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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Would like to retire the 15 yo Sante Fe at the end of this year and reward Tesla(and ourselves) with the purchase of a new Model Y(and some solar panels). Retirement wasn't looking so keen before, with both of us barely clearing 85k after 20 yrs in our respective 401ks. We decided to take the plunge and cleaned out the glacial 401ks and bet it all on Tesla. Liked Musk, the mission and the honesty with which he looked at problems. Risky, but if you're going to take a risk, may as well be for something you believe in. Besides there was a plan B, pensions and social security. Well, our meager 225 shares are looking PRETTY good right now at over 450% in just a year and a half.

Don't want to part with a single share, but it sure would be nice to treat ourselves for being so damned smart! :D
 
Pretty sure you are right about about that.

The good thing about the S&P 500 quarterly rebalancing is that I expect Tesla to, on average, outperform the S&P 500 by a wide margin. What this means is every quarter this is true, all the S&P 500 index funds will act like large sponges to absorb more Tesla shares into their funds. And funds that are benchmarked to the index will likely add as well.

A subtle effect, for sure. But an effect that can only be beneficial over time.
Precisely what I'm thinking. And with steadily increasing weights for TSLA in the S&P 500 comes steady buying from index Funds, and a steady contraction of the float. It's a virtuous cycle that'll play out for 5-10 years until, IMHO we see TSLA as the #1 ranked equity on the S&P 500.

Imma make the call again: TSLA will be #1 on the S&P 500 by March 2025 . That's if Tesla executes on its current plans for GF3China/GF4Berlin/GF5Texas. Other progress will be just a bonus (TEnergy, TNetwork, TAero, TMedical, Teslaquila...) :D

Cheers!
 
Tesla is not trading on fundamentals. 90K+ cars a quarter, a small GAAP profit in Q2, expansion plans underway, etc. do not alone justify this move.

Even if you consider that TSLA has been a wound spring, consolidating for the past half decade, that doesn't make $1500 a justifiable level. And I'm not just looking backwards at VW or Toyota, I'm looking forward a few years with more vehicle sales, FSD achieved, more energy storage, and more solar.

The only "fundamental" you could apply is that Tesla will achieve L5 and thus enable the Tesla Network of self-driving robo-taxis, creating huge demand for a personal vehicle that literally pays for itself and then some. That's a risky bet for most.

It seems clear, to me anyway, that the rise in TSLA share price is mostly fueled by an almost certain S&P 500 inclusion, and the anticipatory positioning being done now. Which, I think will step up on upcoming events: Earnings Call/Shareholder meeting followed by Battery Day, and then followed by an official announcement from the S&P Index Committee.

I plan on selling all my TSLA in tax-advantaged accounts between the day of announcement and day before it's effective. I may sell most/all of my very long term (since 2011) holdings in my taxable account, too, depending on how big the pop is.

I do believe that, unless the Committee makes rules changes, no matter how high TSLA is on the day of the announcement, it will rise afterward as index funds are compelled to buy. It is possible, however, that everyone that is today stocking up to sell when I plan to sell will also sell, and thus prevent a further ginormous pop, even as $46 Billion of TSLA are traded in those 5-10 days. But, that's still my current plan, subject to change of course.
Tesla is poised to grow 40-50% per year for the next decade at least while maintaining around 25% margins so the fundamentals do justify this price and more.
 
Precisely what I'm thinking. And with steadily increasing weights for TSLA in the S&P 500 comes steady buying from index Funds, and a steady contraction of the float. It's a virtuous cycle that'll play out for 5-10 years until, IMHO we see TSLA as the #1 ranked equity on the S&P 500.

Imma make the call again: TSLA will be #1 on the S&P 500 by March 2025 . That's if Tesla executes on its current plans for GF3China/GF4Berlin/GF5Texas. Other progress will be just a bonus (TEnergy, TNetwork, TAero, TMedical, Teslaquila...) :D

Cheers!
And don't forget Tesla short shorts! That item alone will take them over the top!
 
I don't think this was MM manipulation..or any other manipulation really.
I've only had a few minutes to apply good ol Alabama Boy logic to it but ...
Let's say some big ol whale company gets word of one of two things through some means that the SECo_O would frown upon. Either they "figured/found out:rolleyes:" that the S&P 500 crew had already decided on including TSLA, or that the Earnings report was done and the ink only needed to dry, and that report is going to be Epic! And they "figured out" one of those two things in the past week. Now that whale knows info is a valuable thing if taken advantage of "correctly." And the whale had the knowledge of how to execute so to maximize its profit.
If I was a whale and I knew one of those things that I stated, and I decided to buy 5,000,000 shares of TSLA I'd also be keenly aware of how me buying 5,000,000 shares would impact the share price ...So I'd have my bean counters tell me how much the stock would rise if I bought the shares on a Friday afternoon. And then I'd buy calls that would DEFINITELY be profitable. And I'd buy a bunch of em. Making money on calls wouldn't be my main play, but why not harvest all you can if you are going to make the sunshine?
And why on a Friday? Well o_O i hate the MM's so I'd love to stick it to em. But The whale he just loves swimming in money. he doesn't care about MM's. Except when it comes to making HIM more money. I figure that the Whale realized the MM's attention and willingness to sell their stock to keep the price low when he was going to buy would be greatest on a Friday Afternoon.
Sure the Whale would have loved to have one of those triple witching hours you guys have taught me about, but his info's value was time and event constrained (and no telling who else might "figure out" what he "figured out," and they might strike first, and run up the price before he could.) So the whale had to act quickly. Thursday/Friday was as quick as he could unleash his plan.
And the stock was actually reverse-manipulated by the Whale. He got the Manipulators to wear themselves out trying to keep the stock suppressed at $1380. And once it started getting away from the MM's they vainly tried to swim it back down, and the Whale just kept eating stock at a cheaper price than he would have had to pay if he'd have done the same thing earlier in the week because the MM's would have not been as focused and would have considered that they could walk the stock down the next day or overnight. Also the Whale knew other feeders were coming. That word was getting out. He needed to get done what he needed before all the other fish in the sea could ruin his feast.
No Sir.
It was not a fake manipulation of the stock like the MM's do. The movement was based on "news:)"...I mean some "figuring out:rolleyes:" of what will become news. That juggernaut of purchasing was real acknowledgement through a Whale that TSLA is something good to own.
And it could have been more than one whale..it could have been a designed-feeding like a pod of Orcas coordinating an attack on a ball of MM sardines. One group devouring another, systematically carving it to pieces.
Well at least that is what a good ol boy from Alabama has to say about what happened...:cool:

Where's the TL;DR button when you need it?

Can someone summarise? Cheers!
 
Okay, let's separate facts from hypotheses.

Facts:
1) Somebody wanted lots of TSLA shares sooner rather than later.
2) Such desire for shares is typically caused by good news.

Your hypothesis:
The good news in this case is not yet public.

Alternative hypothesis
The good news is already public, but slowly sinking into the minds of buyers.

Evidence for the alternative:
1) Tesla released their satin Short Shorts on Sunday July 5. This event was the crowning clue on a series of clues that Q2 will be profitable, which makes S&P 500 inclusion likely.
2) On Monday July 6, TSLA jumped up 13% from the previous close. Somebody figured out something.
3) TSLA then stayed fairly flat from Tuesday through Thursday, but on Wednesday a massive FUD attack was ignored and a massive short attack was instantly bought up. Clearly shorts and market makers were working hard to hold down the stock while the max pain number for Friday was firming up.
4) Some folks are slower than others. For example, I didn't get confident (with the help of this thread) about the meaning of the clues until Wednesday after hours, and I bought more shares on Thursday.
5) Whoever bought big on Friday (and presumably bought 1500 calls on Thursday) could've formulated their plan earlier in the week, based on the same clues, but planned to strike on Friday to take advantage of the market makers' maximum selling on that day.

Whichever hypothesis is correct, the implications are similar: more buying incoming. If the good news is not yet public, the buying may be more intense, but if the news is still sinking in, there will be more buying as it does.

FACT:
The Max Pain for Friday was $1380 or so. The MM's had position the stock for ending the day at max pain for the last 2 days. All the way up to 1230 PM the day was your typical selling and manipulating. And then it wasn't. An extreme increase in those willing to buy no matter how high the stock was going became present. And they stayed through the afternoon. It wasn't the "slow public" finally figuring this out. That would have showed up as a consistent slow increase in buying because the slow public was slowly learning. And instead the gates opened.
And the day before when someone just for some very UNKNOWN reason dumped more than half a million on calls for $1500? There is no doubt in such a decision.
 
The calls were just a side dish.

It's only logical that Thursday $550k option buyer is the same whale did the buying Friday. IMO, $550k option bought Thursday is not the gamble or collusion for one time quick profit as most of the people suspected. It's part of the share purchase plan executed Friday.

I also think the ~200,000 shares worth of $1500 calls were part of the plan by this entity (whale) who was acquiring shares. I don’t think the goal was to make $10,000,000 on the appreciation of the price of the calls, but rather to exercise the calls as a stealth way to add the additional shares.
 
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I know everyone is bullish but this is a but much...

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