Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[oldTAVguy]

Thanks! Does anyone happen to have MaxPain for this week?

Max Pain 810.

 

[Tim S]

There is no Riverside County in the Bay Area.

Portal:San Francisco Bay Area - Wikipedia

The Riverside County is in Southern California.

You are correct. She is in Contra Costa County. My mistake. I edited my post.

 

[Zaxxon]

There's demand management and then there's a demand problem. Tesla is clearly doing the former, but I don't think there's the latter.

Fine, fine, fine. Since @Krugerrand isn't responding, I've gone and added a share.

 

[MartinAustin]

The question remains, if Tesla reports <60 - 70k deliveries this Q, will the market forgive them and the SP hold or will there be a buying opportunity?

Anybody that sells TSLA because the Q2 deliveries were smaller than they wanted... is an idiot. It's obviously a temporary problem and the company will be doing amazingly in future quarters. Stock prices are supposed to be indicative of future performance. If TSLA falls at the beginning of July because of something that happened in April/May/June, that is not focusing on future performance.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Utter rubbish epidemiology


Elon's track record:
1) phenomenal cars (we own 2), likely equally phenomenal semi and Roadster 2
2) great home and residential solar systems (again we own two of those also) - #1 and #2 are major sign posts on the road to sustainable energy and transportation infrastructure
3) phenomenal SpaceX rocket company about to make history once again
4) solid plan for reopening of Tesla factories with covid-19 safety
5) lousy epidemiologist/ infectious disease specialist

Nobody's perfect, and four out of five ain't bad, but I'm disappointed that Elon has resorted to what are essentially conspiracy-theory level dismissals of the standard epidemiologic and biological science paradoxically the same kind of crap that he's had to confront for years in his attempts to build a sustainable transportation and energy infrastructure (that climate change is fake news, fake science, part of the deep state conspiracy, etc etc).

Billionaire Tech Geniuses don't like being told what they can't do so I understand his irritation, but I do not understand his departure from the science. Anybody that says that the IFR for covid-19 is the same as the flu simply doesn't know what they're talking about. That's not even debatable unless you're willing to entertain cooked statistics of the kind that the discredited Santa Clara antibody study generated. Outside of those fringe conspiracy-theory-like outliers, IFR is many times more serious than the flu. I love Elon, we love his cars, and Tesla products across the board, and we love what he's trying to do, but this one is disappointing.

PS for those convinced by the nonsense epidemiology quoted by Horowitz, please Google medcram covid-19 and look at the talks by a senior physician on the biology of covid-19 infection and how it's substantially differs from the biology of influenza infection. This includes lung and other tissue histopathology that shows why this disease is significantly more fatal. It takes a destructive commitment to polarisation and a certain level of real craziness to believe that this fundamental biological science is cooked up, or part of some kind of conspiracy to pull the wool over everybody's eyes.

This.
I don't understand why he's obsessed with overcounting by hospitals and not undercounting by lack of tampons.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Repeat of last year when demand question took over the narrative and drove the stock all the way down to $178?

Q2 bad, Q3 and Q4 blow out of the park, get your dry powder ready...

 

[Tslynk67]

Max Pain 810.

Indeed - that hedge fund (forgot their name) is just allowing the SP to drop, they'll buy up shares if necessary to get the SP higher by close Friday - too many puts at $800 to allow it to close below that. If it pops too high them they sell a few of those millions of shares they grabbed during the C19 dip to drop it back down.

But looks like shorty are magnifying the drop here, poor misguided souls...

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

This drop isn’t TSLA specific. NASDAQ is down 2% so TSLA being down only 3% really isn’t that bad.

 

[StealthP3D]

Repeat of last year when demand question took over the narrative and drove the stock all the way down to $178?

Q2 bad, Q3 and Q4 blow out of the park, get your dry powder ready...

How short memory is...

The price bottomed at an intraday low of $178 almost a month before the "bad Q2" was finished and almost two months before Q2 financials were released. I doubled my TSLA position the next day at $184.

We are not going to see a repeat of that - the dynamics are not even comparable.

 

[Christine69420]

I have no idea what is going on!

But it's a nice day to buy 2 more shares so I did.

Being a buy and hold investor is easy.

 

[strago13]

Grabbed more shares @ 790...

 

[dhanson865]

I understand where you're coming from, but I very much disagree.

It's not just "removing a few cells." They're not line up like toy solders easy to move around, they're made into modules, which are then made into packs. Making a smaller pack would require a whole assembly configuration, or they'd have to rework an existing line. If they did that, then they'd have 3 different pack lines for the 3 alone, and even the model S (currently) only has 1 for savings purpose.

At end of 2019 there were about 5 times as many 3/Y packs going out the door vs S/X packs. So 3 to 1 ratio isn't that absurd.

If S/X production capacity stays stagnant and 3/Y capacity is expanded there will be an ever widening ratio between the two. Enough so that any past decision about the S/X pack doesn't really apply to the future of 3/Y.

 

[ninpb]

Looking at the model Y forum order/delivery spreadsheet, it looks healthy AF. With it being a small/mid suv, extrapolation to general population is probably closer to true. I suspect that S3X price decrease is more for cannibalization with a little bit of nudging of worried buyers who were always going to buy a 3 but holding off on personal financial uncertainties.

 

[Beltsbear]

Coronavirus is about twice as fatal as a seasonally bad flu i.e. one that appears every 5 years or so, although of course nowhere near as fatal as the Spanish flu from 1918, so in that aspect Elon is correct. And anyway, I think he is trying to make the point that life should go on as it isn't a big sci-fi like pandemic as people imagine. He is completely correct here. Never before has the whole world shut-down to prevent 82 year olds from dying! (average age of death from coronavirus in the US).

The damage from the shut-down could be way worse that the damage caused by the virus.

To get back to Tesla re. the price cuts today, this could be very good news or pretty bad news. If there is an announcement about battery day today then I would take this as good news that the new battery tech is helping lower prices. If no announcement, then probably there is (temporary) demand issue, which will last as long as there are lots of people unsure about their jobs and finances. Completely to be expected, although the question is how much of a temporary demand issue there will be, and how long will it last...

NYC and Italy prove that wrong. You can be against lockdowns without lying about the severity of Covid. Covid is at least five times as deadly as the worst of the last 50 years flu.

 

[JBRR]

Benchmark's #EVFest 2020 @benchmarkmin

good stream while waiting for spacex

 

[Driver Dave]

NYC and Italy prove that wrong. You can be against lockdowns without lying about the severity of Covid. Covid is at least five times as deadly as the worst of the last 50 years flu.

Agree.

I find people pick data that is not based on the actual strength of this virus, but on a picture of things with people masked up, socially distancing, hanging home... aka the charts you see are not the actual reality of the virus doing its thing unchecked.

All the links Elon references as "read this" always have this problem.


But I do think Tesla has the right approach to opening:

1. They have to open.

2. They will listen to the science and do it as right as they can.

3. When you do do things right, you can mitigate the impact the virus has.


So regardless of Elon, they are doing "smart re-opening" which is the way to make it work.


Just re-open! Is stupid.

Re-open smart! Is smart.


TSLA Long.

it's obvious.

 

[Todd Burch]

Repeat of last year when demand question took over the narrative and drove the stock all the way down to $178?

Q2 bad, Q3 and Q4 blow out of the park, get your dry powder ready...

Um, no.

 

[dl003]

for the sake of my vital organs, please don't go down to 178. I'm out of stuff to sell.

 

[goinfraftw]

Cool...

6-hour weather forecasts were used to validate long-term (hundreds of years) climate change estimates. The article suggests unifying all weather modeling and forecasting systems.

Short-term tests validate long-term estimates of climate change

 

[Christine69420]

A new video from GigaBerlin:

27 May 2020 Start foundation work. A really big bustle on the construction site. Now that the building permit for foundation work has been issued, things are moving ahead at full speed.