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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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No issues with my Model Y. Imagine the odds!

Prolly about 70% or more, depending upon how picky you are.

Our May 2018 Model 3 was perfect. Then we bought a Performance Model 3 at the end of Sept. 2018. I inspected it carefully and it was perfect as well. I kept hearing about panel gaps, paint flaws, etc. but when we went to pick the first one up we had to wait a couple of hours so we went over to the holding lot in a large defunct shopping mall. There were hundreds of brand new Tesla's that hadn't been prepped for delivery yet. I wandered around and inspected around 25 of them closely. I couldn't find a single flaw, the panel gaps looked nice and even, the paint was beautiful, no scratches, etc. I was looking really hard to spot these flaws I was reading about online but there were none to be found. While I'm not saying I wouldn't have found some minor flaws if I kept looking, I had seen enough. These were well-made cars and the noise online was generated by people making mountains out of molehills. :rolleyes:
 
Same. I'm about to shut the computer down for the day and go for a trail run. My kid is getting his toy Model S today. That's all that really matters. :)


p.s. anyone else on Strava? Strava Runner Profile | Gene Leeds

After hours off topic: So when are these Cybertrucks getting made? lol

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Pretty sure there's going to be a whole industry that gets established on Patina patterning on aluminium once Cybertruck start getting delivered.
I think you meant stainless steel.

You would need an inert gas welder to weld 30x SS.
Coincidentally I'm teaching myself how to TIG. However you can stick weld and flux core MIG SS without gas.
 
Ben and his David pose, sighhhhhhhhhhhh

Theory - Fred, Ben used to be a handful of Content creators - 2-3 yrs back. Now there are so many, with many providing better content, and some with better access to EM. So to stay relevant they have started writing hit pieces.

If a few people write to Fred saying quality was superb, would he print an article :)
 
Interesting anecdote (maybe :D). In may 2019 I got a 3rd party auomated quote for the trade in of my pre facelift AP1 model s, which was £35,650. Today the very same company quotes the same car as being worth £37,315.
Thats....strange. Granted my mileage (35k) is low for 4.5 years ownership, but its still weird for a quote to go UP. Is there some cachet in an early model S that used to not be the case? Or is demand for 2nd hand model S higher than supply? Remember this is an early MCU1, AP1 car.
(idly considering trading it in for a top-range model 3).
 
Read this rumor a couple of years ago, about Tesla moving the next S/X to the 3/Y platform to save costs and more commonality. If true, its explains the prototypes of 3s having a larger battery and rumored air suspension coming to the 3/Y. Engineering work on the next S/X.

It is clear Elon doesn't want us speculating, and there is a risk in looking foolish if we speculate.. However, that isn't new territory for me.
The 100 kWh pack in the Model 3 is a software label, but it seems Green thinks an actual 100 kWh pack in the physical horizontal dimensions of a Model 3 pack exists.

In any case we have had plenty of speculation about a Model S/X refresh, Roadrunner
If the result of speculation is to sell more LR and Performance Model Y instead of Model S/X, Tesla can probably live with that for a while.
If an additional result of speculation is to sell more LR and Performance Model Y instead of Model 3, Tesla is probably on balance very happy.

Speculation 1 - A pack in the same horizontal dimensions as a Model 3 pack exists, and can accommodate 75-100 kWh.
That would be used for Performance and LR Model 3/Y and base Model S/X,possibly base Cybertruck - STD Roadrunner

Speculation 2 - If STD Roadrunner can't accommodate 120-150 kWh, a larger pack with the same basic architecture exists
That would be used for Plaid Model S/X, and Cybertruck variants... - BIG Roadrunner

Speculation 3 - the Semi might be 300 Mile - (4 X) BIG Road Runner, 500 Mile (4 X) XXX Roadrunner - 225-250 kWh....

This accommodates all but the Roadster, I would be great if it can use XXX Roadrunner, but I think a specialist pack is more likely.

Speculation 4 - Model Y has been designed and engineered to fit STD Roadrunner packs, Model 3 requires minor changes, Model S/X more substantial changes.

Model S/X will eventually take both STD Roadrunner and BIG Roadrunner packs, Tesla don't want us speculating, mainly because this isn't something they can do quickly..

However this speculation does optimise pack production:-

Fremont, Shanghai, Berlin - STD Roadrunner

Nevada - BIG Roadrunner, XXX Roadrunner.

Texas - STD Roadrunner, BIG Roadrunner.
 
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Autonomy Day was such a big deal for us here on the forum. TSLA fell markedly after the event. In other words there was a lot of buying on the anticipation. Can't help but feel like a lot of the recent climb has been due to the anticipation of Battery Day and Cybertruck factory announcements. Do not be surprised if there is a fall. We're supposed to be experienced now after Autonomy Day :)

SP tanked following Autonomy Day not because of Autonomy Day, but because of bad Q1'19, bad sentiment + FUD, and bad macros.
 
New 8-K filed for renewed/updated agreements between Tesla and Panasonic: SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.

New agreement between Tesla and Panasonic (effective as of Apr 1, 2020 until Mar 31, 2023) sets forth:
  • the specific terms between the parties with respect to
    • pricing,
    • planned investments
    • new technology
  • production capacity commitments by Panasonic
  • purchase volume commitments by Tesla
  • commitments cover the first two years of the Agreement
Notice the use of the term "new technology". This means upgrades at GF1, likely with Panasonic implementing some of the new patented Tesla Bty tech.

Cheers!
 
It is clear Elon doesn't want us speculating, and there is a risk in looking foolish if we speculate.. However, that isn't new territory for me.
The 100 kWh pack in the Model 3 is a software label, but it seems Green thinks an actual 100 kWh pack in the physical horizontal dimensions of a Model 3 pack exists.

He thinks a 100kwh pack in a 3 body exists. No reason it needs to fit in the factory 3 pack though if they're just needing a test mule chassis (and it sounded like that's exactly what he was talking about- internal test vehicles)-and it'd be a lot cheaper to use one of those than an S or X chassis.

We do however know Tesla has continuing contracts for 2170 and 18650 cells from Panasonic at GigaNevada- and that 3/Y are least in need of "new" batteries compared to basically every other model that exists or is on the boards the next couple years.
 
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Probably a good time to get into a straddle strategy to take advantage of the eventual move after quad witching. TSLA at $1000 is ripe for a large move in either direction which will coincide with the end of quad witching. IV is still quit high. So recommend buying stocks to replace the call leg and buy put options to complete the straddle.
 
If you have this laser-engraved into one of your Cybertruck body panels:
View attachment 552331
Be careful if you drive it in the deep south. You don't want to get arrested under one of their laws against lewdness or obscenity.
The south already gave us something that Voyager 2 gave to our milky way. Hopefully we will still be around to answer a future request :cool:
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We do however know Tesla has continuing contracts for 2170 and 18650 cells from Panasonic at GigaNevada- and that 3/Y are least in need of "new" batteries compared to basically every other model that exists or is on the boards the next couple years.

Yes every reason to believe they will continue to use 18650 and 2170 for a while.

A car doesn't need the latest cells to be a great car, a Raven Model S with 18650 cells, is a great car,

Short term this is all about having sufficient cells to ramp production volumes.

They can still make improved versions of 18650 and 2170, that is a continuing trend.
 
After-action Report: Tue, Jun 16, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Record High Open Encourages Whack-a-Mole Trading Day"

Traded: $13,727,774,355.61 ($13.73 B)
Volume: 13,969,231
VWAP: $982.72

Closing SP / VWAP: 99.90%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM: 182.161B / 175.665B = 103.70%​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 57.5% (53rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 59.5% (60th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.75% of Short Volume (47th Percentile rank)

TSLA - SUMMARY TABLE - 2020-06-16.png