Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

Holy fook Batman!
My crystal ball just exploded.

I'm walking funny, but that's from a bad knee.

 

[troym]

I took a break from this thread the past week and so only read from Friday afternoon on, but one explanation for Friday’s absolute tear (which looks to continue into today, given pre-market) that I haven’t heard, is the price action of TSLA itself. In other words, it is being bid up simply because it continues to rise and those that have bought in at any price the last week have been making money hand over fist. (I wouldn’t dare use the term “bubble” for fear of being pilloried...)

Much of the conversation even here is simply just snips of the premarket ticker with wild speculation on how high the SP could go today/this week.

How many 6-10% up days will it take to admit TSLA has gotten quite frothy?

To be clear, I’m not predicting a pull back in the stock. With so many positive catalysts on the docket, I think it’s very unlikely we see a pullback without a major macro dip. If that doesn’t happen, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat of last weeks surge a few more times. I don’t think $2000 - $2500 near term is out of the question, however, once ER and Battery Day pass (assuming Q2 profit/SP inclusion), I think the SP will settle into a range where there is once again more of a consensus from members here re valuation.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yesterday I was predicting a fairly sharp pullback for today based on misinterpretation of the price cut, then a big swing back up to 1500 later in the week when people realize they pretty much cut out the "base model". I guess we're skipping that step.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

At some point you just HAVE to to raise some cash when SP is in the stratosphere. Wait til October perhaps but it makes sense to do $10B now and say it's for another Gigafactory yet to be decided.

 

[WarpedOne]

>> How many 6-10% up days will it take to admit TSLA has gotten quite frothy?

You tell us.
Fundamentals: share price is not a measure of a company performance, share price is a measure of public's sentiment of company performance.
Sentiments tend to be hard to change, but when they do change, they tend to change radically.
How high the tide will rise once the dam is broken is anybodies guess and only time will show.
Any preaching on true value, bubble etc has no grounds and only adds gasoline to the fire.

Market turned from adamant blind, stupid pessimist into discovery mode.
I will not try to guess what new grounds it will find, I play dead investor...

 

[Artful Dodger]

SP has gone ballistic once again after the 07:00 a.m. posse was let onto the paddock:

Jul. 13, 7:09 a.m. EDT
Pre-market 1,646.56 +101.91 (6.60%)​

P.S. Woot! There it IS! +100 Bux Pre-market

 

[FrankSG]

I took a break from this thread the past week and so only read from Friday afternoon on, but one explanation for Friday’s absolute tear (which looks to continue into today, given pre-market) that I haven’t heard, is the price action of TSLA itself. In other words, it is being bid up simply because it continues to rise and those that have bought in at any price the last week have been making money hand over fist. (I wouldn’t dare use the term “bubble” for fear of being pilloried...)

Much of the conversation even here is simply just snips of the premarket ticker with wild speculation on how high the SP could go today/this week.

How many 6-10% up days will it take to admit TSLA has gotten quite frothy?

To be clear, I’m not predicting a pull back in the stock. With so many positive catalysts on the docket, I think it’s very unlikely we see a pullback without a major macro dip. If that doesn’t happen, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat of last weeks surge a few more times. I don’t think $2000 - $2500 near term is out of the question, however, once ER and Battery Day pass (assuming Q2 profit/SP inclusion), I think the SP will settle into a range where there is once again more of a consensus from members here re valuation.

I agree there's a lot of buzz around TSLA right now, and there are undoubtedly a ton of traders trying to profit off of it.

Thing is that at least ~25M shares will have to be bought at ANY price by index funds if TSLA is indeed included in the S&P 500.

If at some point the shares in the hands of traders, speculators, and longs who want to sell but hope to sell for a higher price, outnumber the amount of shares that have to be bought by S&P 500 index funds, then we'll be entering bubble territory. I don't think we've reached that point yet, but time will tell.

 

[ammulder]

Are any of you longtime hodlers still accumulating at this level? I want to, given the promise of future earnings, but it is very hard to buy when earlier purchases were so much less expensive.

I bought a few during the MMD on Friday. Not as many as I would have if the stock was going down, though.

The truth is likely a combination of factors. But I believe Elon when he says the range was problematic. Because when does range tend to matter? That's right, when you're on the Interstate going 75 mph. And that's precisely where the Model Y with a smaller battery would start to show it's limitations. But I agree with your other points.

I wonder if Tesla will axe the 3SR+ so they can say their entire lineup has 300+ mile range? If they brought back the single motor 3 LR, they could make it $39,990 I expect, and make that their entry-level model. I'm not sure how much value there is in having a larger addressable market but only by selling a model subject to range criticism. And for instance, if Polestar 2/Mach-E/ID.3 actually reach the market with 275-300 mile range, the SR+ means Tesla can't claim every single model of theirs exceeds the range of competitors.

Maybe the 250 mile model is only an issue in the US, though. I've never gotten the feeling that Europe and China were as sensitive to range.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Prediction : the stock will not close in the 1500s tomorrow. either 14xx or 16xx

Predictions are hard, especially about the future.
- Yogi Berra

Or $17xx

This is crazy. Fun crazy.

 

[CLK350]

My impression from the action price and comments from others I read elsewhere is that (1) some whale had advance notice of a huge buy coming, hence the unusual huge call buy @1500 within a few days of last Friday's explosive 10% jump to 1540, so it could be seen as a manipulation to extract profits , and (2) you could see that there was huge pressure around the 1380 line, seeing how fast the shorts on Wed 7/8 @3 PM was pushed back up. Now with the SP up another 5% in pre market, to figure a good way to react, given I'm all in already ... or just sit back and enjoy the shows, both on tape and on substantial news.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

>> How many 6-10% up days will it take to admit TSLA has gotten quite frothy?

You tell us.
Fundamentals: share price is not a measure of a company performance, share price is a measure of public's sentiment of company performance.
Sentiments tend to be hard to change, but when they do change, they tend to change radically.
How high the tide will rise once the dam is broken is anybodies guess and only time will show.
Any preaching on true value, bubble etc has no grounds and only adds gasoline to the fire.

Market turned from adamant blind, stupid pessimist into discovery mode.
I will not try to guess what new grounds it will find, I play dead investor...

Let’s not fool ourselves. This no longer has anything to do with investors discovering Tesla’s performance as a company. Above 1100 the stock has developed its own dynamic, thanks to frontrunning of the S&P 500 inclusion, extreme call buying (and thus hedging by MM’s), a lot of FOMO and shorts covering. Tesla is strong and has a very bright future, but when everyone around you starts jumping onboard in order not miss the rise, you know something is wrong.

 

[anthonyj]

This will be Tesla. Triple in 3 minutes. Watch.
https://youtu.be/0xS-9EIg7G8

$3200 to $9500 in less than 3 minutes for some scam coin. Tesla has Elon, a national treasure who “likes the rockets, and happens to be very good with the rockets”. So you’re going to tell me Tesla can’t 2x in a day? I don’t see why it can’t go 4x or even 40x today. Elon lands rockets backwards on a pancake but TSLA can’t go $100k+, even for a split second? It’s just some freaking pixels on an LCD. Wake up people

 

[Oveeus]

@Oveeus, I disagreed with your post. Tesla's mission is to acceslerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. Tesla wants other EV companies to succeed. We need more than Tesla to change the world. The more EV cars on the road, the better for Tesla and the better for humanity, as each EV will replace an ICE.

I totally understand what you mean, but I guess I didn't make myself clear enough in the post.

With Foxconn trying to get into the game, I think it's just a matter of time when we see what happened to Android phones where you have countless minor brands just put everything together with their design and logo and called it a day when internal is all the same as whatever "skateboard" platform they were using. An EV resembles closer to an iPhone than an ICE cars when you look from an engineering POV. An ICE cars have hundreds or thousands of moving parts, each needing to comply to a lot of regulations as well as wears and tears in very harsh environment. EV, if you take the electric motor out of the equation, it's basically a giant iPhone.

By continuing pushing the price down as Tesla achieves saving, it prevents these minor players (at least for now) to come in and offer a subpar product that would simply taint the public opinion about EV.

Tesla made it very clear even with the first Roadster that EV can be fast, sexy and have good range; that EV can be on par or better than their ICE counterparts. And they are finally gaining traction. To have it all go to waste just so these "amateur" players can offer absolute bottom price to people who could barely afford a car in the first place is not positive for Tesla, its mission statement included.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I bought a few during the MMD on Friday. Not as many as I would have if the stock was going down, though.



I wonder if Tesla will axe the 3SR+ so they can say their entire lineup has 300+ mile range? If they brought back the single motor 3 LR, they could make it $39,990 I expect, and make that their entry-level model. I'm not sure how much value there is in having a larger addressable market but only by selling a model subject to range criticism. And for instance, if Polestar 2/Mach-E/ID.3 actually reach the market with 275-300 mile range, the SR+ means Tesla can't claim every single model of theirs exceeds the range of competitors.

Maybe the 250 mile model is only an issue in the US, though. I've never gotten the feeling that Europe and China were as sensitive to range.

This was on my mind too. Having one model below 300 is the same as having 2 or 3. A talking point of all Teslas do at least 300 miles (482? km) shows the clear difference and moves expectations.

 

[MartinAustin]

Currently at a market cap of $304 Billion in pre-market!

Regarding the Model Y price cut... it happened after Q2 was all finished. Probably as the Q2 financial information was becoming more clear internally.

Even if the factory cost of the Model Y was slowly falling through the year so far, they kept taking that additional $3,000 profit until Q2 was all done. Seeing Tesla relax their profit by $3,000 per Model Y early in Q3 helps me to believe their Q2 numbers are "satisfactory."

 

[mulder1231]

I found the "level 5 autonomy will take 1 billion lines of code" the saddest part of all... are they going to attempt to hard code level 5 autonomy or something?

Someone send them a link to Andrej Karpathy’s Software 2.0 lecture.

 

[Favguy]

Whilst I'm very much enjoying the show, If we touch $2000 over the next few days, I'm going to have to start crunching numbers and making some plans and decisions that I wasn't expecting to have to think about until the end of next year!

Oh well, first world problems eh...

 

[LJS22]

Tesla getting free advertising everywhere. USA Today has an article up about model Y price cut and soaring stock price. No other car manufacturer makes USA Today when they offer discounts haha

 

[NicoV]

Did anybody notice we reached a new all-time-high in pre-market?

 

[MABMAB]