I see on Twitter that Jack has sadly been diagnosed with an aggressive cancer. I didn’t watch the full video so may have missed that. Sad news, wish him a full recovery.
Latest video from Jack Rickard about the delay of battery day.
Usual pumping up Tesla's superior battery tech and industry lead.
I urge you to watch it all the way through.
To elaborate, Jack theorizes why battery day has been delayed multiple times from 12:00 - 20:00. His argument is that they can't hold the event until the new batteries are already in vehicles being shipped for fear of Osborning sales of vehicles with the old batteries. He cites Model Y/3 specifically and a 400 mile range.
It's a possibility, but I don't think a certainty.
There are a couple of ways Tesla could manage this problem and are strategies they currently employ:
1) Provide details of the progress but give a long lead-time (12-18 months) or none at all, as per Roadster/Semi/Plaid.
2) Put the new tech in US/North American vehicles only with long lead-time or no date at all for ROW, as per usual vehicle rollouts.
3) Put the new tech in S/X only with long lead-time for Y/3 implementation or no date at all. I think that would be a great way to revive slumping S/X sales and further differentiate between Y/3. A tandem announcement of the battery w/Plaid would do similar (and perhaps the forever-imminent interior refresh). Given the S/X are still using the 18650's from Panasonic in Japan (correct me if I'm wrong?) and Tesla is battery-constrained for the foreseeable future, maybe this isn't supply they would give up? I don't see the new battery tech going in 3/Y only though, as that would add even more fuel to the argument that the S/X are falling behind their cheaper siblings, specifically re: dated interior/exterior and charging.
OTOH, Jack could be right and certainly has a track record of being so (see his massive gains from going long volatility before Tesla's massive run-up). With Autonomy Day, HW3 was already being shipped in all models. This weakened the argument S/X will forever get the best tech first. Following that trend, maybe it will already being shipped in all the vehicles upon announcement after all.
Lastly, Jack mentions he has lung cancer in the vid and seems to have accepted the consequences with a certain level of enthusiasm and confidence in his faith. His vocal cords are damaged as well and he appears to struggle more than usual in his latest posting. From what he said, we may only get a few more videos from him.
His candor, incredible depth of knowledge, and ballsy stock/option trades will be dearly missed when his time comes.