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Model S3XY now can all charge at 250kw on V3
Could this mean they have started production on their new battery type? Maybe they used the Fremont pilot cell production line to accumulate enough batteries for S and X. I don’t think they could achieve 250 kW with the current 18650 cells.

I think it would be typical for Elon to announce on Battery Day that every S and X produced this quarter already have the new batteries.
 
Those are splitting hairs looking for a reason to choose a 3 IMO.

I feel lucky to have bought the 3 last year. If I were buying now, it would be pretty hard not to buy the Y. You know, family, cargo, blah, blah, blah... same reason everyone wants a CUV.

But I'm convinced I enjoy driving the M3P more than I'd enjoy driving a CUV! Timing is everything. :)

Still would like to ditch the minivan in favor of an X for the "family car" -- a much easier proposition with the way the chairs have gone in the last few months. But, since we're barely driving the minivan right now and I'd still like to see what they do with the X around battery day and the plaid release... the wait continues.
 
I feel lucky to have bought the 3 last year. If I were buying now, it would be pretty hard not to buy the Y. You know, family, cargo, blah, blah, blah... same reason everyone wants a CUV.

But I'm convinced I enjoy driving the M3P more than I'd enjoy driving a CUV! Timing is everything. :)

Still would like to ditch the minivan in favor of an X for the "family car" -- a much easier proposition with the way the chairs have gone in the last few months. But, since we're barely driving the minivan right now and I'd still like to see what they do with the X around battery day and the plaid release... the wait continues.

Pondering if I should buy a Y instead of a Roadster 2...

:rolleyes:

Err... Nope.
 
Has there been any recent updates on production volumes for the Y? last I heard they were putting up another tent. If that's finished then production costs may be dropping.

Here is a statement from Elon during the Q1 Earnings call:
"But for a five-seater Model Y, we expect marginal costs of that car to be comparable to the Model 3 once we have reached say, 10,000 or 20,000 units or something like that"

I am assuming Elon meant 10,000 - 20,000 units per month and they may be at that point already. So it is a good possibility that the cost of the Model Y is comparable to Model 3.
 
This is true to the extent that Jeff Dahn's team has probably completed all R&D for Battery Day, and is now doing early work on the next generation..

What that products that R&D will enable, and when they will be available is hard to determine..

It looks like Battery Day will be a step change in the price and capabilities of batteries, but that isn't the end, merely a good start....

Seems like another 20 years of significant improvements in battery tech is possible, it is hard to imagine all those promising R&D leads going nowhere.. but rapid on going change is probably the wrong expectation... getting just a bit better every year for 20 years is a reasonable expectation.

You're right that even with the greatest stretch of imagination this "3650 miles battery" announcement in the near future is pure fantasy. However, there is still a good chance that something fundamentally new is coming sooner than we expect.

Why they dropped "cell building" from Giga Berlin drawings? Certainly not because of saving money. It's entirely possible that Tesla has learnt a completely new way to produce huge amounts of cells&packs. Maybe related to getting rid of coating&drying process or new easier materials as mentioned in the video linked by Curt. I'm not saying the Berlin construction plans definitely changed because of some battery manufacturing breakthroughs, but it's quite possible IMO. We'll likely get to know in September.

BTW. If someone has better information about Berlin cell supply plans please share.
 
I think to start selling far out of the money covered calls after battery day and S&P500 inclusion. This is under the assumption that the volatility will be lower after these events have played out. If my shares get called away, it means my total net worth will have increased, so no regrets. Alternatively, taking the loss on the covered calls and move them up, and hoping the profit from when they expire worthless is more then when I have to take the loss. Ideally this should provide me with some money for living expenses, while keep roughly the same exposure.

Top strikes are $2850, which is too low for me, would like to see some $4000's offered
 
Top strikes are $2850, which is too low for me, would like to see some $4000's offered
At the moment, indeed. But I’m talking about the period after battery day and S&P500 addition. The clash between the index funds buying Tesla and the shorts will probably substantially wipe out TSLAQ. So after this storm has passed, we’ll see what the stock price is. Probably meaningfully higher than now. From then on, I expect the price to be driven by how well Tesla executes it’s plans. The almost 10-fold increase over the last year was IMO mainly driven by the realisation of the general public how well Tesla is doing, and that’s something that only happens once.
 
I respect your understanding of the market, but I can't see how what you said happened. Could you help me?

I am spending so much time keeping this in the forefront because I feel it is extremely telling and has already changed the game.

First, I am not sure it was "collusion." It is just that from what I have learned from this thread, is that often there is often collusion by one set against another. I am not suggesting the collusion was illegal, and not even whether the FACT was discovered/figured out/given/acquired in an illegal manner. I don't care. I just fel as though some more good is coming because of what happened.
I do believe that so much money was dumped in such an irrational manner that there was a level of desperation to get a certain amount of stock bought before something else changed (like another sector of buyers found out the "FACT," and raised the price even higher.).
And the behavior was such that it feels the impetus is a FACT, not a guess, not a belief...a fact. Something beyond reproach that was going to force all those involved to buy. Like an overwhelmingly good Profit Report, or the voting for inclusion in the S&P 500.
I think when the price broke away from the ability of the MM to suppress it the big Buyer(s) would have backed off, and judiciously purchased at a less dynamic point in time if the fact wasn't likely to reach other buyers soon. I am not saying it would be released to the public, just that other groups of buyers might have access through their networks soon.
So no, something forced the Buyer to keep running the price up AFTER the MM's had been destroyed. They needed those stocks so bad they went ahead and drove it up and kept buying. They needed them to the point that price wasn't the barrier. And the purchase of the HUGE block of calls the day before has me believing the (block of) Buyers developed the plan of "just keep buying till we have the number we need before the news spreads to other segments that will buy once they know it too. Not that it will be released to the public very soon, just "known" to other purchasing segments of the market regardless of how it disseminates.
AND there was nothing out there that caused this sudden movement of a quiet morning where it had been accepted since the middle of the week that the MM's were going to keep the price between $1380-$1400 to cause Max pain. And then the lid was blown off. It didn't matter, a certain number of stocks were going to be bought. And the day before a huge block ($550k worth) were bought just the day before because the buyer(s) knew they were going to have to buy so much it would definitely raise the price over $1500, which was going to be an increase of around $120 over where the MM's would try to keep it. This action shows it was NOT Robinhood retail investing type of purchases. It was someone that has been successfully playing the game for a long time.
And ya know what
I am spending so much time keeping this in the forefront because I feel it is extremely telling, and has already changed the game. First it has at the very least given the MM's a concussion, if not weakened it to the point it can't effectively manipulate TSLA like it has. Or perhaps convinced the MM's to go play somewhere else. And that would be great. Not likely, but such a strong loss by the MM's warmed all our hearts at the possibility... almost as much as the nice bump to the SP.
Secondly is the FACT that one powerful entity within the market is aware of a FACT, and we are not. Most of us "know" that Q2 has been profitable, and that S&P 500 inclusion is almost certain. But we do not have a cold hard document of the Profits, nor the inclusion. We are just riding along, doing our HODL or our little options' stuff. I feel that the behavior demonstrated in this BULL Raid shows how solid the information was, how big a fact it is, and how the information will have a huge impact on the stock price as soon as it is released to the public.
And that means good things are definitely coming.
HODL with a smile.

Dude, put a carriage-return between your paragraphs...
 
My favorite part of the article:
"Like Warren Buffett, Wertheim believes firmly in doubling down when his high-conviction picks go against him. He says that if you put your faith in a company’s intellectual property, it doesn’t matter too much if the market goes south for a bit—the product, he believes, has lasting value.

“If you like something at $13 a share, you should like it at $12, $11 or $10 a share,” Wertheim says. “If a stock continues to go down, and you believe in it and did your research, then you buy more. You are actually getting a better deal.”
 
Are you guys still comfortable buying in the 1500 range? I currently have 12 shares, still have some money left to buy 3 more shares, but i’m having doubts perhaps i should wait for a dip, marketcrash? Just to buy more shares than i can buy right now. I know we got good things to come but still.. like to hear others opinions thnx.

The age old question. We could run up to $2500, then see a fall back to $1800 and you don't get the chance to get in at this price, or it might fall back to $1400 next week!

If you're planning to invest for the long term, I'd most likely just get in now, but there's no right or wrong answer.
 
Are you guys still comfortable buying in the 1500 range? I currently have 12 shares, still have some money left to buy 3 more shares, but i’m having doubts perhaps i should wait for a dip, marketcrash? Just to buy more shares than i can buy right now. I know we got good things to come but still.. like to hear others opinions thnx.

Decent chance of a dip or market crash. Lots of virus around the USA, people saying the recovery is stalling, and etc.

On the other hand, decent chance TSLA just goes up from here. People seem to be pouring money into the market while the rest of the economy is in the crapper -- it's the one place still growing like crazy -- and TSLA is among the frontrunners of that as everyone wants the hot ticket.

So I guess ask yourself what's worse? You buy now and miss a dip to $1000, then look back in a year or two when it's at $3000 and wish you had eked out more than a 2x return. Or, you wait for a dip that never comes, and never want to buy in again since it's a way worse opportunity than you had right now, and look back in a year or two when it's $3000 and you missed that boat. Maybe early trading on Monday will give a clue.

Or, who knows, Elon gets hit by a bus and you put the cash into Nikola and Nio instead. The future, so hard to predict. :)
 
Model S3XY now can all charge at 250kw on V3
I'm minded to think that might be a mistake on the S+X web pages. They only just changed them to 225kW. Would they then change the cars to 250kW just about a month later? No-one has reported 250kW anywhere (owners or media). On the other hand, maybe @kengchang just had an amazing scoop!
 
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