Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thumper]

They did the same thing at HP. For maximum irony, they closed the innovation labs in Corvallis, OR just as they adopted the slogan "Invent". Corvallis was first to create the ink jet printer. Many good engineers were bought out and let go. Carly got bonuses. Typical.

 

[ZeApelido]

Interesting excerpt from this book:

One example within the book deals with separating noise and signal (meaning) within investing. Let’s say you have a dentist that can invest with a 15% average annual return with 10% annual volatility. For reference, the S&P 500 index has a ~10% average annual return and ~14% average annual volatility. The dentist has good thing going, with the portfolio doubling in value every 5 years on average.

An unexpected factor in his success is the frequency upon which he looks at his portfolio balance. Here’s a chart from the book showing the probability of a positive change in value based on how often the portfolio is checked.

If he were to check his portfolio every minute, he would only see a positive return 50.17% of the time. That is basically indiscernible from a coin flip. The problem is loss aversion.

Being emotional, he feels a pang with every loss, as it shows in red on his screen. He feels some pleasure when the performance is positive, but not in equivalent amount as the pain experienced when the performance is negative.

At the end of every day the dentist will be emotionally drained. A minute-by-minute examination of his performance means that each day (assuming eight hours per day) he will have 241 pleasurable minutes against 239 unpleasurable ones. These amount to 60,688 and 60,271, respectively, per year. Now realize that if the unpleasurable minute is worse in reverse pleasure than the pleasurable minute is in pleasure terms, then the dentist incurs a large deficit when examining his performance at a high frequency.

Again, this doesn’t go away even if you know about the phenomenon:

Regardless of what people claim, a negative pang is not offset by a positive one (some psychologists estimate the negative effect for an average loss to be up to 2.5 the magnitude of a positive one); it will lead to an emotional deficit.

Now, if he were to check that same portfolio only when his monthly statement arrives, he would see a positive return 67% of the time (2 out of 3). Finally, if he has the patience to check only once a year, she would see a positive return 93% of the time. The time scale matters.

Thought i'd share this with TMC......

I am not a greedy person. If TSLA wanted to appreciate a mere 10% each month for the next 4 years, I'm okay with that not checking the stock price all the time. It is a sacrifice, but one I'm willing to make.

Spoiler: Return After 4 years:

100x

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, first I don't know why all these reviewers keep bashing the key card. Consumer Reports also complained. They both grudgingly acknowledge that most people will use their phone, yet they don't focus on that. Brownlee apparently doesn't realize that after you've unlocked the car from the outside, you don't need to do anything else with the key card or phone to drive it - as long as you do it within 30 seconds. So his complaint that you need to put the key card on the center console isn't really appropriate for every day use. Then, his complaint that the key card flies off as you drive doesn't make sense at all as there's no reason to leave the key card there - once the car has read it, you can remove it and put it back in your purse or wallet. As an early Model 3 owner my biggest complaint here is that the phone and car don't always connect to each other as I walk up and so I'm standing there tugging on the handle and the door doesn't open. Half the time I reach into my pocket to get my phone it does connect, other times I have to wake my phone up (iPhone X, btw). I guess I don't have to actually open the app, but there's nothing more annoying than a convenience feature that isn't convenient.

So, the car he's driving was lent to him by Tesla for the review (as he says and it has Tesla OEM plates). Yet it still has obvious fit and finish issues like a very loose sun visor, large panel gaps, and a loose trim piece:
View attachment 569507 View attachment 569508 View attachment 569509

I appreciate what Brownlee says about the relative importance of such things, it is more than disappointing. When I talk with my fellow Tesla owners and Teslanaires about ordering a Model Y, we literally talk about waiting until Tesla gets its manufacturing act together. My early Model 3 (VIN under 2K) had a really bad panel alignment, very annoying wind noise at 50 mph, and a rear defroster where some of the lines didn't defrost. The Tesla Service Center was great and fixed all three, but 2 of those should never have passed QA. Anyway, we want to trade up to a Model Y and as a big Tesla fan as I am, am literally waiting. I can't be alone in this - and wonder if this is somehow hurting Tesla demand right now, hence the recent price cut ($2k, btw since FSD went up $1k at the same time).

Any new product it's smart to wait a bit while the glitches get ironed out.

I think it's a bit remiss from Tesla to give a car with such obvious issues to people who are going to review them. They should be going over these cars before they go out and. resolve all these stupid issues.

 

[ZeApelido]

Elektrek - early this morning: Tesla is now using pre-fab methods to accelerate buildout of new factories - Electrek

Tesla - the Mobile Home of Auto mfgrs

 

[Paul_SF]

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, first I don't know why all these reviewers keep bashing the key card. Consumer Reports also complained. They both grudgingly acknowledge that most people will use their phone, yet they don't focus on that. Brownlee apparently doesn't realize that after you've unlocked the car from the outside, you don't need to do anything else with the key card or phone to drive it - as long as you do it within 30 seconds. So his complaint that you need to put the key card on the center console isn't really appropriate for every day use. Then, his complaint that the key card flies off as you drive doesn't make sense at all as there's no reason to leave the key card there - once the car has read it, you can remove it and put it back in your purse or wallet. As an early Model 3 owner my biggest complaint here is that the phone and car don't always connect to each other as I walk up and so I'm standing there tugging on the handle and the door doesn't open. Half the time I reach into my pocket to get my phone it does connect, other times I have to wake my phone up (iPhone X, btw). I guess I don't have to actually open the app, but there's nothing more annoying than a convenience feature that isn't convenient.

Yes he is being stupid. I've owned my car for 2 years now and I've used the card a grand total of 3 times. No way he doesn't have his phone on him constantly.

 

[azaz]

It’s doing the dance again

edit:stuck at 1477

 

[Jack6591]

I haven’t noticed this post yet...

BMW Converts 5-Series To EV, Aims At 400,000 EVs A Year

 

[jerry33]

If you lose an election you also lose your power. And Trump is not wealthy enough to have market moving power based on wealth. So it's not clear how Trump could tank the market if he loses. That doesn't mean it won't tank if he loses, just that it won't be his doing if it does. Personally, I think it's more likely to tank if he wins.

The first year of a President’s office is running with the predecessor’s budget because the budget is finalized the previous year.

 

[Unpilot]

I haven’t noticed this post yet...

BMW Converts 5-Series To EV, Aims At 400,000 EVs A Year

Key word is "Aims"

 

[Tslynk67]

Hit its head on $1480 again.

This baby looks like it wants to fly...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The first year of a President’s office is running with the predecessor’s budget because the budget is finalized the previous year.

True but still with the Dem's controlling the house, it is impossible for Trump to purposely "tank" the economy or wall st. Anything he tries to push through can be veto'd by the Dem's in the House. The most he can do is make wild twitter claims but everyone including Wall St will know it's all bark with no bite.

 

[lafrisbee]

Ok settle down.... The only valid fanboy argument against reviewers nit picking is to Identify their concern is legitimate, AND it is such a small issue that it speaks to how good the product is.
Reviewers have to have a mix of positive and negative. The panel gaps I can't defend. No. There is no defense. Tesla manufacturing is screwing the pooch. There isn't any reason to allow the "gap" issue to be an issue. Period. It doesn't need to be discussed. it is proper shite. The "Y" is the "3". Period. Gaps should be right. Nothing else. So there is a deeper issue if no one at the plant has not figured out a solution then it brings into question every other aspect of the build.
but the card? I really enjoy it when a reviewer dwells on the card. It means there are no issues. It is like a cell phone reviewer for the last 20 years dwelling on less than a mm in thickness in a phone.
Fix the damn gap issue from the beginning or continue to blaringly show an ineptitude. Gaps can be measured. It isn't a guess. The gap is wrong or it is right based on a simple measuring. Do it.

 

[ggr]

I haven’t noticed this post yet...

BMW Converts 5-Series To EV, Aims At 400,000 EVs A Year

Ha. "It will also be launched with PHEV, petrol and diesel powertrains". Unless they actually commit to an EV, they are cactus; the fully electric version won't be optimized enough to compete with Model 3/S.

 

[Unpilot]

Come on @SpaceCash you know you want to say it..."She's Bullish.........

 

[Curt Renz]

Jeff Roberts - yesterday:

 

[Fred42]

Any new product it's smart to wait a bit while the glitches get ironed out.

I'll take the first CT off the line.

 

[smorgasbord]

Yes he is being stupid. I've owned my car for 2 years now and I've used the card a grand total of 3 times. No way he doesn't have his phone on him constantly.

I forgot to mention that the extra-cost key fob is a nice to have. If you're valet parking, for instance (although the valets always seem to be up on the latest), or even just wanting the trunk to pop open as you approach. I do admit, however, that I used the key fob a lot more before a software update added the ability to not auto-lock while at home.

And I recall one episode in which Tesla tech failed but other Tesla tech saved it. One of the early software updates on our Model 3 failed to complete, but didn't tell us. It left the security module inoperative. It just happened that my wife's phone battery had died away from home and so she went to use the key card, but the security module wasn't recognizing it. Stuck! Luckiily, she was with a friend and they called me. I was able unlock the car remotely with my phone app, even though I was a thousand miles away, which let them drive away (phone charging in the cradle, of course). It was an interesting set of calls with Tesla service on this problem, in which they pulled logs and eventually figured it all out - they manually re-pushed the software update to the car and all was well again. Luckily, the car was parked where there was cell service.

Which reminds me of a 2017 story about a Model S owner who used his app to unlock the car at home and drive it a long distance. Unfortunately, he drove it out into the desert, where there was no cell service, and when he stopped the car to adjust the dog seat it, of course, couldn't connect and so the car wouldn't start. His wife had to walk a couple miles to get to cell service to call a friend to get her, take her home to get the keys, then take her to the car. Tesla owner gets stranded in the desert after relying on phone to start the car The card key is nice in that it takes up almost no space in your wallet/purse so you can always have it as a 99.9% safety fallback, with my wife experiencing the 0.1%, of course.

 

[Tslynk67]

True but still with the Dem's controlling the house, it is impossible for Trump to purposely "tank" the economy or wall st. Anything he tries to push through can be veto'd by the Dem's in the House. The most he can do is make wild twitter claims but everyone including Wall St will know it's all bark with no bite.

Does the house change immediately after the election then? Not at the same time as Biden being inaugurated??

 

[smorgasbord]

I'll take the first CT off the line.

I know several people who got Signature Model S's, They loved their cars, but Tesla essentially reworked every one of them multiple times. Almost all have traded them in for newer models with things like folding mirrors and EAP.