With regard to the timing of Fremont reopening, and consequently possible S&P500 inclusion, I think it's important to consider two things:
- As far as I can tell, there currently is no coherent plan for exiting lockdown in California, or anywhere in the US (or most of the western world for that matter), without causing a sharp second wave, forcing us right back into lockdown. This, combined with the extreme political pressure of the situation may well lead to rushed and/or poorly thought out policies, i.e. extreme political volatility wrt COVID-19.
- In the current political climate, "maintaining lockdown" is seen as a democratic policy and "opening the country" as a republican one. This may well lead to California erring on the side of ending lockdown too late, purely for tribal signaling.
In short:
Predicting the end of the Californian lockdown is basically impossible, but I expect it to happen late rather than early.
I disagree with some of the points within this post, including the final takeaway. Governor Newsom has shown a pragmatism that goes beyond catering to his base at every opportunity -- case in point, praising Trump as needed in order to secure resources/assistance from the federal government (a sad reality, but here we are). Also, he hasn't gone out of his way to bash the President/Feds when he easily could have (broken vents). I also think Newsom is savvy enough to understand that he is enjoying a bump in opinion polls for taking decisive action when needed, and that any such goodwill would rapidly vanish in the face of widespread perception of an unnecessary lockdown. I think he badly wants to get the economy going again as soon as possible based upon the input of public health experts -- in fact, he is already telegraphing that the process will begin sooner than later, with comments like schools could resume as early as July, etc., etc.
If California residents remain smart and diligent in their approach to dealing with SARS-CoV-2, meaning reasonable distancing measures, proper use of PPE, etc., and we don't get a spike in COVID-19 cases, and we have the testing/tracing capabilities widely thought of as necessary to move to a stage of life beyond lockdown, I think this state could open up sooner than later. I wholeheartedly disagree with the notion that Newsom would keep California on lockdown simply for throwing meat to his base -- that would be political suicide. Democratic voters are much more quick to turn on their representatives when said reps make choices not supported by the facts.
Unfortunately for Tesla, I believe California's Executive Order is superseded by more restrictive local orders, and Bay Area county health officials, who have shown that they are willing to take risks and err on the side of caution, will likely feel less public pressure to open earlier than later. We could be in a position where a California-wide order is loosened and Tesla production is still sidelined by a more restrictive Alameda county-specific order for awhile longer. If I were Tesla, I would be having conversations with county officials
now, asserting my experience with this issue as evinced by GF3, and arguing for an exemption from an extended lockdown order contingent upon best practices to limit the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within the factory.
