Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Lycanthrope
S3XY old dude
Feature complete does not necessarily means release. That's the unknown. If they are able to say: "you can use the FSD in Beta and liability is yours"... then quoting Elon "I would say I am certain of that (2019). That is not a question mark"
Edit:
"When will regulators allow us to turn this on WITH human oversight" - so, actually the BETA is not under Tesla's control, sounds like.
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Agreed. FSD this year is never going to happen. I don't understand why Elon continues to make these kind of "guesses"...
Tesla vehicle is just the carrier for the autonomy software. So Tesla could sell vehicles at cost and still have good profit margin. By producing in China with all-in cost of $30k, selling at $40k, plus $8k software, half million vehicles per year, that's ~$8B cashflow in a year. Would allow Tesla to build 2 new Gigafactories every year.
Global EV demand could reach 26 million by 2023 or 2024. Tesla probably can do 3 million a year. By 2026 EV demand will likely to reach 50 million a year. I think Tesla getting 20 million demand in 2026 is not such a crazy idea, even though we may only produce 5 million in 2026. The next few years will be very exciting.
Global EV demand could reach 26 million by 2023 or 2024. Tesla probably can do 3 million a year. By 2026 EV demand will likely to reach 50 million a year. I think Tesla getting 20 million demand in 2026 is not such a crazy idea, even though we may only produce 5 million in 2026. The next few years will be very exciting.
Yuri_G
Member
Didn't say FSD would be released this year. He said it would be feature complete. The car will be capable of completing a route without human intervention, but the release will still be contingent on when regulators deem it safe. Sounds like he's very confident in the new chip.
Even taking into account Elon time there still should be some impressive updates this year.
I think self-driving features will be available later this year. It won't be called FSD, it will be called V10 autopilot and still requires driver's attention. In most cases users will not need to intervene, the vehicle can do all the driving. This is inline with what we have been discussing.
Elon made a reasonable prediction because he is closely involved with FSD SW development. He also explained that you can't just go to sleep in the back seat right away, maybe by the end of next year you could do that. I think it probably will take longer than that.
CNBC started last hour's Tesla segment with old podcast video of Elon taking a puff of pot, then ended with an anchor asking the ARK analyst if Elon smoked pot during this morning's podcast. As long as Tesla is not a CNBC sponsor, apparently it remains fair game for twisted coverage and inane gibes.
Feature complete just means that the software will do everything it needs for FSD according to the current development roadmap, but not necessarily well. And not necessarily well enough to trust it or release it. It’s a software development term. Things that happen after “feature complete”:
- debug the code
- optimize the code (make it run faster, maybe it only works well below 50 mph)
- enhance the NN
- maybe even add new features that weren’t on the original development road map since testing has found you need new things.
All this could easily take another year.
I don’t know if Elon does this intentionally, or he’s such a geek that he doesn’t realize he’s being misunderstood. That is, say things using highly technical and specific terms that would be misunderstood by the general public.
lascavarian
Member
Probably some other comments on this (Curt?) and I have not seen the podcast but looking for the link.
CNBC had Tasha from ARK Investing on set and asked a few questions.
In their podcast they had a clip of Elon saying that in his opinion they would be feature complete by year end. He described this a bit and I took it to be basically door to door with no intervention. He did caution that feature complete does not mean regulatory approval.
Tasha was questioned as to what this meant and they said that their valuations of TSLA valued FSD highly since they view autonomous driving at a trillion dollars opportunity. They again focused on the lead TSLA has with their fleet experience with vehicles that have the hardware in place (cameras - sensors) to capture the driving world that the vehicles experience. Others in the market are progressing but they are limited to the small fleets and compared to TSLA they lack the hugh data required to make significant strides in the short term.
Asked what others are missing, Tasha said that quarterly vehicle hits or misses are not meaningful as they view it vs a yearly miss that would be a cautionary flag.
AP v10 could actually be the first couple of iterations - add overtaking the slower cars automatically(should be a config option - whether you want this to happen) and recognizing some road signs, such as speed limits.
But traffic lights shouldn't make it into AP.
Intl Professor
Active Member
He was very clear and repeated, "only feature complete." Re confidence by Tesla ready for FSD, not until 1220, by regulators, "depending on who, later." Don't remember date for latter—1223?
My understanding is that new HW and new SW will be released this year, the car will be able to take drivers to the destinations without user intervention. The system won't be 100% perfect, user attention is still required. This is exactly what I have expected, great to get confirmation from Elon again.
No, he specifically said regulators have to agree to FSD to be used with human oversight. So, even release of BETA depends on regulators.
Listen @10:53
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Sean Wagner
Member
Just the right spot to bring the following vid up [so few views!] [also, the ark interview was informative]:
Cruise Automation: San Francisco Maneuvers | 3,116 views | Published on Jan 25, 2019
Our driverless cars constantly encounter challenging situations on the streets in San Francisco. The driving seen in this video is 100% autonomous. This video is sped up approximately 2.5x. Do you have what it takes to solve challenging problems like this?
Cruise Automation: San Francisco Maneuvers | 3,116 views | Published on Jan 25, 2019
Our driverless cars constantly encounter challenging situations on the streets in San Francisco. The driving seen in this video is 100% autonomous. This video is sped up approximately 2.5x. Do you have what it takes to solve challenging problems like this?
No, this is using the new Back To The Future mode discovered in the app.
That's pretty impressive...but..those weird pauses seem sure to get a car rear ended.
It like a person behind would assume the car was going to go right away yet it pauses for that extra second.
I remember a year or two ago TT007 lost everything as he was overleveraged and the stock moved against him - is he back in the game?
abasile
Conscientious investor
In the ARK podcast with Elon, I was pleased to hear that AutoPilot "disengagement" events are summarily passed on to Tesla. Thinking of our own personal "disengagements" while driving the Model 3 with AutoPilot activated, this should indeed be a rich source of training data. It's also nice to think that our abortive attempts to engage AutoPilot on our local mountain roads truly are contributing to future improvements.
Personally, my guess regarding the SR is that, while there will be a new pack architecture, the SR will have at least 240 miles of range and may replace the MR. I'd like to see the SR at least equal the EPA range of all of today's lower-end, longer-range EVs from the legacy OEMs.
I find this very impressive! My enthusiasm for TSLA in the vehicle autonomy space is moderated by the fact that autonomy is a very hard problem and other companies are also working hard at it. That said, when it comes to autonomous, full-speed highway driving, it appears that Tesla has the most advanced tech.
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