Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Don't worry folks, this isn't manipulation, honest...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Raise your hand if you care who wins this moronic argument.

 

[StealthP3D]

Wait so you are saying when I wrote that post a year ago, you were sure that Tsla would be 800 a year later when historically in the past years there were not only signs of cycling of sp, but Tesla just broke down 180 3 months prior? Did you mortgage out your house last year and bet everything because I want the crystal ball you had.

Don't rewrite history. The claim you made today (that I took exception to) was that there were no signs that it would be going to $800 anytime soon (back in July 2019)!

Now you want me to say I was "sure" of it? That's ridiculous - I'll be the first person to tell you there is no certainty in any market investment. But, even though I had accumulated far too much TSLA by common investment rules in my account, I did manage to sell some other stocks and double my TSLA position on June 4, 2019. And I followed it up by buying options with high strike prices. There's a reason I did that and it wasn't because TSLA showed no signs of going to $800!

 

[Mo City]

Raise your hand if you care who wins this moronic argument.

I'm not taking a side on manipulation.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Don't worry folks, this isn't manipulation, honest...

Less than half the avg volume, easy enough day to manipulate. This price action is absurdly bullish considering the effort to smash SP down. It's like two people show up to buy a tiny position at the open and it takes 10 hedge funds all day to walk it back down, losing money in the process.

They can't do this forever, and SP will continue to pop on any positive news.

 

[StealthP3D]

Raise your hand if you care who wins this moronic argument.

Are you having an argument with yourself?

 

[Curt Renz]

Very low volume today. I don't even think we're going to break 10mil.

There's fairly high trading volume today for GM, F & FCAU. All up over 5% following better than expected overall May sales. Some traders may be selling TSLA to buy the others. Along with thin trading volume, interest in its competitors may be keeping a lid on the TSLA price today. That could change tomorrow, or perhaps it's already starting as we move toward the final hour today.

 

[RobStark]

Not sure I understand opening in UK. Increased cost shipping to mainland and additional tariffs when Brexit is fully in effect. Maybe labor and engineering skills are cheaper in the UK?

It is primarily,but not exclusively, to sell into the 2.2M-2.5M vehicles per year UK Automotive car market behind a 10% tariff wall.

If you are British would you rather have a British built Tesla or Audi/Mercedes/BMW/Alfa Romeo/DS etc for 10% more?

The only premium competition for Tesla behind that tariff wall would be Jaguar Land Rover.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This board has really gone to *sugar*. What's the plan for a reboot?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Does anyone have a view into Max Pain for next week and the week after? I know that Max Pain changes as options are constantly updating, but does it look like there's a clear max pain wall for next Friday and/or the Friday after that? At this point, the stock clearly trading on playing the options and I don't see a catalyst for the stock to break that until Q2 P/D(which I'm bullish on).

I have more funds coming available either Friday or Mon/Tues of next week and trying to determine whether I want to do some short term trading on other stocks and flip them into long term holdings for Tesla sometime before Q2 P/D numbers are out. The fact that the Nasdaq is so close to breaking all time high and we still haven't closed above 900 makes me a bit uneasy on the direction of things(not Tesla specific, just macro trends)....at least until July is here for Tesla when we have multiple catalyst to break from any movement in the macros. I don't believe in a major retracement in the macros, maybe 5-10% retracement. But I do believe that retracement is going to happen in the next month or two.

On one hand, Tesla has mostly missed out on the 15% rally in the Nasdaq over the past month and the company has upcoming catalysts in Q2 P/D, Q2 earnings, and Battery Day to counter a retracement in the Nasdaq.

One the other hand, Tesla has mostly missed out on the 15% rally and could be taken lower despite upcoming catalysts.

Also no need for "Just buy it and hold and you'll be fine in 4 years" lol. I've been accumulating for years now and still bought on the once in a lifetime dip in March and still in the 700's and low 800's. I have never sold a share and won't be until the lower range of my price target is met in 4-5 years. I'm just getting pickier about my investments now since my position in Tesla has grown to many times more than I originally ever thought it would.

 

[RobStark]

Alternate explanation for Elon's trip to London:

"Tesla is hiring for a Program Manager in the insurance and underwriting field in the UK. The job location is in London and is a full-time position. That seems to indicate something that will make Tesla owners and future owners quite happy."​

Tesla Is Hiring For Insurance Program In The UK | CleanTechnica

Cheers!

Elon would fly to London to interview insurance guys instead of the other way around?

 

[StealthP3D]

This board has really gone to *sugar*. What's the plan for a reboot?

You could try not posting anything for a week.

 

[jerry33]

Elon would fly to London to interview insurance guys instead of the other way around?

That would be the safe way. Elon has a jet, someone coming over here would have to fly commercial.

 

[adiggs]

Not quite. The broker can't just decide to sell the share for the original holder and give him back the cash. This would be a taxable event for the owner. It's the broker who is on the hook to replace the actual share. As you say, though, it's quite rare, basically the short seller has to go broke for this to happen.

I think the short sellers has to go broke AND my broker has to go broke before somebody lending out their shares gets back cash instead of shares. As you point out, it's the broker that borrows (example) my shares - not the short seller. I don't care what happens to the short seller, the broker owes me back my shares on demand.

The cash deposited with a 4th party bank is first a backstop for the broker, and secondly a backstop for me (such as my broker going bankrupt). That cash provides me immediate recourse that is out of the short seller's hands (and their bankruptcy) as well as my broker (and their bankruptcy).

 

[LN1_Casey]

That would be the safe way. Elon has a jet, someone coming over here would have to fly commercial.

Also more economical, since there is probably more than one guy to be interviewed.

Or, alternatively, he's off to enjoy some biscuits and tea on his holiday?

 

[Singuy]

Don't rewrite history. The claim you made today (that I took exception to) was that there were no signs that it would be going to $800 anytime soon (back in July 2019)!

Now you want me to say I was "sure" of it? That's ridiculous - I'll be the first person to tell you there is no certainty in any market investment. But, even though I had accumulated far too much TSLA by common investment rules in my account, I did manage to sell some other stocks and double my TSLA position on June 4, 2019. And I followed it up by buying options with high strike prices. There's a reason I did that and it wasn't because TSLA showed no signs of going to $800!

Are you taking things out of context? I was explaining WHY someone would sell in 2019. Obviously that person doesn't expect the stock to be 800 or else why sell? So that person and any long term bull who sold in 2019 did not see any signs of Tesla doubling or tripling. I didn't say it's not going to 800 or whatever. I was explaining how those people were fed up with Tesla as an investment because the sp disappointed them again and again for years. So I was not in the position to call those people stupid if that was their reason.

 

[Tim S]

This board has really gone to *sugar*. What's the plan for a reboot?

I recommend using the Ignore button. I don't even know who Stealth is arguing with (and I don't care) because I can't see their posts.

 

[adiggs]

Does anyone have a view into Max Pain for next week and the week after? I know that Max Pain changes as options are constantly updating, but does it look like there's a clear max pain wall for next Friday and/or the Friday after that? At this point, the stock clearly trading on playing the options and I don't see a catalyst for the stock to break that until Q2 P/D(which I'm bullish on).

I have more funds coming available either Friday or Mon/Tues of next week and trying to determine whether I want to do some short term trading on other stocks and flip them into long term holdings for Tesla sometime before Q2 P/D numbers are out. The fact that the Nasdaq is so close to breaking all time high and we still haven't closed above 900 makes me a bit uneasy on the direction of things(not Tesla specific, just macro trends)....at least until July is here for Tesla when we have multiple catalyst to break from any movement in the macros. I don't believe in a major retracement in the macros, maybe 5-10% retracement. But I do believe that retracement is going to happen in the next month or two.

On one hand, Tesla has mostly missed out on the 15% rally in the Nasdaq over the past month and the company has upcoming catalysts in Q2 P/D, Q2 earnings, and Battery Day to counter a retracement in the Nasdaq.

One the other hand, Tesla has mostly missed out on the 15% rally and could be taken lower despite upcoming catalysts.

Also no need for "Just buy it and hold and you'll be fine in 4 years" lol. I've been accumulating for years now and still bought on the once in a lifetime dip in March and still in the 700's and low 800's. I'm just getting pickier about my investments now since my position in Tesla has grown to many times more than I originally ever thought it would.

The site I use (and keep bookmarked) for max pain is:
Stock Option Max Pain

The home page for that site also has some info about the idea of max pain and OI walls.

One of the notions you'll encounter there - max pain for next week is a nearly meaningless notion. Max pain in future weeks, unless it's a monthly expiration (and maybe even then) is nearly meaningless - the options volume on future weeks is trivially small compared to options volume in the current week (maybe a small start on next week later in the day Friday).


That being said, max pain for this Friday is $850. Next Friday (June 12) is $855, and June 19 is $700 (up from $675 earlier this week).

This week and the June 19 expiration are the two I would lend credence too. You'll see huge existing volume for June 19 as those options have been traded for the last 2 years. There's a particularly large pile of puts at $50 (the TSLA is going bankrupt puts ) -- those are going to be worthless in a couple weeks.

 

[adiggs]

This board has really gone to *sugar*. What's the plan for a reboot?

Is it the board, or this thread? Maybe there are other threads that are more targeted for your interests.

Heck - this just occurred to me. Maybe we can create our own ad hoc strategy / business execution / long term thread that mimics the old pinned post of that name / focus. We don't need it pinned and we don't need the mods to make it for us.

H'mm...

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 13 minutes ago: Tesla announces massive Supercharger expansion in China to support growth - Electrek