve rebuilt from there and don’t talk investments in any specifics with neighbors in finance, I think they often don’t even get net present value and have no clue about disruption until after it’s happened.

You probably bought the wrong hedge. Mine did absolutely great.

 

[dc_h]

You probably bought the wrong hedge. Mine did absolutely great.

I want to say TMZ, but that’s TV.
How did you make money betting on inflation happening? We haven’t hit 2% in the last 12 years.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I have a good friend that does wealth management for a big bank in my city. You have to have $250,000 to invest with him and he is all about diversification picking blue chip stocks. I think he gets his clients pretty steady solid returns. He knows I’m very bullish on Tesla and he is fine with that because he wouldn’t want to talk me out of a winner. The only thing I take issue with is he thinks if I have found a winner then I’m lucky. He says he has had a lot of clients want to buy a particular stock because of their future potential. Then those companies stock end up going down or don’t do much at all. He says it’s not about being smart it’s about being lucky. This is where I disagree with him. I think you can estimate a companies future profits on its future product lineup. That’s if you are almost certain they will sell those products at your estimated volume. I’ve honestly been looking for a sure beat like Tesla since the iPhone came out. Didn’t see Amazon cause the stupid media tricked me. If I had money when the iPhone came out I would of invested everything. I personally think it’s smart to wait patiently until you are 90% sure you have a winner and investing in that company. I question how smart his clients are and I question how well they analyzed the companies they liked. From talking to people about Tesla I realize that the average person seems rather dumb (even though they are engineers, lawyers, and analysts) and the media definitely influences what they think. Just wondering what you all think about this? Are we lucky to have picked TSLA or are we smart? Could be both. Smart enough to analyze the company correctly and lucky enough to stumble upon it.

"You don't have to do everything right. You just have to make sure you don't do too many things wrong."
- Warren Buffett

Investing is always an exercise in regret management. Successful investors don't get caught up in the chances they missed, because they'll be too busy living in the past to see new chances which come up. So I don't think it's a matter of being smart or lucky, because plenty of people who are both have lost their shirts in the stock market. It's more about persistence, believing in your own strategy, and executing the trade when the opportunity arises. If you can capture 80%, 50%, even 30% of the possible gains, you have still succeeded more than most people.

To address your point about being "90% sure you have a winner", getting in late is better than never getting in at all. I bought into AMZN when it was $500 a share, I'm not mad that I got in late on that. I bought MSFT at $56 a share after Steve Ballmer retired, and I bought AAPL at different points at $83 a share all the way up to $220 a share. I'm not afraid to buy things just because the stock price looks "high" if growth prospects are good. I have some TSLA which I got at $741 because I just happened to be adding to my share holdings during the wild rally from October to February. Do I think TSLA will be over $741 again? Yeah, I do.