Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Slightly off-topic, but it's a weekend. The release of this Nikola Tesla biopic is planned for next month.

Wikipedia: Tesla (2020 film) - Wikipedia

Deadline - yesterday: [WATCH] ‘Tesla’ Trailer: Ethan Hawke In Michael Almereyda’s Biopic – Deadline

Looks good! Hawke is no David Bowie, but whacha gonna do?

 

[Fobble]

lol those FUD articles will have no effect on the SP. Maybe in premarket we will see shorties trying to dig another hole for themselves. Also this picture is bullish for macros.....

View attachment 563617

I expect to see the "Make America Great Again" print on the mask ..

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I expect to see the "Make America Great Again" print on the mask ..

There was a cute Seal of the President of the United States on it at least.

 

[TespaceX]

As alluded to before, the lower center of gravity and lower weight (by nearly 400 lbs it seems) producing better handling.

Much smaller frontal area, for improved highway efficiency/range. Yes, the EPA combined range is nearly identical, but this is taking into account the added efficiency of the heat pump in cold weather testing, which is less important on long highway trips, where range actually matters, and completely unimportant when cabin heat isn't needed.

Potentially cheaper tires - smaller sizes on smaller wheels tend to be cheaper - and reduced weight reducing cost of operation.

Physically smaller, so easier to park. (Y is significantly bigger in every dimension.)

(Personally, I want something with a hatch, but don't want anything anywhere near as big as a Model S or Y.)

Those are splitting hairs looking for a reason to choose a 3 IMO.

 

[bhtooefr]

Oh, and the 3 *is* still $3k cheaper. So there is that.

I mean, there are a lot of automotive enthusiasts that want nothing to do with a CUV, it's not "splitting hairs" to pick the sedan over the CUV to avoid the taller, less efficient (it is less efficient except in cold weather) CUV.

 

[ZeApelido]

No way you could guess how TSLAQ on Twitter is responding to the Model Y price reduction...

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

This type of thing is notoriously difficult for anyone to predict, and especially this far in advance since the macro climate at the time of addition will have quite an impact. Having said that, even with the assumption there is substantial front-running already happening, I expect the price to rise after announcement of S&P 500 inclusion and to fall right before inclusion and going forward after that. Perhaps by quite a bit.

Interesting. What would you project the Rise and fall to be to? (Ie rise to $2800 pre-inclusion and fall to $1500 post)

 

[astrotoy]

Does S&P work both ways? If the market tanks and people are dumping their S&P funds, will they have to sell TSLA? Or in that case would TSLA go down anyway whether they were in S&P or not?

If a fund has more withdrawals than deposits, they will have to liquidate some of their holdings to pay for the withdrawals if they don't have enough cash on hand. If they are an index fund, then they would have to sell some proportion of their holdings to keep them tracking the index. How that would affect the price of TSLA or any other stock depends on what is happening overall.

 

[EV forever]

I expect to see the "Make America Great Again" print on the mask ..

 

[lafrisbee]

So the $3000 price cut on the Model Y. Either Tesla is making some embarrassing to report percentage profit on the Y, or?

 

[Artful Dodger]

So the $3000 price cut on the Model Y. Either Tesla is making some embarrassing to report percentage profit on the Y, or?

... or, Toyota just sold 9% fewer RAV4's this quarter, and Audi sold 12% fewer Q3's (again).

This price cut, paid for in full by Tesla's ever decreasing COGS, is the real SQUEEZE that's coming in 2020H2. This is a sales squeeze which will see some Auto Majors sent down to the Minor leagues.

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

Normally, yes. But funds forced to buy due to the S&P 500 inclusion, especially index funds, are completely price inelastic. If TSLA goes to $100,000, they will still be buying. They will literally be forced to buy at any price.

So I'm no longer the most bullish with a prediction of $10k?...

 

[PeterJA]

So I'm no longer the most bullish with a prediction of $10k?...

You haven't been since last December. @FrankSG's bull case of over $100k/share is based on a detailed model.
My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential

 

[Buckminster]

IMO Tesla's most hotly anticipated events of all time:

1. M3 reveal
2. S&P 500 inclusion
3. Battery Day

Incredible that 2 and 3 could be just weeks apart.

 

[FrankSG]

So I'm no longer the most bullish with a prediction of $10k?...

Index funds have no price targets

But no, my 2030 price target is probably ~$25k. I'm ~80-90% confident it'll be between $8k and $60k.

Does this make me the bull version of Adam Jonas?

I might have to up that lower $8k barrier soon, because that's if Tesla does not solve autonomy, which is looking less and less likely by the day.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Normally, yes. But funds forced to buy due to the S&P 500 inclusion, especially index funds, are completely price inelastic. If TSLA goes to $100,000, they will still be buying. They will literally be forced to buy at any price.

So then youd think the inclusion would happen quickly after earnings. Unless there is a bear attack planned before inclusion hoping for a better price... something we dont know yet.

 

[LN1_Casey]

IMO Tesla's most hotly anticipated events of all time:

1. M3 reveal
2. S&P 500 inclusion
3. Battery Day

Incredible that 2 and 3 could be just weeks apart.

I think the Cybertruck hype should replace the S&P 500; more people are aware of, and cared about, the truck's reveal. I mean, us investors really, *really* care, but average Joe Smoe?

For both the M3 and Battery day, it affects more than just the investors.

 

[Mo City]

IMO Tesla's most hotly anticipated events of all time:

1. M3 reveal
2. S&P 500 inclusion
3. Battery Day

Incredible that 2 and 3 could be just weeks apart.

IMO, Battery Day should be ranked ahead of S&P500 inclusion. The S&P thing gets a bit too much discussion. Battery Day now seems like it's in the shadow of S&P inclusion and some feel there are no surprises left. IMO, Battery Day will rock the world!

One more thing: If autonomy is solved or if AP dramatically improves enough by EOY to prove L5 will happen, it would rank #2 behind the Model 3 reveal. Autonomy will instantly consume 99% of the oxygen in the room if/when skeptics (like me) turn into believers. It would double or triple TSLA in the short and long term.

 

[Mo City]

Index funds have no price targets

But no, my 2030 price target is probably ~$25k. I'm ~80-90% confident it'll be between $8k and $60k.

Does this make me the bull version of Adam Jonas?

I might have to up that lower $8k barrier soon, because that's if Tesla does not solve autonomy, which is looking less and less likely by the day.

Even if Tesla does not solve autonomy, $8K is quite achievable long term as long as no one else solves it.

 

[Mo City]

Dare me say the D word? 100 million times?
That someone please place the buy order on Monday...

Checked #TSLAQ again, seems their entire bear case had reduced to accounting fraud.
In this sense, the unicorn guy is one the brighter ones of the bunch...

The problem with TSLAQ folks and other skeptics is they assume Tesla's product line will be static going forward. That is a grave mistake. They also don't account for cost reductions that Tesla will weaponize as demand levers.