Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

What do you think Musk is worried about really?

Is it that he will have to furloughed / cut more employees for a few more weeks?

Is it simply he thinks a few weeks is going to hurt Tesla's financials so much (directly)?

Is it worry over suppliers - if so how many suppliers are in the Bay Area?

Like what is eating at him so much over a few farking more weeks delay?

 

[Tim S]

The count is now that Elon did tweet in the last years 5 times that the stock price is too high or overvalued.

Excluding other 4 times Baird counted makes 9 times in total so he repeated what he said before over time quite often. Stock went up for good reasons and will continue to do so including ups and downs of course

Third Row Tesla Podcast on Twitter

I remember a few of them but they don't matter. They did not before and they do not today.

A CEO can have an opinion.

I don't believe that is really his opinion today. That is the problem.

 

[SOULPEDL]

because other people thought he's trying to pump the stock price and putting people's life at risk.

Yes, this could be the missing context.
Thanks, hadn't thought of that.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just one last thing to point out. While this tweet event is similar to the past ones.....the company itself is in a vastly different place and it's really hard for me to fathom people selling out of their position because of a tweet at this point. If you're selling based strictly on your morals about what Elon is tweeting, ok you should sell and that's fine. But based on the actual fundamentals on the stock, it's incredibly stupid to sell right now. Sure in the past when a lot of Tesla's valuation was based on future growth, there could very real fear of a considerable drop in the share price when this type of event happens. That isn't the case today. The numbers and fundamentals are there and it's simple math to see what Q3 and Q4 are going to be if they get back to full production. I don't think people are properly realizing the margin growth of full scale Model Y and MIC China in combination with the gross margin progress they've already made. We're talking 25% margins without credits and 30% with credits(which are going to start to become a more reliable part of the margin due to Europe credits). When you apply that margin to full production out of Fremont and Giga 3, we are going to get crazy good earnings starting in Q3. I'll gladly wade through the murky waters for 3 months to get to that point.

In my case, it's not worth selling anything as long as the share price stays above the 550 area due to tax reasons. Anyone with a sizable position is gonna be in the same boat as me. So then the question becomes, do I really think it's going below 550 and the answer is no. I'm not going to guarantee that it won't go below 550 for a couple days or intraday but at 550........based on the numbers today....not 2 years of future growth, the stock would be the craziest deal ever.

 

[azaz]

To be fair, if you read the report that Elon links from USTODAY did not accuse doctor but hospital administration:
Fact check: Medicare pays hospitals more money for COVID-19 patients

Doctors from a corporate run hospital did not get paid for whatever treatment you get. It is hospital has incentive to get paid.
That's very two different things.

It's all paper work with insurance really, but the wording does make difference on claim.

every single pure death count suggests that we have an undercount not an over count of C19 deaths. This information is freely available (Alberto Cairo on Twitter). Also Elon keeps getting baited in to this new thing where he thinks right wingers showing him videos of C19 deaths with C19 present in body but maybe not cause of death is evidence of some sinister conspiracy when the facts are this is exactly how flu deaths are recorded as well. Is there maybe a small amount of medical fraud going on, possible. But the pure death counts show we are clearly undercounting not over counting. There is no massive conspiracy here.

Also the intubation thing was a couple weeks back and he did basically accuse doctors/hospitals of intubating because they get more money from it.

If you and Musk genuinely believe there is some conspiracy around these facts, seek help.

 

[SO16]

Okay I don't know why there are so many of this "you should be grateful that Tesla stock has such good returns" posts.

Many long term investors were stuck in a trading cycle between 180-380 for 5 freaken YEARS. People here waited as patiently as they could, thinking that their bull thesis has to be right. Tsla finally had a huge break out of the trading pattern and you can't fault people for being furious that it's being sabotaged by Elon's erratic behavior. There are so many uncertainty right now about Covid, future demand, factory open, etc etc that there has been a huge pit in people's stomach ever since we closed the U.S. Even with a V shape recovery for Tesla's stock, there are good reasons to be optimistically cautious given the circumstances. Tesla just had a knock out earnings, and this stock is all about momentum. People want every upward momentum possible since MM has been manipulating this stock so hard plus macro uncertainty. So yeah...Elon's tweet doesn't help at all at a time like this. People literally are furious because they have been fighting for this company for the past 5 stinking years hoping for today and it's heart breaking to have the CEO think the stock is overvalued.

Elon has said that the stock is overvalued more than 5 times over the years. And each time, the stock has come back.

Momentum? Hah. No one here can predict with a high success rate what the stock is going to do over the next 6 months.

So it took 5 years before anything happened. So what? You could have invested in FB from IPO and have a more steady gain and still not be where we are today with TSLA.

 

[Pezpunk]

Btw looking at SPY drop, seems about 5% of this drop is macro related. I doubt many here would be as upset if TSLA was "only" down 4 or 5%

i don't care about the drop in stock price. i care about the mental state of the leadership, which is currently mired in fringe conspiracies and erratic twitter tantrums that could plausibly result in punitive action from the SEC.

from my perspective, the emotional reaction would be to cover your eyes and ears and shout "ALL HAIL MUSK" until any dissenting opinions are shouted down. a more reasoned approach would be to take it as an upward adjustment of overall risk.

 

[CanadaEV]

What do you think Musk is worried about really?

Is it that he will have to furloughed / cut more employees for a few more weeks?

Is it simply he thinks a few weeks is going to hurt Tesla's financials so much (directly)?

Is it worry over suppliers - if so how many suppliers are in the Bay Area?

Like what is eating at him so much over a few farking more weeks delay?

I have no idea what goes on in his mind, but he does tweet a clue.
My guess would be, he is saying to Claire, 'Everything in my life is important, but right now none of it matters compared to you and that miracle of a baby that is going to be born in a few days.'

 

[dl003]

Yes Tesla stock price is too high imo if the factory will be closed for another month. It's Elon Musk adding a little more fire power to his fascist rant about opening the Fremont factory as soon as possible. People vote with their wallet. It's his way to get the Alameda County authorities to pay attention.

How? By selling his houses in LA? Or by hurting investors, many of which are his employees? How is this creating pressures on the county? "If you don't let us open, I'll take my employees' net worth down the toilet and let's see you deal with them" - that kind of influence? Sorry I fail how his rants today create any pressure on the authority.

 

[wipster]

Well, surely didn't expect the events of this week, having gone from extremely happy and excited about the SP and the company to feeling like my heart had yanked from body in less than 2 days. And with a baby coming Monday, I have absolutely no idea now what to expect from the tweets of Musk in the coming weeks. Hopefully Alameda will pull their heads out of their collective arses and allow Fremont to carefully restart, with lessons learned from GF3, and Battery Day is the success we're all expecting.

But regardless of the Musk tweets, planned or not, I still believe in the future success of Tesla Motors and Energy. While this pandemic has been painful for humanity, it has allowed us all to see what happens when ICE vehicles are taken off the road, for even a short time, and that in itself may be the biggest marketing opportunity ever available to BEV's. And if Tesla can reduce pricing for American made vehicles the way they have in China, that makes Teslas even more attractive to the masses.

While the next month may be painful, the remainder of the year and afterward still represent the best opportunity available to achieve our common goals.

But put your cowboy hats on boys and girls, the rodeo is just beginning...

 

[azaz]

What do you think Musk is worried about really?

Is it that he will have to furloughed / cut more employees for a few more weeks?

Is it simply he thinks a few weeks is going to hurt Tesla's financials so much (directly)?

Is it worry over suppliers - if so how many suppliers are in the Bay Area?

Like what is eating at him so much over a few farking more weeks delay?

he couldn't accept he was wrong about the severity of c19 and turned to information sources that would validate his priors no matter how fringe (see John McAfee) they are.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Btw looking at SPY drop, seems about 5% of this drop is macro related. I doubt many here would be as upset if TSLA was "only" down 4 or 5%

Is it so hard to understand that many are upset because of strange and unnecessary behavior. Regardless of the short term OR eventual longterm result.

I have my shares. Haven't sold any. I'm still 100% sure this stock will go to the moon. I was 100% sure it would be with Elon at the helm. Now I'm only 90% sure that last part will happen.

I even agree with Elon that it's time to open stuff up. Not for the same reasons though.

 

[Krugerrand]

But I don't want to be a wall Mart greeter

I’m definitely not going to need an island greeter, but I am going to need a water boy to serve the participants in my new anger management classes.

You should apply, but I can’t guarantee you’ll get the position. There’s a skill testing question involved that must be answered correctly without the use of a calculator/calculator APP. I’m not sure you’re up to the task.

 

[elasalle]

Why do stupid poor people think they can criticize a genius billionaire?

Because Genius can be Stupid Sometimes

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Some perspective. Nasdaq down 3% today, and it's common for TSLA to follow the macros at 2-3X, which means "the tweet" had arguably a 1-4% marginal effect on today's 10% decline.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon's tweet has no insider or financial info related to Tesla. It's simply an opinion that any person can have. The SEC case against the tweet would be far fetched. Again, the opinion that SP is high has no hint of Tesla insider info whatsoever.

The terms of the SEC agreement make it clear that Elon can't tweet anything *material* about Tesla without approval. Material means something Elon knows that an outsider wouldn't know.

Well said.

Paging @Fact Checking Your opinion, Sir?

TIA.

 

[Sudre]

You know........ when many of us where kids... or young adult I should say.... We would get drunk and call someone. It was called "Drunk Dialing". Well, now days we have Drunk TWEETS! and boy did Elon pull a good one today.

On the bright side most of the time after a Drunk-whatever things go back to normal once the person on the other end got over it (apologies always help) and if they didn't get over it, they were not a friend anyway and who needs them.

I am still going to understand the people here who feel betrayed.

Out of curiosity does anyone remember if Elon got sued last time he said the price was too high?
I don't think he did.

 

[Pezpunk]

How? By selling his houses in LA? Or by hurting investors, many of which are his employees? How is this creating pressures on the county? "If you don't let us open, I'll take my employees' net worth down the toilet and let's see you deal with them" - that kind of influence? Sorry I fail how his rants today create any pressure on the authority.

maybe he mistakenly believes his employees (who are paid partially in stock) and investors will blame the drop in Tesla valuation on Alameda County officials, rather than his own erratic behavior.

 

[johnm6875]

Now might be a perfect opportunity to hire Mary Barra. Less expensive than Elon and she has run GM steady as a rock.s/

 

[avoigt]

I don't believe that is really his opinion today. That is the problem.

Well he wrote its his opinion.