Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

More garbage from BI.

After Elon Musk called stay-at-home orders 'fascist', a worker in a re-opened Tesla factory reportedly tests positive for COVID-19

A worker in Tesla's Buffalo, New York, factory has tested positive for COVID-19, The Verge reported.

Tesla factories nationwide re-opened in May, with the Buffalo factory opening in May 19.

CEO Elon Musk previously sent Tesla workers in California to work in defiance of the state's stay-at-home orders.

A worker at a Tesla factory in Buffalo, New York, has tested positive for the disease caused by the coronavirus, The Verge reported.

The employee is the fourth known Tesla worker to test positive for COVID-19. CEO Elon Musk reopened Tesla factories nationwide in May, and this is the first Tesla employee at these plants to report that they have become sick.

The Buffalo factory is operated by SolarCity, Tesla's solar energy subsidiary. Typically, the factory employs around 1,500, but nearly 1,000 have been furloughed since the beginning of the virus shutdown, Buffalo Business First reported.

A Tesla spokesperson did not respond to Business Insider's request for comment on Buffalo case, or share if they intended shutter the factory again.

CEO Elon Musk has fought amid the virus shutdowns for his company's factories to continuing producing goods. Critics said that this would put workers at risk, and that Tesla should not re-open factories in defiance of state law. Musk called the lockdown orders "fascist" in a quarterly earnings call with investors on April 29.

Of course, such lockdown orders, while intended to save American lives amid the historic pandemic, prevents Musk's companies from building rockets, spaceships, cars, and solar panels, as Business Insider previously reported.

Musk previously sent Tesla workers in California to work in defiance of the state's stay-at-home orders. Some workers told Business Insider that if they refused to go for health or legal reasons that they feared would be fired.

My company has 25 employees. One got really sick with COVID-19, and 10 weeks later is still not what he'd call "recovered". Today we found out that a co-worker, who had "mild cold" symptoms 10 weeks ago, has antibodies. Honestly I'd be surprised if a major factory didn't have a case or two. Identification, testing, tracking, isolation...

 

[MartinAustin]

More garbage from BI.

A worker in Tesla's Buffalo, New York, factory has tested positive for COVID-19, The Verge reported.

Basing a Tesla article on something you read at The Verge is your first mistake.

 

[Buckminster]

Some nice pictures of the canned Dyson. It seems that the cost got away from them; $189k.... 150kWh battery was their first mistake perhaps.

New images of Dyson's £500M failed electric car revealed | Daily Mail Online

 

[troym]

All we appear to know about Model Y is VINs in the 11K range produced in May are being delivered around now..

It is a reasonable guess that there is some limitation on Model Y production or combined Model 3/Y production at Fremont...
That limit could be:-

• Casting
• Model Y Body Shop
• Paint
• Battery Packs
• Model Y GA

This is why the new factory is needed for Model Y production..

Model 3 production was a different kind of ramp a lot of investment in Fremont and GF1 was directed to volume production of Model 3 and the ramp had to be in sync and more than 5K per week.

For Model Y if there is some bottleneck which limits production until a new factory can be built, that might set the targets in other areas. I doubt it is battery packs, they would be happy to make Model Y instead of Model 3... same for paint...

I've long been of the opinion that we don't understand the run rate of casting, and that casting at GF Shanghai may be more advanced than casting at Fremont/Lathrop, Odiously a new factory would get the latest specially built casting... However my speculation is no better than Troy's, there is a lot we don't know...

Given the price cuts to North American M3, I don't suspect there is a production bottleneck there. If there is, and they are still cutting prices to move volume, the demand would have to be far lower than even the most bearish estimates. I don't believe that to be the case.

Also, given that so many M3 are stranded in North America with no time to load more ships, I think the M3's that they have been discounted may have already started production pre-shutdown and so they were completed even if Tesla would have preferred to focus on building more MY's. What's the latest out of Fremont? Are trucks full of M3's leaving? Or have there been sightings of MY's?

With GF1 shut down for ~6 weeks, I would assume there would be a period of time where Fremont had used all the batteries they had in stock for new builds (or had to intentionally slow down the lines to avoid running out of packs completely). Run rates could be significantly reduced for the period of time between Nevada ramping back up production and shipping those packs to Fremont. Perhaps that is why MY production is lower than you expect? If 11k is true, is that really surprising? How many Y's did they sell in Q1? Wasn't it 2700? So, 8300 produced in May (11-31) or ~2800/week. That sure doesn't sound disappointing to me. From Rob Maurer's estimates, M3 ramp went from 2500 in Q4 17 to 9800 in Q1 18. So, they'd be ramping MY more than 3X faster than that. Also from Maurer, he expects 1500 MY produced in May and 4500 in June for 8700 total M3 production by end of Q2.

 

[MC3OZ]

Given the price cuts to North American M3, I don't suspect there is a production bottleneck there. If there is, and they are still cutting prices to move volume, the demand would have to be far lower than even the most bearish estimates. I don't believe that to be the case.

Also, given that so many M3 are stranded in North America with no time to load more ships, I think the M3's that they have been discounted may have already started production pre-shutdown and so they were completed even if Tesla would have preferred to focus on building more MY's. What's the latest out of Fremont? Are trucks full of M3's leaving? Or have there been sightings of MY's?

With GF1 shut down for ~6 weeks, I would assume there would be a period of time where Fremont had used all the batteries they had in stock for new builds (or had to intentionally slow down the lines to avoid running out of packs completely). Run rates could be significantly reduced for the period of time between Nevada ramping back up production and shipping those packs to Fremont. Perhaps that is why MY production is lower than you expect? If 11k is true, is that really surprising? How many Y's did they sell in Q1? Wasn't it 2700? So, 8300 produced in May (11-31) or ~2800/week. That sure doesn't sound disappointing to me. From Rob Maurer's estimates, M3 ramp went from 2500 in Q4 17 to 9800 in Q1 18. So, they'd be ramping MY more than 3X faster than that. Also from Maurer, he expects 1500 MY produced in May and 4500 in June for 8700 total M3 production by end of Q2.

I'm not trying to be negative, just wondering what the total weekly Model Y production is, and if there is some limit that is hard to exceed at Fremont. There is no issue once the next US factory is up and running...

I saw Rob's video, I think he is mostly right, especially for Q2/Q3.

My question is more whether peak Model Y production is 2K per week, or 4K per week at Fremont? The optimistic view is it was 2K, but it may be 4K by Q4.

We don't have Model Y VIN tracking, drones flying over Fremont, or much additional information.

They are also not planning to export Model Y to Europe or China as far as we know, so there might not be an urgent need for higher production volumes.

 

[kengchang]

I'm not trying to be negative, just wondering what the total weekly Model Y production is, and if there is some limit that is hard to exceed at Fremont. There is no issue once the next US factory is up and running...

I saw Rob's video, I think he is mostly right, especially for Q2/Q3.

My question is more whether peak Model Y production is 2K per week, or 4K per week at Fremont? The optimistic view is it was 2K, but it may be 4K by Q4.

We don't have Model Y VIN tracking, drones flying over Fremont, or much additional information.

They are also not planning to export Model Y to Europe or China as far as we know, so there might not be an urgent need for higher production volumes.

Q3 19

Q4 19

Q1 20

Safe to say it's at least 50K per quarter which is 4K/week.

 

[StealthP3D]

Some nice pictures of the canned Dyson. It seems that the cost got away from them; $189k.... 150kWh battery was their first mistake perhaps.

New images of Dyson's £500M failed electric car revealed | Daily Mail Online

This just shows how difficult it is to compete directly with the Model X! The Model X starts at $85K. 150K Pounds is $189,000!

And I'll tell you one thing, they were dreaming if they thought they could go 600 miles on a 150kWh battery in that behemoth! Tesla could probably get 500 EPA miles out of it, Dyson would stand a slim chance of getting close to that. Optimization takes time.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Anyone have an idea why there is this drop down?

 

[FrankSG]

 

[heltok]

Anyone have an idea why there is this drop down? View attachment 547517

99% sure its incorrect data being visualized.

 

[FrankSG]

Anyone have an idea why there is this drop down? View attachment 547517

I'm not sure if it's accurate, but I've heard this can be caused by options being exercised.

 

[RobStark]

This just shows how difficult it is to compete directly with the Model X! The Model X starts at $85K. 150K Pounds is $189,000!

That is the break even price too. No profit at $189k. So at least $200k if Dyson Automotive did not want be a charity.

 

[LJS22]

Rivian makes cuts and names new chief operating officer

Rivian making some changes. They described the layoffs as talent issues. They mainly come out of the engineering department. I would assume the math is not matching up with what they can produce currently. As Elon said there’s not very many good engineers. Luckily Tesla has some of the best and when it comes to engineers Elon Musk is one of the best in his particular fields.

 

[UncaNed]

Why is there no premarket price yet? No data since yesterday.

 

[RobStark]

Rivian makes cuts and names new chief operating officer

Rivian making some changes. They described the layoffs as talent issues. They mainly come out of the engineering department. I would assume the math is not matching up with what they can produce currently. As Elon said there’s not very many good engineers. Luckily Tesla has some of the best and when it comes to engineers Elon Musk is one of the best in his particular fields.

It is says Rivian riffed 40 employees(mostly engineers/technical) from a staff of ~2,000. So ~2%.

Seems like a big fat nothing burger.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone have an idea why there is this drop down?
View attachment 547517

Sure, 4 Call contracts were executed at 19:44-45 hrs for $312.50 then sold the shares at 19:46 for $882.48 (thus pocketing a cool $225K). Here's the data:

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Why is there no premarket price yet? No data since yesterday.

Just zero volume, I think - other tickers are showing quotes, $NIO traded nearly 500k already

Edit - now we see some trades, but looks like the big volume from Monday is over, for the moment

 

[Artful Dodger]

Servers in NYC took a knee. Data flowing now:

* Real-Time data as of 6/3/2020 5:39:52 AM
$888.15 +$6.59 +0.75%​

Cheers!

 

[EVMeister]

I think I have similar thoughts and feelings listening to this guy as TSLAQ probably feel listening to Elon Musk talk about Tesla. So much hope, so much hype, so much rubbish. Sounds more like a sleazy car salesman than the CEO of a credible company. Anti-vertical integration FTL. Musk knows the technology and his company inside out, very reassuring. This guy seems to just like outsourcing everything and will probably be happy to blame others as they hit the hurdles that they inevitably will.

I'd like to see a reaction video to this one - I loved Rob's continuous nodding in the background where he was clearly thinking "what BS this guy is spewing".

 

[Jack6591]

As a matter of principle I never read CNN nor Foxnews — just tell the facts, I’ll make up my own mind.

Is Elon Musk's Tesla a $1,200 stock?

I like this chart though.