Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

You still have a traditional broker? I fired mine back in '98 shortly before my biggest holding soared 36X in one year. He was telling me that company was crap and didn't like placing more buy orders for me. I went online and never looked back!

I went online trading in the 90s and my brokers name has changed a couple of times by way of acquisition/mergers (quick & reilly, ameritrade, scottrade, whatever it is now). I still get someone from the closest office calling me every 5 years or so to offer me training on how to invest because they don't think it's good that I buy mostly one stock and only have two or three stocks in my accounts.

Somehow they can't understand my retail account I have with them isn't the sum total of all my stock. Even when I tell them I have accounts that they don't have access to.

 

[PeterJA]

WARNING: Fanboy Rant

It's silly to claim that you need to live in a detached home to have access to charging.
Residential parking garages - no problem
Work parking garages - no problem
Public parking lots - no problem
Street parking with access to a charger on every street lamp + stand alone chargers + chargers grocery stores etc.

All excellent points, and I'll add one more that is easy to forget because it is hard to model.

Robotaxis will change everything. ...if they happen, which I believe is highly likely.

As Sam Korus of ARK just tweeted (thanks @Mo City for the link), the current ecosystem of ICE automakers and dealers and financiers is dependent on two traditions that Tesla robotaxis will destroy. When car-buying is no longer essential because robotaxi-riding is much cheaper and more convenient, that ecosystem (and much of the oil industry) will collapse.

I believe the collapse will happen much faster than most people expect (if they are thinking about it at all, which seems rare). Even Papa Baron just said he expects TSLA to be up 10x in 10 years. If robotaxis happen, which seems extremely likely within 10 years, this prediction is extremely conservative, as calculated by our own @FrankSG.
My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential

Tesla is busting their behinds to make correct Elon's estimate of a million robotaxis on the road by next year. Production of potential robotaxis is increasing. All it will take to convert potential to actual is a software update, maybe more chargers and cleaning companies that will spring up like mushrooms, and consent of the car owners. Some owners here said they will never consent to strangers riding in their car, even though they don't yet know how Tesla could prevent abuse with the interior camera and smartphone software to report and ban abusers. But even these folks said they might make their second Tesla a robotaxi, especially if it pays for their new Tesla. Every day brings more owners with a second Tesla, especially as TSLA keeps marching upward.

Tesla's mission is to get as many ICE cars off the roads as fast as possible. If too few Tesla owners volunteer their cars to meet robotaxi demand, Tesla could divert production to their own fleet as much as necessary to optimize emissions-reduction. I suspect Tesla is already designing cars specialized to be robotaxis (no steering wheel, more screens)... maybe a cheap one (designed in China?) for basic transportation, and a luxury one for the limousine market. We have no idea what these wily innovators are cooking up, but we do know that Tesla has powerful reasons (both financial and environmental) to make robotaxis happen ASAP, and that Elon doesn't give up.

So I'm with @Krugerrand who distrusts authorities such as Bloomberg New Energy Finance and other forecasters thinking inside the box of history. They can't see much beyond the robotaxi singularity. Well, nobody can, including me. But I can see that whenever robotaxis happen, the event will hit the auto industry and TSLA like a nuclear bomb.

And to investors selling TSLA at a piddly $1000, all I can say is... thank you for helping me buy more.

 

[Todd Burch]

Well that isn't true. He tweeted a number of things today including some excerpts from the 2019 climate impact report. So we don't know how much of the gain today is due to any of the things he tweeted.

Most of today’s gains happened before he tweeted anything.

 

[EVMeister]

Congrats! Although I think that in the long run, that will end up being a very expensive ceramic coating

I sincerely hope so.

 

[Todd Burch]

So I put my Model Y order in May 30, car paid off and I'm ready to get it.

But still no VIN assigned to my account.

Yesterday, upon news that Y was getting referral SC miles, I called Tesla and asked about adding on SC miles onto my Y order now that they were available, but the sales rep wouldn't budge. First she said (after putting me on hold to speak with her supervisor), "well yes, we can use your friend's referral code, but only they will get the miles, not you." After explaining that I wanted to use my own referral code, she again put me on hold for a few minutes to talk to her supervisor, but again came back saying that retroactively adding referral code after ordering wasn't allowed according to "policy."

So $80K of my money has gone to Tesla over the past year, plus trading in my 2019 M3, and they won't give me $10 worth for them of SC credits. Whatever, my TSLA stock has paid for both vehicles so I guess I don't really care. But still...sheesh.

Personally, I don't think the Y has a demand problem. Maybe production issues, but not demand.

You’re sheeshing because you can’t use a referral code on yourself that was enacted AFTER you placed an order?

Sheesh.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Am I the only one thinking that today wasn't February 4th or 19th but rather one or two days earlier? The shorts have to start feeling real pain now and it seems much more likely we go up $100 than down even $25 tomorrow.

 

[cliffski]

old shorts might feel pain, but i wouldnt be too surprised if a lot of ne people start shorting tesla now. The rapid rise, plus the psychological point of crossing $1k, AND being bigger than toyota bothe likley encourage people to think 'this is nuts', if they do not have a deep understanding of the companies trajectory.
Tesla ARE still producing a relatively small amount of cars compared to toyota, ford etc. A superficial analysis could easily conclude that the company is overvalued.
That narrative may change with Q2 production results, and should get destroyed if they hit their 500k a year target this year, but thats way in the future.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Hit $994
Is Semi production memo enough for this jump?
If so, will probably hit $1020 today

FIGJAM!!!!

 

[Mike Smith]

A bunch of analysts are still down in the 2-300 range. There's either going to be upgrades or terminations coming soon.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

So I put my Model Y order in May 30, car paid off and I'm ready to get it.

But still no VIN assigned to my account.

Yesterday, upon news that Y was getting referral SC miles, I called Tesla and asked about adding on SC miles onto my Y order now that they were available, but the sales rep wouldn't budge. First she said (after putting me on hold to speak with her supervisor), "well yes, we can use your friend's referral code, but only they will get the miles, not you." After explaining that I wanted to use my own referral code, she again put me on hold for a few minutes to talk to her supervisor, but again came back saying that retroactively adding referral code after ordering wasn't allowed according to "policy."

So $80K of my money has gone to Tesla over the past year, plus trading in my 2019 M3, and they won't give me $10 worth for them of SC credits. Whatever, my TSLA stock has paid for both vehicles so I guess I don't really care. But still...sheesh.

Personally, I don't think the Y has a demand problem. Maybe production issues, but not demand.

Just cancel & reorder

 

[Fobble]

This is what I always imagined everyone in Arizona was like.

Say what?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Question: How do I post a series of 7 tweets to make it easy and legible for everyone here to read?

How to unroll a Twitter thread

 

[Mike Smith]

$1030 now. The quadruple-digit SP was weirding me out at first but it's really starting to grow on me.

 

[Sudre]

I feel I should urge again what THEY have in mind. Remember that this morning we opened with an EXTRA 12000 calls sold with a $1000 strike price yesterday. Today THEY did not slow down with them. Today we closed with.... OK I want you all to look very closely at this volume...... 40,000+ Call volume with a strike price of $1000.

There are PUTs now coming in at that $1000 and $1010 strikes but 1015 is looking like pretty much tops for Friday. I AM betting they push this down.

For next week THEY also sold 18000 more Calls with a $1000 strike price and next week the SP will do what they want.

This is going to be very interesting. Particularly if Battery Day is announced next week

The graph is todays volume..

 

[Bunky]

Amazing day.

Looking forward to future me thinking that today’s me is cute for thinking today’s gain made it an amazing day.

 

[Mike Smith]

Someone on CNBC (I think Phil Lebeau) was saying he's hearing chatter about Tesla possibly buying SpaceX. Adding SpaceX for around 25% dilution? YES PLEASE.

 

[Fred42]

Cadillac Exterior Design Director Brian Smith Promises Stunning New Electric Cars

The article says Cadillac plans to have a flagship EV sedan by 2025. It repeats the message that they'll have the electric SUV in 2022. In response to a question, Cadillac's design director says they "are staying on track with engineering and marketing and leadership to keep the decisions rolling" and mentions challenges. One is not everyone working at home has the right software. That sounds like a challenge to me.

 

[EinSV]

Someone on CNBC (I think Phil Lebeau) was saying he's hearing chatter about Tesla possibly buying SpaceX. Adding SpaceX for around 25% dilution? YES PLEASE.

0.000% chance of that happening IMO.

 

[StealthP3D]

So I put my Model Y order in May 30, car paid off and I'm ready to get it.

But still no VIN assigned to my account.

Yesterday, upon news that Y was getting referral SC miles, I called Tesla and asked about adding on SC miles onto my Y order now that they were available, but the sales rep wouldn't budge. First she said (after putting me on hold to speak with her supervisor), "well yes, we can use your friend's referral code, but only they will get the miles, not you." After explaining that I wanted to use my own referral code, she again put me on hold for a few minutes to talk to her supervisor, but again came back saying that retroactively adding referral code after ordering wasn't allowed according to "policy."

So $80K of my money has gone to Tesla over the past year, plus trading in my 2019 M3, and they won't give me $10 worth for them of SC credits. Whatever, my TSLA stock has paid for both vehicles so I guess I don't really care. But still...sheesh.

Earlier you posted a question about using your referral code to purchase it retroactively. I would have responded but for two things:

1) It's the wrong thread.
2) It's silly to think you could use an incentive like that retroactively. It's an incentive to encourage word of mouth sales. Once the order is placed without a referral you can't add one after the fact, that would defeat the purpose of referrals. There was a time when Tesla was more lenient on this but that time is long gone.

This is still the wrong thread so lets not discuss it further here.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Where did you get this updated timeline from? No specifics were listed in the email.

I'm definitely guessing based on the fact that the Semi was delayed till 2021 and now Elon in that email is stating they are ready to start getting the semi to volume production now. If they were planning on getting to volume production any later than Q2 2021, what's the point of sending that email? So therefore I'd have to think Semi will be in volume production by Q1 2021 at the latest and possibly as soon as Q4 2020.

There's obviously a lot of pieces to the puzzle that we don't know about yet. There were the rumors that Elon wanted the next factory to be up and running(albeit probably in tent mode or only a partially complete building) by end of 2020.