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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Hi TT. I've been a long-time supporter of your posts and am super-happy for your gains, but posts like this put you in a bad light.
People are sceptical because you flip-flop a lot on your outlook for the Tesla SP, but you never actually back that up with any substance.
How about you tell us a bit more about your positions over time and thought processes - would do wonders for your credibility.
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Earnings/S&P addition overshoot will definitely be followed by a drop/correction - market action/reaction.
However, long term trend will remain (Fundamentals)... cheers!!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You don't have a cat yet?
I have two cats (one pictured to the left), my wife has two dogs.
We manage.
I found this part to be even more interesting:
He recently doubled down on British energy giant BP and now owns over one million shares. But rather than dwell on its sagging, crude-dependent stock chart, he’s betting on its hydrogen fuel cells and enjoying its 6% dividend yield while he waits for the company to recover.
“They have important intellectual property in that area,” he says of the cells, which create electricity by using hydrogen as fuel, a technology Wertheim believes is the future of both air and road transportation. “We’re going to move to a hydrogen economy.”
I think he may be wrong about this!
I was looking at some Polestar 2 video's. Looks great -- a worthy competitor to Model 3 Long Range. I was also looking at the site to see the specifications and try to compare them to the Model 3. The only thing I would choose the Polestar over the Model 3 is that the Polestar has a heated steering wheel.
Looking over the specs of Tesla it occurred to me that a lot of things were not mentioned. Specs that would make someone choose a Model 3. For instance there is no mention in the specs about Sentry Mode or Dashcam recording. I think it is worth mentioning it in the specs. When people are comparing the two cars it could pull some potential buyers to Tesla in stead of Polestar
I also looked at the price. What I found is that here in Canada the price difference between the two cars is quite significant. The Polestar 2 is CAD 10,000 more expensive than the Tesla M3 Long Range (Polestar does offer a 0.9% financing rate though). On the Dutch site the two cars are only about EUR1,000 apart. I wonder why, both car need to be imported and are both subject to 10% import tax in Europe.
Looking over the specs of Tesla it occurred to me that a lot of things were not mentioned. Specs that would make someone choose a Model 3. For instance there is no mention in the specs about Sentry Mode or Dashcam recording. I think it is worth mentioning it in the specs. When people are comparing the two cars it could pull some potential buyers to Tesla in stead of Polestar
I also looked at the price. What I found is that here in Canada the price difference between the two cars is quite significant. The Polestar 2 is CAD 10,000 more expensive than the Tesla M3 Long Range (Polestar does offer a 0.9% financing rate though). On the Dutch site the two cars are only about EUR1,000 apart. I wonder why, both car need to be imported and are both subject to 10% import tax in Europe.
I think TT is a successful short term trader using high margins. I think to trade this way you need to change your thinking and positions a lot to try to time market highs to protect your high profits on any run up.
To a buy and hold trader he might seem to change his views week to week but to a short term trader it makes sense.
I trade this way too and I have been very, very successful as my edge comes from only being long on Tesla.
Brokerage firms tell us about 90 per cent of short term traders loose money, but the 1 percent of the winning short term traders can be very successful.
To a buy and hold trader he might seem to change his views week to week but to a short term trader it makes sense.
I trade this way too and I have been very, very successful as my edge comes from only being long on Tesla.
Brokerage firms tell us about 90 per cent of short term traders loose money, but the 1 percent of the winning short term traders can be very successful.
FYI: Alameda County was placed on California's county watch list for COVID-19 transmission as of today, 7/12. No impact to the Fremont factory as of now, and no intimation that workplaces such as the Fremont factory are under consideration for closure, but this is definitely a space to watch very closely for those that would be more heavily impacted by short term price movements and/or are looking for a buying opportunity.
http://www.acphd.org/media/591931/press-release-2020.07.12.pdf
http://www.acphd.org/media/591931/press-release-2020.07.12.pdf
I live in Alameda County and some cities are pushing back with this order. Maybe they got some balls watching Elon do it to the County back in May? No way Elon allows another shutdown to the factory.
5 Cities Push Back After Alameda County Suspends Outdoor Dining
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If you have all this money you keep talking about, what the heck are you doing hanging around on this thread anyway? Are you here just to brag? That's all you seem to do in your posts and if that's the case, I'd prefer you take it elsewhere.
Ameliorate
Member
I've been here a while, I don't think those figures make you the largest investor around here, in fact I know a few dealing in larger numbers and I'm sure there are many I don't know about. It's just not wise to disclose your net worth for your own safety. Don't want to see anyone hacked, robbed or worse. I personally have never understood why anybody needs tens of millions but it was commendable investing in Tesla through all the tough times to help the transition to EV's. Still a long ways to go but likely the company will do just fine from here on out. If Tesla puts me in that position of having more than I need, well..I think it will be rather character defining to see what is done with all this newfound wealth. If you do come across this problem now you have more influence to do good in the world, be like Elon, there's more to life than the # in your account.
Obviously explaining why you believe the stock will move certain ways would provide more value than "It's going to 4,000 because I make *!&*%loads more than you do". Do you owe us an explanation or any of your thought process? No, certainly not. I do assume you've used research that required a lot of work and life experience from others on this forum provided for free. That's kind of what makes this a great community, the wealth of knowledge and everybody having different backgrounds. Share, don't share, I don't care. But you're literally asking for attention so expect the negative along with the, no offense but somewhat naive cheerleaders. Don't let someone else think for you, take control of your own portfolio and be responsible for the gains and losses. Use info from many sources and use it to the best of your ability. GLTA. No point in squabbling, we're here to help each other right? Things are good, our research is paying huge dividends. Maybe our planet has a chance yet, I hope.
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Yes, the first million is the hardest. Even though he was a buy and hold investor before making millions in business, those millions probably made it a lot easier to buy/hold. At least it does for most people. The reason is that you already have "enough" and are not so afraid to lose some on a bet here or there. And that's why I advise people to disassociate from their money and to not think of stocks as being money. And to figure out how to live fulfilling lives without spending a lot. A need to constantly spend money makes money seem scarce and that is not a winning mindset. You want a mindset that you already have more than you need.
And since there are a lot of people here coming into more money than they need, may I suggest being thoughtful and not going crazy with it? The size of our carbon footprints correspond frighteningly closely to how much we spend. So use it wisely!
It's amazing how stealthily they were able to bring that Chinese construction crew in...
There are a number of people on this thread that have made considerable amounts of money with Tesla/TSLA and share their thoughts on trading strategy, and pertinent information we come across to share with others/discuss/debate without the vitriol that others seem to put out and bring out in others.
I agree with others who have pointed out that many of us change our investment strategies from time to time but when we do it is best to indicate the information that made us reverse/change investing course. If we don't we come off as having less credibility despite our having been successful (if we define success by who has the biggest gains/bank account). Helping others have this success is why many come here. Sharing what has worked for us in the past and what we plan to do in the future and why we suddenly change that strategy.
Personally, I do not feel the size of one's gains/bank account is the definition of success.
Yes, there are people that come here to spread FUD or just troll and they seem to go away if ignored and if not, we have the 'ignore' feature.
I am happy for you that you have achieved your level of success.
Good luck to them! Unlike a factory, all those businesses are high-random interaction environments. Every day the employees and customers will be interacting with different people, some of which are bound to be a-symptomatic virus carriers. There almost no traceability from virus spreads in environments like that. I feel for them, but they'll have a tough time convincing anyone that they can open "safely".
smorgasbord
Active Member
I generally agree.
July 22: Earnings reported. Confirmation of GAAP profit will increase S&P 500 addition positioning starting in After Hours.
Sept 15: Battery Day. My expectation is that just as Tesla described the details of the FSD chip (HW3) on that day AND announced that it was already in cars produced weeks earlier, Tesla will continue to avoid Osbourning and whatever battery tech they announce will already be in cars produced weeks earlier.
S&P 500 Announcement. I'm expecting this in Sept. The S&P 500 Index Committee does a "reconstitution" typically every quarter, but they skipped March 2020 and then just did one last month (June). CNBC Quadruple Witching. The next such event is scheduled to take effect after market close on Sept 18, 2020 (S&P Calendar spreadsheet). I'm guessing that the Committee might want to combine these two events into one, since both will have a large effect on the weightings of stocks in the index and they wouldn't want to have two such events close to one another.
Looking at S&P search for "join S&P 500", there are about 5-6 actual (not business) days from official press release announcement until additions take effect. So, that makes a likely S&P announcement for inclusion of Tesla around Sept 12-13. Which is before Shareholder Meeting/Battery Day.
EDIT: Lessmog pointed out that Shareholder Mtg/Battery Day is actually Sept 22. That changes my stock trading ideas, as S&P 500 inclusion and effect should be already baked in by then. Could be we get the rush on announcement for 5 days, then down after inclusion, and then up again on all the cool tech from Battery Day. Hmm.
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My Daily TSLA Trading Charts post coming this evening (Hawaii time). Lots of ground to cover and lots of positive things in my life this weekend keeping me away from the computer.
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