Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

GF3 construction is stunning. Am I correct that the adjacent waterway is for drainage only and no material is delivered by it? Is our video host who reports regularly an official or quasi-official government functionary?
When viewing new or existing Tesla facilities, I like to remember that 1/86,000 of everything there is mine.

it’s a moat! Elon lies again, he does believe in moats.

 

[JusRelax]

Points made by The Limiting Factor guy interviewed by Gali:

DBE will eliminate additional degradation resulting from charging to 100% and going down to near zero.

DBE should increase charging speed. He did not quantify.

He didn't specifically say this, but he implied that since degradation will be less significant with dbe, the battery will be able to charge at the highest speeds longer than current tech. This, of course, leads to faster overall charging. I'm not sure if the maximum charge rate will also increase with dbe as well, but I'm almost 100% certain that he means maximum charge rate will be able to be sustained longer.

 

[Krugerrand]

View attachment 539411

I find it helpful to read @Krugerrand as having an arid sense of humor. Drier than dry.

(NOTE: I like dry humor, seriously)

My humor has taken its toll.

 

[Quesder]

Hey look, TSLA q-sader is back and trying to make national holidays look like production issues

Hey, that joke is not funny anymore. I hope you can stop. I am a Tesla long with hundreds of shares.
If you can read the article or use Google translate you will see that it says the production will be back on 5/9 because parts from Mexico has supply issue.

 

[Kenypowa]

Is that two or three days without production?

It might be a good time to implement any speed/efficiency improvements to the line they have been holding off on.

The article stated production was halted on May 1st and didn't resume on the 6th as planned due to parts shortage. It is now expected to resume production on the 9th.

Also, the overseas parts shortage seems to be from suppliers in Mexico.

 

[RobStark]

I really depends on the power of lobbying groups.

We are seeing the hottest month ever on human history, I am not seeing NRDC or Sierra or MoveOn serious about working with congress that EV cannot be excluded.

Tesla is lone wolf and it does not support unionization. UAW is a bigger force for Democrat part and GM / F executives are pretty much inline with Republicans. Tesla holds very little water.

UAW political contribution: 98% Democrat, 2% Republican
United Auto Workers Summary | OpenSecrets

GM donation history
OpenSecrets

TESLA donation history
OpenSecrets

The traditional automakers are much more involved in the politics.

UAW doesn't have any auto workers in California or Nevada. In California the UAW represents University teachers assistants.

GM has a few engineering offices in California.

If this site allowed wagers I would wager an auto bailout that does not include Tesla has zero chance of passing the House and Nancy Pelosi.

If for no other reason for Pelosi to stick it to Trump.

 

[gerebgraus]

Lol, I just listened to Gali congratulating himself: (43:35)

"I think it's you know like Elon Musk said on the conference call the Youtubers and Bloggers are figuring this out and this is the cutting edge of research"​

Yeah, that's what Gali said on his channel after the call, alright. But what ELON actually said during the Jan 2020 Earnings call was this:

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

"Well, I guess, we don't have to -- I do think that a lot of retail investors actually have deeper and more accurate insights than many of the big institutional investors and certainly better insight than many of the analysts. It seems like if people really looked at some of the smart retail investor analysts and what some of the smart smaller retail investors predicted about the future of Tesla, you would probably get the highest accuracy and remarkable insight from some of those predictions."​

Notice where Elon says Youtubers? Yeah, he doesn't. But that's what Gali heard, and the story he keeps telling himself (and his listeners). Funny or sad? You decide. I've decided to chuckle.

Just to be fair, my prediction for Tesla Battery Day is what I call the "G-Cube". It's archived and accesible in the thread "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit" #37 from July 29, 2019.

G-Cube is my answer to this question from @ReflexFunds here: ↑

"I haven't seen much discussion on when people are expecting Pickup to hit production, and exactly what year Elon's 2TWh battery manufacturing target will correspond to. Any thoughts?"​

So you all can take ur turns now: What will battery day bring? Predict away!

Cheers!

You switched topics. The reference was about the Potter (Jeffrey Sandler) interview on excellent Tesla daily podcast. (Rob Mauer) (Incidentally Gali improved a lot during the years.)

 

[ABCTG]

So you all can take ur turns now: What will battery day bring?

I'm looking for battery day to bring news of Tesla manufacturing their own battery.

#1 priority is Tesla being in control of their own battery destiny,

Once they can get the process going, they can scale up to their hearts delight, and no longer be dependant on any outside supplier.

also would be good have an answer to, how long does it take to prove that their new battery is roadworthy?

 

[RobStark]

This whole "essential" vs "non-essential" business is a farce. One of the weirdest, non-logical "laws" we've been forced to follow. Just go into a Costco, Walmart, or Target to buy clothes and then think about all the other clothes stores forced to close, regardless of precautions.

On the other hand, you can go to a McDonalds drive-thru, buy a quarter-pounder with bacon and a McFlurry, but most ice cream shops have been forced to close.

Edit: looks like ice cream shops are ok to open now, but you get my drift. Ice cream is NOT essential by any means.

Makes much more sense what some states are doing is allowing big box retailers to sell "essential items" and not sell "non essential items"like clothes.

Yeah, distinguishing between drive through and dine-in service or walk in service makes no sense.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Yeah, that doesn’t qualify. It has to be the other kind of a demand problem.

I have plenty of TSLA and hadn’t been looking to add for years. But when Q1 of last year hit and people freaked out and SP dropped, I decided that for every post that mentioned Tesla had a demand problem I would buy a share. I did and got a really good deal on them in the low $200’s.

I’m doing that again this time around since I’m pretty sure Q2 handwringing will happen and claims of demand problems will resurface en force. I also think I might get a discounted price.

I doubled my position when it hit 170. I don't think we will ever see those lows again though.

 

[Krugerrand]

I doubled my position when it hit 170. I don't think we will ever see those lows again though.

I’ve heard that declaration before. I do think we’ve established a new trading range, but I know nothing and won’t venture a guess.

 

[MC3OZ]

also would be good have an answer to, how long does it take to prove that their new battery is roadworthy?

That is a good question...

The Jeff Dahn team would have done a lot of lab testing on longevity.

They can run lab tests on a completed pack, testing how it goes with repeated cycling..

If we are talking crash safety, then a roadworthy might require a cash test.

I think any proposed pack may run around in test mules for at least 6 months before volume production use.
Just looking at a car we can't tell what pack or motors it has..

Most probably they are intending to use Maxwell pack in the Plaid Model S/X. But Plaid drive itself might be slightly delayed.

We may get some answers on Battery Day, as far as possible they will not announce anything that will Osborne existing models...

 

[StealthP3D]

Makes much more sense what some states are doing is allowing big box retailers to sell "essential items" and not sell "non essential items"like clothes.

I always thought streaking would be legalized by 2020. I guess if clothes are "non-essential items", I was right.

 

[StealthP3D]

I doubled my position when it hit 170. I don't think we will ever see those lows again though.

It hasn't been that low for over 4 years!

 

[printf42]

National Business Daily on Twitter

Original source here:
https://auto-time.36kr.com/p/697007867124097

Unofficial source indicates GF3 didn’t resume full production On 6th the first day after May-1 holiday, the halt may continue till 9th.

No concrete reason for the short halt, which looks like a normal ramp up after production halted for the holiday.

Nothing burger...

 

[mickle]

Looks like the Bay Area and Alameda are targetting May 18 for stage 2 opening:

Reopening California: Is the Bay Area ready for Phase 2? Here's what every single county says

Alameda County

Start "Phase 2" on Friday? No.

Neetu Balram, a spokesperson for the county, told ABC7 News in an email that mid-May would likely be the earliest the county enters "Phase 2."

"Ongoing favorable results will be the deciding factors to further relaxation, and we are cautiously optimistic that we're making progress toward safely opening up to the State's allowed activities in mid-May," Balram said.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I have plenty of TSLA and hadn’t been looking to add for years. But when Q1 of last year hit and people freaked out and SP dropped, I decided that for every post that mentioned Tesla had a demand problem I would buy a share. I did and got a really good deal on them in the low $200’s.

If that's the case, how do you only have 63 shares.

 

[SteveG3]

Joe Rogan on Twitter

phrasing pretty strongly implies to me that this has been pre-recorded (editing possible)

 

[AZRI11]

View attachment 539441

Joe Rogan on Twitter

phrasing pretty strongly implies to me that this has been pre-recorded (editing possible)

Joe is offering antibody tests to his guests. I wonder if Elon would take it?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Looks like the Bay Area and Alameda are targetting May 18 for stage 2 opening:

Reopening California: Is the Bay Area ready for Phase 2? Here's what every single county says

Alameda County

Start "Phase 2" on Friday? No.

Neetu Balram, a spokesperson for the county, told ABC7 News in an email that mid-May would likely be the earliest the county enters "Phase 2."

"Ongoing favorable results will be the deciding factors to further relaxation, and we are cautiously optimistic that we're making progress toward safely opening up to the State's allowed activities in mid-May," Balram said.

This would appear to list the criteria:
https://813dcad3-2b07-4f3f-a25e-23c...d/ee8930_dca644005baf48d981764eb3287dbd30.pdf

The easiest for us to track would appear to be:

Indicator 1: The Total Number of Cases in the Community is Flat or Decreasing, and the Number of Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 is Flat or Decreasing
• The number of new cases identified per day is flat or decreasing in the coming weeks and months.
o We know that as we increase testing, our numbers may temporarily go up. Increased testing will provide a more accurate picture of how many cases exist in our community. We will be closely monitoring and analyzing this information week by week.
• The number of hospitalized patients with COVID-19, across all hospitals, is flat or decreasing for 14 consecutive days.

Data are here:

https://ac-hcsa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/1e0ac4385cbe4cc1bffe2cf7f8e7f0d9

ArcGIS Dashboards