Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Boomer19]

Well, it looks like we got our gains in the run-up to the excellent Q1 report. Considering the environment we are operating in this is not bad and leaves the door open for future gains over the next couple of months.

This is the beauty of being a long-term investor, you can keep your eye on the company, not the share price. And I like what I see.

i like it too

and another reason not to ply earnings or events too near the event

play it from a distance if that what you like to do. give yourself time to recover.

like i said in another post, we’ll probably be back to 875 next wednesday. that’s just tesla


won’t be the first time this year we’ve seen thursday and friday be ugly only to be followed by breakout the following M-Wed

 

[Christine69420]

Today's action mostly profit taking you think?

Dan

Max Pain is 750 and tomorrow is Friday. This morning I thought; no way - too far away.

 

[SageBrush]

Am I reading correctly that the gross margin calc includes the tax credit ?

 

[EL0NTRK]

My wife has been asking me to sell our stocks to take profit and then wait for it to drop to rebuy. I'm in the long camp and did not want to time the market since there is no guarantee that we can buy back at lower price.
So you can imagine her madness when we didn't sell when stock went to 960 only to see it drop to 300+ weeks later.
Yesterday, she told me to sell today. So I didn't want to sell at 860 when market opened.
Now it dropped 100 points.

On one hand, I understand her logic. On the other hand, I think it's a better strategy to hold it long term and don't just watch it daily and worry about timing it.

What your advice?

 

[mongo]

Am I reading correctly that the gross margin calc includes the tax credit ?

View attachment 537495

Yeppers
Part of the profit from making and selling the car.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

LMAO we were up 4% and suddenly it started tanking. I got my calls out right around +0.3% and now we're down 4% on a day after a significant earnings best.

Yup, the stock is TSLA. I'm sure as hell not here because this stock is boring.

I wonder if I should get some fresh calls on Friday. These calls I just sold were getting stale anyways.

 

[XHabjab]

I’ve always argued that Tesla is in a knife-fight with the fossil fuel industry. They will not go quietly into the night. This fight is long from over—settle in, it going to be epic.

Celtics-Lakers
Yankees-Dodgers
Ali-Frazier

Full Contact Sport. I for one wouldn’t have it any different.

But it's like that here and we're all supposedly friends.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

What your advice?

My wife has been asking me to sell our stocks to take profit and then wait for it to drop to rebuy. I'm in the long camp and did not want to time the market since there is no guarantee that we can buy back at lower price.
So you can imagine her madness when we didn't sell when stock went to 960 only to see it drop to 300+ weeks later.
Yesterday, she told me to sell today. So I didn't want to sell at 860 when market opened.
Now it dropped 100 points.

On one hand, I understand her logic. On the other hand, I think it's a better strategy to hold it long term and don't just watch it daily and worry about timing it.

What your advice?

"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"

 

[SpeedGoat]

There are valid arguments from both side, but extreme measures (from both ends) seems to do more harm than good.

From one of Elon Musk's tweet he included data from data.chhs.ca.gov which shows that the hospital bed occupancy projection with intervention is wildly overestimating actual occupancy.

That indicated the current lockdown measures are perhaps overly restrictive, where the secondary impact from lockdown could be on the same order of magnitude as covid19, such as
- underutilized hospital occupancy compared to pre covid19 means that a lot of cases that would normally be treated are not being treated.
- elective procedure can include preventive/early measures for a more serious underlying disease, like biopsy for detecting cancer early.
- impact of unemployment will start being noticeable and accelerates

From another tweet by Elon, he is not suggesting lifting the lockdown measures completely. The current restriction placed on business are overly restrictive that it likely does more aggregated harm in total (because of secondary impact) compared to controlled lifting of lockdown measures. Simplified:
A) Let's keep the current lockdown going and see what happens
B) Let's carefully evaluate where we are, and come up with necessary measures to reopen economy carefully and safely.
C) Let's just reopen everything.

Elon Musk seems to be in the B) camp. Both A) and C) option will likely do a larger aggregated damage (i.e. covid19 + secondary damage). Alameda County so far seems to be in the A) camp.

Relevance to TSLA: B) option should be the optimal solution that minimizes overall damages. Given what Tesla learned with giga shanghai, fremont plant can copy their mitigation technique and not introduce additional risk.

The problem is that this has become political and there are a lot of people who simply can't think once politics is involved.

They will tell you they are being rational and following "science," but any discussion of how to adjust current measures generates a 100% emotional response. (which is anything but scientific)

Elon is right to question whether the draconian measures in place are actually justified and whether less restrictive measures would result in a better outcome for society as a whole... and guess what...ultimately people are going to come around to his point of view. He is (as usual) ahead of the curve, but you can already see the general public starting to reject the most extreme of these measures.

In my area (a deep blue suburban county) the local officials have tried to close all local parks and parking lots near local trails. For weeks the public basically stayed away, but over time people have started tearing down the signs and moving the barricades so that they can access their parks and trails. Families are out walking, biking, fishing, and in general making the best of life. So long as they are reasonably prudent they aren't taking any meaningful risk in doing so. This is in an sense civil disobedience of the most elemental kind. Reasonable people are using their heads and choosing to ignore rules imposed on a blanket basis with no actual grounding in science.

 

[Curt Renz]

They've been shoving TSLA down through round number prices typically set as stop loss limits by weak longs. That leads to a cascade of selling analogous to toppling dominoes. However, tomorrow begins a new month and pension funds will receive fresh cash to put to work. I suspect they will want to add some Tesla, after it surprisingly reported its third consecutive quarterly profits yesterday and analysts raised price targets. But today they and allied hedge funds and market makers may be working hard to push TSLA to bargain prices before any purchases tomorrow.

 

[Ameliorate]

My wife has been asking me to sell our stocks to take profit and then wait for it to drop to rebuy. I'm in the long camp and did not want to time the market since there is no guarantee that we can buy back at lower price.
So you can imagine her madness when we didn't sell when stock went to 960 only to see it drop to 300+ weeks later.
Yesterday, she told me to sell today. So I didn't want to sell at 860 when market opened.
Now it dropped 100 points.

On one hand, I understand her logic. On the other hand, I think it's a better strategy to hold it long term and don't just watch it daily and worry about timing it.

What your advice?

She got lucky with the timing and that only serves to bolster confidence in an area that you should not have - thinking you can time the markets. Suggestion would be trade a small portion so you both feel good and keep the rest long, as the long holdings have the highest chance of success.

I trade but I'm also sitting at home watching this thing and reading for 6+ hours a day and now that I suspect most of the violent downward movements are over (macros) I'm quite content just holding most positions.

 

[Nb1277]

I’m inclined to call BS on Einhorn but I don’t have the insight into the accounting details. TSLA is my largest position by a wide margin so I’m hoping someone can put my mind at ease on the accounts receivable question. Is this a concern? I imagine not but why not?

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

tsla all-in @ 770

 

[LN1_Casey]

My wife has been asking me to sell our stocks to take profit and then wait for it to drop to rebuy. I'm in the long camp and did not want to time the market since there is no guarantee that we can buy back at lower price.
So you can imagine her madness when we didn't sell when stock went to 960 only to see it drop to 300+ weeks later.
Yesterday, she told me to sell today. So I didn't want to sell at 860 when market opened.
Now it dropped 100 points.

On one hand, I understand her logic. On the other hand, I think it's a better strategy to hold it long term and don't just watch it daily and worry about timing it.

What your advice?

Not advice but,

Don't forget about taxes. If you're trading in a tax account, and keep the stocks less than a year, you'll pay a lot more in taxes on them. Sometimes it's better to just wait.

Also, hindsight is always much better to say 'should-a-would-a-could-a" but really, no one has the knowledge to truly time the market. The low may be 790, then never touch below 900 again, or it may never go back above 650.

If I must sell, or buy for that matter, my personal preferred method is by steps if I'm able. A certain % at X amount, then another % at Y, and then some more at Z. Enables me to "catch the low", and if the stock jumps back up suddenly as it randomly does, I'd have made some purchases before it did so and hopefully catch a better ride up. That's what I did this last drop down, and my average of those buys is still below today's SP, so I'm happy with my purchases.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yesterday in AH trading after the report came out, the SP was around ~$880, now its more than $100 lower.
What is this $100 drop based on ? All I see is raised PT reports and positive feedback on various media sites.
Market reaction makes no sense, not the first time mind you...

What's more confusing to me is that people who have been around the block more than once still expect the share price to somehow correlate with this neat and tidy financial model where all the columns add up every day.

We know it doesn't work that way which is why buy and hold and ignoring the gyrations (except to add when opportunities present) is proven by time and makes so much sense and yet people still seem confused when share prices don't behave predictably! If you don't want to be constantly surprised/confused/disappointed/crushed/elated/margin called/etc. just come to grips with this simple fact.

Stocks without volatility don't have market-leading growth rates and if you know anything about compounded gains and becoming wealthy, you know how important every percent of annual capital growth is. So, celebrate the volatility and relax!

Yes, keep your eye on the ball (but the ball is not the share price - it's the company).

 

[kengchang]

I’m inclined to call BS on Einhorn but I don’t have the insight into the accounting details. TSLA is my largest position by a wide margin so I’m hoping someone can put my mind at ease on the accounts receivable question. Is this a concern? I imagine not but why not?

AR includes the regulatory credit that hasn't been received, was discussed during the conference call

 

[jeewee3000]

I’m inclined to call BS on Einhorn but I don’t have the insight into the accounting details. TSLA is my largest position by a wide margin so I’m hoping someone can put my mind at ease on the accounts receivable question. Is this a concern? I imagine not but why not?

Are you serious?

 

[Tim S]

Am I reading correctly that the gross margin calc includes the tax credit ?

View attachment 537495

I don't think "regulatory credits" are tax credits.

 

[Curt Renz]

From my Thinkorswim newsfeed - 20 minutes ago:

Analyst Actions: Goldman Sachs raises Tesla's price target to $925 from$864, Maintains Buy Rating

Analyst Actions: Deutsche Bank raises Tesla's price target to $850 from $510, Reiterates Hold Rating

 

[StealthP3D]

I did warn you guys, but all I got was abuse. I hope you all learn a lesson here. I hate to say I told you so.

If I had listened to you months ago, I would still be waiting for $100 and would have left enough money on the table to feed and clothe an entire city!

Why you think anyone would give you any credibility is beyond my comprehension.