Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

The upgrade is great! But the true killer today will be the lack of short sellers to scare the market. Futures are down about 1% but Tesla is up 1%. Early observation though. Subject to change haha

Lol, not a LACK of shortzes, but those dogz WILL be on a leash. The "Uptick Rule" means they can not sell TSLA for below the 'National Best Price' as it appears in the order book.

So they'll try to 'cap' the SP with shorting, unless there's really strong volume. Macros are red at the moment though, so I'm not expecting high volume, unless there's breaking news.

Cheers!

 

[JBRR]

As someone else would say.
It's the batteries !

EDIT: Battery day is coming. If it's even half of what we think it is, its a new trajectory.

Main driver seems to be margin surprise. Revised expected gross margin to peak in 2026/2027 from 24.5% to 26%.

 

[mulder1231]

Main driver seems to be margin surprise. Revised expected gross margin to peak in 2026/2027 from 24.5% to 26%.

From battery? I expect main driver for gross margin improvements (to take it much higher than 26%) would be software features. By 2025/2026 FSD should be at level 5, opening up to all kinds of in-car software-based infotainment revenue possibilities.

 

[JBRR]

From battery? I expect main driver for gross margin improvements (to take it much higher than 26%) would be software features. By 2025/2026 FSD should be at level 5, opening up to all kinds of in-car software-based infotainment revenue possibilities.

"Now has gross margins ex. reg credits peaking at 26% in 2026/27 versus ~24.5% prior"

Only see headlines, not subscribed to morgan stanley research.

 

[jerry33]

After production, the batteries can be stored at half charge for many years. They don't self-drain, they only lose charge when installed in a car that is using up the charge slowly. But you don't want to store them fully charged in a hot climate. OT.

Are you sure about that? I've always understood that there is time degridation whether they are used or not. It's slower at 50%, but my understanding is that it's not zero (unless perhaps they are stored at cold temperatures as well--don't know about that).

 

[jerry33]

HINT: 3 x 10 hrs shifts don't fit into a 24 hr day. Neither do 3 x 8 since people take breaks and lunch, and the machines can NOT run 24 hrs day without maintenance...

Not even on Mars, you only get an extra 37 minutes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not even on Mars, you only get an extra 37 minutes.

Lol, ELON TIME!

Cheers!

 

[Green Pete]

Sigh premarket started to dumb again

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sigh premarket started to dumb again

Yup it's the 7:00 am walk-down. New class of traders let out into the paddock. Dey tryin' hard, let's see what volume does.

Edit: walking it down $1/min, now below the Middle-BB from Friday's close (which was $685.04). Their strategy here is to create a gap down before the Open, so the natural support offered by reaching the Middle-BB is by-passed.

Nothing has changed wrt Tesla, of course...

Cheers!

 

[Lycanthrope]

Sigh premarket started to dumb again

Because it opened up for retail and likely some shorties/bears wait until this moment to dump some shares in order to give a negative impression and induce some selling in the weaker longs.

 

[Unpilot]

Because it opened up for retail and likely some shorties/bears wait until this moment to dump some shares in order to give a negative impression and induce some selling in the weaker longs.

Aint gunna work with me...how about you all?

 

[WarpedOne]

700 is still some 300 to high for me to buy again... try harder.

 

[LJS22]

700 is still some 300 to high for me to buy again... try harder.

My feeling is we have some buying opportunities coming up soon. But look at that list of catalyst for the stock going forward. We are once again in a position where we understand Tesla is going to shock people with its rapid expansion. The stock price is irrelevant unless you’re playing options. It was the beginning of June when we went below 180 just a year ago!

Keep the SEC away and Musk onboard and any price between 350-900 is irrelevant. I hope investors don’t get discouraged too early this year, or they will have to sit back and watch a repeat of last year

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...virus-crisis-hits-solar-wind-energy-industry/

Main article depicts grim picture for COVID-19 legislative aid for renewables, but there is some tasty irony:

'Some energy analysts note that big oil companies don’t have to wait for government stimulus. The price of oil is so low that they would be better off investing in wind and solar, they say. 
“For all these oil companies, the returns on these renewable projects are better than what they can do in the oil and gas industry,” said Sarah Ladislaw, director of the energy program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Now is a good time to do that and tell their investors.”'

 

[Artful Dodger]

Because it opened up for retail and likely some shorties/bears wait until this moment to dump some shares in order to give a negative impression and induce some selling in the weaker longs.

You were saying..

7:00 am 'Walk-Down': $20 in 20 min... but there's no manipulation fo TSLA, right?

Cheers!

 

[TrendTrader007]

Trendtrader007, I’ve always appreciated your posts and thank you for keeping positive when Tesla has been in the dumps on several occasions in the past.

Just because I want to learn from your experience, do you take into account the tax implications when you decide to realize your gains? Or is it that once you sell like you mentioned you did earlier in the year, you’ve already realized the BIG tax bill so it frees you up to make decisions without much concern for additional taxes incurred? For me in CA, over 50% goes in total taxes for short term large gains so I can lose and have lost big in the past when I make a mistake.

In my personal experience every time that I have tried to realize long-term capital gains I have been burned. this year I realized significant profit right in the beginning of the year in January so I I already owe approximately 47% of that in taxes
I figured that I stand more to lose by holding a position rather than not worrying about the tax implications and just trading it.
Last week on Thursday I was watching the market and I have this sinking feeling that Tesla had topped so I immediately sold all my positions and then to 100% cash without worrying about the tax implications of it and I am really glad that I did
Bottom line I do not worry about the taxes if I get my trade-in right
As far as Tesla is concerned I am much bigger of a bull than any of these guys who are pointing fingers at me. I trade in size. I remain a Super Bull on tesla

 

[mickificki]

 

[brantse]

Perhaps 7:00 AM move is due to retail. I had some orders in to buy in the premarket, confused as to why they weren't going off. Sure enough, they hit at 7:00 AM. I had assumed that my brokerage (TD Ameritrade) started trading at 6, but now see that it's actually 7.

 

[elasalle]

Nothing new here, but ..

Tesla isn't a car company, and it isn't a tech company — it's a new GE for the 21st century, and it's just getting started. Here's how it could dominate the global business world.

Tesla isn't a car company, and it isn't a tech company — it's a new GE for the 21st century

This is Tesla's destiny — to supplant the 20th century's most important technology conglomerate and establish itself as the most important technology conglomerate of the 21st

 

[LN1_Casey]

My feeling is we have some buying opportunities coming up soon. But look at that list of catalyst for the stock going forward. We are once again in a position where we understand Tesla is going to shock people with its rapid expansion. The stock price is irrelevant unless you’re playing options. It was the beginning of June when we went below 180 just a year ago!

Keep the SEC away and Musk onboard and any price between 350-900 is irrelevant. I hope investors don’t get discouraged too early this year, or they will have to sit back and watch a repeat of last year

Personally I hope it floats above 850 around October, since that's when I'll be liquidating long term gains for my Tesla Model S purchase. What it does before and after that is just buying opportunities.

But if it doesn't, them's the breaks.