Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

heltok

Active Member
Aug 12, 2014
1,286
11,296
Sweden
Day three of Giga Texas:

A map of the plot, there are plenty of more areas to expand to:
upload_2020-7-26_9-18-24.jpeg
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
9,792
127,870
Canada
Running at optimum power efficiency.
Lots of metaphors use the old thinking about combustion and fuel (lol, Ad Agencies have tagged hydrocarbons as 'energy' except they are 'matter') :p

Here's just another example from the old mindset:

Phrase. cooking with gas. (idiomatic) Functioning particularly effectively; achieving something substantial. "With the updated software, I was really cooking with gas. I got the project done in half the time."

cooking with gas - Wiktionary


All this in spite of the fact that I haven't had a gas stove since the '80s or about the same time I got my first MS-DOS based PC... :p

Yes, MSFT has done well, but then they weren't a direct threat to Big Auto and Big Carbon.

Cheers!
 
Last edited:
  • Funny
Reactions: traxila

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,504
Singapore
Absolutely Y first. It doesn’t make sense otherwise. They’d want that factory printing money asap, at the very least so Elon can turn it into his butterfly conservatory.

You’re not understanding the challenge of the new processes that’ll be required to make the never done before in the history of mankind CYBRTRCK stainless steel body versus copy and paste conventional Y.

Of course they’d work on both in tandem, but Y will beat the truck to volume production.

Agree with most of what you say, especially that 2nd paragraph is very true.

But you know, they could've built Model 3 and Model Y concurrently in Shanghai, but didn't, and they could build 3+Y out concurrently in Berlin, but they're not doing that. If they built out both at the same time in Texas, ofc the Y should go up faster, but we don't really know the official plan.

My reason for having reservations about Y being built in Texas in 2021 is because I think the only ways to do so are:
  • Build out Cybertruck and Y concurrently, which we haven't seen before.
  • Miss the Cybertruck target.
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,504
Singapore
@FrankSG Thank you for your reply. I must have conveyed this earlier, hearty congratulations on your achievement, to-INSEAD-and-Singapore. Also, a fan of your blog.

The amount is significant.
I am wondering if there are possible hedges that can reduce the losses, covered calls (a big no no in TSLA community) against the shares I own don't make sense given the low premium now, maybe some other option strategy?

FWIW, here are the positions
View attachment 569113

Thanks!!

It looks like a lot of these options are currently down ~80-90% of their value? I don't think there's a lot you can do to hedge them at this point. Selling covered calls against your shares is a separate trade altogether, and should be evaluated separately. Don't feel the need to make another trade just to try and recover these losses. That's a bad idea.

I can't really tell you what to do with the remainder of these options. I neither know your goals, nor how much this remainder is worth to you.

Also can't really predict what macros will do, but personally I'd be tempted to just hold them. Although it's probably more likely than not that they'll end up OTM, they're quite cheap right now, so risk/reward of holding seems pretty good now that they're worth so little.
 

Christine69420

Autopilot's Assistant
Supporting Member
Oct 19, 2018
1,326
16,077
Scandiwegian
That's a good slogan for the brand, but what we're looking for right now is a way to update the commonly used metaphor "firing on all cylinders".

Steam engines used coal fires, steam-driven pistons and cylinders ever since James Watt's patent in 1769. That's over 250 years ago now! Like the nautical terms that have crept into our language, I'm sure that usage is here to stay, but I think it's also the wrong metaphor for EVs, which have no steam, no pistons, no cylinders, and hopefully no fires (certainly no intentional ones!)

Is there some commonly-known invention from the past that we can pull forward to the present to power our new metaphor? It would be great if Nickela Tesla himself had an idea we could update or adapt for use in the modern era of EVs.

Cheers!

If my friend and I decided to do a drag race together with his Audi A4 and my TMX then I might say something like -I hope your car is firing on all cylinders because you are gonna need it when I apply all the amps!
 

Runarbt

Active Member
Mar 1, 2013
1,126
4,156
Drammen, Norway
Thanks!!

It looks like a lot of these options are currently down ~80-90% of their value? I don't think there's a lot you can do to hedge them at this point. Selling covered calls against your shares is a separate trade altogether, and should be evaluated separately. Don't feel the need to make another trade just to try and recover these losses. That's a bad idea.

I can't really tell you what to do with the remainder of these options. I neither know your goals, nor how much this remainder is worth to you.

Also can't really predict what macros will do, but personally I'd be tempted to just hold them. Although it's probably more likely than not that they'll end up OTM, they're quite cheap right now, so risk/reward of holding seems pretty good now that they're worth so little.


Maximum pain next week is for now, $1500 isnt it?

So my guess (hope, as I have a few calls myself), is that we at least return temporary to 1600+.. before MM walk us down to $1500 by friday.

Oor.. we may continue to slide with macro to $1300, and MM walk us up to $1500 by friday.

Hard call.. I have no idea, so I just hold. My calls are 85% down.. Might consider rolling them to september, but sknce I have no spare cash, I'd trade multiple calls with 1 far OTM.. :-/

This sucks.. I really expected a climb after ER.. but then again, we almost always get a 2-3 day dip after ER before SP soar..

So I will just hold. Wont be fun.. but what can one do?
 
Sep 4, 2018
1,047
12,963
Berkshire Hathaway does buybucks.

If future earnings are NEVER returned to shareholders then they are worthless.

Then can be returned in 25 years. Or 50 years.

But at some point IN THE FUTURE they have to get back to shareholders.

its just staggering that this gets disagrees. I worry that people buy stock and sell stock without having any idea how stocks work, or even what they are, or even very very very basic economic theory.
I own a company outright (video games!). It pays me dividends, which I live off. I could choose not to pay the dividend this year, and reinvest all that money to grow the company, but why? why bother? whats the point?

The POINT is clearly to increase future profitability so that I can earn MORE dividends later. (even if thats 10,20,30 years from now).
If you *really* think that your stocks have the same (or even greater) worth if they NEVER pay dividedns, I'll give you $0.01 for the perpetual dividend rights to your stocks. PM me to set it up.

For everyone bragging about how amazons stock has gone up...yay great. Thats so they can dominate the market even more and thus pay whacking phat dividends later. You REALLY think that in 2060 amzn will not have returned a penny in dividends to its stockholders?
 

mrmage

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jan 10, 2019
506
2,933
The Peninsula, CA
@FrankSG Thank you for your reply. I must have conveyed this earlier, hearty congratulations on your achievement, to-INSEAD-and-Singapore. Also, a fan of your blog.

The amount is significant.
I am wondering if there are possible hedges that can reduce the losses, covered calls (a big no no in TSLA community) against the shares I own don't make sense given the low premium now, maybe some other option strategy?

FWIW, here are the positions
View attachment 569113

I have similar positions for jul31 1600c and 1800c that I purchased after earnings report.

I think there’s a decent chance they’ll pay off at least 2:1 (at Thu/Fri prices) at some point early next week, and may pay off much higher. However the opportunity may be fleeting.

Last quarter I was 5x in the money for similar lottos for 10 minutes. Then they dropped like rocks and they expired worthless at week’s end. I didn’t mind because I was only interested in a jackpot.

You might consider placing sells on some in advance at whatever you feel is worthwhile. This time I may sell some to recoup the investment if I have the chance, and let the rest ride.
 

pnungesser

BarNun
Dec 9, 2015
284
1,327
Mill Spring, NC
That's a good slogan for the brand, but what we're looking for right now is a way to update the commonly used metaphor "firing on all cylinders".

Steam engines used coal fires, steam-driven pistons and cylinders ever since James Watt's patent in 1769. That's over 250 years ago now! Like the nautical terms that have crept into our language, I'm sure that usage is here to stay, but I think it's also the wrong metaphor for EVs, which have no steam, no pistons, no cylinders, and hopefully no fires (certainly no intentional ones!)

Is there some commonly-known invention from the past that we can pull forward to the present to power our new metaphor? It would be great if Nickela Tesla himself had an idea we could update or adapt for use in the modern era of EVs.

Cheers!

The nerd in me want the phrase to be:
"Pulling on All Poles"
An electric motor has multiple poles which are pulled by magnetic forces. Accurate phrase, but not familiar enough to catch on with the general public.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: Artful Dodger

mrmage

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jan 10, 2019
506
2,933
The Peninsula, CA
its just staggering that this gets disagrees. I worry that people buy stock and sell stock without having any idea how stocks work, or even what they are, or even very very very basic economic theory.
I own a company outright (video games!). It pays me dividends, which I live off. I could choose not to pay the dividend this year, and reinvest all that money to grow the company, but why? why bother? whats the point?

The POINT is clearly to increase future profitability so that I can earn MORE dividends later. (even if thats 10,20,30 years from now).
If you *really* think that your stocks have the same (or even greater) worth if they NEVER pay dividedns, I'll give you $0.01 for the perpetual dividend rights to your stocks. PM me to set it up.

For everyone bragging about how amazons stock has gone up...yay great. Thats so they can dominate the market even more and thus pay whacking phat dividends later. You REALLY think that in 2060 amzn will not have returned a penny in dividends to its stockholders?

I’ve said it once, and will say it again. GLD. Or SLV. Or even investment grade art. All 0% yield, yet increasing in value.

The value of something is what you can sell it for, not what its yield is. The reason why an asset that never pays dividends has value is because the owner(s) *could* sell that asset. Actually selling it or dispersing the value is not necessary for its value to increase.
 

Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Supporting Member
Dec 19, 2018
3,441
37,710
Houston/Galveston
Yeah, nobody uses sailing analogies when referring to Tesla, yet the Governor of Texas used the phrase "hitting on all cylinders". He lacks an appropriate metaphor, imbued with the appropriate vision of the future of Tesla:

"No fire, No cylinders. Ludicrous Speed."

Cheers!
Ripping Torque. (Extracting moment from the magnetic field)

or Ripping Tau.
 
Last edited:
  • Funny
Reactions: Artful Dodger
Sep 4, 2018
1,047
12,963
The value of something is what you can sell it for, not what its yield is.

We all know this. What we are arguing about is WHY tesla stock is worth anything. If people wont accept that the value of ANY stock is eventually determined by its future dividend returns, even if thats not going to start for a billion years, then they have no clue whatsoever what they are doing.

Tesla will end up paying dividends. It might even be after musk has died on mars, but it will happen.
Why cant people accept that this is fundamentally and clearly true, even if we do NOT want tesla to prioritize dividends yet. Even apple and microsoft pay dividends.
 

Products we're discussing on TMC...

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top