Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Well I was referring to all the EV wannabees that seem to crop up every week with really super photoshops of EVs coming in a couple years. The woman in the video rattled off 4 or 5, a few of which I've never heard of . Yes Jaguar only made the I-Pace only as a compliance answer to Tesla. My belief still stands that Tesla's market and if those EV companies produce and sell cars they are going after the whole enchilada. That is the mission.

Oh all the wannabes are just after Tesla's market cap. I would say Nio and Lucid are serious, the rest are nothing but a bunch of dog coins.

Anyways, the best chance for an EV competitor against Tesla is from the Legacy. These new start ups including Nio/Lucid will fail. Tesla faced bankruptcy 3 times and this is with zero EV competition and his cultish fans gave Tesla a lot of good will. Nio and Lucid will soon find that Tesla will just absolutely crush them because it's the ecosystem that determines the life or death of the company, and EVs are at a massive disadvantage when it comes to the support system that ICE cars enjoy (gas stations, 3rd party repair shops) and yet hundreds of ICE companies ended up in the graveyard this past century anyways.

 

[Causalien]

Great genetic potential
Good parenting
A good education system
A series of good choices presented at the same time of good opportunities

I recently was made aware of many ppl inheriting $$$ from theit grand parents when they reach 25. I din't get anything from my grand parents. But seems like many do.

 

[Nocturnal]

Well I was referring to all the EV wannabees that seem to crop up every week with really super photoshops of EVs coming in a couple years. The woman in the video rattled off 4 or 5, a few of which I've never heard of . Yes Jaguar only made the I-Pace only as a compliance answer to Tesla. My belief still stands that Tesla's market and if those EV companies produce and sell cars they are going after the whole enchilada. That is the mission.

Sure the range sucks, and the performance is crap, and they don't make any profit on them, and dealers don't want to sell or service them, but bro, have you seen the dashboard? Tesla could never have that many buttons.

I recently was made aware of many ppl inheriting $$$ from theit grand parents when they reach 25. I din't get anything from my grand parents. But seems like many do.

I know a few like that but in the scheme of things that's very rare. Most people aren't well off.

My grandma still sends me $20 on my birthday. I stopped cashing those checks decades ago.

 

[Thekiwi]

What are the odds we get PowerWall 3 at battery day?

 

[phantasms]

What are the odds we get PowerWall 3 at battery day?

I'd say slim but I'm personally holding off buying mine until after B-Day. Funny that with incentives it's a good bit cheaper for me to buy 3 Powerwalls and the small solar setup than to just buy the 3 Powerwalls alone. I currently have a 11.88kW Tesla system.

Personally I'd love to get some HVAC news as I really really want to get rid of the oil setup we currently have. Dandelion was damn near $100k. F that *sugar*.

 

[dc_h]

I’d be all over that. The Golden Retriever hair is like tumbleweeds around here sometimes.

Black lab. Need a robot to stalk him.

 

[mblakele]

Oh all the wannabes are just after Tesla's market cap. I would say Nio and Lucid are serious, the rest are nothing but a bunch of dog coins.

Anyways, the best chance for an EV competitor against Tesla is from the Legacy. These new start ups including Nio/Lucid will fail. Tesla faced bankruptcy 3 times and this is with zero EV competition and his cultish fans gave Tesla a lot of good will. Nio and Lucid will soon find that Tesla will just absolutely crush them because it's the ecosystem that determines the life or death of the company, and EVs are at a massive disadvantage when it comes to the support system that ICE cars enjoy (gas stations, 3rd party repair shops) and yet hundreds of ICE companies ended up in the graveyard this past century anyways.

You make a good case for M&A and joint ventures between legacy carmakers and EV startups. That won't set them up to beat Tesla, but I think it'll be their only option for survival.

 

[GrandEnigma]

What are the odds we get PowerWall 3 at battery day?

My pending solar order would like to know this too.

 

[woof]

Please no! I struggle to read 1:1 pages, 5:1 would be impossible!

While the number of shares goes increases at 5:1, the price per share decreases at 1:5. We've noted that the number of posts follows the price, so now there will be 5 times less posts!

 

[willow_hiller]

Funny that with incentives it's a good bit cheaper for me to buy 3 Powerwalls and the small solar setup than to just buy the 3 Powerwalls alone. I currently have a 11.88kW Tesla system.

IRS guidance on the solar Federal Tax Credit actually allows you to claim it on Powerwalls alone. The guidance says it can be claimed for battery storage if "installed with solar," which a lot of folks interpreted to mean "installed at the same time." But the IRS clarified that they meant battery storage qualifies if it is connected to a solar panel system.

I'm getting 12.24 kW of Tesla panels installed this month, but I'm also holding off on PWs. Could be PW3 at Battery Day, or they could announce something like a DC-to-DC bidirectional charger that would enable V2G with the current fleet. Or even just a more affordable/longer lasting PW.

 

[Mo City]

You make a good case for M&A and joint ventures between legacy carmakers and EV startups. That won't set them up to beat Tesla, but I think it'll be their only option for survival.

This is what I've said all along. Most here don't agree. The startups don't have the resources to scale up. Tesla is about to go "commando" on the entire industry and it will be brutal.

 

[FrankSG]

Let's assume @Artful Dodger 's theory about the dividend-split forcing the hands of the MM's to "legitimize" their naked shorting (by borrowing the shares and/or covering them). The current rally maybe an indication of that squeeze as it seems to be bigger than a usual reaction to stock-split (see AAPL). So what can we expect in the near-future ?
Here is my hypothesis (mind you I don't really know what I am talking about, so definitely do not take it as advice):

• Naked short squeeze continues until this Friday (21st) driven by MM's to legitimize their shenanigans
• Next week we trade mostly side-ways just following macros with usual high-beta multiple as the squeeze pressure is no longer in play, but MMs still cannot return to naked shorting until the split is executed (otherwise they would still need to cough up the extra 4 shares for each naked shorted one)
• The week following the split from 31st they can get back into naked shorting, plus all the traders who were front-running the split would be inclined to take profit, so I would expect a dip there
• Whenever the S&P500 committee pulls their *sugar* together and make the announcement of TSLA inclusion will trigger the next big run-up
• Battery day 22nd Sept will be another milestone which will trigger a runup and a following dip in the usual buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news style

So these are my expectations for the next month or so, although I have been known to be wrong about SP movements...

Without guessing, assuming or countering any reasons for the rocket up, I would guess that many fund families are accruing on behalf of their index funds, so they’ll be able to buy shares when inclusion happens. It sounds like they meet monthly and next sept 21st and announce the next week. I’m sure they have other jobs and are expected to be current with potential additions and deletions.
I don’t know jack, but if I ran fidelity, I’d want my index funds to match index performance and beet most of my peers.

I continue to believe run-ups like this are mostly due to delta hedging requirements. A small boost to sentiment like strong Q4'19 ER, expectations of and announcement of strong Q2 P&D, and now a stock split, all resulted in a moderate amount of buying pressure, and the reason they led to monster run-ups were in my opinion delta hedging.

This table, brought to us by @generalenthu, calculates the # of shares market makers need to own to be delta neutral, if they have the short side of all options open interest and delta hedge 100%. Of course they will be long some of the options, which can be used to offset other short option positions, but this # nonetheless gives a good indication of the trend of the size of the market makers' options delta hedging shares inventory.

This is just a snapshot of how it's changed since the stock split announcement. You can see that at market close before the announcement, the # was at 29.5M shares, and that today it stands at ~53M shares, meaning market makers have collectively added at least millions of shares, quite possible 10M+ shares over the past 5 trading days.

I have yet to hear of even an unproven theory that could explain why naked shorts have to cover in the face of the upcoming stock split. And saying that this squeeze is evidence of it is like saying Antarctica melting is evidence of penguins radiating a lot of heat, and like seeing a bunch of puddles in your garden and saying it is evidence that a bunch of elephants came by and pissed all over it. These are possible explanations for what you're seeing, but there are many more possible explanations that are much more plausible.

 

[SunCatcher]

This is what I've said all along. Most here don't agree. The startups don't have the resources to scale up. Tesla is about to go "commando" on the entire industry and it will be brutal.

It has certainly begun. Juggernaut: definition: - a massive inexorable force, campaign, movement, or object that crushes whatever is in its path..

I am starting to believe that Tesla is uncatchable, and unstoppable. No, really.

 

[astrotoy]

Our powerwall installation is in the local city permitting stage. We are getting a 26% federal tax credit on the powerwalls, and the associated equipment and installation cost. In addition California is giving a separate significant rebate for the powerwalls. Total rebate and tax credit is about 50% of the total cost. We have a Solar City system which we had installed in 2009. Still working fine, although the electrical production is down about 15% from when it was new. It paid for itself in about six years from the electricity savings.

The rationale for the rebate and tax credit from what I understand is to lower the peak demand on the grid, something that is a major issue right now in California with our massive heat wave. The power shifting capability of the power walls is very significant. In addition to changing the demand curve, it also allows us to arbitrage the cost of electricity - charging up the powerwalls from our solar panels and then if necessary at night when the rates are lowest and then using the stored power in the afternoon when the cost of electricity and the demand for power (mostly air conditioning) is highest. We have a friend with a power wall system whose solar panels produce enough energy to power their home almost year round without needing power from the grid.

We also get another big bonus. With the fires in northern California, we had significant power outages last year (and predicted for this and future years) caused by our power company (PG&E) preemptively shutting off power for several days in areas with high winds and potential wild fires. The power walls are a natural backup, taking over almost immediately after the power goes off. During the day time, the powerwall automatically gets recharged from your solar panels, extending the time it can provide power during an outage.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

I continue to believe run-ups like this are mostly due to delta hedging requirements. A small boost to sentiment like strong Q4'19 ER, expectations of and announcement of strong Q2 P&D, and now a stock split, all resulted in a moderate amount of buying pressure, and the reason they led to monster run-ups were in my opinion delta hedging.

This table, brought to us by @generalenthu, calculates the # of shares market makers need to own to be delta neutral, if they have the short side of all options open interest, and delta hedge 100%. Of course they will be long some of the options, which can be used to offset other short option positions, but this # nonetheless gives a good indication of the trend of the size of the market makers' options delta hedging shares inventory.

View attachment 578002

This is just a snapshot of how it's changed since the stock split announcement. You can see that at market close before the announcement, the # was at 29.5M shares, and that today it stands at ~53M shares, meaning market makers have collectively added at least millions of shares, quite possible 10M+ shares over the past 5 trading days.

I have yet to hear of even an unproven theory that could explain why naked shorts have to cover in the face of the upcoming stock split. And saying that this squeeze is evidence of it is like saying Antarctica melting is evidence of penguins radiating a lot of heat, and like seeing a bunch of puddles in your garden and saying it is evidence that a bunch of elephants came by and pissed all it. These are possible explanations for what you're seeing, but there are many more possible explanations that are much more plausible.

That is a cogent argument, that delta hedging caused sustained buying — the price action and volume supports that. Interesting that the theoretical number of shares needed is on the order of magnitude of the number index funds would need on S&P inclusion. Perhaps a preview of what will happen.

This intelligent discussion of the forces at play is why I’m specifically here, even [especially] if there is disagreement. Physicists disagree all the time, and then reassess their position based on the best evidence. There is some of that evidence here, but I don’t discount the naked short theory either, because you know if Elon could do something to screw the shorts, he would.

 

[ADP]

https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1295862767551840256?s=21

View attachment 577992

Can’t find original source yet.

 

[MC3OZ]

It has certainly begun. Juggernaut: definition: - a massive inexorable force, campaign, movement, or object that crushes whatever is in its path..

I am starting to believe that Tesla is uncatchable, and unstoppable. No, really.

I think it is more accurate to say there is no pain free way to get to where Tesla is.

No way of matching Tesla's level of innovation, that doesn't require a lot of great engineering talent.

No way of scaling EV production volumes quickly without the batteries, and no batteries without a lot of planning and commitment.

But if the aim is simply to make EVs that are better than an ICE for around the same money, the Chinese are close and Tesla is close, everyone else who survives will eventually get here...

My guess of future world wide production volumes is something like:-

• Tesla 20%
• China 30%
• Germany 20%
• Korea 15%
• Japan 7%
• Everyone else 8%

Of course the guess could be very wrong. but if they survive I have GM+Ford at around 3-4% at that size, they may as well merge..

I don't think anyone can make a compelling argument why Tesla and China will not get to the numbers I list, they may go higher. In particular, China could be way more dominant.

One group of athletes have been training hard, watching their diet, and improving their technique, Tesla and China. The rest have spent a lot of time lounging around watching TV.

 

[BlackS]

Kia Soul EV Will Not Come to US Market After All - Korean Car Blog

 

[phantasms]

IRS guidance on the solar Federal Tax Credit actually allows you to claim it on Powerwalls alone. The guidance says it can be claimed for battery storage if "installed with solar," which a lot of folks interpreted to mean "installed at the same time." But the IRS clarified that they meant battery storage qualifies if it is connected to a solar panel system.

I'm getting 12.24 kW of Tesla panels installed this month, but I'm also holding off on PWs. Could be PW3 at Battery Day, or they could announce something like a DC-to-DC bidirectional charger that would enable V2G with the current fleet. Or even just a more affordable/longer lasting PW.

Thank you for the heads up. Tesla does take that into account with their pricing. Due to the $5k NY discount and the local utility discount it does make it still cheaper for me to get more solar with the Powerwalls. My only hope is that when I go for it after battery day they'll be able to get it installed before the end of the year.

 

[Hock1]

That is a cogent argument, that delta hedging caused sustained buying — the price action and volume supports that. Interesting that the theoretical number of shares needed is on the order of magnitude of the number index funds would need on S&P inclusion. Perhaps a preview of what will happen.

This intelligent discussion of the forces at play is why I’m specifically here, even [especially] if there is disagreement. Physicists disagree all the time, and then reassess their position based on the best evidence. There is some of that evidence here, but I don’t discount the naked short theory either, because you know if Elon could do something to screw the shorts, he would.

I believe he has.