Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

So what are people’s opinions on profit?
Is the 90K deliveries likely to result in a profit? How reliant will things be on:
1) Delivery numbers
2) FSD/autopilot purchases
3) Regulatory credits

Regulatory Credits will be the most important determinant of profit.
See my Q2 Profit estimates here:
Near-future quarterly financial projections

 

[Causalien]

OT - NKLA
Any one wanna comment on this?
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1278728427156262912
$NKLA - I still don’t get why a huge arbitrage exists between $NKLA shares @ $61.50, and $NKLAW warrants @ $35.10 plus exercise price @ $11.50. The 23.9M $NKLAW warrants are exercisable starting tomorrow 7/3

I haven't gone in detail about the math because I don't want to think about NKLA. But when this happens, the most likely explanation is the borrow cost or option premium and the failure to delivery fees. Last I heard, getting exercised on NKLA and ending up short by accident will empty your account and give you a margin call.

 

[smorgasbord]

My 10 year old son watches me wake up early every morning to trade, on 06/02 and 06/16, he gave me $200 and said buy some fractional shares of tesla. 30% return in one month aint too bad!

I bet he's never seen a drill with a cord, either!

 

[Mo City]

Market caps in billions:
TSLA $223.76
TM $174.80

 

[[email protected]]

Nice. He responded to Fact Checking.

That was the joke about talking to himself.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

It isn't about the instantaneous market cap, but about the 6-month and 1-month average market cap. @KarenRei had created a spreadsheet that tracked how many days it would take at a given stock price to achieve the necessary averages, but I'm not sure where that is. (And I think it was aimed at the first trance which is already done.)

So probably soon.

Market cap is just one of three factors. Revenue and Ebitda also have to reach certain milestones: $35 and $3 billion for the second tranche and $55 and $4.5 billion for the third one. So not there yet.

 

[hobbes]

Pardon my ignorance but just woke up to nice Bday surprise!!!! Do we know GAAP?

Here you go:
United States Generally Accepted Accounting Principles – Wikipedia

 

[StealthP3D]

How does a 10 year old have $200?

$200 is the new $20. When I was a kid, getting $5 for my birthday was golden!

The real answer is "money is as scarce as you make it". If you hold onto it too tightly, you will squeeze it all away! It looks like BlackS's kid is learning early not to hold onto his money too tightly!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Note that the 8-10k sold from inventory during the quarter will have decreased margins due to being manufactured in Q1, when these cost reductions were not yet recognized, but still sold at a $5k discount. But other than that, totally agree!

That's not certain. The price cuts came on Jun 4 toward the end of 2020Q2 when most of the vehicles produced in Q1 were likely already delivered.

Further, some vehicles produced in Q2 (~3 wks worth between May 11-Jun 04) benefited from lower COGS due to the lower bty cost, but still sold for the full retail price BEFORE the price cuts on Jun 4th.

I think its just as likely that Tesla actually timed the price cuts take effect as soon as possible after the old inventory had been moved through the system.

Cheers!

 

[BlackS]

$200 is the new $20. When I was a kid, getting $5 for my birthday was golden!

The real answer is "money is as scarce as you make it". If you hold onto it too tightly, you will squeeze it all away! It looks like BlackS's kid is learning early not to hold onto his money too tightly!

Unfortunately....our dollar is getting devalued daily with the unlimited fed printing

 

[ktrivedi70]

That was the joke about talking to himself.

Ah,,,my higher reasoning functions are being disrupted by today's price action.
Or, I'm an idiot.
Definitely one of the two.

 

[StealthP3D]

Actually $400....he saves every cent he gets from bdays, christmas, doing work around the house...etc....been teaching him the power of compounding and investing for the long haul. The next lesson is about paying taxes

He needs to learn about rent and utilities too!

 

[Bunky]

I know pre-announcing earnings isn't as much of a thing anymore, but if Elon had enough visibility to say they were close to break even before quarter end, anyone think they may pre-announce if its a surprise to the upside?

I would be surprised myself but just thinking out loud.

 

[BlackS]

'It's Tesla's world and everyone else is paying rent': analyst




Tesla’s surprisingly solid delivery numbers out Thursday underscore the point.

The company said it delivered 90,650 cars in the second quarter, trouncing Wall Street estimates for 72,000. In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 88,496 cars. Importantly, Tesla pointed out it has successfully ramped production back up at Fremont to pre-COVID closure levels.

Tesla shares rose as much as 9% on the news.

 

[Silentkeravelt]

 

[LN1_Casey]

A great video about the Cybertruck from a fairly small channel.

"I am prepared to be that D-bag." lol.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Loup Ventures

The rest of the auto industry is in trouble...gene munster

Let's get the permanent link into our TMC vault, since it'll scroll off the top of the L.V. homepage in short order:

The Rest of the Auto Industry Is in Trouble | Loup Ventures

Cheers!

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - half hour ago: Tesla’s Deliveries Were a ‘Home Run.’ Here’s What Wall Street Is Saying.

Excerpts:

It’s no surprise that Wall Street is impressed. The electric-vehicle pioneer not only continues to defy bearish projections about its performance, it is doing better than the most enthusiastic analysts had predicted.

“Musk & Co. hit a home run,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a Thursday research report. “A 90,000 delivery number in this Covid lock down environment is a jaw dropper and the bulls will run with this as a potential paradigm changer moving ahead.”

 

[joh01652]

Of course it’s not just the NYT. It kills me to be so pessimistic about journalism these days.

Eventually, out of the ashes, a new kind of journalism will emerge. Perhaps global nonprofits dedicated to impartiality, and courageous reporting that bucks the Twittersphere trends.

Until then, forums like this are essential to disseminate helpful information.

Yes, if I'm busy and can't get around to anything else in a day, I always come here and read every post--best Tesla news out there

 

[Singuy]

View attachment 559664

Sec do your job. Elon tries to warn short sellers about results on Twitter.