Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Calling it now. Elon will send up a cyber truck aiming for mars during the star ship payload demo. He will then stream back some videos of mars using the cybertrucks autopilot cameras to prove its durability.

 

[Silentkeravelt]

Latest video from Jack Rickard about the delay of battery day.
Usual pumping up Tesla's superior battery tech and industry lead.
I urge you to watch it all the way through.

To save time, beginning around 13th minute he gives his "epiphany" theory; battery day delay is so Elon can announce that the new hi-spec battery is already in the current cars, thus avoiding any Osbourne effect. I think TMC members figured that out long ago

I see on Twitter that Jack has sadly been diagnosed with an aggressive cancer. I didn’t watch the full video so may have missed that. Sad news, wish him a full recovery.

 

[Jackl1956]

Hopefully Steve was the one taking the video from the backseat. He's a Tesla board member.
View attachment 554087
https://twitter.com/FutureJurvetson/status/1273639842362953729

During Steve Jurvetson’s —GRIN speech — he recommends the following books:

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by the essayist, scholar and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

The Rational Optimist: a 2010 Popular Science book by Matt Ridley. The book primarily focuses on the benefits of the innate human tendency to trade goods and services. Ridley argues that this trait is the source of human prosperity, and that as people increasingly specialize in their skillsets, we will have increased trade and even more prosperity.

What Technology Wants: a 2010 nonfiction book by Kevin Kelly focused on technology as an extension of life.

The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves. I’m Leading scientific theorist W. Brian Arthur puts forth the first complete theory of the origins and evolution of technology, in a major work that achieves for the invention of new technologies what Darwin’s theory achieved for the emergence of new species.

Mr. Jurvetson, led me into reading that has defined my interests over the past decade of my life. His instincts are profound, much of what he spoke to; Genetics, Robotics, Information Technology, and Nanotechnology has emerged into new and developing technologies altering the course of mankind. He is a true visionary.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

The latest free Tesla advertising on Joe Rogan’s podcast. Released yesterday and has 1 million views. At 33:45

 

[Singuy]

I see on Twitter that Jack has sadly been diagnosed with an aggressive cancer. I didn’t watch the full video so may have missed that. Sad news, wish him a full recovery.

There's a campaign on reddit right now trying to get Elon to give Jack early information about battery day because the cancer is terminal and his time is very limited.

 

[PeterJA]

I'm waiting for Tesla's "best product ever" (Cybertruck, according to Elon), but man, the Y looks badass in black.

https://twitter.com/aikatchu/status/1274159775324889088

 

[Artful Dodger]

Say one of them had written a lot of $1005 calls yesterday. They have a big incentive to keep the price down.

Tagging @Lycanthrope

Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yes, they have restored order and put the cars as S 3 X Y again.

It is interesting that Solar is now the front of the page. Trying to get people to take them up on that and so they can start expanding it, eh?

I was checking this out... Nice!
But...
What caught my attention (as I pretend ordered a Model Y for the 5th time) was the FSD missing verbiage from the past. Basically it claims everything my M3 does today. No reverse summons, no turns in city...
Here is the exact wording

Full Self-Driving Capability
Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.
Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control: assisted stops at traffic controlled intersections.
Coming later this year:
Autosteer on city streets.

It does all of this today.

Meanwhile, I was on some curvy roads in Sedona, and it continues to have issues with these, even with all road makings present center and shoulder. This is indicating system limitations and I no longer have full confidence that it will do left truns at intersections wo some hardware changes. Not to say that cant happen, and Im not suggesting Lidar at all. Perhaps higher resolution side cameras, IDK.

Hence, there are now zero promises of tech coming soon other than auto steer on city streets... which it does already technically.
Anyone who knows me gets that I dont say this lightly.

Sorry for the off topics here, but is Tesla getting honest with FSD? Didnt they promise even more in the past?

 

[Artful Dodger]

To save time, beginning around 13th minute he gives his "epiphany" theory; battery day delay is so Elon can announce that the new hi-spec battery is already in the current cars, thus avoiding any Osbourne effect. I think TMC members figured that out long ago

Mebbe. Chemistry changes alone can extend current pack designs to 1M+ mile service lives. But other wiz-bang news like big cost reductions will depend on the new pack architecture, which we know for certain has NOT happened yet.

So its likely there will be an incremental rollout of new features over the next 2 years. Just like always with Tesla EV tech.

Cheers!

 

[euro2012]

Mebbe. Chemistry changes alone can extend current pack designs to 1M+ mile service lives. But other wiz-bang news like big cost reductions will depend on the new pack architecture, which we know for certain has NOT happened yet.

So its likely there will be an incremental rollout of new features over the next 2 years. Just like always with Tesla EV tech.

Cheers!

I was looking at ordering a model X in BC, Canada last week. Website said delivery time would be 1-2 weeks. I delayed ordering and was going to do it for fathers day. I just checked again and now it says estimated delivery is 8-12 weeks. Wonder why it changed so much? End of quarter change in production, or a shift to different battery chem?

 

[tcoombes]

I was looking at ordering a model X in BC, Canada last week. Website said delivery time would be 1-2 weeks. I delayed ordering and was going to do it for fathers day. I just checked again and now it says estimated delivery is 8-12 weeks. Wonder why it changed so much? End of quarter change in production, or a shift to different battery chem?

EOQ push followed by less time crunch in the next quarter.

 

[johnm6875]

EOQ push followed by less time crunch in the next quarter.

Plus load ships for Europe.

 

[StealthP3D]

There are reflections, but a couple of small places near edges. Fit and finish stuff. Smudges on the hood, as well. Agree - it’s a truck and a prototype - not perfect, adds interest and character. I like it!

There were smudges on the hood? That's it! I'm cancelling both my orders! /s

 

[tcoombes]

There were smudges on the hood? That's it! I'm cancelling both my orders! /s

I’ll take yours then.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I was looking at ordering a model X in BC, Canada last week. Website said delivery time would be 1-2 weeks. I delayed ordering and was going to do it for fathers day. I just checked again and now it says estimated delivery is 8-12 weeks. Wonder why it changed so much? End of quarter change in production, or a shift to different battery chem?

Tesla likely just sold out its stock from the latest batch of deliveries, and the next batch isn't until end of Q3. Are you in the Lower Mainland? That's a really hot market.

If you really do want a Model X before the end of June, and are prepared to travel a bit to pick it up, I'd contact Tesla directly to see if your desired configuration is available elsewhere (for example, Calgary). In fact, with the new v3 Supercharger network connecting the entire Trans-Canada Highway, I see an epic road trip in the making...

Cheers, and good luck with your new X!

 

[AZRI11]

Cool video. High School senior project documentary. Westport Connecticut Police department Model 3 is especially interesting.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I was checking this out... Nice!
But...
What caught my attention (as I pretend ordered a Model Y for the 5th time) was the FSD missing verbiage from the past. Basically it claims everything my M3 does today. No reverse summons, no turns in city...
Here is the exact wording

Full Self-Driving Capability
Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.
Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control: assisted stops at traffic controlled intersections.
Coming later this year:
Autosteer on city streets.

It does all of this today.

Meanwhile, I was on some curvy roads in Sedona, and it continues to have issues with these, even with all road makings present center and shoulder. This is indicating system limitations and I no longer have full confidence that it will do left truns at intersections wo some hardware changes. Not to say that cant happen, and Im not suggesting Lidar at all. Perhaps higher resolution side cameras, IDK.

Hence, there are now zero promises of tech coming soon other than auto steer on city streets... which it does already technically.
Anyone who knows me gets that I dont say this lightly.

Sorry for the off topics here, but is Tesla getting honest with FSD? Didnt they promise even more in the past?

Interesting. I wonder if that means they can recognise all the FSD revenue for new sales up front in their P&L. At first glance it would make sense if they are not required to perform any more than they are already doing.

 

[hobbes]

If anything, it actively gets used as FUD, even if that's not Troys intention.

FUD will be spread no matter if Troy posts his estimates or not. It is the way of life that estimates get better as you gather more information.

The main issue is the data he relies on is less and less relavent as Tesla goes more mainstream. The user inputs to his data contain less and less of the percentage of actual people buying Tesla's every quarter. He tries to extrapolate but it doesn't change the fact that as Tesla ramps deliveries, his method becomes less and less reliable. When Tesla starts producing 150k a quarter and then 200k a quarter, his user input will be even less relevant.

His sheets are not the only input to the estimates.

Its just time to end it.

Why don´t you just ignore it if it´s not good enough for you and leave it to everyone else to decide for themselves?

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

I was checking this out... Nice!
But...
What caught my attention (as I pretend ordered a Model Y for the 5th time) was the FSD missing verbiage from the past. Basically it claims everything my M3 does today. No reverse summons, no turns in city...
Here is the exact wording

Full Self-Driving Capability
Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.
Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control: assisted stops at traffic controlled intersections.
Coming later this year:
Autosteer on city streets.

It does all of this today.

Meanwhile, I was on some curvy roads in Sedona, and it continues to have issues with these, even with all road makings present center and shoulder. This is indicating system limitations and I no longer have full confidence that it will do left truns at intersections wo some hardware changes. Not to say that cant happen, and Im not suggesting Lidar at all. Perhaps higher resolution side cameras, IDK.

Hence, there are now zero promises of tech coming soon other than auto steer on city streets... which it does already technically.
Anyone who knows me gets that I dont say this lightly.

Sorry for the off topics here, but is Tesla getting honest with FSD? Didnt they promise even more in the past?

My understanding is that Autosteer on city streets will include turns at intersections and that is not available today. I am also hoping it will include roundabouts as we have lots here in the UK.

 

[charlesgres]

Yes, I think that's the assumption, and yes, I think it is also correct.

But I think there's another aspect to the whole "max pain" theory. Most of the market makers use "delta hedging", so the relative effects of selling options are roughly equivalent to the relative effects of buying/shorting stock, for them. So they actually have relatively little reason to futz with the stock price. But there are other forces out there, who are big players but not the market makers, and who might not have been hedged in that way. Say one of them had written a lot of $1005 calls yesterday. They have a big incentive to keep the price down. Anyway, that's just my theory, that we can't assume that all the big players and market makers all have the same goal.

Yeah, but doesn't that mean that you can't really know where the real attractor SP is unless you know who the manipulators are and how much they have at stake? Which is kind of impossible to know..

In other words, sites like opricot may very well show the max-pain point, but that's not necessarily where the counteracting forces move the price to.. So pretty worthless in the end..