Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[johnm6875]

The problem is not exactly the limited freefloat, but the amount of shares borrowed by short seller who have to cover. In other words: not Teslas problem...

The S&P committee could see where this company was going a long time ago, included it in March and been heroes. Now Tesla has to dilute to save them?

 

[Curt Renz]

Item 13 is approved.

Told ya.

The one commissioner insisting on another delay surprised me.

The judge was really anxious to get out of there.

Travis County vote just passed yes for Tesla.

4 yes - 0 no - 1 abstention (wanted more study time)

Hence, Travis County approved Tesla building a factory there.

 

[vikings123]

4 yes - 0 no - 1 abstention (wanted more study time)

Hence, Travis County approved Tesla building a factory there.

Common sense prevailed in the end. Elon would have probably said to hell with this if the court business was not completed today. They even debated if it makes sense to delay it by another week. Unbelievable.

The Tesla rep mentioned that Tesla was in discussions with another state and that pretty much ended the debate and they voted to approve.

 

[ruralectric]

AH rising due to vaccine news btw

After hours TSLA price move doesn't appear to be shared by the broader market. (I don't see a similar after-hours move in FANG anyway.)

Edit: I do see that futures are up though.

 

[Curt Renz]

As was the case yesterday, if TSLA had closed at the current after-hours price, it would have achieved an all-time closing high.

 

[wipster]

WeatherQuestions.com: What are dust devils?
In case you REALLY want to know.

dust-devils

 

[Curt Renz]

4 yes - 0 no - 1 abstention (wanted more study time)

Hence, Travis County approved Tesla building a factory there.

Statesman - half hour ago: Travis County gives thumbs up to Tesla tax break

Excerpt:

Tesla — which hasn’t said when it plans to make a decision on where to build the plant — still could seek a taxpayer-funded grant for the project from the Texas Enterprise Fund, the state’s deal-closing reserve that’s aimed at providing the final carrot to swing a corporate decision.

 

[wipster]

As was the case yesterday, if TSLA had closed at the current after-hours price, it would have achieved an all-time closing high.

Frankfurt should be fun tonight!

 

[BlackS]

Frankfurt should be fun tonight!

You staying up late enough to watch that?

 

[wipster]

You staying up late enough to watch that?

LOL... just the first hour!

 

[Remster32]

RBC issued an investor survey (n=35) to gauge sentiment for the auto sector ahead of Q2 earnings, with an interesting comment that I've highlighted.

When asked which OEM do you prefer, TSLA was "most neutral, a step back from April survey results (likely given the run in stock price +161% since our last survey) and perhaps another data point that [recent] TSLA interest is not necessarily being fueled by institutional investors"

Buy side expectations (AKA "Whisper numbers") are high relative to the sell side for TSLA deliveries.

• 50% of respondents expect over 800K deliveries for 2021. (800K+ was the highest option)
  
• 54% of respondents expect over 1.8M deliveries in 2025. (1.8M+ was the highest option)

They then stated, "Perhaps we had faulty questioning logic here given heavy skew to the 800k+/1.8M+ buckets"

 

[Stretch2727]

Several people already posted a link to Rob Maurer discussing the mechanics of a possible S&P 500 inclusion. What I found very interesting, starting at 13:50, is that a source with - according to Rob - inside knowledge of the inclusion process told him that other companies have in the past been asked to do a secondary offering to improve liquidity.

We all know that TSLA inclusion will probably lead to (extreme?) illiquidity of the stock, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the committee asks Tesla to do the same. Tesla may not have an immediate need for more cash, but they may have an immediate need for more shares.

The S&P indexes need to buy $40B! Even 10% of this is a $4B offering would be bigger than any offering I remember and more $$ than Tesla probably could use now.

This really begins to frame the issue. Buying $40B of TSLA will not be easy.

 

[Mike Smith]

RBC issued an investor survey (n=35) to gauge sentiment for the auto sector ahead of Q2 earnings, with an interesting comment that I've highlighted.

When asked which OEM do you prefer, TSLA was "most neutral, a step back from April survey results (likely given the run in stock price +161% since our last survey) and perhaps another data point that [recent] TSLA interest is not necessarily being fueled by institutional investors"

Buy side expectations (AKA "Whisper numbers") are high for TSLA deliveries.

• 50% of respondents expect over 800K deliveries for 2021. (800K+ was the highest option)
  
• 54% of respondents expect over 1.8M deliveries in 2025. (1.8M+ was the highest option)

They then stated, "Perhaps we had faulty questioning logic here given heavy skew to the 800k+/1.8M+ buckets"

Elon's estimate in the Oct 2019 ARK interview was for 1.5 million deliveries in 2021 and 3 million in 2023..

 

[Jackl1956]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bi...ravis-county-inks-tesla-factory-deal.amp.html

I’m hoping Tesla agreement includes rescinding NADA legislation.

 

[MC3OZ]

We all know that TSLA inclusion will probably lead to (extreme?) illiquidity of the stock, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the committee asks Tesla to do the same. Tesla may not have an immediate need for more cash, but they may have an immediate need for more shares.

Yes that also caught my attention, I'm in favour of a raise for say 25-30% of the shares funds need to buy for the following reasons.

1. The committee and funds may require it, or strongly request it. If Tesla says no, they will not add Tesla, or will use some other mechanism to solve the problem.

2. With front-running etc, the short term price spike may not be stellar, and if it is might not last long..

3. While Tesla may not need the money, they can use the money accelerating investment timelines when it is sensible to do so.

So I would not be surprised if the committee, the funds and Tesla agree to and if Tesla has a good use in mind already for the money.,

Keep in mind the funds are more or less buy and hold investors in any new shares issued.

 

[Mo City]

RBC issued an investor survey (n=35) to gauge sentiment for the auto sector ahead of Q2 earnings, with an interesting comment that I've highlighted.

When asked which OEM do you prefer, TSLA was "most neutral, a step back from April survey results (likely given the run in stock price +161% since our last survey) and perhaps another data point that [recent] TSLA interest is not necessarily being fueled by institutional investors"

Buy side expectations (AKA "Whisper numbers") are high for TSLA deliveries.

• 50% of respondents expect over 800K deliveries for 2021. (800K+ was the highest option)
  
• 54% of respondents expect over 1.8M deliveries in 2025. (1.8M+ was the highest option)

They then stated, "Perhaps we had faulty questioning logic here given heavy skew to the 800k+/1.8M+ buckets"

800K deliveries in 2021 is a worst case minimum. I expect over 1 million.
Same for 2025 at 1.8M. I think 2.0M is a strech goal for 2022 and all but certain in 2023.

 

[traxila]

To be fair, I've never seen anyone here say that buy and hold is always better than options!

I'm probably one of the biggest proponents of buy and hold investing to produce wealth and I've made considerable (huge) profits last year and into this year on call options. I buy them whenever I see the risk/reward ratio has turned wildly in my favor but I don't feel the need to constantly have open options. Unless the odds are hugely in your favor (mispriced due to a large discrepancy between perception and reality) then trading option is just hard work compared to buy and hold investing.

When possible, I like to build wealth the easy way. And for the vast majority of investors, buying and holding great companies is a much more certain path to build wealth.

Really weird, you were responding to something I never wrote. But I agree. All my gains in TSLA in the end are from buying and holding. If I had stuck with it 100% from when I first bought at 28 well...yeah. Not complaining. Thanks for everything.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Yes that also caught my attention, I'm in favour of a raise for say 25-30% of the shares funds need to buy for the following reasons.

1. The committee and funds may require it, or strongly request it. If Tesla says no, they will not add Tesla, or will use some other mechanism to solve the problem.

2. With front-running etc, the short term price spike may not be stellar, and if it is might not last long..

3. While Tesla may not need the money, they can use the money accelerating investment timelines when it is sensible to do so.

So I would not be surprised if the committee, the funds and Tesla agree to and if Tesla has a good use in mind already for the money.,

Keep in mind the funds are more or less buy and hold investors in any new shares issued.

I really don't understand all the difficulty people have with ensuring liquidity upon S&P 500 inclusion. All they have to do is get Chanos and friends to short the desired number of shares and magically increase supply. Problem solved!

 

[Curt Renz]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bi...ravis-county-inks-tesla-factory-deal.amp.html

I’m hoping Tesla agreement includes rescinding NADA legislation.

Yes, however these particular approvals were from a county and a school district. Tesla may still seek a grant from the Texas Enterprise Fund, and as you suggest, assurance from the state that Tesla will be allowed to sell directly to Texas customers. The latter concession was granted to Tesla as part of the 2014 deal with Nevada.

 

[HG Wells]

Trump is pushing for a capital gains tax holiday in next virus bill.

EDIT: No that won't get me to vote for him.