Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

We all know to sell low and buy high. You think you're dealing with rookies here?!?

Some of us only know how to buy and hold.

 

[ckessel]

So, I've mitigated some damage by selling a put to pick up things at $445 effectively a week ago, then a $535 call this week which worked out well. However...playing next week has me deer in the headlights.

What's the latest guess at delivery numbers? Seems odds are TSLA will be flat to down next week, but I'd hate to sell another call and miss out on a $100 rise due to a surprise beat.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Mar 27, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $508.11
Volume: 14,595,295
Traded: $7,416,028,134.93 ($7.42 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 101.27%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 58.30% (52nd Percentile rank Shorting)

Comment: "Open Dn near Max Pain; Closed +20.3% for the Week "

 

[vikings123]

My personal belief is that the Q1 results are going to shock a lot of the naysayers and those who are currently salivating over the recent shut-down of the Fremont Plant.

I think Q1 will be great for deliveries but we will likely have additional supply chain, inventory and operational costs that could impact profits.

For Q2 I would not be surprised to see Fremont fine tuning the model Y ramp up because we know the demand is there for the standard range options and maybe they start producing the third row models. Q2 earnings call will be interesting, can’t wait.

 

[SMAlset]

Just looked at Tesla’s graph for today. What the heck happened at 5:50pm?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Some of us only know how to buy and hold.

I have plenty of other strategies, they're just successful 1/4 of the time.

 

[tinm]

Just looked at Tesla’s graph for today. What the heck happened at 5:50pm?

View attachment 526619

Oh that was me. See I sold a little at 515 today after hours and immediately put in a GTC buy at 280 and somehow the market took it as “sudo buy 276 shares at 280” and the market said “right away sir”

(sorry, a little unix humor there)

 

[Tim S]

Sorry. No idea what you mean. I’m not up on American politics. But I’ll assume that the war time president thing has to do with the Iran attack.

I think this is probably too off topic for this thread anyway. I asked here because it was GM that was affected and kind of curious if the same thing can happen to Tesla.

We are still at war in Afghanistan. Not Iran.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

We are still at war in Afghanistan. Not Iran.

Ok. Thought that had diminished to more of a security peace keeping role. I didn’t realize that was enough to determine a president to be a war time president.

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

The "after hours Tesla logo" happens a lot more often than one would expect.

 

[Thekiwi]

The "after hours Tesla logo" happens a lot more often than one would expect.

never use “market“ orders in AH trading.

 

[Thekiwi]

Ok. Thought that had diminished to more of a security peace keeping role. I didn’t realize that was enough to determine a president to be a war time president.

The “war time president” thing - apparently it was the only way White House advisors could get Trump to take the virus situation properly, by telling him that he is now effectively a war time leader like Churchill (he likes pretending he is tough, so this appealed to the draft dodging president). There was no technical “war time president” designation - it’s just political spin from the White House.

 

[hacer]

You had better re-think your math. The most glaring problem is the way you just added two growth rate percentages together.

1.029 * 1.023 = 1.052667
Personally I don't think the GDP growth can actually be measured to tenth percent accuracy. So I stand by 1.052 using truncation rather than rounding. Of course it's much more debatable whether GDP growth should match stock market growth. Many investors seem to think that overall stock market growth should be greater than GDP growth over the long term. Go figure.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

The “war time president” thing - apparently it was the only way White House advisors could get Trump to take the virus situation properly, by telling him that he is now effectively a war time leader like Churchill (he likes pretending he is tough, so this appealed to the draft dodging president). There was no technical “war time president” designation - it’s just political spin from the White House.

So, are people actually buying this? OMG .

 

[Prunesquallor]

So, are people actually buying this? OMG .

Sigh. People are pulling your leg. Google “Defense Production Act”.

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - this evening: Wall Street Week Ahead: Fund rebalancing could help buoy stock rebound

 

[CyberDutchie]

I have a good friend that does wealth management for a big bank in my city. You have to have $250,000 to invest with him and he is all about diversification picking blue chip stocks. I think he gets his clients pretty steady solid returns. He knows I’m very bullish on Tesla and he is fine with that because he wouldn’t want to talk me out of a winner. The only thing I take issue with is he thinks if I have found a winner then I’m lucky. He says he has had a lot of clients want to buy a particular stock because of their future potential. Then those companies stock end up going down or don’t do much at all. He says it’s not about being smart it’s about being lucky. This is where I disagree with him. I think you can estimate a companies future profits on its future product lineup. That’s if you are almost certain they will sell those products at your estimated volume. I’ve honestly been looking for a sure beat like Tesla since the iPhone came out. Didn’t see Amazon cause the stupid media tricked me. If I had money when the iPhone came out I would of invested everything. I personally think it’s smart to wait patiently until you are 90% sure you have a winner and investing in that company. I question how smart his clients are and I question how well they analyzed the companies they liked. From talking to people about Tesla I realize that the average person seems rather dumb (even though they are engineers, lawyers, and analysts) and the media definitely influences what they think. Just wondering what you all think about this? Are we lucky to have picked TSLA or are we smart? Could be both. Smart enough to analyze the company correctly and lucky enough to stumble upon it.

I agree we are both lucky and smart. The smart part is about recognizing the genius of Elon, the awesomeness of the product and the disruption that it will cause. Tesla got through the difficult parts without going bankrupt, but there were definitely a few close calls on the way. The lucky part is that this came out way later—if we’d know it when the company was in trouble we might have sold, lol.

 

[CyberDutchie]

The VW news on ID.3 is exceptionally bad for VW. At this point it seems that they are just trying to get it into "shippable" state. This will not be a viable software platform for additional vehicles and will likely need to be substantially re-developed before it is.

Volkswagen ID.3 Software Problem: 'It’s No Longer A Laughing Matter'

Well, I don’t know if I would trust this article to be correct. This quote is very suspicious to me:

VW CEO Diess will definitely have a few cars to show this summer, “but we’ll tinker them by hand so that something is there.” This has nothing to do with series production."

If they can deliver a few “shippable“ cars with software “tinkered by hand”, and the hardware is all the same, they all should be shippable.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I watch all your videos, Dave, they are great! I think Tesla will do better then the above, Elon will go for 500 or very close to it. I do not see a demand problem from Coronavirus. Those affected by Coronavirus who need financial support were never Tesla buyers anyway.

I got many dislikes on this reply to the DaveT question if he is too pessimistic. Let me explain what I meant to say.

Those who need financial support are people who lost their jobs and were living paycheck to paycheck. They were never likely to buy a luxury brand as Tesla.

At the same time, the number of people with enough disposable income that are canceling orders due to Coronavirus is unlikely to be higher than the loss of production capacity caused by the factory shutdowns. Thus, a demand problem doesn’t really exist.

 

[MC3OZ]

Well, I don’t know if I would trust this article to be correct. This quote is very suspicious to me:

VW CEO Diess will definitely have a few cars to show this summer, “but we’ll tinker them by hand so that something is there.” This has nothing to do with series production."

If they can deliver a few “shippable“ cars with software “tinkered by hand”, and the hardware is all the same, they all should be shippable.

Good point...

I'm still wondering what the actual problem is....

Perhaps is is old firmware in various components that are hard to drive, in this case all “tinkered by hand” could be is manually updating the firmwares... If may even mean flashing a new chip, pulling an old one off a board and putting a new one on.. that level of mess would be "tinkered by hand"..

But if it is truly that level of mess it needs a lot of testing... so I am not sure how they could be confident about a date..

If it is just more generally that the car OS is busted, once the fix the OS even a one off manual reinstall in all cars is not big deal and I would not call that "tinkered by hand"....

As a wild guess perhaps it is a bit of both, if they can fix the OS they can download new firmwares without pulling things apart, and if they have working production firmwares they are over the line...

Strange that they are talking about doing a rewrite of car OS or seem to be... if the intention was OTA updates can update firmwares it is strange that they can't do that via a semi manual process.....

I once worked for a company of less than 10 employees that designed and built our own hardware in the late 1990s and we got all this working..

We did have one demo for a major airport using a prototype version of the hardware and a very flaky download process .. but that is how all demos run...

While this level of upgrade may be new to cars, it has been done more generally since the mid/late 1980s....

This is OT for Tesla except to show how far Tesla is ahead, or more accurately how far other car makers are behind.