Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

As much as I'd like to retire in my 30s, I need macros to take a big dump to reconcile with my world view.

My first step to retiring in my 30s is to become someone in my 30s again.

 

[MC3OZ]

I wonder if Elon may use one of the current class 8 truck manufacturers as a contract manufacturer for the Semi. Tesla supplies all the components and they assemble the truck. I see very little IP risk here and it would speed the time to market. I toured the Mack truck plant one time and the assembly is very manual due to the low volume and product variation. It's not at all like high volume car manufacturing. There are only about 200k of these trucks sold per year in the US and the volume of each manufacturer is only 20-90K. Their sales are down and I am sure they would love the assembly business. Sure they may all dream of their own electric truck but they don't have the know how to make it happen. It maybe a good practical solution. Just a thought on how this may play out but understand this goes against Tesla's nature to vertically integrate. Keep in mind the value is in the components going into the truck, batteries, motors, etc not so much in the assembly.

I did think about that, my hunch is they want maximum strength for minimum weight.. so they can offset part of the weight of the battery by reducing the weight of the frame and cab.

The frame needs to be strong and lightweight, the cab only needs to be lightweight and have sufficient strength..

 

[Artful Dodger]

Electrek - hour ago: Ford delays F-150 electric pickup truck to 'mid-2022' - Electrek

Ford's electric F-150 pickup truck is 2 year away, and has been for 12 years:

Cheers!

 

[Mike Smith]

Today:
"We are electrifying and we’re a brand people trust."
-Jim Farley, Ford CEO

Also today:
Ford recalls 2.15 million U.S. vehicles for potentially faulty door latches

 

[Krugerrand]

As much as I'd like to retire in my 30s, I need macros to take a big dump to reconcile with my world view.

I would prefer you just changed your world view and not rain on the parade.

 

[SO16]

Ford's electric F-150 pickup truck is 2 year away, and has been for 12 years:

Cheers!

The Cybertruck is going to have extremely Amazing sales. Not a bad endorsement from someone you may have heard of...

Twitter

“I need that truck. I NEED it.”

 

[Stretch2727]

I did think about that, my hunch is they want maximum strength for minimum weight.. so they can offset part of the weight of the battery by reducing the weight of the frame and cab.

The frame needs to be strong and lightweight, the cab only needs to be lightweight and have sufficient strength..

Contract manufacturing is about building to the OEM (Tesla) specs. Tesla would 100% control the design including the frame and cab. These may even be components supplied by a Tesla supplier or made by Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm aware of how it works. Just saying we're well above the price point for the 2nd tranche, so when the next operational milestone is hit, there's a good chance the average is ready or just about ready.

Yeah could be, but I don't think so. My estimate for today is the 6-mth avg Market Cap is $105.29B and the 1-mth avg Market Cap is $156.52B

Given the way the 6-mth moving average is climbing, it'll be some time yet before Elon qualifies for his 2nd tranche based on Mkt Cap (req'd $150B for both 6 mths and most recent month).

Cheers!

 

[Mike Smith]

I wonder if Elon may use one of the current class 8 truck manufacturers as a contract manufacturer for the Semi. Tesla supplies all the components and they assemble the truck. I see very little IP risk here and it would speed the time to market. I toured the Mack truck plant one time and the assembly is very manual due to the low volume and product variation. It's not at all like high volume car manufacturing. There are only about 200k of these trucks sold per year in the US and the volume of each manufacturer is only 20-90K. Their sales are down and I am sure they would love the assembly business. Sure they may all dream of their own electric truck but they don't have the know how to make it happen. It maybe a good practical solution. Just a thought on how this may play out but understand this goes against Tesla's nature to vertically integrate. Keep in mind the value is in the components going into the truck, batteries, motors, etc not so much in the assembly.

The reason current volume is low is that they're only selling replacement trucks for those that need to be retired. If Tesla offers a much lower cost per mile then the industry will be wanting to replace a much larger part of the total fleet.

 

[pz1975]

This forum needs a "disappointed" button.

Or “not surprised”.

 

[Krugerrand]

Or “not surprised”.

Not helpful
Interesting
Dumb
Wha..?
A million times this
Get off my lawn/island
Go away
Both funny and love
All of the above
None of the above
Wrong thread
Wrong forum

 

[MC3OZ]

The reason current volume is low is that they're only selling replacement trucks for those that need to be retired. If Tesla offers a much lower cost per mile then the industry will be wanting to replace a much larger part of the total fleet.

While that is true, I don't think they need high volumes from Day 1.

Most large fleet owners will evaluate a handful of trucks for a year or 2, perhaps even suggest further improvements..

But after that evaluation period, bulk orders for lots of trucks are a very likely outcome..

Texas is a better location for mass production, but will take time to set up.

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm aware of how it works. Just saying we're well above the price point for the 2nd tranche, so when the next operational milestone is hit, there's a good chance the average is ready or just about ready.

Tesla has already hit the second operational milestone, so it is just a matter of the stock price averages to hit for the second tranche.

 

[dl003]

I would prefer you just changed your world view and not rain on the parade.

Come on, islands gonna get much cheaper
I'd very much like to change my view, if I can see a way the Fed balance sheet and the national debt can resolve themselves. Not gonna bore you with all over pesky things that keep me up at night.

 

[Thekiwi]

I notice @KarenRei posted this on twitter: https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1270878910507626496

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia announced approval for the commercial import of electric cars for sale in the country.

Saudi Arabia's $28Bn Passenger Car Market, 2024 | Segmented by Vehicle Type, Fuel Type, Transmission Type & Region

The Saudi automotive market is bigger than most people picture, growing rapidly, and higher-end.

Saudis import around 1 million cars per year (about half that of the UK). The current market (2019) is worth around $11B per year, but is projected to grow rapidly to $28B in 2024, thanks in part due to the elimination of the ban on women driving.

How Saudis take to electric vehicles is yet to be seen. But one certainly hopes the answer to that is "well". Saudi Arabia has the potential to transition from an oil powerhouse to a solar powerhouse in a post-oil world, and their vehicle fleet to electric alongside it.​

“$11 Billion market” divided by “1 million cars” = $11,000 average selling price. Either one of those numbers is WAY off, or they are all buying fiat pintos (which I doubt).

 

[BlackS]

Ford's electric F-150 pickup truck is 2 year away, and has been for 12 years:

Cheers!

2 years away for the last 12...lol....just like how i turned 21 this year for the last 26 years in a row!

 

[dc_h]

One thing I find amusing, right here:

View attachment 550124

Today's entire price action took place above the upper BB.

Does that create a new support level, or should it be the start of a new base? Big breakout this week already, but it seems like it could go on a tear similar to the breakout from 30 to 270, when they started producing the Model S. A 9x gain would be about 1800.

 

[Artful Dodger]

the mid game starts when the first large jurisdiction approves autonomous driving,

Like Florida?

New Florida Law Just Legalized Driverless, Human-Less, Self-Driving Vehicles | CleanTechnica

It's up to the company to decide when they're ready in FL. The car still has to obey all the traffic laws. FL legislature don't care how a company does it, just so it works, and they know they're responsible if it doesn't. Just like a licenced driver.

Cheers!

 

[troym]

Sorry but you really think Elon wrote out an email to employees and confirmed it on twitter to troll Nikola and/or move up production by 1 month? Really man?

I don't really know how you take the text "It’s time to go all out and bring the Tesla Semi to volume production," as in only moving up production by 1 month. Again, Tesla had already said it was delayed to 2021. I'm feel I'm being conservative by guessing that Semi volume production has been moved up to Q1 2021.

Also, please don't compare what people on this forum say to what Fred does. We are Tesla investors, on a forum, giving our thoughts. Fred poses as a journalist and runs a website that he claims is fair and balanced......while constantly putting his opinion in every article

I repeat - “I certainly won't claim to know why Elon says/tweets/emails what he does.”

 

[obie_fl]

Pretty smart folks. I bought small stakes in ARKG and ARKF (non-Tesla) two months ago. Both up >35%.

You haven't hacked my account have you? I bought the exact same two ETFs two months ago up 39% on both.

Cheers Longs!
I was going to pop a bottle of nice champagne tonight but all my good stuff is at my off site storage. Monkey 47 Gin and some Italian Amaro instead. Cheers!