Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

I think that Elon is very disappointed with the other automobile companies and has decided to put the screws to them while accelerating the transition. Why else would he be building 2 factories at the same time and have plans for at least 3 more in the works.

Each price reduction makes it that much harder for any other manufacturer to create viable competition, without taking the path of total commitment. I think he would actually keep prices higher if others were doing their part and getting the whole industry to stop with the Tesla bashing and get on board the zero emissions path.

It sounded like he initially wanted to spark a change to EV's in other OEMs, however during the last decade he realised a market failure where entrenched interests are inhibiting what would be a natural technological change in the industry - so the only certain solution to "accelerate the transition to sustainable transport" is to grow Tesla as fast as possible. It's a kodak/blackberry moment all over again.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I'm concerned with how bearish you have become. Why limit it to "terrestrial" transportation. /s

If Tesla went further than that they would have to compete with Elon Musk. They're not that stupid.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Frankfurt 1434, ~ $1620.

Looks good to me.

Edit: lol, everyone is off hunting the German exchange this morning.

 

[chrsk]

1630

 

[Quesder]

yeah.... I haven't prepared my cash (i.e., sell MSFT) to buy TSLA yet. Tomorrow morning hopefully still have chance to buy at $1544-ish price.

EDIT: and NIO goes up too. 14.15 eur

This is crazy... never had so many members watching Frankfurt PREMARKET Live before.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lol, my annual house taxes are now less than a single share of TSLA. Not selling: Taxes long since paid in cash.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

If Tesla went further than that they would have to compete with Elon Musk. They're not that stupid.

Elon has ALREADY declared that Cybertruck will be the Official Mars Rover for SpaceX. It's natural synergy. More Tesla's will be launching into space than just Elon's midnight cherry Roadster.

Pressurized Tesla Cybertruck To Be Official Pickup Truck Of Mars

Cheers!

 

[Runarbt]

This is crazy... never had so many members watching Frankfurt PREMARKET Live before.

And never before have Tsla at Frankfurt done anything else than mirror Nasdaq.

Id say this mean Glory and insanity on Nasdaq later on this week.

Was dreaming of 2000 by friday.. but might even see 2500+ efore ER

Edit: Fck. I have two $1500 august calls.. (had 6x 1400july which I rolled.). Wanted to hold until end of july, but If sp soar past 2k... ?
Should I stay or should I go? Gamble $250k (mighte be wortht this) on that we will kill ER and dont have a sell the news incident.. I do believe.. but $250k is a lot of quick money.

 

[Causalien]

1630

Lol sooo wrecked

 

[Runarbt]

Prediction : the stock will not close in the 1500s tomorrow. either 14xx or 16xx

Predictions are hard, especially about the future.
- Yogi Berra

I see your prediction and raise, 17xx

 

[engle]

Official real-time link for Tesla Stock Price on Frankfurt Exchange

Just traded at 1,420 EUR ($1,608.10 USD)

(I hope it doesn't get too crazy tomorrow since I plan to sell a bunch of TSLA in a taxable IRA and buy the same quantity in a tax-free Roth by swapping out the REITs and drug stocks in the Roth. This legally avoids Roth IRA conversion taxes.)

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Official real-time link for Tesla Stock Price on Frankfurt Exchange

Just traded at 1,420 EUR ($1,608.10 USD)

(I hope it doesn't get too crazy tomorrow since I plan to sell a bunch of TSLA in a taxable IRA and buy the same quantity in a tax-free Roth by swapping out the REITs and drug stocks in the Roth. This legally avoids Roth IRA conversion taxes.)

At this rate of the after hours climb - you might want to buy before you sell

 

[Buckminster]

I generally agree.

July 22: Earnings reported. Confirmation of GAAP profit will increase S&P 500 addition positioning starting in After Hours.

Sept 15: Battery Day. My expectation is that just as Tesla described the details of the FSD chip (HW3) on that day AND announced that it was already in cars produced weeks earlier, Tesla will continue to avoid Osbourning and whatever battery tech they announce will already be in cars produced weeks earlier.

S&P 500 Announcement. I'm expecting this in Sept. The S&P 500 Index Committee does a "reconstitution" typically every quarter, but they skipped March 2020 and then just did one last month (June). CNBC Quadruple Witching. The next such event is scheduled to take effect after market close on Sept 18, 2020 (S&P Calendar spreadsheet). I'm guessing that the Committee might want to combine these two events into one, since both will have a large effect on the weightings of stocks in the index and they wouldn't want to have two such events close to one another.

Looking at S&P search for "join S&P 500", there are about 5-6 actual (not business) days from official press release announcement until additions take effect. So, that makes a likely S&P announcement for inclusion of Tesla around Sept 12-13. Which is before Shareholder Meeting/Battery Day.

EDIT: Lessmog pointed out that Shareholder Mtg/Battery Day is actually Sept 22. That changes my stock trading ideas, as S&P 500 inclusion and effect should be already baked in by then. Could be we get the rush on announcement for 5 days, then down after inclusion, and then up again on all the cool tech from Battery Day. Hmm.

How certain are these dates?

ETFs get advised that they need to buy TSLA on the 12th or 13th Sep
Announced 18 Sep - deadline for purchasing shares?

We might see 100k/share tomorrow. It is possible. If you don’t agree, explain how it’s not.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Frankfurt 1434, ~ $1620.

Looks good to me.

Edit: lol, everyone is off hunting the German exchange this morning.

Walkdown attempt after Frankfurt opened. Signifcant support at around 1.413,50 EUR (which is $1,600 USD).

You can tell which side's up early in NYC... gonna be a long day 4 da bears.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

How certain are these dates?

Not certain at all. The OP conflates the date for quarterly weighting adjustment for the S&P 500 with the Committee's decision timetable for announcing new components.

If you do a little googling, you'll see it's quite common for new components to be added to the S&P 500 at other times.

My personal opinion is the S&P Committee will want to act as soon as their internal rules allow them to. To do otherwise means that TSLA will continue to climb in the weightings, which will be even more disruptive than making a quick announcement.

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Oh noes!!!

Wait, that’s Frankfurt.

So in EUR... which is... $1615

 

[EVMeister]

Nice price.

 

[Sancho]

Everyone’s decision whether and when to sell any of their TSLA position is uniquely based on personal circumstances.

But it would be helpful to keep in mind a reasonable fair value of TSLA, because it is quite possible for the market to assign an unreasonably high valuation, just as it assigned an unreasonably low valuation not that long ago.

Even for a future trillion plus company, Tesla is so far from justifying that on current earnings, that a steep discount needs to be applied. A quarter of a trillion now seems very rich. Half a trillion seems to me obviously too rich. So I’d say anything over $2000 is unreasonably high.

I’m not predicting how high the SP is going to go now, but I am predicting that if it goes over $2000, it will correct below $2000 as soon as the fever breaks.

 

[generalenthu]

1592 in the premarket stateside.

 

[WarpedOne]

But it would be helpful to keep in mind a reasonable fair value of TSLA, because it is quite possible for the market to assign an unreasonably high valuation, just as it assigned an unreasonably low valuation not that long ago.

There is no such thing as a reasonable fair value. Everyone and his brother has a different one.

I decided to stick with opinions of those the most in the know - the board that approved Elons performance award.
They saw 650B market cap as something worth targeting for.
Who Am I to object to their views and goals, describing it as unreasonable, unfair, etc?
As long as they do not create a different award with higher/lower market cap that 650B is my anchor number to judge how much room is there left to run in the next 5 years or so.
TSLA is still multiples away from it.

And I fully expect this 650B will be fulfilled much sooner than deadline (2028).

Tesla Announces New Long-Term Performance Award for Elon Musk | Tesla, Inc.