Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CyberDutchie]

Reason? If you want reason I suggest you'll get more from a roulette wheel. Pay attention to the random gyrations of TT007 at your peril.

On Monday it's:


On Wednesday it's:


Nothing's changed in years of posting. Always certain, usually wrong.

I think it’s a sign of high anxiety over the stock price in general. I’m not surprised, that’s only human especially when you are making big bets. Heck, I’m getting nervous too, not over the FUD but the spike in cases. We may be in for a bit of a correction due to Covid here and TSLA won’t be immune to that, as we saw the first time around.

 

[pz1975]

Picking up my Model Y in Vancouver, BC on Saturday (June 27) - VIN 19xxx. I'll miss my 2013 Model S I am replacing, but I can't wait!

 

[Mo City]

Nervousness right now is understandable, but I think you gotta hold until Q2 deliveries, which will very likely beat expectations. Remember how TSLA reacted the last two quarters.

Best bet is to hold and play the long game.

 

[dha]

...you gotta hold until Q2 deliveries, which will very likely beat expectations

What do you base this on?

 

[Singuy]

What do you base this on?

I would base this on the fact that you can't get s/x/3/Y before the quarter ends if you order today, not even in California. Seems like Tesla is pushing for delivering more cars than production this q and going all out. Elon wants to show some strength by breaking some kind of record during a pandemic plus shut down. My money is on breaking a gaap profit record with as much fsd/EV credit/over deliveries as possible.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I would love to see a coordinated LONG attack.

Lol, TSLA is the LONG attack. ICE KILLER. Agile, mobile, hostile.

But don't tell anybody. It's a secret.

Cheers!

 

[dha]

I would base this on the fact that you can't get s/x/3/Y before the quarter ends if you order today, not even in California.

But the quarter ends in less than a week. Is it normal to go from order to delivery in 6 days?

 

[Singuy]

But the quarter ends in less than a week. Is it normal to go from order to delivery in 6 days?

I remember you can order and receive a car the same week or within 72hrs in California. Delivery time has never been this long for that state which tells me that Tesla is selling the over stock from q1 while new cars are going to europe for next q. This to me means they are discouraging people from ordering brand new customized cars and encouraging people to look under inventories instead.

 

[kengchang]

But the quarter ends in less than a week. Is it normal to go from order to delivery in 6 days?

You have to order from inventory otherwise it's jackpot shot with your configuration vs available inventory

 

[dha]

I remember you can order and receive a car the same week or within 72hrs in California. Delivery time has never been this long for that state which tells me that Tesla is selling the over stock from q1 while new cars are going to europe for next q. This to me means they are discouraging people from ordering brand new customized cars and encouraging people to look under inventories instead.

If this were the case one would expect to see pretty low inventory, no? I just did a search and found 24 new S, 50 new 3 and 26 new X within 25 miles of my zip code. Is this considered low? I remember looking some previous quarters where there was literally zero inventory available.

 

[kengchang]

If this were the case one would expect to see pretty low inventory, no? I just did a search and found 24 new S, 50 new 3 and 26 new X within 25 miles of my zip code. Is this considered low? I remember looking some previous quarters where there was literally zero inventory available.

Tesla has to build enough inventory to last them through late August until the production line switches back to NA configuration...

 

[LN1_Casey]

If this were the case one would expect to see pretty low inventory, no? I just did a search and found 24 new S, 50 new 3 and 26 new X within 25 miles of my zip code. Is this considered low? I remember looking some previous quarters where there was literally zero inventory available.

...You're in Los Angeles.

Try that somewhere more remote. There is none within 100 miles of Hanford, CA; the closest are actually in Los Angeles, which is a 4 hour drive from there.

Edit: EV-CPO.com has only 337 new Tesla Model S's in the entire country. 437 model X, and 798 model 3's and you can't select for Ys.

I'm not saying they're going to sell all of these before EOQ, but I think it'll be a barren picking field before they start producing for the US again in August.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Bottom confirmed.

PS. Wasn't the below posted by you like...what...yesterday?

Indeed, this is the bottom of a classic 'swing trade'. TSLA will open at or near the Middle Bollinger Band tomorrow morning (~950ish), which will lead to a wave of technical buying.

TSLA has had strong support at the Middle-BB since April 6th, 2020. With no news, that's not going to change. Tomorrow's the bounce, IMO.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

This could be Tesla telegraphing a big beat, imho. It could also be nothing of the sort, but...

No, that's more likely Ross pulling a 'Gerber'. He's not actually that sharp on Tesla operations...

Cheers!

 

[dha]

...You're in Los Angeles.

Try that somewhere more remote. There is none within 100 miles of Hanford, CA; the closest are actually in Los Angeles, which is a 4 hour drive from there.

Well, I presume that's because there are no delivery centers within 100 miles of that town.

It would be a useful exercise to find the zip codes of all the delivery centers, query each one for availability and use that to gauge inventory over time. And to see how that tracks with reported delivery numbers. Maybe I'll script that when I get a chance. Unless someone out there is already collecting that kind of data?

 

[AZRI11]

No, that's more likely Ross pulling a 'Gerber'. He's not actually that sharp on Tesla operations...

Cheers!

He has great insight on Cannabis and Disney

 

[LN1_Casey]

Well, I presume that's because there are no delivery centers within 100 miles of that town.

It would be a useful exercise to find the zip codes of all the delivery centers, query each one for availability and use that to gauge inventory over time. And to see how that tracks with reported delivery numbers. Maybe I'll script that when I get a chance. Unless someone out there is already collecting that kind of data?

I edited my above post for something similar--usng EV-CPO, which crawls all Tesla locations, and the numbers there.

There is one delivery center near Hanford--Fresno, CA, which is about 40 miles away.

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla releases new solar panel, slashes prices - Electrek

With the new solar panels, which are 10% more powerful according to a source familiar with the matter, Tesla’s medium-size solar system outputs now 8.16 kW and it costs just $16,000 before incentives or $1.96 per watt.

Was there any speculation on the source of these panels?

Imported from China seems likely.

 

[Tslynk67]

August delivery for all new orders in Belgium now.

Inventory now down to 11 M3 (was 67 3 weeks back) and a couple of S/X.

Norway - 70+ delivery each of the last two days, 90% LR/P

Obviously lower due to the C19 mess, but I'm not seeing any demand issues, TBH.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Did you notice these nuggets from the 'Kato Road' development document? City of Fremont: Tesla 47700 Kato Road and 1055 Page Avenue Improvements Project Initial Study

• The current instantaneous electrical load for existing uses at both buildings is estimated to be approximately 4.5 megawatts (MW), inclusive of existing battery manufacturing facilities (known as Tera), compressors, current R&D operations at both buildings, and auxiliary power needs.
• The total estimated instantaneous power demand at buildout of the Project is estimated to be approximately 10.5 MW
• Almost all of this increased electrical power is needed to serve the electrical demands of the new battery manufacturing operations (known as Roadrunner) within the Kato building, plus a smaller test operation within the Page building
• This equipment is assumed to operate 24 hours per day, for 365 days per year.

So, (in spite of some knee-jerk reactions) the manufacturing facility at Kato Rd on Fremont will NOT be a "Tera-factory". "TERA" or "Tera" is the name given to Tesla's existing manufacturing line in the building (which is most likely where they manufacture existing-design 100KWh packs for Model S/X).

The predicted increase in annual energy consumption from the proposed bty cell / pack manufacturing operation (72,800 MWhr/yr) is sufficient to support Model S/X batteries but NOT Model 3/Y (manufacturing for which will almost certainly remain in Nevada).

I particularly liked this nugget from the Proposal:

• The Project does include construction of a small electrical substation immediately adjacent to the Kato building.
• This substation does not increase overall power load to the building, but will be used to even-out surges and dips in electrical power to maintain consistent power loads to the new machinery.

So, Roadrunner is going to be powered by MEGAPACK! As it should be.

Cheers!

P.S. "El Rayo" is the Lightning!