Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sparky]

I guess TSLA $1k brings it out:
My kid started looking for his first house ~10 weeks ago.
Back up... I have 3 kids.
One worked Tesla GA4 line during Summer 2018 Model 3 ramp.
One is artist turned tech design honcho.
One is former "X-games" champ who used winnings to buy TSLA at $38/share while an undergrad in college. <-- this kid.

Contacts me, 10 weeks ago, says "I'm selling some of my TSLA for the Down-Payment. Do you think this is bad timing"?
Me: Terrible timing. Wait.
Kid: But I need to get the DP together.
Me: We'll loan you $. Sell when the share price recovers and pay us back then. I expect it will break $1k this year.
Today-- via text:
Kid: Sooo, $1k!, I can cut you a check or I can gift you the shares.
Me: Sooo, you gift me the shares, you don't pay 15% Cap gains. That cost basis transfers to me along with the tax liability.
Kid: Yup. But you get these "prime" $38 shares.
Me: (thought bubble) "Kid is smart, knows I'm an addict"... Done!

Anyone else hearing from family today?

 

[mblakele]

“$11 Billion market” divided by “1 million cars” = $11,000 average selling price. Either one of those numbers is WAY off, or they are all buying fiat pintos (which I doubt).

Thanks, good point. Looking closer, I think those two numbers may have come from different sources. A quick trawl through google didn't clear up the discrepancy either. Guess I'll wait and see if Tesla announces anything new in Saudi Arabia.

 

[Mo City]

While that is true, I don't think they need high volumes from Day 1.

Most large fleet owners will evaluate a handful of trucks for a year or 2, perhaps even suggest further improvements..

But after that evaluation period, bulk orders for lots of trucks are a very likely outcome..

Texas is a better location for mass production, but will take time to set up.

I don't think it will take that long.

The trucking mfg business is not as competitive as automobiles or pickup trucks. It's also smaller and much more ripe for disruption. It took Tesla many years to figure out how to become profitable selling autos and they are just now ready to lay an undeniable smack down on competitors. The semi will be a refined piece of next-level weaponry from the start.

Here is my prediction: The Tesla semi will by day 1 of the first delivery have disrupted the trucking industry more than Tesla disrupted the auto industry during its entire existence so far.

There will be no two-year evaluation needed. Once a few of these go into use on a daily basis, there will be a convulsive reaction by the industry when they realize an unfair cheat code exists in real life. Those who got in line early may have a chance to flay competitors because of the radical cost savings.

From our perspective, it will be fun to watch. Not for kids though because the violence and bloodshed level of "breaking the laws of physics" is TV-MA.

 

[StealthP3D]

Btw anyone else feel like given this Semi news came out of nowhere, that the Semi will be part of the battery day demonstration? In the email, Elon states they've improved many aspects of the design and Elon has always said the specs will probably be better than the initial specs(thought we don't know by how much).

The known specs and features of the Semi are so amazing I don't see how they could be meaningfully improved unless you are thinking they could further extend the range or lower the price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

View attachment 550249 Anybody know what happened to TT007 ?

I get "Protected Account" when I search for them on a Twitter indexing site. hth.

 

[Thekiwi]

Thanks, good point. Looking closer, I think those two numbers may have come from different sources. A quick trawl through google didn't clear up the discrepancy either. Guess I'll wait and see if Tesla announces anything new in Saudi Arabia.

Found this which indicates its closer to half a million annually:

And this for revenue:

 

[Prunesquallor]

You haven't hacked my account have you? I bought the exact same two ETFs two months ago up 39% on both.

Cheers Longs!
...

Lol! No hack. Fintech and genomics just seemed like valid investments in the age of CV. I don’t know squat about most of the companies - that’s what Cathie and her cadre are for.

Looks like you caught them right at the bottom of the V. Nice timing.

 

[mblakele]

Found this which indicates its closer to half a million annually:

View attachment 550262

And this for revenue:

View attachment 550265

Yes, and did you notice the chart is labeled SAR not USD? That’d be a steep discount at 1 SAR = 0.27 USD, but at this point I’m not sure what’s accurate.

 

[MC3OZ]

I don't think it will take that long.

The trucking mfg business is not as competitive as automobiles or pickup trucks. It's also smaller and much more ripe for disruption. It took Tesla many years to figure out how to become profitable selling autos and they are just now ready to lay an undeniable smack down on competitors. The semi will be a refined piece of next-level weaponry from the start.

Here is my prediction: The Tesla semi will by day 1 of the first delivery have disrupted the trucking industry more than Tesla disrupted the auto industry during its entire existence so far.

There will be no two-year evaluation needed. Once a few of these go into use on a daily basis, there will be a convulsive reaction by the industry when they realize an unfair cheat code exists in real life. Those who got in line early may have a chance to flay competitors because of the radical cost savings.

From our perspective, it will be fun to watch. Not for kids though because the violence and bloodshed level of "breaking the laws of physics" is TV-MA.

In that case, scaling production volumes will need to be more aggressive....

 

[StealthP3D]

Bloomberg Technology - hour ago:

Dan Ives sounded like he was high on narcotics.

 

[Krugerrand]

Come on, islands gonna get much cheaper
I'd very much like to change my view, if I can see a way the Fed balance sheet and the national debt can resolve themselves. Not gonna bore you with all over pesky things that keep me up at night.

Your choice of course, but wouldn’t you rather sleep like a baby?

Island prices going to make no difference to me.

 

[Mo City]

In that case, scaling production volumes will need to be more aggressive....

IMO, increased market confidence in Tesla quickly scaling battery production caused the $84 gain today.

I don't see any other way to interpret this sentence from the memo: It’s time to go all out and bring the Tesla Semi to volume production.

 

[RobStark]

“$11 Billion market” divided by “1 million cars” = $11,000 average selling price. Either one of those numbers is WAY off, or they are all buying fiat pintos (which I doubt).

Shifting sands of time: The changing nature of Saudi Arabia’s automotive industry

This suggest 11M registered cars on the road.
2018 340k passenger car sales and 82k commercial vehicles.

Turnover of fleet would be 20 ~years. Roughly the same as USA.

 

[Time]

I haven't posted here in a few years. Took me the better part of a decade to figure out that spending time to educate my adversary in this battle didn't make any sense. The short sellers needed to be confident in themselves.

I'm here because I have to share an impossible story, but I have no one to tell in my personal life (for obvious reasons).

I've been an investor in this company for almost 10 years. I tried to ignore my investment as much as I could, doing my best to not let it get to my head too often (on the ups AND the downs). I managed to survive and stay true through every 50%-75% dip over a decade. Even when it was unbearable, and things were out of control, having me think I was watching $$$ disappear forever, I told myself to STFU and ignore the noise. I bought as much as I could afford to lose, knowing anything could happen. But I knew that my knowledge was not false and that, yes, everyone else DID have it wrong this time.

Today, I succumbed to temptation. Today, my ability to withstand faded after a long hard-fought decade of patience and resilience. Today, for the first time, I sold half of all the shares I've ever owned at $1000 each.

And with that, Tesla and it's employees, Elon Musk, and SpaceX and it's employees have changed my life. While this was true every day until now...let's be real...it's never real until it's cash. Because of this miracle, I'm going to be getting an X and it's going to cost me nothing. I now have financial security in ways I never thought would be possible. It is unreal. My decade of patience has changed my life. Stuff makes me tear up. I can't even believe it.

I plan on keeping the other half of my shares for as long as I'm alive. I have many years left on this planet, and I'm not getting off this ride.

Finally, I want to say that I never declared victory at any point in the past decade. My advise to everyone here - you can't declare victory when you are still sitting at the table. Quoting Bane from Dark Knight - "Victory has defeated you" (best fricken quote in the universe) - Never let winning let your guard down! You never say you've won until you've walked away from the table. Stay vigilant, this battle is not over!

I, on the other hand...well...today I walked away from the table today after 10 long painful years...and I'm ****ing declaring me some victory.

I won. And it's ****ing magnificent and glorious. Somehow, I fricken did it. And I am able to give to my family in ways I never thought possible. I feel like the luckiest person on the planet.

To those who bet against my shares for the past decade, you lost. You had malicious intent, and you lost.

God bless Tesla's employees, SpaceX's employees, Elon Musk and his family, and all the people who made this day possible.

 

[dw4ngg]

I haven't posted here in a few years. Took me the better part of a decade to figure out that spending time to educate my adversary in this battle didn't make any sense. The short sellers needed to be confident in themselves.

I'm here because I have to share an impossible story, but I have no one to tell in my personal life (for obvious reasons).

I've been an investor in this company for almost 10 years. I tried to ignore my investment as much as I could, doing my best to not let it get to my head too often (on the ups AND the downs). I managed to survive and stay true through every 50%-75% dip over a decade. Even when it was unbearable, and things were out of control, having me think I was watching $$$ disappear forever, I told myself to STFU and ignore the noise. I bought as much as I could afford to lose, knowing anything could happen. But I knew that my knowledge was not false and that, yes, everyone else DID have it wrong this time.

Today, I succumbed to temptation. Today, my ability to withstand faded after a long hard-fought decade of patience and resilience. Today, for the first time, I sold half my shares at $1000 each.

And with that, Tesla and it's employees, Elon Musk, and SpaceX and it's employees have changed my life. While this was true every day until now...let's be real...it's never real until it's cash. Because of this miracle, I'm going to be getting an X and it's going to cost me nothing. I now have financial security in ways I never thought would be possible. It is unreal. My decade of patience has changed my life. *sugar* makes me tear up. I can't even believe it.

I plan on keeping the other half of my shares for as long as I'm alive. I have many years left on this planet, and I'm not getting off this ride.

Finally, I want to say that I never declared victory at any point in the past decade. My advise to everyone here - you can't declare victory when you are still sitting at the table. Quoting Bane from Dark Knight - "Victory has defeated you" (best fricken quote in the universe) - Never let winning let your guard down! You never say you've won until you've walked away from the table. Stay vigilant, this battle is not over!

I, on the other hand...well...today I walked away from the table today after 10 long painful years...and I'm ****ing declaring me some victory.

I won. And it's ****ing magnificent and glorious. Somehow, I fricken did it. And I am able to give to my family in ways I never thought possible. I feel like the luckiest person on the planet.

To those who bet against my shares for the past decade, you lost. You had malicious intent, and you lost.

God bless Tesla's employees, SpaceX's employees, Elon Musk and his family, and all the people who made this day possible.

A-f*****-men. I’m very happy for you sir. Tesla is doing the same for me. And I too have a Model X now bc of Elon and team. You’re going to love it <3

 

[PeterJA]

Electrek - hour ago: Ford delays F-150 electric pickup truck to 'mid-2022' - Electrek

My crystal ball says this Ford EV will never be released, because Cybertruck will be so superior that Ford will realize they can't sell enough to justify the tooling and brand damage. Or they will be bankrupt by then.

This sad story has historical precedent. In 2015, Infinity canceled their electric LE after they saw Model S and thought: Hmm, back to the drawing board.
https://www.cars.com/articles/infiniti-cancels-electric-car-plans-1420662986218/

 

[Steve m]

 

[StealthP3D]

Contract manufacturing is about building to the OEM (Tesla) specs. Tesla would 100% control the design including the frame and cab. These may even be components supplied by a Tesla supplier or made by Tesla.

You are assuming there is a truck OEM that has enough expertise to build to Tesla specs and could do it at a cost-competitive price compared to Tesla.

Innovation doesn't end at the design - it extends to the production. Tesla is known to rapidly reiterate improvements during production. They would lose that advantage if they farmed it out. For example, there is not an OEM out there that could build Tesla's Cybertruck without doing major learning. This is what Tesla is doing right now in preparation for initial production.

Contract manufacturing for Tesla? Can we stop with the silly talk? It would be like Apple farming out product design and user interface or Amazon farming out their website design.

 

[Cobbler]

Hmmmm... this turned around quickly.... I almost got a hint how it feels to be a $TSLAQ shortseller

FFS people, grow a pair!!

all those: "Elon hurt my feelings because of his tweets; he shoudn't say that! " postings! Get out of $TSLA and buy shares of Tupperware instead

Embrace the volatility!! As a long TSLA-bull, we were born and raised during major swings, FUD & Elon tweets

What has changed in the past 24 hours about Tesla? NOTHING!

We know Q2 is going to suck; you want to make more money during a risky time? This is it! Use this time to get more rich!!
So sit still / buy more shares!. But don't panic sell.

This was just a few weeks ago....

 

[mulder1231]

A-f*****-men. I’m very happy for you sir. Tesla is doing the same for me. And I too have a Model X now bc of Elon and team. You’re going to love it <3

We’ll probably see a nice boost in Model X sales end of this quarter.