Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Note the call is at 3:30 PT, vs. the usual 2:30 PT.

Edit: Actually, it says the last call was at 3:30 PT. Maybe I have that wrong.

 

[wipster]

I sure hope the webcast goes well... you know Elon's going to get asked about his tweets...

 

[Todd Burch]

Up $63 now. Edit $67. Edit forget it.

 

[uujjj]

this will probably help macros over the next few weeks Remdesivir study: Fauci optimistic about treatment - CNN

I looked through the summary and I thought the results were kind of meh. Remdesivir IS useful in getting people out of hospital beds faster, but its effect on death rates is minimal. That means Remdesivir just moves the infection rate at which he health care system would collapse to a higher number, but it doesn't end social distancing.

 

[X Fan]

Anyone have a read on what happened to cash this quarter?

 

[JustSaying]

The real firework is 25.5% GM. Less car sales = higher GM. Unreal.

Holy Crap Batman.

 

[UncaNed]

The later the expiration, the more expensive the call. A Jan 2021 $800 call contract is worth about $19,000 right now. A Jan 2022 $800 call contract costs almost $26,000. So that extra security costs you about $7,000.

...which might save you losing the whole initial $19,000 thanks to the whole extra 12 whole months recovering time if there's a recession. Even more worth buying the extra time in a taxed account.

Sorry if OT, but compared to other posts, I think this should be OK.

 

[dl003]

Anyone have a read on what happened to cash this quarter?

Very healthy. 1B tied up in inventory. Cash 8.1B compared to 8.6B post cap raise. With neutral inventory level, would have gone up 500M.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Crazy thought. His tweet was board approved and their message will be that they should absolutely run Freemont AND they can contain covid at the same time... like they just did in China... with data. Not a key message, but I'll listen for it.

 

[Singuy]

I sure hope the webcast goes well... you know Elon's going to get asked about his tweets...

Seems like wall street liked his tweets based on the report prior to earnings no?

A CEO defending his company, don't know what the big deal is. Cali is setting a precedent of closing indefinitely until a vaccine is out which would be devastating to everything.

 

[bkp_duke]

I looked through the summary and I thought the results were kind of meh. Remdesivir IS useful in getting people out of hospital beds faster, but its effect on death rates is minimal. That means Remdesivir just moves the infection rate at which he health care system would collapse to a higher number, but it doesn't end social distancing.

As a physician, I can tell you this is common for antivirals. You don't see the same level of efficacy out of them that you do with antibiotics against bacteria.

The results for mortality were actually deferred, as Gilead said they could not power from the current study data for that at this time.

 

[Curt Renz]

Thanks Curt, I knew this song for 38 years and never learned its name. Now I know.
William Tell Overture Finale

You're welcome. Here's how I've known it for over 70 years:

 

[LN1_Casey]

Note the call is at 3:30 PT, vs. the usual 2:30 PT.

Edit: Actually, it says the last call was at 3:30 PT. Maybe I have that wrong.

I'll have to catch it in the morning, it's nearly midnight here.

I wonder how much deferred Revenue was brought forward after releasing the last Autopilot update?

I personally don't think they did, not for AP. They did recognize some with the previous releasing during Q1, but they only released city driving well into Q2, I think it was last week or so?

Now, they may have delayed results from last update in Q4.

 

[vikings123]

Anyone have a read on what happened to cash this quarter?

Yes, this is in the report: Quarter-end cash and cash equivalents increased by $1.8B QoQ to $8.1B, driven mainly by our recent $2.3B capital raise and offset by negative quarterly free cash flow of $895M

 

[Nocturnal]

This definitely makes Q2 more interesting. Yes, sales will be taking a hit, but that applies to almost every company on the planet. This completely validates Tesla's business, and we also have lots of information from competitors dropping their EVs. People expecting a big drop in Q2 are going to be very disappointed I think. Plus battery day will be some kind of bonus, maybe a big one.

 

[LJS22]

If I’m Elon I’m going to Newsom and telling him “Tesla is the most important auto company of this decade, I’m opening my damn factory”

 

[Quesder]

this will probably help macros over the next few weeks Remdesivir study: Fauci optimistic about treatment - CNN

Right, Almeda county, Fremont the city, better to learn that and allow Tesla to reopen next week.

 

[dakh]

General agreement here.

It is unclear what hardware training capacity, then hardware inference capacity (on each car) will be needed for FSD, but the demonstration of improvements throughout the year on a technology that could be worth trillions of dollars means even a perceived change from 5% to 10% chance that Tesla will get there would be a doubling of stock price

Yep. Honestly I'm not that worried about inference capacity. So sure, maybe they'll need a computer upgrade. They're already working on the next gen. Say the cost of next gen silicone/box is $1K. We know they are made to be easy to swap. So as long as the sensor suite is good, it's no big deal.

I don't for a minute discount the possibility that the current situation is going to end up as, maybe unintentional, but still a clever ploy to gather training data. If FSD cannot be done with the current hardware (compute and sensors), but is instrumental in making FSD possible much quicker, I don't think there will be many stones thrown Tesla's way for that. They'll find ways to make it up to people who paid for it.

 

[MartinAustin]

What is the prognosis for S&P500 inclusion? is this unexpected profit still not enough?

 

[LJS22]

This definitely makes Q2 more interesting. Yes, sales will be taking a hit, but that applies to almost every company on the planet. This completely validates Tesla's business, and we also have lots of information from competitors dropping their EVs. People expecting a big drop in Q2 are going to be very disappointed I think. Plus battery day will be some kind of bonus, maybe a big one.

You gotta wonder if the furlough will help on this quarter. There’s a sweet spot to getting production going and money saved, I’m sure Elon has it nailed down to the date.