Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

I realised some time ago that i am far too stupid to predict the market. Even for these sort of political announcements it's best to give yourself a wide margin of error.

Lesson learned :Þ

While what effectively amounted to a suboptimally-done roll of ITM calls and some losses on a small number of puts was uncomfortable, on the other hand, being entirely out of February is some real stress off me (I was going to have to roll soon regardless). And at least my worries about a market freakout about EU trade has been pushed off to... some unknown point in the future

Sigh... just thinking of where this stock would be if not for these macros.....

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC is about to interview the ARK analyst who interviewed Elon this morning.

 

[lascavarian]

Musk/TSLA analysts coming up on CNBC at 3:38pm now.

 

[lascavarian]

FSD feature complete this year says Elon in his opinion.

 

[Unpilot]

Musk/TSLA analysts coming up on CNBC at 3:38pm now.

I know there has to be a counter to FUD. But for the life of me I can't watch CNBC.

The talking heads seem so clueless.

Always the same repetitive fluff and concerned faces...yuck.

 

[anthonyj]

Elon is giving shorts future ammo with a 2019 projected release of FSD. If he really pulls through though, TT007 will be the forum’s second billionaire

 

[Cherry Wine]

Lesson learned :Þ

While what effectively amounted to a suboptimally-done roll of ITM calls and some losses on a small number of puts was uncomfortable, on the other hand, being entirely out of February is some real stress off me (I was going to have to roll soon regardless). And at least my worries about a market freakout about EU trade has been pushed off to... some unknown point in the future

Sigh... just thinking of where this stock would be if not for these macros.....

Agreed. Some very strong headwinds out of Tesla’s control.

 

[capster]

I realised some time ago that i am far too stupid to predict the market. Even for these sort of political announcements it's best to give yourself a wide margin of error.

Sounds pretty smart to me.

 

[Tslynk67]

Totally OT, but Brian Cox is on Joe Rogan recently, well worth your time, and Joe already name-drops Musk after the first 20 seconds

 

[M3Rider]

Elon is giving shorts future ammo with a 2019 projected release of FSD. If he really pulls through though, TT007 will be the forum’s second billionaire

Feature complete does not necessarily means release. That's the unknown. If they are able to say: "you can use the FSD in Beta and liability is yours"... then quoting Elon "I would say I am certain of that (2019). That is not a question mark"

Edit:
"When will regulators allow us to turn this on WITH human oversight" - so, actually the BETA is not under Tesla's control, sounds like.

 

[Leo9]

Elon is giving shorts future ammo with a 2019 projected release of FSD. If he really pulls through though, TT007 will be the forum’s second billionaire

Agreed. FSD this year is never going to happen. I don't understand why Elon continues to make these kind of "guesses"...

 

[TradingInvest]

Tesla vehicle is just the carrier for the autonomy software. So Tesla could sell vehicles at cost and still have good profit margin. By producing in China with all-in cost of $30k, selling at $40k, plus $8k software, half million vehicles per year, that's ~$8B cashflow in a year. Would allow Tesla to build 2 new Gigafactories every year.

Global EV demand could reach 26 million by 2023 or 2024. Tesla probably can do 3 million a year. By 2026 EV demand will likely to reach 50 million a year. I think Tesla getting 20 million demand in 2026 is not such a crazy idea, even though we may only produce 5 million in 2026. The next few years will be very exciting.

 

[Yuri_G]

Elon is giving shorts future ammo with a 2019 projected release of FSD. If he really pulls through though, TT007 will be the forum’s second billionaire

Didn't say FSD would be released this year. He said it would be feature complete. The car will be capable of completing a route without human intervention, but the release will still be contingent on when regulators deem it safe. Sounds like he's very confident in the new chip.

Even taking into account Elon time there still should be some impressive updates this year.

 

[TradingInvest]

Agreed. FSD this year is never going to happen. I don't understand why Elon continues to make these kind of "guesses"...

I think self-driving features will be available later this year. It won't be called FSD, it will be called V10 autopilot and still requires driver's attention. In most cases users will not need to intervene, the vehicle can do all the driving. This is inline with what we have been discussing.

Elon made a reasonable prediction because he is closely involved with FSD SW development. He also explained that you can't just go to sleep in the back seat right away, maybe by the end of next year you could do that. I think it probably will take longer than that.

 

[Curt Renz]

I know there has to be a counter to FUD. But for the life of me I can't watch CNBC.

The talking heads seem so clueless.

Always the same repetitive fluff and concerned faces...yuck.

CNBC started last hour's Tesla segment with old podcast video of Elon taking a puff of pot, then ended with an anchor asking the ARK analyst if Elon smoked pot during this morning's podcast. As long as Tesla is not a CNBC sponsor, apparently it remains fair game for twisted coverage and inane gibes.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Didn't say FSD would be released this year. He said it would be feature complete. The car will be capable of completing a route without human intervention, but the release will still be contingent on when regulators deem it safe. Sounds like he's very confident in the new chip.

Even taking into account Elon time there still should be some impressive updates this year.

Feature complete just means that the software will do everything it needs for FSD according to the current development roadmap, but not necessarily well. And not necessarily well enough to trust it or release it. It’s a software development term. Things that happen after “feature complete”:

- debug the code
- optimize the code (make it run faster, maybe it only works well below 50 mph)
- enhance the NN
- maybe even add new features that weren’t on the original development road map since testing has found you need new things.

All this could easily take another year.

I don’t know if Elon does this intentionally, or he’s such a geek that he doesn’t realize he’s being misunderstood. That is, say things using highly technical and specific terms that would be misunderstood by the general public.

 

[lascavarian]

FSD feature complete this year says Elon in his opinion.

Probably some other comments on this (Curt?) and I have not seen the podcast but looking for the link.

CNBC had Tasha from ARK Investing on set and asked a few questions.

In their podcast they had a clip of Elon saying that in his opinion they would be feature complete by year end. He described this a bit and I took it to be basically door to door with no intervention. He did caution that feature complete does not mean regulatory approval.

Tasha was questioned as to what this meant and they said that their valuations of TSLA valued FSD highly since they view autonomous driving at a trillion dollars opportunity. They again focused on the lead TSLA has with their fleet experience with vehicles that have the hardware in place (cameras - sensors) to capture the driving world that the vehicles experience. Others in the market are progressing but they are limited to the small fleets and compared to TSLA they lack the hugh data required to make significant strides in the short term.

Asked what others are missing, Tasha said that quarterly vehicle hits or misses are not meaningful as they view it vs a yearly miss that would be a cautionary flag.

 

[M3Rider]

I think self-driving features will be available later this year. It won't be called FSD, it will be called V10 autopilot and still requires driver's attention. In most cases users will not need to intervene, the vehicle can do all the driving. This is inline with what we have been discussing.

Elon made a reasonable prediction because he is closely involved with FSD SW development. He also explained that you can't just go to sleep in the back seat right away, maybe by the end of next year you could do that. I think it probably will take longer than that.

AP v10 could actually be the first couple of iterations - add overtaking the slower cars automatically(should be a config option - whether you want this to happen) and recognizing some road signs, such as speed limits.
But traffic lights shouldn't make it into AP.

 

[Intl Professor]

Agreed. FSD this year is never going to happen. I don't understand why Elon continues to make these kind of "guesses"...

He was very clear and repeated, "only feature complete." Re confidence by Tesla ready for FSD, not until 1220, by regulators, "depending on who, later." Don't remember date for latter—1223?

 

[TradingInvest]

Feature complete just means that the software will do everything it needs for FSD according to the current development roadmap, but not necessarily well. And not necessarily well enough to trust it or release it. It’s a software development term. Things that happen after “feature complete”:

- debug the code
- optimize the code (make it run faster, maybe it only works well below 50 mph)
- enhance the NN
- maybe even add new features that weren’t on the original development road map since testing has found you need new things.

All this could easily take another year.

I don’t know if Elon does this intentionally, or he’s such a geek that he doesn’t realize he’s being misunderstood. That is, say things using highly technical and specific terms that would be misunderstood by the general public.

My understanding is that new HW and new SW will be released this year, the car will be able to take drivers to the destinations without user intervention. The system won't be 100% perfect, user attention is still required. This is exactly what I have expected, great to get confirmation from Elon again.