Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[johnm6875]

I'm still waiting for my big $380 limit buy to execute....

I hope the next time I see $380 is after the 10 way split in 2023.

 

[StealthP3D]

Could the stock be up 25x from 2017 to 2030? That would imply $6,250/share.

That works...

It's pretty hard to see 13 years out. My crystal ball is only rated for 7.25 years but it's showing $6,000 and change in 2027!

 

[dc_h]

So much for the "super duper wiring" in the Model Y. Remarks by Elon in products and capabilities used to be correct with only timing being off (though some of the promises still need to materialize)

With the wiring in the Model Y we start to see a plain untruth. Don't like where this is heading..

Interesting that they encased all the wiring, basically version 1.5 of the wiring plan. Better to get the car built a year early, then get every feature completed. I’d expect encasing the wiring reduces wiring assembly time by 75%. They can continue to reduce wiring incrementally, but they’re already reducing assembly costs versus model 3 and can transfer most of those savings to the model 3.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Monro is being a dick (that’s a technical term) in this video. He’s disappointed that the world’s cheapest EV SUV cross over isn’t using a brand new highly advanced wiring system that no other car in the world is using? And then he’s disappointed there isn’t vehicle to vehicle charging capability? Does anyone have that?

Obviously Monro isn’t looking to sell any of his reports to Tesla...

If Tesla had two way charging, how long do you think it would take for people to start charging up at superchargers and then powering their homes?

 

[MC3OZ]

If Tesla had two way charging, how long do you think it would take for people to start charging up at superchargers and then powering their homes?

That would be via paid Supercharging,most expensive than normal utility rates, but great for an emergency...

I don't think any car with free Supercharigng will support V2G.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Since we no longer have the option of entertaining ourselves with 'VINology', may I suggest "Twitterpation"?

Elon Musk @elonmusk

Apr 12
Happy Easter! Follow the Bunny​

Okay now: Bunny, Money. Hmm... "Follow the Money".

Cheers!

 

[Dwdnjck]

That would be via paid Supercharging,most expensive than normal utility rates, but great for an emergency...

I don't think any car with free Supercharigng will support V2G.

My evening time of use rate is much higher.

 

[adiggs]

the process under the hood puts it in perspective.
... tons of fascinating details here

If you wanted to start a new thread @Boomer19 and post insights into market processes - maybe answer questions people have about the mechanics of how the markets work - that'd be just grand!

I know I've got something right off the top. Shorting stock! I see some of how it works from my POV as a share lender (at least previously, a share lender). I don't even really know what specifically I'd like to know more about - just anything you can add about the mechanics.

One observation I've made (I have no idea if it's true or not) - I've had the sense dealing with Fidelity that they figure out overnight how many shares of a company they will make available for shorting the next day. They might recalc during the day if they've drawn down enough, but I have visions of spreadsheets with calculations making these decisions.

 

[Maitri982]

Methinks now is the time to hit the Chinese up for another factory. They're economy suffering, ev's are the future, huge pollution problem there. They kicked out a factory like pez dispensing. Why build anywhere else?

 

[LJS22]

Looks like the story tomorrow will be Tesla can’t afford to pay rent.

We’ll be up another 6% on that haha

 

[ggr]

Some index options can be exercised after hours, are you sure TSLA can too? If it were, why would they impact the stock price? The stock moves from writer to exerciser, it is not a strike priced purchase from the market.

Yes, I have done it in the past. And when I've done it (or had calls automatically executed) the message from my broker always says "You bought ..."

Account: xxxx-xxxx Your 2 TSLA Apr 09 '20 $510 Call have been exercised. You bought 200 TSLA at $510. For details, see order #4242 on the Orders page.

 

[heltok]

While the stock market is down, an interesting take on Elon Musk:

1:40:50 and forward for the Elon Segment, for the fun stuff like 3min afterwards.

 

[CanadaEV]

While the stock market is down, an interesting take on Elon Musk:

1:40:50 and forward, for the fun stuff like 3min afterwards.

My favorite part of the podcast was 14:00 and forward...

Weinstein is acting so superior in this, saying Musk doesn't know anything, that he isn't taking any risks, that he doesn't really want to go to Mars, that it is all just narative to 'make the Moon jealous'. What kind of BS inside joke is that?

Weinstein just likes listening to himself talk, and keeping up his own narcissistic narative. Doesn't want to be compared to anyone with real genius. Full of the condescending smiles, 'We all know how totally right I am about everything'. 'Me and my theory'.

Who is impressed by this?

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

While the stock market is down, an interesting take on Elon Musk:

1:40:50 and forward for the Elon Segment, for the fun stuff like 3min afterwards.

This guy is an idiot

 

[UncaNed]

While the stock market is down, an interesting take on Elon Musk:

1:40:50 and forward for the Elon Segment, for the fun stuff like 3min afterwards.

I like his point that there should be more Elons but we are discouraging them to everybody's detriment.

Unless I misunderstood...

 

[JBRR]

Upgraded to Neutral by Credit Suisse, TgPx: 580 USD (↑39.76%)

 

[CorneliusXX]

They are a liability that they have to carry on the books, which companies like to clear off. Also, the offer came with a clearly spelled out expiration. And it sounds like you got a 3.5+ month grace period already...

I wonder if it is too late for these provision releases to be counted in Q1. Wiping out free miles that should have been wiped out earlier and releasing a provision sounds exactly like what you would expect a good CFO to be doing to manage the quarterly P&L. Or going back to those hollow logs as @The Accountant calls them.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I think Cybertruck is the most likely first vehicle for V2G, it should be a big battery and a "million mile" type chemistry.
Eventually most Tesla cars will probably have this feature, but I don't think it is a high priority.

If they are already including inverters so they can add outlets to power AC tools/equipment then they would just need to make the inverter slightly larger to handle a house. So V2G would certainly make more sense for Cybertruck.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Is your opinion still tge same when it cimes to CMBS? I saw that you mentioned RMBS so wanted to see your opinion on the specific area I am looking at.

I am guessing commercial entities will look at this as more of an opportunity to get out of long term leases instead of home owners trying to keep a roof over their head.

I haven't worked on CMBS directly and do not know the nuances of the commercial underwriting process, ratings methodologies and structuring decisions - so would't want to speculate.

 

[FrankSG]

I finished my Q1'20 Earnings Forecast:

• Automotive Revenue = $4.96B
• Automotive Sales Gross Margin Excluding Credits = 18.3%
• Automotive Sales Gross Margin Including Credits = 20.9%
• Total Revenue = $6.05B
• Gross Profit = $1.08B
• EBIT = $70M
• GAAP Proft = -$150M
• GAAP EPS = -$0.78
• Non-GAAP EPS = $0.78
• Free Cash Flow = $25M

Compared to Wall Street's current expectation of Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.10

For the full model on which these predictions are based check out my blog or the near-quarterly financials thread.