Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbM3]

Lol, what's your exit strategy for BA? You know Elon's coming to disrupt the industry, right?

Tesla electric aircraft: Elon Musk responds to ‘Model V’ concept VTOL

We need batteries with 500Wh/kg energy density to enable transcontinental commercial aircraft. We'll find out more on Battery Day in September. Personally I think that's 7-8 years off.

Intercontinental Flight will be disrupted by SpaceX/Starship Earth-to-Earth. I give that a non-zero chance of happening beginning in about 10 years (w. chances increasing year-by-year thereafter).

Congrats on your gains. Use them well!

Cheers!

‘Only 500 Wh / kg. We’re you perhaps unaware that Nikola has already achieved that and further that Trevor intends to give it away to everyone to advance sustainable transport?

problem Solved

 

[juanmedina]

Would be nice to have in a Roth but I cannot come to terms with the huge one time tax bill.

For those 55 and over, there is a 401k "Rule of 55". You can withdrawal from your 401K even partially without the 10% penalty starting the year you turn 55. You do not need to wait until 59 1/2. Obviously you still pay taxes but you do not pay the 10% penalty.

-You need to leave your job. (Does not matter how, layoff, quit, etc)
-You cannot roll the funds into an IRA. The funds need to stay in the 401K.

Not planning on doing this but good to know it is there should I decide to "Call in Rich". I am 55.

You don't have to do the whole chunk in one shot and you can spread for as many years as you like. The Roth ladder is used for people that early retire. They roll only their annual expenses every year and since they are not working their tax bill is minimal.

 

[elasalle]

Would be nice to have in a Roth but I cannot come to terms with the huge one time tax bill.

For those 55 and over, there is a 401k "Rule of 55". You can withdrawal from your 401K even partially without the 10% penalty starting the year you turn 55. You do not need to wait until 59 1/2. Obviously you still pay taxes but you do not pay the 10% penalty.

-You need to leave your job. (Does not matter how, layoff, quit, etc)
-You cannot roll the funds into an IRA. The funds need to stay in the 401K.

Not planning on doing this but good to know it is there should I decide to "Call in Rich". I am 55.

Interesting. Once you leave job, how long do you need to stay retired? What if you want to take a 1 year break?

 

[tcoombes]

I understand sales of these t-shirts have dropped precipitously:

But sales are picking back up again. Apparently $TSLAQ discovered them. $1000 is their new dream price!

Still 3x the valuation of some analysts. Let’s send them a batch.

 

[The Martian]

Those are some high-quality shorts. You can't pretend to be Liberace by using cheap fabric! IMO, Tesla probably pays over $20/pair wholesale.

And compared to the typical low-quality shorts you'll find on the Street, there's no contest!

LOL "high-quality shorts". That's the words I'm looking for. No wonder those shorts lasted so long.

 

[Singuy]

Jeez, these charts are scary. Something *not natural* is going on.

Reminds me of the first time we went to 900, but on steroids.

Anyone know what the float is when BKRH got into the S&P?
I wonder if this is a crescendo to a S&P squeeze of unprecedented proportions.

You guys think manipulators are pumping up the market cap prior to S&P inclusion so then the market cap becomes say 2% of the entire S&P when inclusion is announced therefore over 150 million shares need to be bought? And how there are not enough float so it will create a massive S&P squeeze so these manipulators can bank?

Seems like it's a once in a life time opportunity because

1. Tsla valuation is goin to be the largest when induction happens.
2. Float for Tsla shares are incredibility low
3. CEO hinted at profitability with short shorts and leaked emails.

You just don't get this kind of opportunity ever. Have the S&P funds do the work for you as the stock pops.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So if some of this is short squeezing, any idea on when that might peak? Is the answer "the day after Q2 profit is announced"?

Of course NOT! The S&P Index funds don't start the real buying until after the S&P Committee meeting, and a public announcement that TSLA will be included in the NDX.

Then ( h/t @Curt Renz ) there's 5-7 days pre-notice when the REAL buying is done. Could be ~40 M shares need to be shifted...

Even after that, there's BTY DAY on Sep 15th! And Q3 P&D 2 wks after that! And Q3 results 3 wks after that!

Sorry have to stop now. Have broken the 'exclam' key on my kybd.

Cheers!

 

[wipster]

After-action Report: Mon, Jul 06, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Hits ATHs in All 4 SP Categories"

Traded: $27,188,304,077.49 ($27.188 B)
Volume: 20,616,338
VWAP: $1,318.77

Closing SP / VWAP: 104.32%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $254.394B / $175.401B = 145.04%​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 60.2% (54th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 44.6% (45th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.08% of Short Volume (50th Percentile rank)​

View attachment 561369

Comment: "TSLA runs up to $1,430 After-hrs"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

Are you coming out with a "Greatest Hits" in the next year or two Lodger?

 

[tcoombes]

It would be interesting to graph on a timeline the stock chart of TSLA marked with when BI published Tesla-related articles.

BI was out in full force FUD this morning. Obviously irrelevant.

 

[lafrisbee]

Where is everybody? Someone go up and down the dorm hallway bangin on doors... it's party time again...

that was posted at 10 Am this morning.
Ya all go to bed...wake up early.

 

[smorgasbord]

Of course NOT! The S&P Index funds don't start the real buying until after the S&P Committee meeting, and a public announcement that TSLA will be included in the NDX.

Then ( h/t @Curt Renz ) there's 5-7 days pre-notice when the REAL buying is done. Could be ~40 M shares need to be shifted...

Even after that, there's BTY DAY on Sep 15th! And Q3 P&D 2 wks after that! And Q3 results 3 wks after that!

Sorry have to stop now. Have broken the 'exclam' key on my kybd.

Cheers!

I think 40M shares is an under-calculation by at least 50%:

• $10 Trillion is invested in S&P 500 index funds
• Tesla will come in at 1% or more of the S&P
• Therefore, $100 Billion of TSLA needs to be purchased in the 10 days when the S&P committee formally announces the inclusion until the actual inclusion.
• Tesla market cap is $254 Billion today, so $100 Billion is almost 40% of the float needs to be purchased.
• But, Elon and institutions and longs like us hold a huge percentage of shares.
• So, how can the price not sky-rocket?

 

[Knightshade]

Found this article on the VW squeeze

The big difference there- the vast majority of stock was owned by one company that wasn't selling...and most of the rest by a government that wasn't selling.

There was literally not enough stock in private hands to cover the shorts.

That's not remotely the case right now with Tesla.

Though the shorts might need to overpay for it a bit

Help me with my math here, please.

• I've read a few sources that say that there is about $10 Trillion tied up in S&P 500 index funds.
• TSLA looks to be coming in at 1% of the S&P 500; higher if this run continues.
• 1% of $10Trillion is $100 Billion that needs to go to TSLA.
• TSLA's market cap is $254 Billion, so that's a LOT of buying that needs to happen.
EDIT: That's 40% of TSLA to be bought - with so much in Elon's and institutional hands, how does that happen?

Aren't the effects of this going to be ginormous? Wouldn't Standard and Poor's try to do something to avoid those effects?

IIRC they don't use the full market cap- just the real "float" amount- essentially they use the market cap MINUS the value of shares held by insiders like Elon (which is a pretty big chunk)

It'll still be a lot, but not as much as the full market cap suggests.

 

[Stretch2727]

Interesting. Once you leave job, how long do you need to stay retired? What if you want to take a 1 year break?

Not sure what happens if you start working again. I think I read somewhere that if you contribute to a future employer 401K you would need to stop the withdrawals to or you would need to pay penalty. It is only valid for the last 401K you contributed. This is why they recommend rolling any earlier 401K/IRA into your 401K while you are still employed.

Lot's of articles out there.

What Is the Rule of 55?

 

[azaz]

Tesla RSI right now? I have 82.90 for closing price not including after hours tho

 

[Stretch2727]

You don't have to do the whole chunk in one shot and you can spread for as many years as you like. The Roth ladder is used for people that early retire. They roll only their annual expenses every year and since they are not working their tax bill is minimal.

Interesting this would smooth out the tax bill so you stay below high marginal rates. I need to research this as almost all our savings in some from of pre-tax deferred account. Would love to have more in a ROTH type account.

 

[jackbowers]

I think 40M shares is an under-calculation by at least 50%:

• $10 Trillion is invested in S&P 500 index funds
• Tesla will come in at 1% or more of the S&P
• Therefore, $100 Billion of TSLA needs to be purchased in the 10 days when the S&P committee formally announces the inclusion until the actual inclusion.
• Tesla market cap is $254 Billion today, so $100 Billion is almost 40% of the float needs to be purchased.
• But, Elon and institutions and longs like us hold a huge percentage of shares.
• So, how can the price not sky-rocket?

There's only about $3 Trillion in S&P 500 index vehicles; the rest is active funds that are benchmarked to the S&P 500. Also you have to consider that Tesla will move out of the Extended Market Index where it has about a 4% weight, and those index funds funds will be selling it. I'm guessing the index funds will need about 10 million shares net.

 

[jareade]

Anyone else feel lately like every night is Christmas Eve and every day is Christmas? Let’s hope it continues!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Tesla RSI right now? I have 82.90 for closing price not including after hours tho

How is RSI trending right now? I know over 70 means 'overbought' but I think we are currently in a bullish trend? I admit I don't really understand RSI very well, or any technical indicator really.

 

[BlackS]

To all the non believers that Tesla can save your live with autonomous driving....here's your ultimate test:

 

[MP3Mike]

There's only about $3 Trillion in S&P 500 index vehicles; the rest is active funds that are benchmarked to the S&P 500. Also you have to consider that Tesla will move out of the Extended Market Index where it has about a 4% weight, and those index funds funds will be selling it. I'm guessing the index funds will need about 10 million shares net.

@jackbowers I show that the TSLA weight in the EMIs is only about 2.5%. And there is way less AUM in EMIs than there is for S&P 500 funds.

Do you have a source for the total AUM in EMIs?

EMI=Extended Market Index
AUM=Assets Under Management