Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

I once again compiled the biggest TSLA shareholders (top 58 this time) as of the end of Q1'20 in this blog post:

TSLA Holders Q1'20 (Top 58)

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

My company has 25 employees. One got really sick with COVID-19, and 10 weeks later is still not what he'd call "recovered". Today we found out that a co-worker, who had "mild cold" symptoms 10 weeks ago, has antibodies. Honestly I'd be surprised if a major factory didn't have a case or two. Identification, testing, tracking, isolation...

At least one out of every 175th US American is or has been infected (330 million / 187k cases). Tesla has around 30k employees so something like 170 employees should be infected or has recovered already.

If only one employee is currently infected Telsa has done an incredible job.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Very low early Pre-market volume: 33,746 by 08:00 hrs ET (SP was $887.50)

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Electrec is reporting on a Stanley Morgan note to investors that I haven't seen discussed here.

It's about valuation of the expected to come soon subscription FSD

Here's the summary from Morgan Stanley

“If we take our estimated 2025E gross profit of ~$24BN, that implies an estimated EBITDA of $18.2BN. At an estimated 0.5x premium to the current MSe 2025E EV/EBITDA, that would imply a share price of roughly $1,150, just below our current bull case valuation of $1,200. To arrive at higher per share values, one would have to assume either higher attach rates, higher FSD prices, a higher multiple, or some combination of the three. For example if we shift the timeline of our “blue sky” scenario up 5 years to 2025 at a 17x EV/EBITDA multiple, we arrive at a roughly $2,000 per share value.”

Personally I think that the day Tesla announces the subscription model the SP will jump $200 and the first day they give out take numbers it will jump another $200. Wall Street loves subscription income.

 

[H Mak]

I once again compiled the biggest TSLA shareholders (top 58 this time) as of the end of Q1'20 in this blog post:

TSLA Holders Q1'20 (Top 58)

This is really interesting and demonstrates the high % holding concentrated in a few committed shareholders. Thanks for providing.
Regarding the post with your quarterly projections (also very useful), I note your caveat regarding price reductions. For what it's worth I contacted Tesla UK this morning to ask whether the same reductions will be applied to the UK. They said they are unaware of any plans to reduce prices. I assume the same applies to other non-US markets, so the reductions in margins seem to be limited to the USA (apart from China).

 

[DrL90]

Given the price cuts to North American M3, I don't suspect there is a production bottleneck there. If there is, and they are still cutting prices to move volume, the demand would have to be far lower than even the most bearish estimates. I don't believe that to be the case.

Also, given that so many M3 are stranded in North America with no time to load more ships, I think the M3's that they have been discounted may have already started production pre-shutdown and so they were completed even if Tesla would have preferred to focus on building more MY's. What's the latest out of Fremont? Are trucks full of M3's leaving? Or have there been sightings of MY's?

With GF1 shut down for ~6 weeks, I would assume there would be a period of time where Fremont had used all the batteries they had in stock for new builds (or had to intentionally slow down the lines to avoid running out of packs completely). Run rates could be significantly reduced for the period of time between Nevada ramping back up production and shipping those packs to Fremont. Perhaps that is why MY production is lower than you expect? If 11k is true, is that really surprising? How many Y's did they sell in Q1? Wasn't it 2700? So, 8300 produced in May (11-31) or ~2800/week. That sure doesn't sound disappointing to me. From Rob Maurer's estimates, M3 ramp went from 2500 in Q4 17 to 9800 in Q1 18. So, they'd be ramping MY more than 3X faster than that. Also from Maurer, he expects 1500 MY produced in May and 4500 in June for 8700 total M3 production by end of Q2.

I've spotted 3 full trucks of MY on the east coast since Friday. 1 on i95 in Delaware and 2 on the Pennsylvania turmpike east of Harrisburg. I've yet to see any M3. Doesn't say much because its only 3 trucks but depending when they left Fremont ill probably see a few more this week.

 

[MartinAustin]

I'd love to jump in here and opine on the NIkola interview, but it simply has no bearing on TSLA and it's the wrong thread. Maybe I will search for the Nikola thread on here and post.

Speaking of TSLA... looking bouyant in pre-market, especially after the 8am EST boundary when activity picks up. I expect a close over $900 today.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I once again compiled the biggest TSLA shareholders (top 58 this time) as of the end of Q1'20 in this blog post:

TSLA Holders Q1'20 (Top 58)

Thank you for that update. Just some thoughts that come to mind:

Almost 153 million shares are in the hands of the 58 biggest shareholders. That leaves about 27 million for the rest, which is not much. I would have think that there are least a million private investors holding between 1 and 10,000 shares. Even if the average is 25 shares that is already 25 million shares. Many of those investors are hodl’ers. Where do those 10-15 millions shares traded every day come from? Are those trading shares that are being held for just a few hours and recycled several times a day?

With the worldwide interest in Tesla and TSLA constantly growing will we not run out of shares to buy?

What will happen when TSLA is included in the S&P 500 (entering immediately as one of the top 50 in market cap) and demand from index funds gets so high that there are no more shares available? Squeeze of the century?

 

[HG Wells]

I once again compiled the biggest TSLA shareholders (top 58 this time) as of the end of Q1'20 in this blog post:

TSLA Holders Q1'20 (Top 58)

Gee, for some reason I dont see my name on that list. /S

 

[saniflash]

I think I have similar thoughts and feelings listening to this guy as TSLAQ probably feel listening to Elon Musk talk about Tesla. So much hope, so much hype, so much rubbish. Sounds more like a sleazy car salesman than the CEO of a credible company. Anti-vertical integration FTL. Musk knows the technology and his company inside out, very reassuring. This guy seems to just like outsourcing everything and will probably be happy to blame others as they hit the hurdles that they inevitably will.

why does this guy talk so much about the listing in the beginning? that totally turned me off. going public is the means to an end and not the end.

 

[juanmedina]

Thank you for that update. Just some thoughts that come to mind:

Almost 153 million shares are in the hands of the 58 biggest shareholders. That leaves about 27 million for the rest, which is not much. I would have think that there are least a million private investors holding between 1 and 10,000 shares. Even if the average is 25 shares that is already 25 million shares. Many of those investors are hodl’ers. Where do those 10-15 millions shares traded every day come from? Are those trading shares that are being held for just a few hours and recycled several times a day?

With the worldwide interest in Tesla and TSLA constantly growing will we not run out of shares to buy?

What will happen when TSLA is included in the S&P 500 (entering immediately as one of the top 50 in market cap) and demand from index funds gets so high that there are no more shares available? Squeeze of the century?

Option buying time ?

 

[marvinat0rz]

I once again compiled the biggest TSLA shareholders (top 58 this time) as of the end of Q1'20 in this blog post:

TSLA Holders Q1'20 (Top 58)

Good work, interesting to see this list.

Just a note -- Norges Bank probably refers to NBIM, Norges Bank Investment Management. So they're not really a bank; the word "bank" just refers to the fact that they represent the Norwegian central bank. This is the so-called Oil Fund, the Norwegian state's pension savings fund. They're in principle actively managed, but have a huge portfolio and are represented in most markets.

Someone in there probably has some opinion on whether Tesla is a long-term viable investment, but in many respects their behavior is usually more like that of an index fund.

 

[dgodfrey]

Thank you for that update. Just some thoughts that come to mind:

Almost 153 million shares are in the hands of the 58 biggest shareholders. That leaves about 27 million for the rest, which is not much. I would have think that there are least a million private investors holding between 1 and 10,000 shares. Even if the average is 25 shares that is already 25 million shares. Many of those investors are hodl’ers. Where do those 10-15 millions shares traded every day come from? Are those trading shares that are being held for just a few hours and recycled several times a day?

With the worldwide interest in Tesla and TSLA constantly growing will we not run out of shares to buy?

What will happen when TSLA is included in the S&P 500 (entering immediately as one of the top 50 in market cap) and demand from index funds gets so high that there are no more shares available? Squeeze of the century?

I don't recall hearing that there is an automatic inclusion to the S&P 500 for the top 50 companies based on market cap. Does anyone have a chart showing where TSLA is on that list?
Does this happen without warning?
Does the new #51 automatically loose their seat?

 

[Krugerrand]

I was joking actually. But I will go on records as saying that I have serious doubts of any meaningful production from this plant until q2 next year... And likely late q2.

Define meaningful production with a number otherwise you can claim you were right regardless of what they do or do not produce.

 

[joh01652]

Given the price cuts to North American M3, I don't suspect there is a production bottleneck there. If there is, and they are still cutting prices to move volume, the demand would have to be far lower than even the most bearish estimates. I don't believe that to be the case.

Also, given that so many M3 are stranded in North America with no time to load more ships, I think the M3's that they have been discounted may have already started production pre-shutdown and so they were completed even if Tesla would have preferred to focus on building more MY's. What's the latest out of Fremont? Are trucks full of M3's leaving? Or have there been sightings of MY's?

With GF1 shut down for ~6 weeks, I would assume there would be a period of time where Fremont had used all the batteries they had in stock for new builds (or had to intentionally slow down the lines to avoid running out of packs completely). Run rates could be significantly reduced for the period of time between Nevada ramping back up production and shipping those packs to Fremont. Perhaps that is why MY production is lower than you expect? If 11k is true, is that really surprising? How many Y's did they sell in Q1? Wasn't it 2700? So, 8300 produced in May (11-31) or ~2800/week. That sure doesn't sound disappointing to me. From Rob Maurer's estimates, M3 ramp went from 2500 in Q4 17 to 9800 in Q1 18. So, they'd be ramping MY more than 3X faster than that. Also from Maurer, he expects 1500 MY produced in May and 4500 in June for 8700 total M3 production by end of Q2.

I had to drive to drive from northern Iowa to Colorado this past Saturday, May 30. I slept in my M3 near the chargers in Dows, IA, and at 5:30am took off heading south down I-35. Within the FIRST HOUR I saw 4 transporters carrying all M3s. For the 12-ish hours I was driving I-35S/I-80W, I saw no less than 17-18 transporters (I lost count, and as I wore out I stopped caring) with M3s, averaging 10-11 vehicles per truckload. I looked hard for a MY but didn't see any, only one MX, no MS. For the round trip from Arizona to Minnesota I saw two MYs at superchargers. Oddly, on Tuesday, June 1, while driving from Trinidad, CO, to Flagstaff, AZ, I only saw two transporters with M3s; of course, I probably passed more, but I was surprised not to see a more steady stream like on Saturday.

Also on Saturday, May 30, I ordered a MY right from my touchscreen while supercharging in Des Moines, IA. A couple hours later I received an email from Tesla stating:
"Complete your delivery profile in your Tesla Account so that we can ensure all of your paperwork is prepared in advance. This must be completed as soon as possible to ensure a VIN is assigned to your account, so please let us know if you encounter any issues.

· Once your VIN is assigned, the typical timeline to take delivery is 3 days. Please let us know your desired delivery availability so she can have your account updated. Due to current events, we are a little more lenient on that timeline, but we will let you know for sure once the VIN has been assigned."

As those who own a Tesla know, once an online order is placed, it takes a few days to assign a VIN while payment, trade-in, etc., are getting hashed out (I'm trading in my May 2019 SR+ M3 w/FSDhw3 and 14000 miles, getting $35,100 trade-in quote from Tesla, cost about $46k new after tax credit factored in). Interestingly, while talking to sales rep yesterday, I requested a hitch added on to my order--the woman said that she could add it on, but it would take 10 additional days before I could take delivery.

I also asked if I could use my own or someone else's referral code to get the 1000 free supercharging miles--she said, no, that they weren't offering free supercharging miles to MY.

Don't know if this info helps anyone, but thought I'd share anyway. Since I have temporarily pretty good access to a sales rep right now, if anyone has any questions they'd like me to ask this individual, feel free to ask me and I'll ask her.

 

[NicoV]

Does anyone remember when the januari 2023 LEAPs should become available? I remember that someone posted the rules for new option releases, but I can’t find that back.
These may be good options to take advantage of the upcoming S&P500 inclusion and ramp of the Europe and China gigafactories, as well as battery announcements, without being tied to a short time horizon. Each of the above events should have completed somewhere in the next 2.5 years.

 

[mongo]

I don't recall hearing that there is an automatic inclusion to the S&P 500 for the top 50 companies based on market cap. Does anyone have a chart showing where TSLA is on that list?
Does this happen without warning?
Does the new #51 automatically loose their seat?

There isn't an automatic inclusion based on market cap. This is refering to the S&P top 50 which is a subset of the 500 updated annually.

S&P 500 Top 50 Index Universe.
Index constituents are drawn from the S&P 500.

Constituent Selection.
At each annual reconstitution, the top 50 companies in the S&P 500, based on float-adjusted market capitalization, are selected for index inclusion. A buffer rule is applied to the constituent selection process at each rebalancing in order to reduce turnover:

1. All companies ranked in the top 45 by float-adjusted market capitalization are automatically selected for index inclusion.

2. Next, any current constituent companies remaining within the top 55 are re-selected for index inclusion, in order by rank, until the 50 company target count has been reached.

3. If the target count still has not been reached, the highest ranking non-constituents are selected until 50 companies are included.

Weighting.
The index is weighted by float-adjusted market capitalization.

What will happen when TSLA is included in the S&P 500 (entering immediately as one of the top 50 in market cap) and demand from index funds gets so high that there are no more shares available? Squeeze of the century?

No one gets kicked out (and no spot opens up) unless they are ranked 56 or lower.

 

[Tslynk67]

Does anyone remember when the januari 2023 LEAPs should become available? I remember that someone posted the rules for new option releases, but I can’t find that back.
These may be good options to take advantage of the upcoming S&P500 inclusion and ramp of the Europe and China gigafactories, as well as battery announcements, without being tied to a short time horizon. Each of the above events should have completed somewhere in the next 2.5 years.

I'm looking for these too - the June 2022's are bit too expensive for my liking... We need some strikes above $2k...

 

[Krugerrand]

Rivian makes cuts and names new chief operating officer

Rivian making some changes. They described the layoffs as talent issues. They mainly come out of the engineering department. I would assume the math is not matching up with what they can produce currently. As Elon said there’s not very many good engineers. Luckily Tesla has some of the best and when it comes to engineers Elon Musk is one of the best in his particular fields.

So that sounds like a ‘reboot’ to me.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

With the worldwide interest in Tesla and TSLA constantly growing will we not run out of shares to buy?

One can see the headlines already.

"Tesla tripple prices due to catastrophic supply problem. Company is doomed"