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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You mean they'll tell us how it is the sign of imminent bankruptcy?
Just reached 5.72%. Seems obvious that Elon’s new facial hair is playing a role in today’s success.
So this year 3K Model 3/week, next year 500K, so 10K/week.
I guess that’s on top of the 10K/week in Fremont.
Please update your spreadsheets accordingly!
Based on Elon's statements at the ground breaking / on twitter, I suspect that we'll only see SR and perhaps MR vehicles built in China, and that they likely will use locally sourced 2170 cells of likely lower performance vs what is coming out of GF1, at least in the short term - eventually they may bring up a comparable set of cell production lines to GF1. However it may be they start with sourcing 2170 from off-site Chinese suppliers and then bring production on-site, yet still in doing so might not bring their / Panasonic's secret sauce to the party.
Order a premium vehicle (LR AWD / Performance) and get it made in the US with best battery tech. Order a SR RWD and get a Tesla, but a cheap Tesla they literally wouldn't sell anywhere else. I expect Tesla will still demand a certain level of quality / performance from their cell suppliers, but it will be one obtainable without giving away their / Panasonic's secret sauce. So it won't be garbage, it just won't be best.
Another consideration is if they aren't producing premium vehicles, this likely includes interior too. So I am expecting only "SR" RWD and possibly "MR" RWD (scare quotes because they may have different ranges than vehicles built in Fremont due to different cell chemistries), no AWD models, no premium interiors. Metal roofs, unless Tesla decides to include all glass roof in the base package - either way I expect this to be either one or the other, not a variable. I am expecting the only production variation other than wheels and paint colors would be battery pack size (and they might not even do that and do only "SR" models).
Also, since they're only producing non-premium vehicles, even though they will eventually build Y for China, it will again likely be only non-premium flavor, they won't build Y for global distribution and ship out of China. So the "search" for where to build Y will continue until it is announced (building Y in China and exporting it wasn't an impossible solution, though it would have been difficult timing wise even with Chinese construction speed for the factory itself).
Order a premium vehicle (LR AWD / Performance) and get it made in the US with best battery tech. Order a SR RWD and get a Tesla, but a cheap Tesla they literally wouldn't sell anywhere else. I expect Tesla will still demand a certain level of quality / performance from their cell suppliers, but it will be one obtainable without giving away their / Panasonic's secret sauce. So it won't be garbage, it just won't be best.
Another consideration is if they aren't producing premium vehicles, this likely includes interior too. So I am expecting only "SR" RWD and possibly "MR" RWD (scare quotes because they may have different ranges than vehicles built in Fremont due to different cell chemistries), no AWD models, no premium interiors. Metal roofs, unless Tesla decides to include all glass roof in the base package - either way I expect this to be either one or the other, not a variable. I am expecting the only production variation other than wheels and paint colors would be battery pack size (and they might not even do that and do only "SR" models).
Also, since they're only producing non-premium vehicles, even though they will eventually build Y for China, it will again likely be only non-premium flavor, they won't build Y for global distribution and ship out of China. So the "search" for where to build Y will continue until it is announced (building Y in China and exporting it wasn't an impossible solution, though it would have been difficult timing wise even with Chinese construction speed for the factory itself).
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, I'm not sure where CNBC gets the 3K/wk initial production. I think they are conflating that number with initial export rate to China from Fremont (Q1 2019).
The only 2 production targets I've heard are 250K/yr initially, and 500K/yr in a few years.
That's 5K/wk initially, not 3k. But CNBC likes to play fast and loose with guidance from Tesla, and they especially enjoy misunderstandings on the short side.
No matter! Tesla don't need no stinkin' badges (A.K.A. a Wall St. capital raise).
Cheers!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Correct. Some say that Elon is just a monacle and a siamese cat away from becoming a supervillain.
This is incorrect. Elon clearly shows his preference for the Cheshire cat. Anime, that is.
Cheers!
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
There was a 20+ handles drop on NASDAQ within a few minutes - maybe China talks not going well, or some other bad news, or aggressive profit taking?
TSLA is being dragged down by that - but less than the usual correlation.
TSLA is being dragged down by that - but less than the usual correlation.
anthonyj
Stonks
I just want to point out that Elon’s twitter behavior is similar to October when the stock jumped $80 in a few days
Not to mention the lack of environmental regulation. The Chinese are catching up with the west but it would be surprising indeed if their regulations were more strict than California .
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
GF3/Shanghai will be SR only with the new std rge pack. The MR produced in the USA uses the same pack as the LR, but is depopulated to cut costs. There is no reason to duplicate the LR/MR pack production line in Shanghai when they will sell every one of 500K SR Models 3/Y each year.
Remember, Elon also said Shanghai SR production will supply the Region. So that likely means Korea, Japan, Australia, generally SE Asia.
Local sourcing of 2170 cells was also annouced by Elon a while ago, with multiple suppliers including Panasonic. There is no reason to expect inferior quality, the chemistry is Tesla'a IP, and the magic is in the sauce (and the robots).
Cheers!
Chinese regulation largely depends on whether you have gov support, and on that front Tesla appears to have full support both from Shanghai and Beijing.
Not saying Tesla could cut corners or should attempt doing something incorrectly, but at least it wouldn’t face bureaucratic drag there.
You don’t seem to understand my post. I am not a bear. I was mocking this particular ulrabear. (Gordon)
Actually he said "Shanghai Giga output is just for greater China, not North America. Affordable cars must be made on same continent as customers."
Etna
Member
No Chinese visa required in Shanghai and several other cities when staying less than 144 hours.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Shanghai's SR RWD Model 3 is going to be like the Volkswagen was in 1938. They are going to sell hundreds of thousands... millions even! Basic family transportation (for middle class I guess)
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