Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I thank you both for your sacrifices.

I’m honestly not concerned. I‘ve owned 4 mini vans and have zero children. I’m obviously unconcerned with looks or stigma.

Anyway, it’s going to be used like a truck is supposed to be used. It’ll be so dirty, it could be missing an entire door and nobody would notice. I’ll beta test the beta right out of it.

 

[kbeckley]

To play devil's advocate: why do you believe market action after a great Q3 ER be different than what we say last week?

One thing i just noticed is that most of the new buildings do not have the vast number of truck doors as the Model 3 plant. I wonder if this is due to the ramp or because they will be bring in lots of raw material and less bulky off-site parts.

Edit: I have never seen as many cars on the test track at one time, as there are in this video.

I have been curious about the parts staging as well for the new buildings - not sure how they are going to handle that or why they switched processes - hopefully greater efficiency has been figured out. I wonder that the 'standard' is for auto plants. Fremont is such a monster it is hard to tell there. If you watch as the drone pans past the test track, just before it goes off screen, a door opens up and another Model 3 comes out. Pretty much every M3 ever built in China has birthed from that door.

 

[Sanny]

I do not want to brag and my shortest horizont trade ever that was profitable was about 2 years long, but todays move was super obvious to me since we started to tank on Thursday.

 

[Krugerrand]

If it turns into a clash, Wall Street will lose.

Selfishly, I’ve used one of my three wishes on asking for a showdown.

 

[JusRelax]

If Elon believes he can immediately put fresh cash to work productively to speed toward Tesla's goals, sure, present a subsequent offering of shares while the price is near a record high. It could push all competition many more laps behind.

The dilution argument would be falsified by the fact that the pie would be growing substantially, despite each shareholder owning a lesser percentage slice. We really shouldn't be overly desirous to hurt short sellers, since mainly the stubbornest are left, and they may hang on until Tesla starts paying dividends and the share price is much higher.

In any event, Tesla inclusion in the S&P 500 may be more important to S&P and the index funds that to Tesla. But if fresh funds could be useful to Tesla's mission, and the investment banks are fair to Tesla and are able to sell new shares at a high price, then go ahead and ring the bell now.

@Curt Renz I just wanted to tell you that I am so glad that you bought back in after selling off and have been on the ride ever since.

 

[StealthP3D]

I saw the opening picture in the video and wondered which one was the talking head.

The elk was channeling the words through Whorey Gordy.

 

[Big Time]

The elk was channeling the words through Whorey Gordy.

Gordy looks fat with his suspenders. What a douchebag

 

[dgodfrey]

I have a few thoughts on that one.

1 - cynical version - They are trying to convince people to buy now by showing that they will keep increasing price. (I don't think this is the case)
2 - practical version - More functionality means it's worth more, simple as that.
3 - strategic version - Hoping that increasing revenue from software will offset price cuts on vehicles to increase install base while still keeping margins at a similar range

I think 3 is probably accurate.


No, but they are legion.

Elon has explained this many times. It makes the car an appreciating asset, so he wants a share of the buyer's revenue.

Similar to ggr's post, I think it's possibly an if/then statement bouncing off your #2 and #3. Because it's worth more and has the opportunity to generate revenue, it's now commercialized, therefore ripe for profit taking. No 'F's given.

I am convinced about Musk's sincerity in trying to get as many BEV's in the hands of consumers as is possible and certainly the lower the price point, the bigger the market (bottom of pyramid). Stripping the car down to it's minimum functionality would be a start. I believe legacy automakers make their biggest margins on upgrades. Base versions are not only difficult to find on the lot but probably loss leaders. I would imagine the margins on the Tesla "beetle" would be half the norm but still better than base legacy Malibu's.

What complicates this a bit is the marketing strategy to offer a product with the same nameplate as the Roadster at 1/10th the price. While it may make the entry level car seem attractive lumped into the family of overachievers, in the long run does it really pan out? I think back to the MB 190 as a classic example. Regardless, his recent statement of 300 mile range minimum will make a $25k runabout no easy feat unless Battery Day springs some big surprises. It's not impossible.

 

[Sancho]

While waiting today for the rerun of the Battle for $1500, I went back 3000 pages in this thread to the first Battle for $500, which occurred only six months ago.

The battle had been raging for a week or so, until, before trading started on Monday January 13, Oppenheimer raised its price target a couple of hundred dollars to over $600. Within minutes of the open the SP breached $500, not to look back until the pandemic hit two months later.

We’ve created here a detailed written history of every tick of the tape. We were all pretty excited at that moment, with no conception of what was about to happen to Tesla, TSLA and world health.

And the tape keeps on ticking...

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 4 hours ago: Tesla is going to build 'completely new batteries' at Gigafactory Berlin, German official says - Electrek

 

[smorgasbord]

Elon has explained this many times. It makes the car an appreciating asset, so he wants a share of the buyer's revenue.

But that runs counter to the "as affordable as possible" mantra that gets repeated here.

 

[Silentk]

Seen on Twitter::

https://twitter.com/mightytesla/status/1287813670064590850?s=21

 

[Curt Renz]

But that runs counter to the "as affordable as possible" mantra that gets repeated here.

It may seem that way, but "affordable" and "profitable" for owners do not appear to be identical concepts.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Seen on Twitter::

View attachment 569620

https://twitter.com/mightytesla/status/1287813670064590850?s=21

I hold 4 of those 6! Do I get a prize!?

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Would it make sense for a 5:1 or 10:1 split now to take us to a $150-$300 SP?

 

[Steve m]

Can’t a mod get some rest? You all know political talk has no place here. Take it to the Market Politics thread.

Can't we take a vote?

 

[smorgasbord]

SP500 needs Tesla, Tesla doesn't need SP500.

Clearly the extreme short selling in TSLA bothers Elon. After all, it's why he considered taking the company private a little while back. Being part of the S&P 500 will curb the short-selling. I wouldn't put it past Elon to bite his nose to spite his face, though.

One aspect of S&P 500 inclusion that hasn't been discussed enough is where Tesla fits in the S&P's GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard). This consists of 11 sectors:

1. Energy
2. Materials
3. Industrials
4. Consumer Discretionary
5. Consumer Staples
6. Health Care
7. Financials
8. Information Technology
9. Communication Services
10. Utilities
11. Real Estate

Presumably, S&P thinks of Tesla only as an automaker and so that would be in the Consumer Discretionary Sector, Automobiles & Components Industry Group, Automobiles Industry, Automobile Manufacturers Sub-Industry (GICS 25102010). That's actually a trackable thing in and of itself.

It's interesting to note that while there is an Energy Sector, there doesn't seem to be a Sub-Industry for renewables - only "oil & gas." And while the Consumer Discretionary sector has done better than the entire S&P 500 as a whole, the Energy sector has done worse. There are 26 companies in the Energy sector: S&P 500 Energy [Sector] (SREN) Quote - Components

There are 61 companies in the Consumer Discretionary sector, with the 10 biggest being:
Amazon, Home Depot, McDonald's, NIKE, Lowe's, Starbucks, Booking Holdings, TJX Cos, Target & Dollar General. (https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/i...90c8c-42c4-46af-8d1a-0cd5db894797&indexId=139 ) In terms of automakers just GM & Ford, with support from O'Reilly and Autozone (S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary [Sector] (SRCD) Quote )

The Consumer Discretionary sector as a whole is under 10% of the Index (https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/500-sector-representation.xlsx ), so it's not overcrowded. Of the 11 sectors, it comes in at #5 (behind IT, Healthcare, Financials, and Communication Services), so there's probably plenty of room to add Tesla there.

I don't see any red flags in terms of GICS for adding TSLA to the S&P 500.

 

[Words of HABIT]

On days like today, I'm glad I only own one stock.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I have found that big up days are a big drain on my energy. Not at all fun, to be honest. This is a bit of a head-scratcher. More money is more fun, right?

Perhaps on big up days, I check the price very often. Even on big up days, the quote is a down-tick only slightly less than an up-tick.

On a big down day, I can just tune it all out and not check the ticker. So big down days are, perversely, more enjoyable for me.

@Rarity, I'm so very sorry for you for not having a fun day today. To everyone else, oh happy day!

 

[wipster]

If Elon believes he can immediately put fresh cash to work productively to speed more rapidly toward Tesla's goals, sure, present a subsequent offering of shares while the price is near a record high. It could push all competition many more laps behind.

We really shouldn't be overly desirous to hurt short sellers, since mainly the stubbornest are left. They may hang on until Tesla starts paying dividends, and the share price is much higher.

Any dilution argument would be falsified by the fact that the pie would be growing, despite each shareholder owning a lesser percentage slice. New money becomes an asset belonging to all shareholders.

In any event, Tesla inclusion in the S&P 500 may be more important to S&P and the index funds than to Tesla. But if fresh funds could be useful to Tesla's mission, and the investment banks are fair to Tesla and are able to sell new shares at a high price, then go ahead and ring the bell now.

Thanks once again for your knowledgeable viewpoint Curt! If Tesla were to issue additional shares, how many do you think they would issue and what percentage of the total issued do you think it would represent? Appreciate your input!