Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JBRR]

DAILY DRIVE PODCAST: August 3, 2020 | One-on-one with Elon Musk (Part 2): A third U.S. plant 'very likely'

DAILY DRIVE PODCAST: August 3, 2020 | One-on-one with Elon Musk (Part 2): A third U.S. plant 'very likely'

"Maybe we can get some exceptions for the EU rules, depending on how it's classified, but we're really fundamentally making this truck as a north American ass kicker".
Clearly they intend to sell this elsewhere than north America.

 

[SarahsDad]

There's rumors here in Western NC that local mining company Piedmont Lithium (PLL) is in talks with Tesla. That would make sense, I actually brought this up here over a year ago.

There's an abandoned Lithium mine here in NC that could yield up to 20 tons of lithium ore a year for as long as 20 years according to the new owners. They're planning a slow startup with production restarting in 2021 but I bet Elon could speed that up if he purchased the company... NC was once a top source of lithium. Growing demand could lead to a mine near Charlotte. About :: Piedmont Lithium Limited (PLL)

And there's an article about Tesla on a Piedmont Lithium-sponsored marketing site here Piedmont Lithium Limited (NASDAQ: PLL). Hmmm.

Company website is here Piedmont Lithium Limited (PLL)

Another take on this:

If this is true, I'd expect an announcement on Battery Day.

Full Disclosure: Bought a little bit of PLL, as Jack Rickard would say, "for fun".

Not an advice.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Full transcript of the interview already published:

Transcript of Elon Musk's conversation with Automotive News

 

[elasalle]

What affect would a secondary/supplemental offering have on strike prices for outstanding options, particularly OOTM call options? I assume the option contract would not change as it is essentially a separate security. But if there is a secondary offering with dilutive effects, that would seem to impact the likelihood of increasing SP toward the strike price. Example, 12/31/20 $1750 call option. Thoughts?

Secondary is dilutive, but SP really depends on how market reacts to the secondary. If Secondary is small, acts as cushion for S&P and will be used to accelerate battery production/GF TX, I think it will be net-net positive.

(+S&P, Battery Day, Stock Split, Q3 deliveries -- +ves, Secondary -ve)

 

[Nocturnal]

"we've had several hundred thousand people place orders for the truck". Article from the other day said over 200.000, but several could obv easily mean more than 2.

Based on the limited data we have, the total number of orders is probably 600k+.

 

[Joesantelli]

Until we don't hit 1650 I won't feel safe from 1500

 

[mrmage]

Question: which is the wise path when buying Tesla.
A) purchasing shares weekly on payday
B) waiting for a “pullback” to 1200$

A downside: missing out on lower cost shares and increasing cost basis significantly over time
B downside: it’ll never pull back to 1200$ and I’ll be timing the market for more shares forever

Or you could use options to potentially reduce the price.

C) buy 100 shares now, and sell a covered call. You receive the option premium to lower the cost of the shares, at the risk of losing them (for a profit) if the SP > strike price at expiration. Otoh, you make money even if shares are called away, instead of waiting for a $1200 SP that may never arrive.

D) buy 100 shares now around $1480 and place a ~1200/1960 collar on them that expires in 2 to 5 months. ThIs requires selling a call at $1960 and buying a put at $1200 for each 100 shares you buy. The collar is free.

a. If TSLA falls before expiration, you can sell the collar for a profit and keep the shares for an effectively lower price. For example, if TSLA went down to $1200 next week on a Oct 16 collar, you could sell the collar for about $130/share.
b. If TSLA is between $1200 and $1980 at expiration, the collar expires worthless and you keep the shares.
c. If TSLA is above $1980 at expiration, you lose the TSLA shares for $500 profit each.
d) If TSLA is below $1200 at expiration, the collar is worth 1200 - TSLA SP for each share. The collar guarantees your shares are worth at least $1200.

Last week I did (D) except at 1100/2100 and bought DITM calls instead of shares.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I don't get it. Since I've learned about Tesla and discovered that the future will be electric, I see expensive ICE cars as outdated piece of machines - like gleaming steam locomotives, or ripe pineapples. Their price, refinement and exuberance don't change that.

I may be a little early in this realization, but I'm not special so I expect the mass to share that view in the coming years (just wait for the Tesla Roadster to be delivered in volume!), and the rich to quickly get rid of their noisy, smoky, lousy, flashy ferraris.

I personally don't disagree, I just tell you what I've seen (Ferrari is based in my hometown and I get to see quite a few of them).
Everything is about storytelling, and if there are few thousand people with enough money who still believe their story, I think they are in a better position than other luxury brands who actually need ot have much more volume.

Of course, there are a lot of young millionaires who are not interested in any of this and they want to go fast: they will buy the Roadster in a heartbeat.
A friend of mine (who actually knows very well the Ferrari family, and has friends who own a lot of them) drives a Tesla since 2015.
He thinks the Roadster will intercept a segment of people that can buy a supercar (eg Ferrari), but not an hypercar (eg. Pagani, Bugatti). Like the Roadster is a cheap hypercar ;-)

 

[joh01652]

Any thoughts on what the single motor Y will run?

When I bought my LR AWD MY in June the standard price sheet that vehicles have on their dash or stuck to windshield said the base price was $41K. Sadly, I threw it away and didn't think about taking a pic, so I can't say what the breakdown was for AWD, LR, etc.

Anyway, lowest base price for 2020 MY is $41K. Next year's sales slip will probably reflect something different.

 

[oldTAVguy]

"we've had several hundred thousand people place orders for the truck". Article from the other day said over 200.000, but several could obv easily mean more than 2.

Definitely more than "2".

Edit: I should change this as the only certainty I have is the 2 I have on order.

 

[Words of HABIT]

....and for anyone who still thinks Tesla does not have a substantial moat, I give you exhibit G3.

 

[Nocturnal]

....and for anyone who still thinks Tesla does not have a substantial moat, I give you exhibit G3.
View attachment 571947

I see what you did there. lol

 

[Favguy]

Nice article on Teslarati on MIC M3 great build quality:
Tesla China manufacturing shines as MIC Model 3 claims top spot in quality survey

This is excellent news, I expect to hear similar about the Berlin built cars in due course. I'm sure the US built cars will shake off the US style panel gaps as well eventually! All joking apart though, a German built Tesla will go down really well with many in Europe and the UK who still won't buy US built cars due to the (probably correct) perception of a lower build quality, so it's all just going to get better and better.

 

[Off Shore]

as if they weren't making ICE vehicles

They're making ICE, but they're not making vehicles. They're making trophies with seats and wheels. When they DO bring out an electric it will be noteworthy, but not important.

 

[jerry33]

Definitely more than "2".

My assumption on that article was that they believe 2/3 of the reservations will cancel. I can see a few cancel, but not anywhere near 2/3, maybe 10-15%.

 

[Nocturnal]

This is excellent news, I expect to hear similar about the Berlin built cars in due course. I'm sure the US built cars will shake off the US style panel gaps as well eventually! All joking apart though, a German built Tesla will go down really well with all those in Europe and the UK who still won't buy US built cars due to the perception of low build quality, so it's all just going to get better and better.

It's such a dead issue. Even Bob Lutz admitted that the panel gap thing was resolved (enough anyway).

My assumption on that article was that they believe 2/3 of the reservations will cancel. I can see a few cancel, but not anywhere near 2/3, maybe 10-15%.

I've been estimating that 40% will cancel myself. Small refundable deposit, long ways away, some ordered assuming they will have more money in 2 years (most will have the same), and some like myself ordered multiples for an FSD/robotaxi play.

I ordered a tri for myself and 2 duals for that purpose. If FSD looks likely I'll buy them, if not I won't.

 

[smorgasbord]

Ferrari market cap is $30+ billion. That's huge for a company selling few cars, at least compared to other ICE makers.

1. When do they plan to switch to BEV?
2. How fast and successful can they be in this transition? How much resources have they invested already?
   
3. Would Tesla be an option to customers cross-shopping Ferraris? If not, why and how deep is the moat?
   
4. What could distinguish Ferrari cars from Tesla, besides branding and exclusivity (e.g quality, features, range, customization...)?
5. [edit] Should Tesla consider launching sub-brands at some point, to better compete in the luxury space (vs robotaxis, trucks, family cars...)? If so, how can Ferrari keep up if their tech isn't as good as Tesla?

It seems that we expect Tesla to take market shares for all manufacturers and that the industry (and the stock market is finally realizing that, but so far, Ferrari seems unmoved, as if they weren't making ICE vehicles.

Ferrari has a plug-in hybrid. Actually, 2 - both are over $1Million and both are sold out: Ferrari 2020 Model List: Current Lineup, Prices, & Reviews The cheapest Ferrari is the Portofino, at $215K. I read somewhere that the average profit per vehicle is close to $100K.

Until Tesla wins an F1 race, Ferrari will maintain its mystique. The limited-edition million-dollar versions are rolling advertisements that you're in the "3 comma club." Even if the doors sometimes open "normally."

 

[Unpilot]

MUST BREAKTHROUGH THIS 1500 RESISTANCE!

 

[Favguy]

It's such a dead issue. Even Bob Lutz admitted that the panel gap thing was resolved (enough anyway).

But it isn't. Maybe they are good enough to meet the "norm" for US cosmetic quality now, but there are significant issues with both shoddy paint finish and poor panel alignment on a significant minority of cars we are getting over here. I make a point of looking around the Tesla's I see around and although most are OK, some really aren't. It's probably as much a local PDI issue, but the cars wouldn't need PDI panel re-alignment if they all came out the factory right!

I'm long TSLA with a significant holding since 2012 and an absolute fanboy so I don't say this with any bad intent.

 

[smorgasbord]

I disagree I think we could see a 6x run again. Especially ONLY if Tesla solves FSD.

FTFY