Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Good point, but even then, I'm not sure the UK is the best choice (Although obviously I'd be in favour). Everywhere in europe means sending stuff through the channel tunnel, or by ship, which is a bottleneck nobody needs. Plus wage costs in the UK are not exactly super cheap, and our planning system is pretty dreadful for building new factories. Plus solar wise.... there are better places for creating solar products...
BUT
We have a huge amunt of wind energy, and are building tons more, so its arguable the case we are a very good place for selling/testing energy storage. But then the ingredients (lithium etc) are not exactly local to us.
Also brexit puts a big phat 'who knows what will happen' question mark over our economy. I can imagine a second GF in Germany before there is one here. I CAN imagine a design/research facility in the UK. We are the home of deep mind, and have some pretty geeky univerities etc...

Agree with your comments that a factory could be suitable for the UK - particularly if production was weighted more towards batteries. The UK is one of the best places for battery storage - as you say there's large amount of intermittent wind energy. There's also a surprising amount of solar given the weather and latitude. Grid scale battery storage could do very well here.

The energy market is also quite sophisticated with many frequency control and other energy stability markets which can be locked in in advance (which makes financing easier) along with floating spot rate energy where Autobidder could run wild extracting profits. Scaling battery storage will provide even more flexibility for Atobidder to trade.

In addition to many of the great universities and relevant companies you mentioned, pretty much the entire Formula1 engineering industry is headquartered in the UK - In my opinion many of these great engineers will be looking for a new home over the next 5 years as legacy OEMs limit their investment in ICE powertrains.

 

[Thumper]

F1 is a giant anachronism. It is paid for by petroleum and legacy car companies largely. I don't see it surviving much longer. Covid may have done it in already. Legacy car companies will soon be unable to justify the spending. Some of the excellent engineers that are shed will migrate over to Formula E but there should be many that are available to Tesla and Space X. They will be accustomed to the culture of rapid innovation and first principle thinking that is the hallmark of Musk industries.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Is everyone ready for another Model X filled SpaceX launch prep for today? Supposedly the weather is still a bit iffy, with a 50% chance of another Scrub. The next launch would be tomorrow, but storms are also predicted for then.

 

[jbcarioca]

Well, right now no one manufactures cars in Australia.

Cars do get exported from UK to Australia

Musk don't do "smaller" factories.

Though this is a one source rumour.

Highly unlikely to come about.

I agree with you but...just as Tilburg came to exist to minimize the negative impact of EU duties so also other CKD and/or more specialized factories will certainly be happening. The UK, for example, could well be primarily about storage, and possibly mostly utility level storage. If for vehicles also, perhaps, but certainly no GF. It seems transparently obvious that an application to be a utility-level energy provider is connected to the factory speculation. The time has come to be somewhat more refined in our thinking about what new factories will do. After all Fremont, GF-1 and GF-2 are not remotely similar, nor is GF-3 seeming to be an analogue for any of the others. As for GF-4 we know surprises will come. We seem to be largely ignoring the probable output of new development facilities in China and Germany. Then we have not much direct insight into the pending new US factory, probably Texas. We all assume that that one will produce Cybertruck, and lately we assume Model Y. The Cybertruck one is certainly true but what else? How about storage? A quick change in Texas regulation and suddenly Texas will become the largest NA storage market. Beyond that how will Tesla meet the CA demand for solar roof plus storage as the CA new housing market recovers? Another new factory will be in the offing. Will one of the new ones be on the US/Mexico border, or the US/Canada one? Just think, please, what continuing growth of ~50% per year or even 25% will mean. There must be at least five or six new factories of one size or product combination or other.

We are being far too limited in our thinking.

 

[adesai]

Survey of central bankers and finance ministers. One quote:

"Clean energy infrastructure is also helpfully very labour intensive in the early stages –one model suggests that every $1m in spending generates 7.49 full-time jobs in renewables infrastructure, 7.72 in energy efficiency, but only 2.65 in fossil fuels"

"Post-crisis recovery spending offers an opportunity to embed climate-positive behaviours, by supporting teleworking, high-speed broadband connectivity, and residential energy efficiency."

https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/publications/wpapers/workingpaper20-02.pdf

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Yes, this is really good! My wife's working and staff cannot watch today's. So Tesla round 2 is Sat!

How is it possible that anybody can be as smart as Elon Musk? I honestly believe Elon should freeze a lot of his sperm. He now has 5 children. I think he should have many more.

I posted on my facebook page yesterday that a lot of these Minneapolis George Floyd riots were caused by people overreacting to pandemic isolation. Being cooped up in an apartment for two months alone without exercise and washing my hands every 20 minutes would cause me to explode and overreact to any bad news on tv. Heck what do I know? I got so many angry posts that I deleted it. Am I seeing this wrong?

I post this irrelevant information because I don't know how to start a new post. My apologies.

 

[X Fan]

Is everyone ready for another Model X filled SpaceX launch prep for today? Supposedly the weather is still a bit iffy, with a 50% chance of another Scrub. The next launch would be tomorrow, but storms are also predicted for then.

Yup, most of FL is now in the "wet" season with TStorms every afternoon. Northern Fl is much less frequent/severe than South but still an issue.

 

[waterloo42]

Lol, then why does their headline claim "Honda Civic Is Best Seller in California New Vehicle market"?

Jolly jokers just can't bring themselves to see the sea change. Now, with the start of Model Y deliveries, it's coming like a Tidal wave (Tsunami of Hertz?)

Cheers!

They've published a revised PDF with the correct headline:

Tesla Model 3 Is Best Selling Car in California New Vehicle Market; RAV4 is Light Truck Leader

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-20-REVISED.pdf

 

[mongo]

They've published a revised PDF with the correct headline:

Tesla Model 3 Is Best Selling Car in California New Vehicle Market; RAV4 is Light Truck Leader

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-20-REVISED.pdf

Now they just need one more update:
Tesla Model 3 is the Best Selling Vehicle in California, including the Light Truck segment led by RAV4.

 

[elasalle]

I agree with you but...just as Tilburg came to exist to minimize the negative impact of EU duties so also other CKD and/or more specialized factories will certainly be happening. The UK, for example, could well be primarily about storage, and possibly mostly utility level storage. If for vehicles also, perhaps, but certainly no GF. It seems transparently obvious that an application to be a utility-level energy provider is connected to the factory speculation. The time has come to be somewhat more refined in our thinking about what new factories will do. After all Fremont, GF-1 and GF-2 are not remotely similar, nor is GF-3 seeming to be an analogue for any of the others. As for GF-4 we know surprises will come. We seem to be largely ignoring the probable output of new development facilities in China and Germany. Then we have not much direct insight into the pending new US factory, probably Texas. We all assume that that one will produce Cybertruck, and lately we assume Model Y. The Cybertruck one is certainly true but what else? How about storage? A quick change in Texas regulation and suddenly Texas will become the largest NA storage market. Beyond that how will Tesla meet the CA demand for solar roof plus storage as the CA new housing market recovers? Another new factory will be in the offing. Will one of the new ones be on the US/Mexico border, or the US/Canada one? Just think, please, what continuing growth of ~50% per year or even 25% will mean. There must be at least five or six new factories of one size or product combination or other.

We are being far too limited in our thinking.

Given that US Shale/Fracking got recently screwed by OPEC+, if TX (which already has large wind generation) get's into Virtual Grid via storage, US Oil can remain in ground, and there should be public (US) consensus (one would hope) to transition to EV even faster.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Comparing the NASDAQ weekly chart for TSLA vs QQQ (ie: NASDAQ-100 index), we can see that TSLA very nearly recovered the ground it lost midweek as macros posted gains.

I do think some of the gain in the last 15 min of trading for TSLA was (as @Curt Renz often points out to us), large Institutional investors 'right-sizing' returns at the end of the month.

It will be interesting to see if this happens again on Tue, Jun 30 (also the end of the Quarter), so consequently the closing SP is of great interest to large investors.

Cheers!

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Very strange that Elon has not been seen at all today on the launch stream.

 

[Kenypowa]

Who needs advertisement when the livestream is on Model X for 20 minutes.

If the launch is scrubbed today, we will get to see the same coverage again tomorrow.

 

[LJS22]

Very strange that Elon has not been seen at all today on the launch stream.

He’s superstitious

 

[adesai]

Here's my theory:

...if you disrupt the transportation and energy infrastructure of the world, what does that look like in a as-best-as-possible managed way for 7.7B+ people w/ everyone working together w/o wars? Paris Climate Accord by Barack Obama was pretty incredible - signed by every country on the planet. Tesla was skyrocketing leading up to it in 2013/2014 and Paris Climate Accord was signed in 2015. Then, climate/green energy investing was steady-state. Now, its skyrocketing in a more sustainable way and having full support of all sides of the political spectrum in the US and every other country.

I like to share information because, fundamentally, it should not be hidden and should be free. Help yourself by helping others. I think we're all on a path to an amazing future; if we survive climate change and the health + social reaction(s) to it.

Edit: I think the lesson that we're going to learn is that a polished, well-spoken, and great leader who happens to be a black man, and another guy from South Africa, just saved society (and 7.7B people) and put us all on a path to an amazing future.

 

[Khamul]

Very strange that Elon has not been seen at all today on the launch stream.

This is maximum rumour-y, but someone on r/spacex said that he's at a friend's funeral.

 

[LN1_Casey]

This is maximum rumour-y, but someone on r/spacex said that he's at a friend's funeral.

This seems credible, since he'd very likely be there for this otherwise. However, this mission had been scrubbed to this date, and thus if he had some non-changable plans previous, he'd have to pick one.

Edit; also, how committed is Overlord Musk to be the Meme Lord?!

SpaceX Ninja are REAL.

 

[JRP3]

In a new jobs report, Tesla said it had far exceed its obligation to create 1,460 jobs in New York state prior to the governor and president ordering non-essential business to shut down in March. The company concluded some of its jobs were deemed essential but its solar operation was not.

"This directly impacted the vast majority of jobs at Gigafactory New York," Tesla Treasurer Yaron Klein said.

As a result, the company reported that as of April 30, there were 474 jobs created at the Buffalo facility and 352 additional jobs across the state. The report is in line with what the company said during its own investors call last month.

Tesla Says Success Temporarily Tanked by Coronavirus in New Jobs Report

 

[MABMAB]

Shatner ROCKS!

 

[ZeApelido]

I hope this story is all TSLA and Tesla related lol