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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

ZsoZso

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Apr 24, 2014
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Mount-island
Thank you for that update. Just some thoughts that come to mind:

Almost 153 million shares are in the hands of the 58 biggest shareholders. That leaves about 27 million for the rest, which is not much. I would have think that there are least a million private investors holding between 1 and 10,000 shares. Even if the average is 25 shares that is already 25 million shares. Many of those investors are hodl’ers. Where do those 10-15 millions shares traded every day come from? Are those trading shares that are being held for just a few hours and recycled several times a day?

With the worldwide interest in Tesla and TSLA constantly growing will we not run out of shares to buy?

What will happen when TSLA is included in the S&P 500 (entering immediately as one of the top 50 in market cap) and demand from index funds gets so high that there are no more shares available? Squeeze of the century?

In your share counting above, you forgot about the additional "virtual" shares created by all the short sellers. That is an additional 20+ million shares available for the little guys so the pool is practically doubled.
 
Don't forget about the ~11 million shares that have been "created" by the shorts.
This.

Every share shorted is owned by two longs (one of them lending out his shares). If the second owner also lends out his shares, the same share can be sold short again, creating three owners. (Of course only one owner, the final one, will have voting rights, these cannot be multiplied)
 
Thank you for that update. Just some thoughts that come to mind:

Almost 153 million shares are in the hands of the 58 biggest shareholders. That leaves about 27 million for the rest, which is not much. I would have think that there are least a million private investors holding between 1 and 10,000 shares. Even if the average is 25 shares that is already 25 million shares. Many of those investors are hodl’ers. Where do those 10-15 millions shares traded every day come from? Are those trading shares that are being held for just a few hours and recycled several times a day?

With the worldwide interest in Tesla and TSLA constantly growing will we not run out of shares to buy?

What will happen when TSLA is included in the S&P 500 (entering immediately as one of the top 50 in market cap) and demand from index funds gets so high that there are no more shares available? Squeeze of the century?
It is a myth that that are only so many shares available in TSLA or any other stock. With all those with Market Maker status, I.e., brokers and most hedge funds, able to short shares that don't exist and play rope-a-dope when it comes to delivery date, there is almost a limitless supply of shares, irrespective of the number of shares outstanding. As I've mentioned here several times, in a conversation I had with a recently retired NASDAQ lawyer, he confirmed to me that the DTCC (Depository Trust and Clearing Company) has no idea how many shares are in the "system" for any particular stock. Therefore, we may see a squeeze but, probably not like the old-fashioned kind, when there were limited shares in any company. It is not a zero-sum game. Hasn't been for more than a decade.
 
Not sure how long the "Shooting Fish in Barrel" in buying Stocks will last. :)
Market is super optimistic ...
Hope it continues ;)


Dow jumps 300 points in third day of gains as data shows economy is recovering from coronavirus
“Despite several issues of importance — national riots, Chinese relations, an ongoing pandemic — the stock market is primarily focused on a single thing: the restart of U.S. and global economic activities,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told CNBC
 
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Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
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Dec 19, 2018
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S3XY

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Nov 24, 2015
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I'd love to jump in here and opine on the NIkola interview, but it simply has no bearing on TSLA and it's the wrong thread. Maybe I will search for the Nikola thread on here and post.

Speaking of TSLA... looking bouyant in pre-market, especially after the 8am EST boundary when activity picks up. I expect a close over $900 today.
The biggest takeaway I have is the semi patent issue. It sounded to me like this could put a big crimp in Tesla's plans to roll it out. I'm sure that eventually they will figure out a good workaround but I think this explains why Tesla has pushed back the production date. And yes, this could affect stock valuation. At least in the short term that is.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
12,281
125,167
Maple Falls, WA
It is a myth that that are only so many shares available in TSLA or any other stock. With all those with Market Maker status, I.e., brokers and most hedge funds, able to short shares that don't exist and play rope-a-dope when it comes to delivery date, there is almost a limitless supply of shares, irrespective of the number of shares outstanding. As I've mentioned here several times, in a conversation I had with a recently retired NASDAQ lawyer, he confirmed to me that the DTCC (Depository Trust and Clearing Company) has no idea how many shares are in the "system" for any particular stock. Therefore, we may see a squeeze but, probably not like the old-fashioned kind, when there were limited shares in any company. It is not a zero-sum game. Hasn't been for more than a decade.

That's not really true. There is only an almost limitless supply in the short-term. The number of naked short sales cannot continue to grow and balloon to meet long-term demand, only short-term.
 

ggr

Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!
Moderator
Mar 24, 2011
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San Diego, CA
I'd love to jump in here and opine on the NIkola interview, but it simply has no bearing on TSLA and it's the wrong thread. Maybe I will search for the Nikola thread on here and post.

Speaking of TSLA... looking bouyant in pre-market, especially after the 8am EST boundary when activity picks up. I expect a close over $900 today.
It's over in the "other EVs" section: Nikola Motors Hybrid Semi Trucks
 
I am aware - through this thread - of the existence of those millions of 'virtual' shares. But can those also be held by institutions, private investors and index funds? Do they enlarge the pool of shares for hodl'ers?
Everyone could own virtual shares and not know it. When you buy shares of TSLA, it shows in your account that you "own" those shares. It does not identify whether those shares were from a long-sale, or "shares" from a short-sale. When shorts sell these unborrowed shares, somebody (perhaps you) buys them. Even with legitimate short selling, there are millions more "shares in the system" than are outstanding. To reiterate, the DTCC has lost control of the ability to enumerate the number of shares of given a stock in the system.
 

MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
20,842
53,295
Oregon
I am aware - through this thread - of the existence of those millions of 'virtual' shares. But can those also be held by institutions, private investors and index funds? Do they enlarge the pool of shares for hodl'ers?

Yes. The only "virtual" shares are the ones the original long had before they loaned it out. (Well other than any naked short selling, which isn't really supposed to happen.)
 

Crept up to $850... nothing added at $880, but a few 1000's more at $900, $950 and $1000
upload_2020-6-3_16-32-53.png
 

Beltsbear

Active Member
Jan 1, 2016
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8,677
Dc

There was a lot of good content here. But also a lot of BS. I am glad I listened to the whole thing. Rob does a good job as always.

Trevor does go into a lot of detail of how he will proceed and succeed, and I think he actually will. Just not sure how the value of Nikola is anything more then 1 billion. They have not even mastered BMS on a full scale! What are they bringing? Maybe just because they are sort of ahead of most others besides Tesla and Rivian??? They are ahead of GM/Ford for example.

Was interesting to hear Trevors take on the Tesla lawsuit. He spouts off a lie, that he had to sue Tesla, to keep his patent in force. No, you don't need to defend a patent like that. The only right he loses by not suing Tesla, is the right to sue Tesla. (after 3 years or so of known infringement , statute of limitations laws come into effect for that particular entity) If Ford takes his patent he can still sue them.

Of course I think the idea of patenting the location of the driver door is ludicrous. That is the problem in a nutshell.
 
I am aware - through this thread - of the existence of those millions of 'virtual' shares. But can those also be held by institutions, private investors and index funds? Do they enlarge the pool of shares for hodl'ers?
As others have mentioned: yes.

One share can be held by many longs at the same time. The amount of shorts opposite of this ownership, is one less than the amount of longs.

In other words, one true Tesla share could be:

Held by one long, period. (1 long, 0 shorts)

OR

Held by one long, lending his share out to another person that sells it short to a second long. (2 longs, 1 short)

OR

Held by one long, lending his share out to another person that sells it short to a second long, who in turn lends his share out to a second short that sells it to a third long (3 longs, 2 shorts).

ETCETERA

So all these longs do in fact hold shares. The system is strange (and flawed IMHO) but so ingrained in the sense that brokers will even allow you to sell your lent out shares. This should be impossible but brokers just pool some shares and give their clients a virtual 'guarantee' in their accounts equivalent to X number of TSLA shares.

In the days of paper stocks such practices were close to impossible, since no paper = no stock ownership. (Could be circumvented with contracts, but in a digital setting it's all automated)

How many shares are virtual can never be pinpointed with 100% accuracy, which sounds insane to me. It shows the current system has grown beyond our control. (Where there's money to be made...) /endofrant before I get political
 
Maybe heading to Germany for the ground breaking?
Unlikely. A Gulfstream G650ER has an IFR range of 6,400nm at Mach 0.90 and its just 5,800 nm from Los Angeles to Berlin. He wouldn't need a fuel stop enroute.

Elon could be scouting locations for a UK Gigafactory (or having meetings). The new Tesla power company in the UK will need a place to assemble Megapack... :D

Cheers!
 

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