Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

 

[kengchang]

This is how S/X got to 250kw charging

 

[Carl Raymond]

My disagree is because the forecast half of that chart is baloney. It’ll be racing up the S Curve.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We all know Bloomberg's MO with these projections. If the over/under we're double each if these, I'd be inclined to take the over.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Whoa. So basically Elon just said "yeah I don't care if we are using 35% more cells per car on this insane volume product". This tells me all battery bottle necks solved for infinite demand going forward.

It also tells us that the Model 3/Y will NOT be getting the new 'MaxCells' from Fremont Kato Rd. If it was, then an Model Y SR would have about 250*0.9*1.2 = 270 miles range.

Kato Rd bty output is going into the Plaid S/X. Remains to be seen what the Semi will get, but I expect GF1/2170s until we hear otherwise. Cybertruck? Well, that's certainly possible for the new bty tech, especially w. 500+ mi rge on the 3-mtr variant and a year+ away.

Cheers!

 

[FrankSG]

Some sort of currency/payment system seems quite likely if Tesla solves full autonomy. Full autonomy will allow them to at least gain huge market share in the mobility as a service market, perhaps completely dominate it. The amount of money that will flow through the Tesla Network ecosystem is absurd, and should give Tesla a gateway into launching its own payment/bank/financial services something.

I believe somebody asked if the autopilot chips could be used as AWS data centers during either the autonomy day or the shareholder's meeting last year. Elon didn't seem to be too interested, but said there "could perhaps be some sort of angle there". This might also be pretty difficult, because with FSD there will likely be very high utilization of Tesla's vehicles and its hardware chips, which is also why I don't think V2G will be that big long term, and only interesting until full autonomy is here. Autobidder does seem great, but more so for distributed powerwalls, powerpacks, and megapacks.

I doubt they'll compete with Amazon's actual website and selling of goods any time soon, if ever, but for sure Tesla is on track to be the king of all forms of mobility over roads, perhaps also many other forms of terrestrial transportation.

I just realised another place where autobidder / a distributed energy grid could be a big deal.

Superchargers!

As Tesla builds out more superchargers with solar panels and battery storage and connects these to the grid, they all become like mini Hornsdale Power Reserves.

Superchargers could be the peaker plants of the future!

 

[ZeApelido]

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[lazybot]

Whoa. So basically Elon just said "yeah I don't care if we are using 35% more cells per car on this insane volume product". This tells me all battery bottle necks solved for infinite demand going forward.

I think what it means is that there probably won't be a sub $40K variant of Model Y. The cheapest version of Model Y will be the LR RWD version around 45K and may be a partial premium version that is slightly cheaper at some point in the future.

 

[printf42]

We might see 100k/share tomorrow. It is possible. If you don’t agree, explain how it’s not.

You mean privatization is already done and those call selling MMs are completely F***ed?
No wonder why Elon so desperately needed cash that he sold houses right before having a new born.
/s

 

[dakh]

I looked up what the current price on Model Y is vs. what I locked when I reserved it -- AWD with white interior and FSD. A month ago it would save me AFAIR $2.5K to use my configured reservation vs. creating a new order. Now it is $500. I looked it up because they've added a tow hitch option, but it wasn't possible to add it later without resetting the price. Now it almost breaks even.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Does anybody know the production capacity of the polestar 2? I spent about an hour trying to find it but couldnt find any article that stated it. The only info I could find is that the polestar 1 production rate was less than 500 per year.

Considering that it's so hard to find a production rate for the polestar 2, I have to assume that, even though it currently seems like the closest thing to a somewhat competitive tesla competitor, the production ramp of it would be very slow.

I'm pages behind reading, you might have had much better replies. My understanding is that Polestar 2 started off as a Volvo and is based on a current model to some degree just the designers / management didn't feel like it was a Volvo so rebranded it, also avoiding "fake grill" disease.

My guess is that this means it's much higher volume than 500/year. But that's not much of a guess. My googling failed to find an answer, so my second guess is that production will not be huge initially. If it is a success, it might scale. Volvo sales in China in 2019 seem to be around 130,000 in total. Might be wrong. Not sure about production.

 

[UkNorthampton]

We might see 100k/share tomorrow. It is possible. If you don’t agree, explain how it’s not.

Just after I've bought some more please (assuming you have some control over the price).

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Here's some info about the Y changes...

Tesla Won't Produce Model Y Standard Range, But Will Add Model Y RWD

Perhaps the most notable tweet was one stating that Tesla had decided to not produce the Tesla Model Y Standard Range (or Standard Range Plus), as Elon Musk considered the range to be “unacceptably low” if they did

Tesla is testing the range of the Model Y Long Range RWD at the moment and Musk says it will be well above 300 miles (EPA).

Basically it sounds like the SR version has been canceled due to unacceptable range and a new RWD variant of the current Y will be made instead.

 

[Singuy]

Here's some info about the Y changes...

Tesla Won't Produce Model Y Standard Range, But Will Add Model Y RWD

Perhaps the most notable tweet was one stating that Tesla had decided to not produce the Tesla Model Y Standard Range (or Standard Range Plus), as Elon Musk considered the range to be “unacceptably low” if they did

Tesla is testing the range of the Model Y Long Range RWD at the moment and Musk says it will be well above 300 miles (EPA).

Basically it sounds like the SR version has been canceled due to unacceptable range and a new RWD variant of the current Y will be made instead.

See I don't believe it. The SR+ of the Y will have a similar range as the 3 SR+, which is their best selling car. So he knows that the public accepts the SR+ with flying colors. And he knows a SR+ Y will sell like hot cakes. Also for your mission sake, you would want MORE cars on the road to off set ICE, which means if there are only 150 cells to work with, it's better to make 3 cars out of the 150 cells than to make 2 for the mission (and profitability) sake. Remember that Tesla's bread and butter is not the printer(car) but the ink (FSD). When given the choice, you always want more and more cars in people's hand(hence price reduction every chance he gets). This is how Tesla can later extrapolate revenue from software/services using the electric car platform. Many companies are known to run razor thin(or negative margins) to establish the platform via marketshare like consoles or operating systems(wasn't original Windows 95 free with every computer?)

But when you take the cell limitation away, then you no longer need to play these games. Just make whatever the F you want because you don't have to make decisions based on limited cells like before. Which also means Model Y is possible at SR+ prices but with full range packs eventually in the future. Kind of like how the S/X are at 75kwh prices with the 100kwh battery.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Casgains Academy - today:

I've just realised that this would allow a drive across the USA with no recharging. Perhaps this is another reason why Elon now says again that they may do coast to coast.

 

[PeterJA]

Useful reminder of who else thinks TSLA is headed up:

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Prediction : the stock will not close in the 1500s tomorrow. either 14xx or 16xx

Predictions are hard, especially about the future.
- Yogi Berra

 

[UkNorthampton]

Some sort of currency/payment system seems quite likely if Tesla solves full autonomy. Full autonomy will allow them to at least gain huge market share in the mobility as a service market, perhaps completely dominate it. The amount of money that will flow through the Tesla Network ecosystem is absurd, and should give Tesla a gateway into launching its own payment/bank/financial services something.

I believe somebody asked if the autopilot chips could be used as AWS data centers during either the autonomy day or the shareholder's meeting last year. Elon didn't seem to be too interested, but said there "could perhaps be some sort of angle there". This might also be pretty difficult, because with FSD there will likely be very high utilization of Tesla's vehicles and its hardware chips, which is also why I don't think V2G will be that big long term, and only interesting until full autonomy is here. Autobidder does seem great, but more so for distributed powerwalls, powerpacks, and megapacks.

I doubt they'll compete with Amazon's actual website and selling of goods any time soon, if ever, but for sure Tesla is on track to be the king of all forms of mobility over roads, perhaps also many other forms of terrestrial transportation.

It's just, what do you do with one of more genius chip designers after they do HW3/FSD chips? Let them go, work on HW4 (if you know what is needed) or say to them, "we're dealing with lots of AI and car data - can you speed things up a bit?" - I don't think the FSD chips THEMSELVES are useful, but if you have clever chip designers, and you are organised like Tesla - I think designers/engineers can throw themselves into doing the best work of their lives. Having stock options may also help, but these kind of people are self-driven to around half-Elon level at least. What else would these people be doing?

Back to your first paragraph, if I contemplate that a while... it sounds very bullish/positive. Being close to money, is in itself, both profitable and potentially corrupting but Elon and Tesla DNA is a good defence. Overall, the upsides are mind-boggling if well executed and they have the bandwidth to do these things.

What would the ex-Apple Pay person WANT to do? What couldn't they do at Apple? What would they consider to be the best work of their lives? What is driving them to join Tesla? My guess is freedom to accomplish their hopes and dreams.

 

[kanweg]

Prediction : the stock will not close in the 1500s tomorrow. either 14xx or 16xx

if I’m not mistaken either would be a first.

 

[Favguy]

Well so far futures are green, should be an interesting day, can't wait to see what happens!