Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Do the heterogenous global entities with power to set policy support autonomy as a monopoly?

Depends on the "type" of the Monopoly:

• If it's a predatory monopoly that uses its market dominance to monopolize other markets, that's probably not going to be tolerated.
• If it's a natural monopoly that grew organically from first mover advantage, while the monopoly holder is opening up patents and is willing to partner; which Tesla's Autopilot might grow into; there's no real policy reason nor much of a legal justification to intervene.

In any case the EV market is still very small, it will take years for Tesla to grow into that situation. I think it will hit a trillion dollars market cap sooner than that.

 

[scaesare]

On the Smart Car the entire car is a passenger safety cell.

The Smart Car is like a passenger safety cell in a race car.

I trust Daimler Benz.

I trust Kandi to give me a good lap dance not make me a car.

The passenger cell in the Smart is indeed strong.

The problem is that there's very little crumple zone ahead of it to decelerate the people inside of it. That pesky "physics" thing means some high g-forces regardless of if the cage remains intact.

 

[elasalle]

I use IB and they show IV per each option. For example many of the Jan17'20 calls are currently 40-41% IV. They were above 50% less than a month ago.

5 more trading days till March 1st. Most likely lull till then and we will see new characteristics after that....

 

[EVNow]

The initial drop is another matter. The IV continued dropping since then.

I think that's the IV drop based on SP because of the skew. IV at ATM (30 days) has stayed mostly flat.

 

[mongo]

Electrek - this morning: Watch Tesla Semi electric truck accelerate on highway ramp unlike any other truck

That is a re-release of the March 8th footage. Fred really is slipping. He covered this last year
https://electrek.co/2018/03/09/watch-tesla-semi-prototypes-driving-cargo-trailer/

 

[Hock1]

Depends on the "type" of the Monopoly:

• If it's a predatory monopoly that uses its market dominance to monopolize other markets, that's probably not going to be tolerated.
• If it's a natural monopoly that grew organically from first mover advantage, while the monopoly holder is opening up patents and is willing to partner; which Tesla's Autopilot might grow into; there's no real policy reason nor much of a legal justification to intervene.

In any case the EV market is still very small, it will take years for Tesla to grow into that situation. I think it will hit a trillion dollars market cap sooner than that.

Wow! More bullish than Ark: $1T MC = $5,800 +/- per share. I'm with ya on that.

 

[capster]

We are talking about regulators, right ? If Li ion car battery fire had been anything but very rarey …. atleast one thing Leaf got right. No battery fires - even in the hottest places, with no BMS.

Didn’t Ford burn down a building in their EV development at one point?

In any case, while I did originally express my opinion as relating to the regulatory and insurance environment.
I’ll defer the regulatory explanation for the time being.

However, I will give you something to think about.

To move the regulators you need to overcome immense inertia and the substantial amount of sand that will be put into the relevant gears by Tesla’s heavily resourced and highly motivated opposition.

Find not one but two irresistible forces (not talking initiatives driven by individuals, companies or organizations aimed at influencing rather the realities of human beings and their civilization) at play that will move the regulators hands.

To;dr: To quote #5, “A poser"

[edit: additions]

 

[Buckminster]

Classic Elon
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[schonelucht]

Wow! More bullish than Ark: $1T MC = $5,800 +/- per share. I'm with ya on that.

Don't forget that just Elon's stock plan would have diluted the share count by 12% or so (1% per trance, 12 tranches no?). Then there are some convertibles that would convert into shares and regular employee stock options. Fairly possible that we are at 250M shares by the time we hit $1T market cap.

 

[ABCTG]

2018 California Brand Market Share

Total Units 2,001,995

Toyota.........16.7%
Honda.........12.4%
Ford.............8.8%
Chevrolet.....7.9%
Nissan.........6.3%
Mercedes.....4.0%
Subaru.........3.9%
BMW............3.5%
Tesla...........3.5%
Jeep.............3.3%
Kia................3.3%
Lexus...........3.1%
Hyundai........3.0%
Mazda..........2.3%
VW Brand....2.3%
Audi.............2.1%
Ram.............2.0%
Dodge..........1.7%
GMC.............1.7%
Acura............1.2%
Infiniti............0.9%
Land Rover....0.9%
Chrysler........0.7%
Porsche........0.7%
Volvo.............0.6%
Cadillac........0.6%
Buick............0.5%
Mini..............0.4%
Mitsubishi.....0.4%
Alfa Romeo...0.3%
Jaguar..........0.3%
Lincoln..........0.3%
Genesis........0.1%
Maserati........0.1%

BTW Tesla ended up 409 units behind BMW.

BTW II Much more detailed California Market Info in US Market Situation Thread.

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-18.pdf

Nice. Definitely lots of detail into CA sales


Looking at the top selling models in each segment, Tesla still has plenty of opportunity in the compact, and midsize car market.

Also in the pickup category, full size and compact/midsize;
The compact pickup doesn't really exist in the US anymore. I think they all got upsized since around 2008, so I would think there is an opportunity there. It might be something Tesla could look at.

And of course the SUV category is wide open for Tesla, with the compact SUV being the largest.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 8 minutes ago: Tesla is a top priority for automakers, says BMW dealer who admits Model 3 is affecting sales

On the company’s earnings call yesterday, (dealership group president) Dyke was asked if he sees Model 3 having an impact and he answered:

“There’s no question. I mean… they’re calling out to sell well over 300,000 cars this year, they sold a lot of cars last year. […] you can say all you want about their service problems and all of this, they just keep selling more cars. And I don’t know if it’s more of a cult than it is anything else, but my hat off to them. They’re selling lots of cars [..]”

 

[Chocochip]

VW being held hostage by their cell manufacturer (LG):

Volkswagen: LG Chem torpediert Batteriefabriken mit SK Innovation

LG is threatening an immediate termination of all cell deliveries if VW takes any step to build their own Gigafactories.

As a TSLA investor I rejoice: Tesla has clearly adopted a winning strategy by building its own battery factory in order to secure the supply of its potentially most important component.

As a supporter of the EV revolution, as well as an inhabitant of Planet Earth, I am seriously worried. I was excited about VWs apparent commitment to a full-on transition to EVs, so this type of setback is not good. It is in fact not good for Tesla either, as less (or delayed) competition might make them feel complacent in terms of persistently bringing costs down and improving their offering. The only ones benefitting from an EV offer consisting almost exclusively of luxury cars are investors, while the transition to sustainable transport gets delayed. Just something we should all keep in mind.

As a secondary thought: having a heavyweight such as VW transitioning the majority of their lineup to electric powertrains in 3-4 years will be of enormous benefit to the mainstream acceptance of EVs. The sooner that happens, the better.

 

[Cherry Wine]

It did not.

Support is more of a rubber band than a line in the sand, is it not? I would take the view that a brief dip into the $299s is a hold of support. Happy to learn otherwise if I'm wrong.

I think that's the IV drop based on SP because of the skew. IV at ATM (30 days) has stayed mostly flat.

View attachment 379307

What is your source for this graphic? Seems like valuable data. I know you maintain your own spreadsheet of this information -- is this taken from there or elsewhere? (Seems web-based.)

As a TSLA investor I rejoice: Tesla has clearly adopted a winning strategy by building its own battery factory in order to secure the supply of its potentially most important component.

As a supporter of the EV revolution, as well as an inhabitant of Planet Earth, I am seriously worried. I was excited about VWs apparent commitment to a full-on transition to EVs, so this type of setback is not good. It is in fact not good for Tesla either, as less (or delayed) competition might make them feel complacent in terms of persistently bringing costs down and improving their offering. The only ones benefitting from an EV offer consisting almost exclusively of luxury cars are investors, while the transition to sustainable transport gets delayed. Just something we should all keep in mind.

As a secondary thought: having a heavyweight such as VW transitioning the majority of their lineup to electric powertrains in 3-4 years will be of enormous benefit to the mainstream acceptance of EVs. The sooner that happens, the better.

If there's one thing to not be worried about, it's Elon becoming complacent on this issue. Not going to happen.

 

[Swampgator]

That is a re-release of the March 8th footage. Fred really is slipping. He covered this last year
https://electrek.co/2018/03/09/watch-tesla-semi-prototypes-driving-cargo-trailer/

Not slipping...............fishing for clicks during a slow news cycle for TSLA

 

[Hock1]

Don't forget that just Elon's stock plan would have diluted the share count by 12% or so (1% per trance, 12 tranches no?). Then there are some convertibles that would convert into shares and regular employee stock options. Fairly possible that we are at 250M shares by the time we hit $1T market cap.

Never know. Might be buying back shares in the interim. Good points, though.

 

[KarenRei]

Well, we're actually beating NASDAQ for once now

 

[Chocochip]

If there's one thing to not be worried about, it's Elon becoming complacent on this issue. Not going to happen.

That's what I keep telling myself, and I have no reason to doubt that thus far. But the feeling of the competition breathing down your neck has an amazing ability to motivate people. Remember when GM started advertising the Bolt's range, and they were clearly aiming to narrowly beat the Model 3? We know how that turned out.

 

[lklundin]

VW being held hostage by their cell manufacturer (LG):

Volkswagen: LG Chem torpediert Batteriefabriken mit SK Innovation

LG is threatening an immediate termination of all cell deliveries if VW takes any step to build their own Gigafactories.

Ironic, since VW has been known to pressure its parts providers to or over the brink of bankrupty.

To pile on:
If only VW had had a competent CEO with 15 years of experience in the automotive and battery business...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

That's what I keep telling myself, and I have no reason to doubt that thus far. But the feeling of the competition breathing down your neck has an amazing ability to motivate people. Remember when GM started advertising the Bolt's range, and they were clearly aiming to narrowly beat the Model 3? We know how that turned out.

The Bolt range had nothing to do with the Model 3. The Bolt had a little more than enough rated range to earn maximum credits under the CARB ZEV rules. Just like the Volt Gen 2's EV range earning the maximum TZEV credits.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

VW being held hostage by their cell manufacturer (LG):

Volkswagen: LG Chem torpediert Batteriefabriken mit SK Innovation