Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Replying to my own comment.. what I'm not sure how to reconcile is that Telsa said they had 1,010 Model 3s in inventory at the end of 2018. Any thoughts?

Fraud, of course. Isn't that always the answer in Shortsville?

 

[dc_h]

The SR battery is rumoured to be entirely different (in layout) in order to optimize costs, so the manufacturing automation is probably also completely different.

Less performance will reduce cooling requirements and focus on economy not performance could require less kWh per mile.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So when/if Tesla shows off FSD, I do think we will see a partnership. I doubt we see a buyout because Elon won't sell and the offer price would have to be like $2,000/share at that point to be realistic. I'm not talking about when FSD will be approved by regulators and active, just when it gets shown off that proves Tesla's path to autonomy was correct and not only viable, but will be the leader due to the combination of software and hardware built into every new Tesla and existing Tesla. When Tesla gets to that point, I actually hope they partner with someone to help build the Tesla Network or whatever it will be called. I do not necessarily think Tesla needs these companies, but it could be advantageous for them to partner.

So then I started thinking about partners.

Apple still to me makes me the most sense. They want to be in the autonomy space because they want to run their software services on the autonomy platform and they want to increase their software range into multimedia. Apple could be in control of all of the multimedia(TV, Movies, Music, etc...) and collaborate with Tesla on the Tesla network. The army of software engineers would be boost to Tesla in terms of creating and releasing new software features and content and the additional money from Apple could help Tesla continue it's growth plans 2-4 years down the road as fast as they want without worrying about cash(ramp Model Y, Semi, Pickup, TE, etc...)

Another option would be Uber. I think Uber is going to have a much tougher time than most think even after they're able to ditch the drivers. They have to buy all of their cars from a car manufacturer and retro fit them with Lidar(if they go that route), and pay for maintenance on their fleet of vehicles. While Tesla has said they'll have their own fleet, they also said they would let Tesla car owners use their cars as taxi's as well. Tesla doesn't have to worry about purchasing those vehicles and the vehicle maintenance is up to the Tesla car owner. So Tesla will get better profit/margins from their approach than Uber. Partnering with Tesla makes a lot of sense for Uber. They cut out the middle man in terms of buying and maintaining the cars, they don't have to pay for Lidar, and they could focus on combining their Uber service with the Tesla Network. For Tesla, Uber taking the majority of the workload for the Tesla network would free them up for other software features, multimedia, etc...and they would also get access to Uber's huge reach in the ride hailing service.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Frank‏ @fatropea
Last time I pumped gas (actual photo) was 10/28/18 at 8:21PM. When was your last time? ...or, when will be your last time? Be sure to take a photo for history. Future generations will find it interesting. #NoMoreGas #ElectricVehicle #Tesla #ICEHistory @tesla @elonmusk

2:57 PM - 18 Feb 2019
Frank on Twitter

I last pumped gas... last night. Both my cars are EV’s but had to rent a Jeep Wrangler to head out to Tahoe this last weekend(I have a RWD S and the one time I’ve tried using the official chains for it, they flew off within ~1/2 mile, ruining the trip)

 

[EVNow]

As happens every year, an opinion writer with an oil or ICE industry bias tried to mock the risk factors section in Tesla's 10-K. Here is what I added to the comments section of that article.

That was in the risk factors section of a 10-K in which it is incumbent upon any company to describe all considerations with potentials to negatively affect shareholder equity. Within that section of a 10-K virtually all public companies feel compelled to provide or invent a plethora of reasons that they could go bust at any moment.

I wonder if any of the oil majors mention EVs as a risk. I guess they just mention climate change ?

 

[KarenRei]

The SR battery is rumoured to be entirely different (in layout) in order to optimize costs, so the manufacturing automation is probably also completely different.

This is not accurate, based on what has been disclosed. Tesla is working on a newer, cheaper battery design, but it's for all variants. It's not some sort of "inferior but cheaper SR pack".

 

[mrdoubleb]

This is not accurate, based on what has been disclosed. Tesla is working on a newer, cheaper battery design, but it's for all variants. It's not some sort of "inferior but cheaper SR pack".

This may also be the reason behind the original decision to deviate from the S/X concept and not make the pack part of the crash structure / chassis rigidity of Model 3. This approach gives them much more flexibility with pack iterations as opposed to the two older models, where it would take a major redesign of the vehicle to do something like that. Maybe they weren't crazy after all?

 

[winfield100]

Hahahahaha lol Iceland is basically an artists' colony in the middle of the North Atlantic; everyone and their cousin is in an amazing band. That said, so as not to create lots of OT spam, I'll put suggestions in fine print, all on the same line:

Agent Fresco (deeply personal danish-icelandic metal+crooning); Asdfhg. (soothing - accidental musician); Ask The Slave (slow); Aragrúi (sexy); Avóka (jazzy / lounge / personal?); Axel Flóvent (light rock); Árstíðir (harmonizing; famous for an impromptu acapella version of an old Icelandic hymn in a Berlin subway station); Ásgeir (harmonizing with a beat; got a lot of views for a cover of Heart-Shaped Box); Bellstop (Icelandic folk/pop band formed in China); Bloodgroup (faroese-icelandic electronica, shared band members with Byrta); Borko (electronic-ish?); Byrta (breathy faroese-icelandic electronica); Boogie Trouble (disco); Ceasetone (rock?); Cell7 (hip-hop); Daði Freyr (nerd pop); Dikta (pop); Dísa (unsure); Emíliana Torrini (pop, one song used in LOTR); Emmsjé Gauti (hip-hop sometimes backed by a metal band); Ensími (rock?); Epic Rain (musical poetry); For A Minor Reflection (instrumental metal); FM Belfast (party); Gabríel (hip-hop); GKR (hip-hop, most famous for a song about breakfast); Grúska Babúska (powerful weirdness); Hatari (S&M, probably going to troll Eurovision for us this year ); Hellvar (metal, with the occasional borrowed riff from Philip Glass); Hexagon Eye (chillout); Hide Your Kids (rock... rarely see these guys anymore); Himbrimi (pop); Hjaltalín (slow, not sure the category); Júníus Meyvant (light rock); John Grant (pop, "honorary Icelander"); Jónas Sigurðsson (sometimes-political rock); Kaleo (light rock/blues); Kimono (metal); Kira Kira (bizarre); Kiriyama Family (dress like it's still the 1990s, play like it's still the 1980s); Kontinuum (metal); Lay Low (singer/songwriter, sometimes from old Icelandic poetry); Low Roar (often personal); Mammút (just a total powerhouse); Maus (rock); Mælginn (hip-hop); Mono Town (rock/pop/etc); Moses Hightower (funk); Mr. Silla (not sure...); Mugison (blues metal, blues); Múm (like a less famous version of Sigur Rós); Nóra (rock++), Of Monsters and Men (come on, you know these guys!); Oyama (shoegaze); Pascal Pinon (acoustic duet); Páll Óskar (faaaaabulous); Pétur Ben (rock); Prins Póló (not sure); Retro Stefson (Europop, plus ice cream); Samaris (breathy electronica, often with woodwinds); Sin Fang (um.. pop I guess?); Skálmöld (viking folk metal); Skytturnar (hip-hop); Sigur Rós (the name in Post-Rock and the background to like every other nature documentary); Sometime (acid electronica); Soffía Björg (almost a bit Janis Joplin at times), Sóley (cloud cuckoo lander pianist); Sólstafir (trance metal); Sudden Weather Change (rock - offkey vocals but nice riffs); Svavar Knútur (troubador + standup comedy); Sykur (party); Tilbury (pop); Úlfur Úlfur (hip-hop, sometimes backed by a metal band); Útidúr (varied international influences); Valdimar (trumpet-playing lumberjack rock); VAR (a spot-on mix of Sigur Rós and For A Minor Reflection), Vök (breathy, relaxing, some sax)

I could have gone on and on and on WAY beyond that, this is a seriously trimmed down version. And yes, I actually took the time to pick representative samples of each for you

yay, more pandora stations, tho "GusGus"&"Carbonbasedlifeforms" are older

 

[candersoh]

I last pumped gas... last night. Both my cars are EV’s but had to rent a Jeep Wrangler to head out to Tahoe this last weekend(I have a RWD S and the one time I’ve tried using the official chains for it, they flew off within ~1/2 mile, ruining the trip)

2011 for me and my roadster....

 

[ZeApelido]

Elon said on podcast that new HW is closer to 2000% faster than Nvidia gpu.

 

[Carl Raymond]

So when/if Tesla shows off FSD, I do think we will see a partnership. I doubt we see a buyout because Elon won't sell and the offer price would have to be like $2,000/share at that point to be realistic. I'm not talking about when FSD will be approved by regulators and active, just when it gets shown off that proves Tesla's path to autonomy was correct and not only viable, but will be the leader due to the combination of software and hardware built into every new Tesla and existing Tesla. When Tesla gets to that point, I actually hope they partner with someone to help build the Tesla Network or whatever it will be called. I do not necessarily think Tesla needs these companies, but it could be advantageous for them to partner.

So then I started thinking about partners.

Apple still to me makes me the most sense. They want to be in the autonomy space because they want to run their software services on the autonomy platform and they want to increase their software range into multimedia. Apple could be in control of all of the multimedia(TV, Movies, Music, etc...) and collaborate with Tesla on the Tesla network. The army of software engineers would be boost to Tesla in terms of creating and releasing new software features and content and the additional money from Apple could help Tesla continue it's growth plans 2-4 years down the road as fast as they want without worrying about cash(ramp Model Y, Semi, Pickup, TE, etc...)

Another option would be Uber. I think Uber is going to have a much tougher time than most think even after they're able to ditch the drivers. They have to buy all of their cars from a car manufacturer and retro fit them with Lidar(if they go that route), and pay for maintenance on their fleet of vehicles. While Tesla has said they'll have their own fleet, they also said they would let Tesla car owners use their cars as taxi's as well. Tesla doesn't have to worry about purchasing those vehicles and the vehicle maintenance is up to the Tesla car owner. So Tesla will get better profit/margins from their approach than Uber. Partnering with Tesla makes a lot of sense for Uber. They cut out the middle man in terms of buying and maintaining the cars, they don't have to pay for Lidar, and they could focus on combining their Uber service with the Tesla Network. For Tesla, Uber taking the majority of the workload for the Tesla network would free them up for other software features, multimedia, etc...and they would also get access to Uber's huge reach in the ride hailing service.

I think you are over estimating the difficulty of writing the Tesla Network software. Musk/Tesla have been planning this for years. Why wouldn’t the software be ready? It’s about a thousand times easier than the actual FSD software. Also easier than the OTA update system. Hell, I could probably write a Tesla Network system, and I’ve only been developing web sites 5 years. Uber got big by being early with a good idea, not because they did anything exceptionally hard.

 

[ZeApelido]

This podcast... have my IRA rollovers transactions finished yet so I can buy some more TSLA?

 

[ZeApelido]

Musk says Bitcoin structure is quite brilliant.

Satoshi confirmed.

 

[Curt Renz]

I wonder if any of the oil majors mention EVs as a risk. I guess they just mention climate change ?

Now there are some topics for Bloomberg's Liam Denning to gleefully reveal regarding the risk factors listed in the 10-K's of the oil companies.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Musk says Bitcoin structure is quite brilliant.

Satoshi confirmed.

I hope he mentions that it’s hopelessly inefficient and not sustainable from an energy use perspective. i.e. dead in the water.

Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index - Digiconomist

 

[RobStark]

By the way, Mercedes are indeed making >$35 billion in revenue in China alone, so with all the news that Tesla is crushing MB in the US, >$32 billion revenue now suddenly seems like an outrageous goal to set?

Mercedes does this with a full lineup of Coupe,Cabriolet,Sedan, MPV, SUV/CUVs and Vans some of which are designed specifically for China. Many of the vehicles are also made in China.

It does not do this with the C-Class alone.

You are comparing revenue for ~20 vehicles vs 1.

 

[M3Rider]

new elon musk interview:

On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk — FYI Podcast

Super. I am guessing not market moving until EOY 2020. So, FSD is feature complete this year, but likely not approved by regulators or might be BETA until then, requiring human oversight.
On the other hand, this might be market moving in 2019 if drivers are able to experience FSD and see how close it is to completion.

Elon said that every intervention of AP is uploaded to Tesla and analysed, which seems to be a confirmation of what was previously a speculation.

That last point is curious from my personal perspective.

I take a sharp exit/series of turns during ski trips on Nav on AP. Used AP like 3-4 times there. Actually, I get a warning "high curvature detected". One time AP crossed the white line there and scared my wife, but other times drove like a champ.

But right after the merge to another highway the lane splits into 2 dif. highways. AP says "confirm lane change to follow the route" even though you don't need to change it as long as you take the right lane at the split. So, one time there it tried to take the wrong lane at the split and I intervened. The next time I drove there the AP took the correct lane. I was quite surprised. However, last weekend it tried to take the wrong lane again at the split and I intervened. Wondering how long it will take me to train the AP? Maybe somebody else taking the other lane re-trains it wrong? There's no single right behavior at the split point though.

 

[oneday]

Now there are some topics for Bloomberg's Liam Denning to gleefully reveal regarding the risk factors listed in the 10-K's of the oil companies.

Demand-related risks from ExxonMobil 10-K: “...changes in technology or consumer preferences that alter fuel choices, such as technological advances in energy storage that make wind and solar more competitive for power generation or increased consumer demand for alternative fueled or electric vehicles; and broad-based changes in personal income levels.”

 

[oneday]

I hope he mentions that it’s hopelessly inefficient and not sustainable from an energy use perspective. i.e. dead in the water.

He did mention that it doesn’t really jive with Tesla’s sustainability mission.

 

[Fact Checking]

Replying to my own comment.. what I'm not sure how to reconcile is that Telsa said they had 1,010 Model 3s in inventory at the end of 2018. Any thoughts?

The solution to that is simple: Tesla didn't say that there were 1,010 Model 3's in inventory at the end of Q4.

(They said there were 1,010 Model 3's in transit, which is a very different thing.)